bcs analysis

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Final 2013 BCS Rankings: Florida State And Auburn Finish Year On Top

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The BCS was never much more than a result of the staples that have long ruled college football — tradition, formality and prestige. Pair teams that should play each other together in a bowl, sure, but make sure they’re also the biggest names.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Florida State Seminoles
2 Auburn Tigers
3 Alabama Crimson Tide
4 Michigan State Spartans
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

As the BCS sings its swan song, habits that seem old — like the SEC always being in the driver’s seat for the national title — are actually recent developments of the BCS era. But in 2013 it looked like there might be a chance to end the streak just before the BCS met its own end.

Then Michigan State stepped in the way. The Spartans topped Ohio State and the SEC’s Auburn will face Florida State in the national title game.

Not only that, but the SEC lands the No. 3 team in the country, Alabama, in another BCS bowl automatically, and ends the year occupying nearly half of the BCS’s top 10.

And so the BCS ends just like it was supposed to — granting 10 berths to 10 teams from the “power” conferences, though the AAC might have lost its claim to power long before it lost its “Big East” name.

The Big 10 and Pac-12 champions will meet in the Rose Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl will feature the Big 12’s champion. And the Sugar Bowl will get the replacement team of its dreams in Alabama. The BCS worked just like it should have, whether you liked it or not. We were just trying to make sense of it as it was handed down.

Some times we could, some times we couldn’t.

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The last-ever BCS rankings:

Final BCS Standings — December 8th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Florida State Seminoles .9957
2 Auburn Tigers .9638
3 Alabama Crimson Tide .9061
4 Michigan State Spartans .8600
5 Stanford Cardinal .8191
6 Baylor Bears .7722
7 Ohio State Buckeyes .7705
8 Missouri Tigers .7256
9 South Carolina Gamecocks .7152
10 Oregon Ducks .5811
11 Oklahoma Sooners .5756
12 Clemson Tigers .5553
13 Oklahoma State Cowboys .5233
14 Arizona State Sun Devils .4416
15 UCF Knights .4343
16 LSU Tigers .4322

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Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Not a great final showing, so be it! This is too much fun to be sad about.
  • Again, we’re looking at a much different BCS Know How moving forward. We’ll figure it out after bowl season, which should actually be a ton of fun. Check out the non-BCS bowl schedule, too, if you’re looking for some interesting action.
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Seventh 2013 BCS Rankings: Ohio State Holds Off Auburn For No. 2

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The BCS just wont go down without a fight. Just more than a week ago we might have been wondering what would happen if we ended the season with four undefeated teams. Now we’re trying to piece together what just happened and explaining how a one-loss team is on the verge of making BCS history.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Florida State Seminoles
2 Ohio State Buckeyes
3 Auburn Tigers
4 Alabama Crimson Tide
5 Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

After Alabama’s reign over college football was seemingly cut down by Auburn things got a bit wonky in the BCS.

Of course, this opened up the No. 1 spot for the first time this season, and fresh from an in-state victory over Florida, Florida State was more than happy to claim its spot atop these seventh BCS rankings.

Then things got interesting. Undefeated Ohio State was supposed to cruise to the No. 2 spot tonight. After all, no undefeated AQ conference team has ever been leapfrogged for a top-two spot in the BCS standings by a once-beaten team. But No. 3 Auburn made the No. 2 Buckeyes sweat for the second position tonight. And both teams will sweat for another week while we chew on the scenarios.

Auburn has Missouri to prepare for, Ohio State has Michigan State on its plate. Wins from both squads next weekend might set up a final chase for the No. 2 spot that will rival any of the best controversy the BCS has had to offer. We can sit back and enjoy it.

The rest of the BCS falls mostly into place as expected. Alabama claims No. 4 with SEC title game-bound Missouri rounding out the top-five. Oklahoma State, in the driver’s seat for a AQ bid for the Big 12, is in at No. 6, and Pac-12 title game combatant Stanford is in at No. 7. South Carolina, Baylor, Arizona State and Michigan State are setting themselves up for BCS eligibility while Oregon and rounds out the top 12.

Northern Illinois is just a win away from a second straight BCS buster bowl bid after entering the top 14 and seeing Fresno State lose at the most inopportune time.

