Projected 2014 BCS Bowls — December 1

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The BCS always did cause lively debates, most of which were reliant upon projections. That’s why a site like this could even exist. What would happen if a team won out? Or if a top team lost?

BCS Bowl Projections
Bowl Matchup
Title Game Florida State vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl Stanford vs. Michigan State
Sugar Bowl Auburn vs. UCF
Orange Bowl Clemson vs. Alabama
Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma State vs. NIU
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As the season comes to an end and the unexpected does happen — Florida State is the No. 1 team in the country, Auburn beats Alabama on a returned field goal with no time remaining — things begin to become less about the projection and more about the on-field performance.

Prove your team is better. The BCS bowls give teams the last chance to do that. Where do these great squads belong when the season ends?

BCS National Championship Game: Florida State Seminoles (BCS No. 1) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (BCS No. 2)

Comment: When the season plays out like it has, traditional powers like Ohio State and Florida State seem to often take advantage. Sure, if Auburn is to win the SEC next weekend they’ll feel like the BCS was created specifically to leave the Tigers out, having already been left cold in 2004. For now it seems like these two teams — save for the conference title games they’re still yet to play — have done all they can to earn these spots.

Rose Bowl: Stanford Cardinal (Pac-12 champion) vs. Michigan State Spartans (At-large selection)

Comment: With Ohio State BCS title game bound, the Rose Bowl would normally look to the Big Ten’s roster of highly ranked teams for a replacement. The problem, especially after Wisconsin dropped its best shot at securing a at-large bid against Penn State, is that there aren’t many of those around this year. Michigan State has a shot to remain in at-large contention, but they’ll have to make a strong statement against Ohio State in the conference title game to keep these hopes alive and stay in the top 14 at season’s end if they lose.

Sugar Bowl: Auburn Tigers (SEC champion) vs. UCF Knights (AAC champion)

Comment: Amazing to see the ‘SEC champ’ title go next to the Sugar Bowl selection, isn’t it? For years we’ve seen the SEC champion head straight to the BCS title game, no questions asked. Of course, the Sugar Bowl turned around each year and took a replacement pick from the conference to fulfill its regional preference. But if Auburn misses out on the title game, they’re slotted here automatically. And with the second ‘draft’ pick among at-large picks, the Sugar will have to give AAC champ UCF a serious look so as to not select Northern Illinois.

Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers (At-large selection) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (At-large selection)

Comment: Does the Orange Bowl actually have the guts to bypass the ACC? Clemson’s loss to South Carolina might allow the bowl to do that, and select somewhat underwhelming, but powerful, Oregon. The chance to pair the Ducks with Alabama might present itself if ACC champ Florida State is title game bound as expected. But can the Orange Bowl really afford it? For now, a two-loss Tigers team probably gets the choice over two-loss Oregon and once-beaten Baylor.

Fiesta Bowl: Northern Illinois Huskies (At-large selection) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Big 12 champion)

Comment: A Big 12 that has been unpredictable and a whole lot of fun to watch is finally winding down with Oklahoma State holding poll position. All the Cowboys need to do is top Oklahoma in Bedlam next weekend to grab this spot. Though facing Northern Illinois might not be the reward the Cowboys are looking for, the Huskies have played a strong followup season after making a BCS bowl last year and a win next week all but assures them of a return trip.

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Fourth 2013 BCS Rankings: No. 2 Florida State Solidifies Its Stake

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Can a top-five team beating another top-five team truly be considered an upset? Whether the answer is yes or no, Stanford’s victory over Oregon is felt strongly throughout the fourth BCS standings, most notably as Florida State stakes the nation’s strongest claim to No. 2 yet.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Baylor Bears
Scroll down for more

After much hair-pulling about whether Oregon or Florida State would finish the season at No. 2 if they won out, it was the Ducks’ faltering on a Thursday night that ended the debate.

Of course, Florida State is far from completing an undefeated run through its schedule, but for now, the Seminoles look like they’re in the driver’s seat for a title game bid, along with the prohibitive favorite Alabama.

The next debate, in the final year of the debate era of college football (also known as the BCS), is who would replace the Seminoles if they were to falter. The BCS, and the country at large, has elected new No. 3 Ohio State for that position. But there are plenty of teams on the tail of the Buckeyes, starting with No. 4 Stanford and No. 5 Baylor.

