Projected BCS Standings: Baylor Can Make Its Move In Fifth BCS Standings of 2013

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Funny how one week’s marquee victory can mean far less given the next weekend’s results. Stanford, a one-loss team that seemingly had it all — an early loss, a big win over a conference rival and top-10 team, and a high BCS ranking above undefeated teams — was unable to hold off USC at the Coliseum, and sees its already slim BCS title hopes falter.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Baylor Bears
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Oregon Ducks
Scroll down for more

Though the Stanford loss is intriguing, especially given the way the Pac-12 could resolve itself this season, the real drama will come at the No. 3 spot.

Baylor will finally see its odd stalling behind a one-loss teams come to an end and will move up. But how far? Can the Bears take the No. 3 spot?

The debate is now front and center. Is Baylor or Ohio State the best replacement pick for a national title game should Alabama or Florida State lose?

The fascinating thing is this — with Stanford’s loss, a lot of computer support becomes readily available for Baylor. As does human poll support. Some team is going to have to pick up those pieces and Ohio State chose the wrong weekend to win ugly against Illinois.

Much of that voter confidence will go Baylor’s way, especially after the Bears posted more than 60 points against formerly hot Texas Tech. And, Baylor already had some computer ground left to make up. This might be the weekend the Bears do it.

So can Baylor take No. 3? We’ll say yes.

Also, added bonus — four top teams, all undefeated? Sounds like a ringing endorsement for the College Football Playoff, right?

The one-loss squads with something to prove, including Oregon and Auburn, will come next. Don’t be surprised to see Auburn make a run at the No. 5 spot, which we’re projecting will be filled by Oregon. Though the Tigers might come up a bit short, a win over high competition like Georgia is likely to net Auburn some ground. Plus, with the ranks of the truly elite teams dwindling, now is the time to take a look at the broader picture

Clemson and Missouri, along with Stanford, will likely make up the rest of the top nine, as last week’s No. 10 South Carolina trailed significantly in its hope to breaking into the top 10.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Five (November 17th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Baylor Bears
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Oregon Ducks
6 Auburn Tigers
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Missouri Tigers
9 Stanford Cardinal
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Texas A&M Aggies
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys
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BCS Computer Rankings Week Five: Notre Dame Regains Top Spot Among Computers

More to come.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Five (November 11)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 Kansas St. Kansas St. Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame
2 Notre Dame Notre Dame Florida Kansas Kansas St. Kansas St.
3 Florida Oregon Kansas St. Florida  Florida Florida
4 Oregon Alabama Alabama Oregon Georgia Oregon
5 Alabama Georgia Oregon Alabama Oregon St. Alabama
6 Georiga Florida Georgia LSU LSU Georgia

And the aggregate BCS computer rankings:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week Five (November 11)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .990
2 Kansas State Wildcats .970
3 Florida Gators .920
4 Oregon Ducks .870
5 Alabama Crimson Tide .850
6 Georgia Bulldogs .810
7 LSU Tigers .770
8 Texas A&M Aggies .690
8 South Carolina Gamecocks .690
10 Oklahoma Sooners .630
11 Stanford Cardinal .610
12 Oregon State Beavers .540

Fifth BCS Rankings of 2012: Kansas State Replaces Alabama As No. 1 With Oregon At No. 2

The streak is officially on life support. For the first time in seven years, we could have a team from outside the SEC win the BCS national championship game. That’s the result of a weekend that set the BCS standings on shuffle with just three sets of these remaining.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Kansas State Wildcats
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Alabama Crimson Tide
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

The Big 12’s Kansas State claims the top spot in the fifth BCS rankings of the 2012 season, followed by No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Notre Dame.

Support as the No. 1 team in both polls is not enough to bring Oregon the coveted No. 1 spot, as despite being ranked No. 2 in both the Coaches’ and Harris polls, Kansas State uses a near-perfect computer score to claim the top spot.

Notre Dame too grabs strong computer support, but can’t overcoming the difference between themselves and Oregon to grab the No. 2 slot. The Fighting Irish are definitively on the outside looking in on the title picture, and will need either the Wildcats or Ducks to drop a game in the coming weeks to get a chance at the national title.