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It’s all come down to one week. Not sure if we’re ready to say goodbye without one final blowout weekend.  Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming week for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the seventh BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week Seven — December 1st

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Florida State Seminoles .9948
2 Ohio State Buckeyes .9503
3 Auburn Tigers .9233
4 Alabama Crimson Tide .8539
5 Missouri Tigers .8428
6 Oklahoma State Cowboys .7629
7 Stanford Cardinal .7069
8 South Carolina Gamecocks .7037
9 Baylor Bears .6623
10 Michigan State Spartans .6529
11 Arizona State Sun Devils .5833
12 Oregon Ducks .5321
13 Clemson Tigers .5201
14 Northern Illinois Huskies .4812
15 LSU Tigers .4213
16 UCF Knights .3838

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Some thoughts:

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Fourth 2013 BCS Rankings: No. 2 Florida State Solidifies Its Stake

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Can a top-five team beating another top-five team truly be considered an upset? Whether the answer is yes or no, Stanford’s victory over Oregon is felt strongly throughout the fourth BCS standings, most notably as Florida State stakes the nation’s strongest claim to No. 2 yet.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Baylor Bears
Scroll down for more

After much hair-pulling about whether Oregon or Florida State would finish the season at No. 2 if they won out, it was the Ducks’ faltering on a Thursday night that ended the debate.

Of course, Florida State is far from completing an undefeated run through its schedule, but for now, the Seminoles look like they’re in the driver’s seat for a title game bid, along with the prohibitive favorite Alabama.

The next debate, in the final year of the debate era of college football (also known as the BCS), is who would replace the Seminoles if they were to falter. The BCS, and the country at large, has elected new No. 3 Ohio State for that position. But there are plenty of teams on the tail of the Buckeyes, starting with No. 4 Stanford and No. 5 Baylor.

Yes, the once-beaten Cardinal out pace the undefeated Bears because of their strong support in the computers after beating Oregon. Baylor, which was able to beat top-10 Oklahoma on Thursday, is still lagging in the computer component, and is hurting because of it.

Elsewhere, the BCS buster potential grows this week, as No. 14 Fresno State and No. 15 Northern Illinois continue to climb. They both remain ahead of the top AAC team, UCF, which would allow an automatic bid for a non-AQ team, and the Bulldogs and Huskies are vying for just that.

There’s plenty still to come in this season. Four more sets of these will tell the final story of the 2013 college football season.

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With just four weeks of BCS rankings left ever, we’re in the home stretch. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fourth BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week Four — November 10th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9958
2 Florida State Seminoles .9619
3 Ohio State Buckeyes .8926
4 Stanford Cardinal .8689
5 Baylor Bears .8618
6 Oregon Ducks .7665
7 Auburn Tigers .7206
8 Clemson Tigers .7200
9 Missouri Tigers .7118
10 South Carolina Gamecocks .5584
11 Texas A&M Aggies .5473
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys .4671
13 UCLA Bruins .4548
14 Fresno State Bulldogs .4317
15 Northern Illinois Huskies .3505
16 Michigan State Spartans .3417

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Some thoughts:

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Second 2013 BCS Rankings: Oregon Laps Florida State For No. 2 After One Week

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The fight at the top of the BCS rankings got a little less competitive just one week after Oregon lagged behind Florida State by just .003 in the BCS for No. 2 last week.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

Yes, after one week of simmering controversy over the fact that Florida State was No. 2 in the BCS but No. 3 in both polls, Oregon storms right ahead of the Seminoles for the No. 2 spot. And it’s not nearly as close this week.

A strong showing in the computers gives Oregon the No. 2 spot by more than .030, more than 10 times the lead Florida State had last weekend. Can Florida State make up that ground? That’ll be the question moving forward.

After Missouri’s loss this weekend, we were expecting some shifting in the next part of the BCS, but unexpectedly, Stanford’s showing across the board was enough to push the one-loss Cardinal past undefeated Baylor to No. 5, while Baylor rests at No. 6. Baylor was largely unable to close the gap on Stanford in the computers, lagging .19 behind the Cardinal in the computer aggregate, which was enough to give Stanford No. 5.

Miami bows at No. 7, Clemson is in at No. 8 and Missouri falls only four spots to No. 9 after losing to South Carolina, which themselves climbs a handful of spots, but nearly as many as we had anticipated.

Oklahoma is back into the top-10 at No. 10, while Auburn is steady at No. 11 and Texas A&M rounds out the top 12 after climbing four impressive spots in one week.