Yes, the once-beaten Cardinal out pace the undefeated Bears because of their strong support in the computers after beating Oregon. Baylor, which was able to beat top-10 Oklahoma on Thursday, is still lagging in the computer component, and is hurting because of it.

Elsewhere, the BCS buster potential grows this week, as No. 14 Fresno State and No. 15 Northern Illinois continue to climb. They both remain ahead of the top AAC team, UCF, which would allow an automatic bid for a non-AQ team, and the Bulldogs and Huskies are vying for just that.

There’s plenty still to come in this season. Four more sets of these will tell the final story of the 2013 college football season.

With just four weeks of BCS rankings left ever, we’re in the home stretch. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fourth BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week Four — November 10th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9958
2 Florida State Seminoles .9619
3 Ohio State Buckeyes .8926
4 Stanford Cardinal .8689
5 Baylor Bears .8618
6 Oregon Ducks .7665
7 Auburn Tigers .7206
8 Clemson Tigers .7200
9 Missouri Tigers .7118
10 South Carolina Gamecocks .5584
11 Texas A&M Aggies .5473
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys .4671
13 UCLA Bruins .4548
14 Fresno State Bulldogs .4317
15 Northern Illinois Huskies .3505
16 Michigan State Spartans .3417

Some thoughts:

2013 BCS implications and strength of schedule worksheet for Week 10

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As it has in every college football season under the reign of the BCS, a team’s computer ranking is its most confusing and debate-causing aspect of the entire Bowl Championship Series process.

Which team has accomplished the most when the numbers are all you can see? It’s hard for a sport that includes so much subjectivity to remove the fan/expectation/showmanship aspect from the game and look at only the data.

That’s why here at BCS Know How for the last three years we’ve put together the implication worksheet. Which teams have accomplished the most according to the computers? And what teams still have the opportunity to accomplish more?

So what can you find here? The top eight BCS teams (or smaller, if the “striking distance” shrinks), along with their record and strength of schedule, according to Sagarin.

The real important stats, however, come after that. Each team is listed with key games already played, and key games to come. Key games are any against the BCS top 25 or the Sagarin PURE_ELO top 60. If teams are unlisted in the BCS, they are listed with their Sagarin rank, and all SOS is Sagarin-based.

Games for the upcoming weekend are bolded.

Note: All teams are included in the Sagarin data, including bowl-ineligible and FCS teams. If they count there, they count here. The BCS throws out any FCS or ineligible team when calculating its final tally.

BCS No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) SOS: 41

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 12 Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) SOS: 32 — Won 49-42
  • Sagarin No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies (6-2) SOS: 37 — Won 35-10
  • Sagarin No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels (5-3) SOS: 2 — Won 25-0
  • Sagarin No. 57 Tennessee Volunteers (4-4) SOS: 5 — Won 45-10

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 11 Auburn Tigers (7-1) SOS: 51 — Nov. 30
  • BCS No. 13 LSU Tigers (7-2) SOS: 30 — Nov. 9
  • SEC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 2 Oregon Ducks (6-0) SOS: 16

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 20 UCLA Bruins (5-2) SOS: 28 — Won 42-14
  • Sagarin No. 36 Washington Huskies (5-3) SOS: 16 — Won 45-24
  • Sagarin No. 47 Washington State Cougars (4-4) SOS: 15 — Won 62-38
  • Sagarin No. 57 Tennessee Volunteers (4-4) SOS: 5 — Won 59-14

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 5 Stanford Cardinal (7-1) SOS: 9 — Nov. 7
  • Sagarin No. 28 Oregon State Beavers (6-2) SOS: 60 — Nov. 29
  • Sagarin No. 34 Arizona Wildcats (5-2) SOS: 55 — Nov. 23
  • Pac-12 Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0) SOS: 68

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 8 Clemson Tigers (7-1) SOS: 39 — Won 51-14
  • Sagarin No. 46 Pittsburgh Panthers (4-3) SOS: 42 — Won 41-13
  • Sagarin No. 56 FCS Bethune-Cookman (7-1) SOS: 190 — Won 54-6

