Projected BCS Standings: Baylor Can Make Its Move In Fifth BCS Standings of 2013

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Funny how one week’s marquee victory can mean far less given the next weekend’s results. Stanford, a one-loss team that seemingly had it all — an early loss, a big win over a conference rival and top-10 team, and a high BCS ranking above undefeated teams — was unable to hold off USC at the Coliseum, and sees its already slim BCS title hopes falter.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Baylor Bears
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Oregon Ducks
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Though the Stanford loss is intriguing, especially given the way the Pac-12 could resolve itself this season, the real drama will come at the No. 3 spot.

Baylor will finally see its odd stalling behind a one-loss teams come to an end and will move up. But how far? Can the Bears take the No. 3 spot?

The debate is now front and center. Is Baylor or Ohio State the best replacement pick for a national title game should Alabama or Florida State lose?

The fascinating thing is this — with Stanford’s loss, a lot of computer support becomes readily available for Baylor. As does human poll support. Some team is going to have to pick up those pieces and Ohio State chose the wrong weekend to win ugly against Illinois.

Much of that voter confidence will go Baylor’s way, especially after the Bears posted more than 60 points against formerly hot Texas Tech. And, Baylor already had some computer ground left to make up. This might be the weekend the Bears do it.

So can Baylor take No. 3? We’ll say yes.

Also, added bonus — four top teams, all undefeated? Sounds like a ringing endorsement for the College Football Playoff, right?

The one-loss squads with something to prove, including Oregon and Auburn, will come next. Don’t be surprised to see Auburn make a run at the No. 5 spot, which we’re projecting will be filled by Oregon. Though the Tigers might come up a bit short, a win over high competition like Georgia is likely to net Auburn some ground. Plus, with the ranks of the truly elite teams dwindling, now is the time to take a look at the broader picture

Clemson and Missouri, along with Stanford, will likely make up the rest of the top nine, as last week’s No. 10 South Carolina trailed significantly in its hope to breaking into the top 10.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Five (November 17th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Baylor Bears
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Oregon Ducks
6 Auburn Tigers
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Missouri Tigers
9 Stanford Cardinal
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Texas A&M Aggies
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys
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Fourth 2013 BCS Rankings: No. 2 Florida State Solidifies Its Stake

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Can a top-five team beating another top-five team truly be considered an upset? Whether the answer is yes or no, Stanford’s victory over Oregon is felt strongly throughout the fourth BCS standings, most notably as Florida State stakes the nation’s strongest claim to No. 2 yet.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Baylor Bears
Scroll down for more

After much hair-pulling about whether Oregon or Florida State would finish the season at No. 2 if they won out, it was the Ducks’ faltering on a Thursday night that ended the debate.

Of course, Florida State is far from completing an undefeated run through its schedule, but for now, the Seminoles look like they’re in the driver’s seat for a title game bid, along with the prohibitive favorite Alabama.

The next debate, in the final year of the debate era of college football (also known as the BCS), is who would replace the Seminoles if they were to falter. The BCS, and the country at large, has elected new No. 3 Ohio State for that position. But there are plenty of teams on the tail of the Buckeyes, starting with No. 4 Stanford and No. 5 Baylor.

Yes, the once-beaten Cardinal out pace the undefeated Bears because of their strong support in the computers after beating Oregon. Baylor, which was able to beat top-10 Oklahoma on Thursday, is still lagging in the computer component, and is hurting because of it.

Elsewhere, the BCS buster potential grows this week, as No. 14 Fresno State and No. 15 Northern Illinois continue to climb. They both remain ahead of the top AAC team, UCF, which would allow an automatic bid for a non-AQ team, and the Bulldogs and Huskies are vying for just that.

There’s plenty still to come in this season. Four more sets of these will tell the final story of the 2013 college football season.

With just four weeks of BCS rankings left ever, we’re in the home stretch. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fourth BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week Four — November 10th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9958
2 Florida State Seminoles .9619
3 Ohio State Buckeyes .8926
4 Stanford Cardinal .8689
5 Baylor Bears .8618
6 Oregon Ducks .7665
7 Auburn Tigers .7206
8 Clemson Tigers .7200
9 Missouri Tigers .7118
10 South Carolina Gamecocks .5584
11 Texas A&M Aggies .5473
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys .4671
13 UCLA Bruins .4548
14 Fresno State Bulldogs .4317
15 Northern Illinois Huskies .3505
16 Michigan State Spartans .3417

Some thoughts:

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week 11: Florida State Convincing No. 2

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Oregon’s loss allows Florida State to slide easily and convincingly into the No. 2 spot in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, with Ohio State taking the No. 3 spot and Baylor in at No. 4 before one-loss No. 5 Stanford.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – November 10

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1546 .997
2 Florida State Seminoles 1485 .958
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 1401 .904
4 Baylor Bears 1376 .888
5 Stanford Cardinal 1307 .843
6 Clemson Tigers 1164 .751
7 Oregon Ducks 1162 .750
8 Missouri Tigers 1083 .699
9 Auburn Tigers 1069 .690
10 Oklahoma State Cowboys 965 .623
11 Texas A&M Aggies 898 .579
12 South Carolina Gamecocks 830 .535