Of interest — No. 16 Fresno State stays one spot ahead of No. 17 Northern Illinois for the second straight week, as expected. Can the Bulldogs hold off the Huskies in a year where a BCS buster seems all the more likely? It’ll be a chase to the spot if both finish undefeated.

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With just six weeks of BCS rankings left ever, we’re in the most important stretch of the season. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the second BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week Two — October 27th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9937
2 Oregon Ducks .9517
3 Florida State Seminoles .9211
4 Ohio State Buckeyes .8840
5 Stanford Cardinal .7918
6 Baylor Bears .7645
7 Miami Hurricanes .7560
8 Clemson Tigers .6687
9 Missouri Tigers .6096
10 Oklahoma Sooners .6064
11 Auburn Tigers .6025
12 Texas A&M Aggies .4812
13 LSU Tigers .4630
14 South Carolina Gamecocks .4486
15 Texas Tech Red Raiders .3749
16 Fresno State Bulldogs .3669

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Some thoughts:

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First 2013 BCS Rankings: Alabama & FSU Lead Gang Into The Final Year

 

biggerbcslogoJust one BCS standings in and we already have a rumble at the top on our hands — the BCS isn’t going to leave without a fight.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

As expected, No. 2 Florida State  and No. 2 Oregon bunch together tightly in the race for the No. 2 spot in the inaugural BCS standings of 2013, both chasing convincing No. 1 Alabama.

The Seminoles’ victory over Clemson combined with Oregon’s long-standing position as the nation’s No. 2 team conspired to provide us with some real drama that could continue to play out the rest of the season if the two squads continue to win.

Oregon remained at No. 2 in the polls, but Florida State took full advantage of some major upsets around the board, grabbing the best computer support in the country and No. 3 in both the Coaches’ and Harris polls. For now, Florida State lands just .0028 ahead of Oregon.

If Florida State had received even a .01 smaller share of the computer rankings, Oregon would have been your No. 2 team this week.

But what if the Ducks and Seminoles don’t keep winning? The first BCS standings have given us a window into what we could expect. Ohio State’s almost quiet No. 4 comes as no surprise, as the Buckeyes have run through the early part of the season undefeated.

No. 5 Missouri and No. 8 Baylor are some of the handful of surprises in the first set of BCS rankings, as is No. 7 Miami. All three teams were the beneficiaries of the upset-filled weekend, and Missouri carries a very strong computer ranking into the BCS part of the season.

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We’re in the home stretch now, believe it or not. Just seven weeks left of the BCS. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the first BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week One — October 20th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9841
2 Florida State Seminoles .9348
3 Oregon Ducks .9320
4 Ohio State Buckeyes .8553
5 Missouri Tigers .8219
6 Stanford Cardinal .7414
7 Miami Hurricanes .7200
8 Baylor Bears .7120
9 Clemson Tigers .6249
10 Texas Tech Red Raiders .6220
11 Auburn Tigers .5058
12 UCLA Bruins .4807
13 LSU Tigers .4552
14 Virginia Tech Hokies .4408
15 Oklahoma Sooners .4204
16 Texas A&M Aggies .3666

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Some thoughts:

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Final BCS Rankings of 2012: Notre Dame and Alabama Finish On Top But Northern Illinois Steals The Show

The drama had seemingly been sucked out of the final weekend of the college football season until we figured out that a borderline non-AQ BCS buster was still possible. Still many were wary.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Florida Gators
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Kansas State Wildcats
Scroll down for more

But then things started falling Northern Illinois’s way. After the Huskies grabbed the MAC championship from Kent State’s clutches in overtime, they sat at home and watched UCLA and Texas lose. Then they saw the thing that proved most key — Nebraska get crushed by Wisconsin.

Those things, combined with the requisite boost the Huskies got for beating previously No. 17 Kent State put the Huskies at No. 15 this week. And as we learned these last few days, that was the threshold. Finishing ahead of the Big East’s BCS representative, No. 21 Louisville, Northern Illinois is Orange Bowl bound, where the Huskies will take on Florida State.

Elsewhere the tension was somewhat minimal. As expected, undefeated Notre Dame is on its way to the BCS title game, where the Fighting Irish will find SEC champion Alabama waiting.

Conference champions Wisconsin, Stanford and Kansas State found themselves in their anchor bowls, joined by at-large Florida — the beneficiary an automatic rule including the top-ranked AQ non-champion — and at-large Oregon.