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 7 Miami Hurricanes (7-0) SOS: 82 — Nov. 2
  • Sagarin No. 31 Florida Gators (4-3) SOS: 14 — Nov. 30
  • ACC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0) SOS: 69

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 24 Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) SOS: 90 — Won 31-24
  • Sagarin No. 39 Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3) SOS: 43 — Won 34-24
  • Sagarin No. 45 Buffalo Bulls (6-2) SOS: 138 — Won 40-20
  • Sagarin No. 53 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-3) SOS: 36 — Won 63-14

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 21 Michigan Wolverines — Nov. 30
  • Big Ten Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 5 Stanford Cardinal (7-1) SOS: 9

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 20 UCLA Bruins (5-2) SOS: 28 — Won 24-10
  • Sagarin No. 28 Oregon State Beavers (6-2) SOS: 60 — Won 20-12
  • Sagarin No. 30 Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) SOS: 12 — Won 42-28
  • Sagarin No. 36 Washington Huskies (5-3) SOS: 16 — Won 31-28
  • Sagarin No. 47 Washington State Cougars (4-4) SOS: 15 — Won 55-17

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 2 Oregon Ducks (6-0) SOS: 16 — Nov. 7
  • Sagarin No. 25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2) SOS: 27 — Nov. 30
  • Sagarin No. 49 USC Trojans (5-3) SOS: 23 — Nov. 16
  • Pac-12 Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 6 Baylor Bears (7-0) SOS: 96

Key games already played:

  • None

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) SOS: 44 — Nov. 7
  • BCS No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1) SOS: 79 — Nov. 16
  • BCS No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) SOS: 52 — Nov. 23
  • Sagarin No. 27 Texas Longhorns (5-2) SOS: 13 — Dec. 7

BCS No. 7 Miami Hurricanes (6-1) SOS: 33

Key games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 31 Florida Gators (4-3) SOS: 14 — Won 21-16
  • Sagarin No. 38 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-3) SOS: 35 — Won 45-30

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0) SOS: 68 — Nov. 2
  • Sagarin No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies (6-2) SOS: 37 — Nov. 9
  • Sagarin No. 46 Pittsburgh Panthers (4-3) SOS: 42 — Nov. 29
  • Sagarin No. 54 Duke Blue Devils (6-2) SOS: 80 — Nov. 16
  • ACC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 8 Clemson Tigers (5-0) SOS: 9

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0) SOS: 68 — Lost 51-14
  • Sagarin No. 26 Georgia Bulldogs (4-3) SOS: 1 — Won 38-35

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 14 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) SOS: 11 — Nov. 30
  • Sagarin No. 38 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-3) SOS: 35 — Nov. 14
  • ACC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

Second 2013 BCS Rankings: Oregon Laps Florida State For No. 2 After One Week

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The fight at the top of the BCS rankings got a little less competitive just one week after Oregon lagged behind Florida State by just .003 in the BCS for No. 2 last week.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

Yes, after one week of simmering controversy over the fact that Florida State was No. 2 in the BCS but No. 3 in both polls, Oregon storms right ahead of the Seminoles for the No. 2 spot. And it’s not nearly as close this week.

A strong showing in the computers gives Oregon the No. 2 spot by more than .030, more than 10 times the lead Florida State had last weekend. Can Florida State make up that ground? That’ll be the question moving forward.

After Missouri’s loss this weekend, we were expecting some shifting in the next part of the BCS, but unexpectedly, Stanford’s showing across the board was enough to push the one-loss Cardinal past undefeated Baylor to No. 5, while Baylor rests at No. 6. Baylor was largely unable to close the gap on Stanford in the computers, lagging .19 behind the Cardinal in the computer aggregate, which was enough to give Stanford No. 5.

Miami bows at No. 7, Clemson is in at No. 8 and Missouri falls only four spots to No. 9 after losing to South Carolina, which themselves climbs a handful of spots, but nearly as many as we had anticipated.

Oklahoma is back into the top-10 at No. 10, while Auburn is steady at No. 11 and Texas A&M rounds out the top 12 after climbing four impressive spots in one week.

Of interest — No. 16 Fresno State stays one spot ahead of No. 17 Northern Illinois for the second straight week, as expected. Can the Bulldogs hold off the Huskies in a year where a BCS buster seems all the more likely? It’ll be a chase to the spot if both finish undefeated.