Harris Interactive Poll Week 11: Alabama Unanimously No. 1, FSU No. 2

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Oregon’s loss not only solidifies Florida State as the No. 2 team in the Harris Interactive Poll, but convinces voters that Alabama is overwhelmingly and clearly the No. 1 team in the country after the Tide top LSU.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – November 10

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2625 1.000
2 Florida State Seminoles 2514 .958
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 2373 .904
4 Baylor Bears 2304 .878
5 Stanford Cardinal 2240 .853
6 Oregon Ducks 1968 .750
7 Clemson Tigers 1940 .739
8 Missouri Tigers 1855 .707
9 Auburn Tigers 1843 .702
10 Texas A&M Aggies 1582 .603
11 Oklahoma State Cowboys 1545 .589
12 South Carolina Gamecocks 1417 .540

Fifth BCS Rankings of 2012: Kansas State Replaces Alabama As No. 1 With Oregon At No. 2

The streak is officially on life support. For the first time in seven years, we could have a team from outside the SEC win the BCS national championship game. That’s the result of a weekend that set the BCS standings on shuffle with just three sets of these remaining.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Kansas State Wildcats
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Alabama Crimson Tide
5 Georgia Bulldogs
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The Big 12’s Kansas State claims the top spot in the fifth BCS rankings of the 2012 season, followed by No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Notre Dame.

Support as the No. 1 team in both polls is not enough to bring Oregon the coveted No. 1 spot, as despite being ranked No. 2 in both the Coaches’ and Harris polls, Kansas State uses a near-perfect computer score to claim the top spot.

Notre Dame too grabs strong computer support, but can’t overcoming the difference between themselves and Oregon to grab the No. 2 slot. The Fighting Irish are definitively on the outside looking in on the title picture, and will need either the Wildcats or Ducks to drop a game in the coming weeks to get a chance at the national title.

It’s not until No. 4 Alabama, fallen from its perch after a crushing loss to Texas A&M, that we see the SEC’s footprint. And though Alabama’s appearance foretells an unprecedented group that follows — six squads from the conference occupying the spots from No. 4 to No. 9 — a bigger-picture reality is now clear.

Without some real help, the SEC could be locked out of the title game, that much is clear. The unbeatens ahead of Alabama and its SEC compatriots have too strong of a foothold with just three weekends left in the year. A conference that battle tested its champions week-in and week-out while seemingly able to produce one emergent team from a heap might have beaten up on itself a little too much in 2012.

But as we learned this weekend, you can take nothing for granted, and nothing is for certain. We’re far from done with the BCS, the season or the various implications that will be in store for the weekends to come. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout these final few weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fifth BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Five — November 11th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Kansas State Wildcats .9674
2 Oregon Ducks .9497
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .9396
4 Alabama Crimson Tide .8534
5 Georgia Bulldogs .8328
6 Florida Gators .7955
7 LSU Tigers .7331
8 Texas A&M Aggies .6621
9 South Carolina Gamecocks .6349
10 Florida State Seminoles .6071
11 Clemson Tigers .5921
12 Oklahoma Sooners .5797
13  Stanford Cardinal .5705
14 Nebraska Cornhuskers .4679
15 Texas Longhorns .4259
16 Oregon State Beavers .4161

Some thoughts:

Harris Interactive Poll Week 11: Oregon grabs top spot as Tide fall to No. 4

The Harris poll only punishes Alabama for its first loss of the year by dropping it three spots to No. 4. Oregon takes over atop the rankings, while Kansas State claims the No. 2 spot, enough for a likely No. 1 ranking when the BCS standings are released Sunday night.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – November 11

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Oregon Ducks 2844 .989
2 Kansas State Wildcats 2774 .965
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2634 .916
4 Alabama Crimson Tide 2494 .867
5 Georgia Bulldogs 2398 .834
6 Florida State Seminoles 2175 .757
7 Florida Gators 2113 .735
8 LSU Tigers 2082 .724
9 Clemson Tigers 1972 .686
10 Texas A&M Aggies 1842 .641
11 South Carolina Gamecocks 1732 .602
12 Oklahoma Sooners 1631 .567

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week 11: Oregon grabs top spot, Kansas State in at No. 2

Oregon returns to the top spot on the USA Today Coaches’ Poll for the first time since 2010, replacing Alabama after the Crimson Tide suffered their first loss of the year to Texas A&M.

For their victory, the Aggies blast into the No. 10 spot, while Kansas State, Notre Dame and Georgia each move up one spot. Alabama lands at No. 5.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – November 11

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Oregon Ducks 1460 .990
2 Kansas State Wildcats 1427 .967
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1346 .913
4 Georgia Bulldogs 1260 .854
5 Alabama Crimson Tide 1243 .843
6 Florida State Seminoles 1143 .775
7 Florida Gators 1079 .732
8 LSU Tigers 1040 .705
9 Clemson Tigers 1033 .700
10 Texas A&M Aggies 976 .662
11 South Carolina Gamecocks 903 .612
12 Oklahoma Sooners 799 .542