All part of the BCS’s now teenage plan to combine bowl affiliations and numbers to rank and distribute games during bowl season’s final week. Worked out pretty interestingly this year. We’ve got one more of these ahead of us. It’s been fun, now let’s enjoy bowl season.

Here are the final BCS rankings of 2012:

Final BCS Standings — December 2nd

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .9978
2 Alabama Crimson Tide .9441
3 Florida Gators .8984
4 Oregon Ducks .8621
5 Kansas State Wildcats .8226
6 Stanford Cardinal .7683
7 Georgia Bulldogs .7583
8 LSU Tigers .7511
9 Texas A&M Aggies .6756
10 South Carolina Gamecocks .6604
11 Oklahoma Sooners .6502
12 Florida State Seminoles .5047
13 Oregon State Beavers .4716
14 Clemson Tigers .4693
15 Northern Illinois Huskies .3276
16 Nebraska Cornhuskers .3264

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Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • The glaring oversight is of course at No. 16, where NIU lands a key one spot above where they needed to be.
    • Many shared that omission, but shout out to Yesh Ginsberg, who stood out and correctly predicted that NIU would have a simple time qualifying for the BCS, which they did.
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Seventh BCS Rankings of 2012: BCS Busters Make The Story While Notre Dame Holds No. 1 Into Season’s Final Weekend

With the drama seemingly run dry in the previous two weeks, the next to last BCS rankings of the season holds few surprises — but there’s plenty to be found if you look close enough.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Georgia Bulldogs
4 Florida Gators
5 Oregon Ducks
Scroll down for more

That simple equation we’ve been talking about — Notre Dame and the SEC champion for the BCS title game — is all but written in stone. With Notre Dame’s season-ending victory over USC, the Fighting Irish land at No. 1 in this week’s BCS rankings, and will land there again next weekend.

No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia will play in a de facto national semifinal game in the SEC Championship. Florida lands in the No. 4 spot just behind Georgia. But fret not Bulldog and Crimson Tide faithful, win the SEC and you’re in — much like it’s been these last few years.

Further down, No. 5 Oregon and No. 6 Kansas State lead a group of small changes in the BCS’s top 10 this weekend, as what was expected after a rivalry weekend full of ranked matchups whittled the field down.

So pretty bland at the top. But little further down the intrigue for yet another non-AQ BCS buster bid is in store.

Three teams — No. 17 Kent State, No. 20 Boise State and No. 21 Northern Illinois — are all within striking distance of the top 16. A spot inside the BCS’s top 16 will mean an automatic bid to a BCS this year, as the Big East’s champion will land outside the top 16, activating a clause in the BCS to include a deserving non-AQ team in the BCS process.

Although none of the three are in the mix this weekend, Northern Illinois and Kent State are set to battle for the MAC title next weekend, the winner hoping to get associated BCS bump with a win over another ranked team. A Kent State win might give the Golden Flashes just enough to claim that elusive BCS bid. Northern Illinois will need some help if they are victorious.

Boise State is doomed by its poor computer showing, and will likely not be able to crack the top 16.

Next weekend could also solidify most, if not all, of the BCS spots. Here is what’s in store:

  • The ACC Championship Game will feature Florida State and Georgia Tech. The winner is headed for the Orange Bowl.
  • The Big East will be decided Thursday when Louisville and Rutgers face off. The winner is guaranteed a BCS bowl bid.
  • The Big Ten Championship Game will feature Nebraska and Wisconsin. The winner is headed for the Rose Bowl.
  • The Big 12 will come down to Kansas State and Oklahoma. A Kansas State win over Texas gives the Wildcats the conference championship and a Fiesta Bowl bid. It also likely another Oklahoma win gives the Sooners at least an at-large spot. An Oklahoma win combined with a Kansas State loss gives Oklahoma a Fiesta Bowl bid with the conference title.
  • The Pac-12 Championship Game will feature Stanford and UCLA. The winner is headed for the Rose Bowl.
  • The SEC Championship Game will feature Georgia and Alabama. The winner is likely headed for the BCS title game. If Alabama wins, Florida is all but guaranteed a Sugar Bowl bid. If Georgia wins, either Alabama or Florida is likely Sugar Bowl bound.
  • The MAC Championship game will feature Northern Illinois and Kent State. The winner could vie for a BCS bid, needing to finish in the top 16 to make a BCS bowl.
  • As it stands, explore our projected BCS bowls. 
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It all comes down to this final weekend. Though we can be pretty sure about a lot, there’s almost nothing guaranteed other than Notre Dame’s bid in the title game. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout this final week for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the seventh BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Seven — November 25th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .9979
2 Alabama Crimson Tide .9236
3 Georgia Bulldogs .8911
4 Florida Gators .8882
5 Oregon Ducks .8626
6 Kansas State Wildcats .7735
7 LSU Tigers .7357
8 Stanford Cardinal .7299
9 Texas A&M Aggies .6861
10 Florida State Seminoles .6689
11 Oklahoma Sooners .6129
12 Nebraska Cornhuskers .5393
13 Florida State Seminoles .4645
14 Clemson Tigers .4570
15 Oregon State Beavers .3790
16 UCLA Bruins .3304