With just six weeks of BCS rankings left ever, we’re in the most important stretch of the season. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the second BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week Two — October 27th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9937
2 Oregon Ducks .9517
3 Florida State Seminoles .9211
4 Ohio State Buckeyes .8840
5 Stanford Cardinal .7918
6 Baylor Bears .7645
7 Miami Hurricanes .7560
8 Clemson Tigers .6687
9 Missouri Tigers .6096
10 Oklahoma Sooners .6064
11 Auburn Tigers .6025
12 Texas A&M Aggies .4812
13 LSU Tigers .4630
14 South Carolina Gamecocks .4486
15 Texas Tech Red Raiders .3749
16 Fresno State Bulldogs .3669

Some thoughts:

Harris Interactive Poll Week Nine: Stanford’s Leap Makes A Statement

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Stanford’s leap from No. 8 to No. 6 in this week’s Harris Interactive College Football Poll is the highlight of a all-new Harris Poll from 104 voters.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 27

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2590 .996
2 Oregon Ducks 2492 .958
3 Florida State Seminoles 2386 .918
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 2301 .885
5 Baylor Bears 2130 .819
6 Stanford Cardinal 2035 .783
7 Miami Hurricanes 1997 .768
8 Clemson Tigers 1767 .780
9 Missouri Tigers 1510 .581
10 Oklahoma Sooners 1475 .567
11 Auburn Tigers 1453 .559
12 LSU Tigers 1408 .542

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Nine: Baylor Being Heard

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Though Baylor’s ranking is unchanged in this week’s USA Today Coaches’ Poll, the Bears are certainly making their case as the calendar approaches November.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 27

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1542 .995
2 Oregon Ducks 1483 .957
3 Florida State Seminoles 1419 .915
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 1375 .887
5 Baylor Bears 1293 .834
6 Miami Hurricanes 1190 .768
7 Stanford Cardinal 1182 .763
8 Clemson Tigers 1064 .686
9 Oklahoma Sooners 933 .602
10 Missouri Tigers 834 .538
11 Auburn Tigers 804 .519
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys 803 .518

Projected BCS Standings: Oregon To Claim No. 2 In Second BCS Standings of 2013

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Time seems to run out slowly when you’re making a chase for a BCS bid. Whether it’s on the clock to hold on to the last-second victory or the weeks ticking slowly by in the last BCS year.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

Teams from around the country had little trouble dispatching of less difficult foes, but for a few teams, the time needed to get victories on Saturday must have seemed to move extra slow.

And in the case of Missouri, a crushing loss was probably already a death sentence for the season as far as a national title game bid is concerned.

So what else, if anything, did we learn this week? Mostly that the nation’s top BCS teams in its first iteration — Alabama, Oregon and Florida State — are very good. This week, like last week, we’ll see a fight to the finish for No. 2 between Oregon and Florida State.

The better victory this week belongs to the Ducks and not the Seminoles, and with that in mind, expect Oregon to make enough headway in the computers and the human polls to end the Seminoles one-week run at No. 2. Oregon is projected to take back that spot this week.

Elsewhere, the Ducks’ Pac-12 mates Stanford and Big 12 surprise Baylor will be the likely beneficiaries of the Missouri loss, as the Cardinal and Bears will fight for the No. 5 spot, along with Miami. Also look out for Oklahoma, fresh off a victory over previous No. 10 Texas Tech.

An interesting fight is also breaking out between Fresno State and Northern Illinois. Fresno State might remain ahead of Northern Illinois after the Bulldogs finished of San Diego State in OT and the Huskies had an easy victory, mostly because of the lateness of Fresno’s game. But the truly interesting part will come when the BCS rankings wind down. Who will be in front? For now we’re projecting that the Huskies will, even with Fresno possibly taking these first two weeks as the leader in the BCS buster clubhouse.

It’ll all be somewhat familiar when the second BCS rankings are released tomorrow, but with some changes that could play into the chase for the title game when the season winds up. The minutia becomes all the more important this time of year. Good thing we’re here to take a look at it.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Two (October 27)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
6 Baylor Bears
7 Miami Hurricanes
8 Clemson Tigers
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Missouri Tigers
12 Auburn Tigers