It’s not until No. 4 Alabama, fallen from its perch after a crushing loss to Texas A&M, that we see the SEC’s footprint. And though Alabama’s appearance foretells an unprecedented group that follows — six squads from the conference occupying the spots from No. 4 to No. 9 — a bigger-picture reality is now clear.

Without some real help, the SEC could be locked out of the title game, that much is clear. The unbeatens ahead of Alabama and its SEC compatriots have too strong of a foothold with just three weekends left in the year. A conference that battle tested its champions week-in and week-out while seemingly able to produce one emergent team from a heap might have beaten up on itself a little too much in 2012.

But as we learned this weekend, you can take nothing for granted, and nothing is for certain. We’re far from done with the BCS, the season or the various implications that will be in store for the weekends to come. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout these final few weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fifth BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Five — November 11th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Kansas State Wildcats .9674
2 Oregon Ducks .9497
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .9396
4 Alabama Crimson Tide .8534
5 Georgia Bulldogs .8328
6 Florida Gators .7955
7 LSU Tigers .7331
8 Texas A&M Aggies .6621
9 South Carolina Gamecocks .6349
10 Florida State Seminoles .6071
11 Clemson Tigers .5921
12 Oklahoma Sooners .5797
13  Stanford Cardinal .5705
14 Nebraska Cornhuskers .4679
15 Texas Longhorns .4259
16 Oregon State Beavers .4161

Some thoughts:

Projected BCS Standings: Kansas State to Claim Top Spot in Fifth BCS Rankings of 2012

While you can’t erase six years of dominance in one weekend, it’s certainly a shock to the system.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Kansas State Wildcats
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Alabama Crimson Tide
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

Yes, for the first time in more than two years, no SEC team will occupy one of the top two spots in tomorrow’s BCS rankings, as Kansas State and Oregon will claim those distinctions tomorrow.

That’s just what Alabama’s loss to Texas A&M as the season enters its home stretch will do, as a shakeup is in store for the BCS.

But perhaps more importantly, the shift in the BCS tide could mean a non-SEC BCS champion, breaking the conference’s dominating six-year run at claiming the BCS’s crown. Year after year the SEC was able to produce one contender from the heap that the conference seemed to create, but this year, Texas A&M might have delivered the final blow in a series of knockouts traded inside the conference, one that would spell the end of the streak.

Alabama will land just behind the three remaining undefeated eligible squads tomorrow, and just ahead of once-beaten Georgia. Given the lack of SEC strength in the top two spots, spots four through nine will be all SEC, all the time. Alabama and Georgia lead a contingent of SEC squads that is seemingly endless. But despite the dominance in sheer numbers, that top spot might remain elusive the rest of the way home.

Florida State, still struggling with poor computer showings, lands at No. 10, with the surprising Clemson and the steady Oklahoma rounding out the top 12.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Five (November 11th)

Rank Team
1 Kansas State Wildcats
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Alabama Crimson Tide
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 Florida Gators
7 LSU Tigers
8 Texas A&M Aggies
9 South Carolina Gamecocks
10 Florida State Seminoles
11 Oklahoma Sooners
12 Clemson Tigers

BCS Computer Rankings Week Six: LSU Alone at the Top

LSU claims a perfect computer score after all the pieces around them falter.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Six (November 20)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU
2 Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St. Alabama Alabama
3 Alabama Alabama Alabama Alabama Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St.
4 Arkansas Stanford Oklahoma Arkansas Arkansas Arkansas
5 Kansas St. Arkansas Kansas St. Kansas St. Kansas St. Kansas St.
6 Oklahoma Oregon Arkansas Oklahoma Oklahoma Oklahoma

And what the aggregate BCS computer rankings were:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week Six (November 20)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1 LSU Tigers 1.000
2 Oklahoma State Cowboys .950
3 Alabama Crimson Tide .930
4 Arkansas Razorbacks .870
5 Kansas State Wildcats .840
6 Oklahoma Sooners .800
7 Virginia Tech Hokies .710
8 Boise State Broncos .690
9 Stanford Cardinal .660
10 South Carolina Gamecocks .620
11 Oregon Ducks .600
12 Houston Cougars .560

BCS Computer Rankings Week Five: Oregon Gets A Post-Stanford Boost

LSU and Oklahoma St. remain atop the computer rankings, each receiving three of the six top spots, good for a .980 aggregate score.