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Some thoughts:

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Sixth BCS Rankings of 2012: No. 1 Notre Dame, No. 2 Alabama Ride High As Season Chaotically Winds Down

Let it never be said the BCS didn’t give us drama.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Georgia Bulldogs
4 Florida Gators
5 Oregon Ducks
Scroll down for more

With a clear-cut, simple equation for the BCS title game seemingly resting on the table just a weekend ago, the events of late Saturday night threw the BCS back into chaos, and now promises us yet another drama-filled final two weekends of college football.

Losses by Kansas State and Oregon open the BCS up again and Notre Dame proves the one to take advantage, as the Irish claim their first-ever BCS No. 1 ranking in the sixth iteration of the rankings in 2012.

Alabama, thought to be out of the running just a week ago, is now squarely back in the title picture at No. 2, needing just to win out to get back to the title game again. In order to win out, however, the once-beaten Tide will have to contend with No. 3 Georgia, which claimed that spot in both polls Sunday afternoon.

Georgia’s spot outside the top two is a moot point if the Bulldogs can win next weekend and then beat the Crimson Tide. Georgia will be BCS title game bound if they beat No. 2 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

The SEC rounds out the top four with Florida, boosted by a strong computer ranking to No. 4. Florida is still hoping for some upset ahead of them, but have set themselves up nicely for a BCS bowl bid, either by virtue of their single loss or by the BCS selection process that would select the Gators for a BCS bowl if they finish as No. 3 and the SEC champion plays for the BCS title.

Now-once-beaten Oregon and Kansas State land at No. 5 and No. 6 respectively, with Oregon hampered by an already poor computer aggregate before their first loss and Kansas State bolstered by computer support that didn’t waver much despite a tough loss to Baylor.

The SEC is back at it again at No. 7, as LSU grabs the distinction as highest-ranked two-loss team in the nation. Just behind the Tigers sit the newly top-10 Stanford Cardinal. Stanford lands firmly inside the top 10 after a victory over Oregon this weekend.

Texas A&M restarts the SEC conga line at No. 9, with No. 12 South Carolina rounding out the unprecedented presence of the SEC in the BCS top 12.

Florida State still languishes at No. 10 despite huge support on the poll side, with Clemson equally getting hammered by  the computers.

So. Two weeks sure to be drama-filled and heart breaking for some remain. We’re far from done with the BCS, the season or the various implications that will be in store for the weekends to come. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout these final few weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the sixth BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Six — November 18th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .9973
2 Alabama Crimson Tide .9333
3 Georgia Bulldogs .8763
4 Florida Gators .8434
5 Oregon Ducks .8318
6 Kansas State Wildcats .7692
7 LSU Tigers .7308
8 Stanford Cardinal .7077
9 Texas A&M Aggies .6526
10 Florida State Seminoles .6363
11 Clemson Tigers .6056
12 South Carolina Gamecocks .5871
13 Oklahoma Sooners .5677
14 Nebraska Cornhuskers .4790
15 Oregon State Beavers .4499
16 Texas Longhorns .4235

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Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Some good, some bad. Top four, which are the important ones, were good. A mixed bag moving down. The real thing to key on is Florida State’s continued lag. It’s real and it’s here to stay unless the Seminoles can top the Gators.
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Fifth BCS Rankings of 2012: Kansas State Replaces Alabama As No. 1 With Oregon At No. 2

The streak is officially on life support. For the first time in seven years, we could have a team from outside the SEC win the BCS national championship game. That’s the result of a weekend that set the BCS standings on shuffle with just three sets of these remaining.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Kansas State Wildcats
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Alabama Crimson Tide
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

The Big 12’s Kansas State claims the top spot in the fifth BCS rankings of the 2012 season, followed by No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Notre Dame.

Support as the No. 1 team in both polls is not enough to bring Oregon the coveted No. 1 spot, as despite being ranked No. 2 in both the Coaches’ and Harris polls, Kansas State uses a near-perfect computer score to claim the top spot.

Notre Dame too grabs strong computer support, but can’t overcoming the difference between themselves and Oregon to grab the No. 2 slot. The Fighting Irish are definitively on the outside looking in on the title picture, and will need either the Wildcats or Ducks to drop a game in the coming weeks to get a chance at the national title.

It’s not until No. 4 Alabama, fallen from its perch after a crushing loss to Texas A&M, that we see the SEC’s footprint. And though Alabama’s appearance foretells an unprecedented group that follows — six squads from the conference occupying the spots from No. 4 to No. 9 — a bigger-picture reality is now clear.

Without some real help, the SEC could be locked out of the title game, that much is clear. The unbeatens ahead of Alabama and its SEC compatriots have too strong of a foothold with just three weekends left in the year. A conference that battle tested its champions week-in and week-out while seemingly able to produce one emergent team from a heap might have beaten up on itself a little too much in 2012.

But as we learned this weekend, you can take nothing for granted, and nothing is for certain. We’re far from done with the BCS, the season or the various implications that will be in store for the weekends to come. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout these final few weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fifth BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Five — November 11th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Kansas State Wildcats .9674
2 Oregon Ducks .9497
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .9396
4 Alabama Crimson Tide .8534
5 Georgia Bulldogs .8328
6 Florida Gators .7955
7 LSU Tigers .7331
8 Texas A&M Aggies .6621
9 South Carolina Gamecocks .6349
10 Florida State Seminoles .6071
11 Clemson Tigers .5921
12 Oklahoma Sooners .5797
13  Stanford Cardinal .5705
14 Nebraska Cornhuskers .4679
15 Texas Longhorns .4259
16 Oregon State Beavers .4161

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Some thoughts:

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Fourth BCS Rankings of 2012: Oregon Passes Notre Dame, Sets Sights on No. 2 Kansas State

Winning finally paid for Oregon this week, as the Ducks finally make an upward move in the fourth BCS standings of the season, rising one spot, from No. 4 to No. 3 and past Notre Dame.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

Oregon continues to trail No. 2 Kansas State and No. 1 Alabama, but Kansas State’s position is precarious at best.

Gains in all three components of the BCS — the Harris Poll, Coaches’ Poll and BCS computers — allowed Oregon to sneak past the Fighting Irish and the Ducks can now set their sights on the Wildcats.

Already ahead of Kansas State in the two human elements, the Ducks will look to their schedule and some computer help to make up the ground they need to get into the top two slots and the berth in the national title game that comes along with it. The distance that separates the two teams now is the .09 advantage the Wildcats enjoy in the computers through the fourth BCS standings.

Georgia rounds out the BCS top five, taking the spot of LSU, which would have been the story of the weekend had the Ducks not put away USC and finally grew their support to the point where the Ducks finally saw a growth in support and a shrinking of rankings number.

An interesting group of teams follows the Bulldogs — one which includes the twice-beaten Tigers. Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Florida State, and Louisville land in an area enviable by most — an area of BCS bowl eligibility. Sure, only two SEC teams can be BCS bound, and one of them is likely to be Alabama, but the teams that land in the top 10 with just four sets of these remaining will jockey to the season’s end.

Undefeated Louisville continues to loom, in at No. 9 this week, while Oregon State and Oklahoma round out the top 12. Clemson and Stanford land inside the all-important top 14, the threshold for BCS eligibility, exasperated this year by the glut of SEC squads among the nations’ best.

Four weeks in and four weeks to go, no questions are solidly answered. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fourth BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Four — November 4th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9957
2 Kansas State Wildcats .9318
3 Oregon Ducks .9166
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .9050
5 Georgia Bulldogs .8171
6 Florida Gators .7863
7 LSU Tigers .7054
8 South Carolina Gamecocks .6206
9 Louisville Cardinals .6040
10 Florida State Seminoles .5969
11 Oregon State Beavers .5965
12 Oklahoma Sooners .5812
13 Clemson Tigers .5772
14 Stanford Cardinal .5086
15 Texas A&M Aggies .5060
16 Nebraska Cornhuskers .3976

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Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Good until 11. Again. Thought the lack of strength from Oregon State against Arizona State would knock them down one, but steady week-to-week.