Oregon jumps all the way into a tie for No. 4 among the computers after its victory over Stanford, allowing it to boost itself into the four-spot in this week’s BCS rankings.

Arkansas is continuing to slowly creep its way into the top of the computers, holding a .800 aggregate as it tries to get by the other one-loss teams ahead of it.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Five (November 13)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 Oklahoma St. LSU Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St. LSU LSU
2 LSU Oklahoma St. LSU LSU Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St.
3 Alabama Oregon Oklahoma Alabama Alabama Alabama
4 Oklahoma Alabama Alabama Oklahoma Oregon Oregon
5 Oregon Oklahoma Oregon Arkansas Arkansas Oklahoma
6 Arkansas Stanford Kansas St. Kansas St. Oklahoma Arkansas

And what the aggregate BCS computer rankings were:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week Five (November 13)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1t Oklahoma State Cowboys .980
1t LSU Tigers .980
3 Alabama Crimson Tide .910
4t Oregon Ducks .860
4t Oklahoma Sooners .860
6 Arkansas Razorbacks .800
7 Kansas State Wildcats .770
8 Clemson Tigers .670
9 Virginia Tech Hokies .640
10 South Carolina Gamecocks .630
11 Stanford Cardinal .620
12 Boise State Broncos .610

Fifth BCS Rankings of 2011: Oregon Up To No. 4 While Boise State, Stanford Tumble

Just when we thought we might have it figured out, more wrenches were thrown into the BCS mix in week 11, allowing for more upheaval and change in the most recent BCS standings.

Losses by formerly undefeated Stanford and Boise State sent both teams tumbling into the lower half of the top 10 this week, while Oregon’s victory over the Cardinal boosted the Ducks to a No. 4 spot. All but disregarded in the computers until last weekend, Oregon now sits pretty in both the human and computer elements, bowing at fourth in all three components.

Re-entry into the BCS title conversation was on tap for Oklahoma, Oregon and Arkansas this weekend as a result of the newest set of rankings, as the three make up the pack chasing LSU, Oklahoma State and Alabama, stagnant from a week ago.

Oklahoma stays ahead of Arkansas on the strength of consistent support from both the computers and human elements, which both favor the Sooners’ track record over that of the Razorbacks. Fair or not, both will have the chance to prove their worth in the coming weeks against the top two teams in the nation.

The ACC duo of Clemson and Virginia Tech land behind the title conversation group, followed by Stanford — punished severely for a disappointing loss to the Ducks at home.

Boise State rounds out the top 10, out of the title picture, and perhaps out of the BCS bowl picture, with Houston having the much easier road to its own conference championship, and in turn, an automatic bid at a BCS bowl as part of the stipulations for non-AQ conferences.

Here’s the fifth BCS rankings of 2011. Analysis shortly:

BCS Standings Week Five — November 13

Rank Team BCS Score
1 LSU Tigers .9933
2 Oklahoma State Cowboys .9642
3 Alabama Crimson Tide .9009
4 Oregon Ducks .8775
5 Oklahoma Sooners .8400
6 Arkansas Razorbacks .7974
7 Clemson Tigers .6935
8 Virginia Tech Hokies .6755
9 Stanford Cardinal .6747
10 Boise State Broncos .5959
11 Houston Cougars .5673
12 South Carolina Gamecocks .5278
13 Kansas State Wildcats .4965
14 Georgia Bulldogs .4528
15 Michigan State Spartans .4393
16 Nebraska Cornhuskers .3817

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCSvs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Not a bad week, switched Virginia Tech and Clemson. I think I might have some sort of latent bias for Virginia Tech… keep giving them more than I should. But otherwise, not too bad. Also should have seen Boise State staying ahead of Houston. Not the best call.