Projected BCS Standings: FSU Takes Control of Destiny in Fourth BCS Standings of 2013

BCSfour

When faced with some of the most difficult opponents of their season, teams often reveal just how good they are. In the cast of Oregon and Alabama, tests like that came this extended weekend. And for Oregon, the test was not passed.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Baylor Bears
Scroll down for more

More importantly, for Florida State, Oregon’s loss means a world of difference for the Seminoles. Is Florida State’s ticket to the BCS title game punched if they can win out? It certainly seems like it given the ranks of the undefeateds shrinks every week and Florida State continues to impress.

That being said, the continuing success of Ohio State and Baylor is something that can’t be ignored, and wont be in the newest BCS rankings, where a cluster of once-beaten teams and undefeated teams will battle for the top spots.

With the win over Oregon, Stanford will likely again be a major factor in the BCS race this weekend, but Oregon’s loss to a top-five team shouldn’t necessarily drop the Ducks completely out of the picture.

This is all well and nice, but the question will be who will be next in line if things don’t go well in the final weeks for presumed No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida State. Will it be the undefeated teams or the one-loss teams with impressive wins?

For now it’s the undefeated Ohio State waiting for that tumble everyone anticipates and wants. But who’s next? We’ll just have to find out.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Four (November 10th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Seminoles
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Baylor Bears
6 Oregon Ducks
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Auburn Tigers
9 Missouri Tigers
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Texas A&M Aggies
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys
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Projected BCS Standings: Oregon To Continue Holding Off FSU in Third BCS Standings of 2013

BCSWeek2

Which victories count more? Once again, the difficulty of ranking college football will rear its head in a season with more than just two very impressive teams.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

This week, the difficulty is in sharper relief, especially when Oregon sat at home with Florida State getting another shot at huge national exposure after also having a prime time window against Clemson.

And just like in their victory over the Tigers, the Seminoles dominated previous BCS No. 7 Miami on national TV. So with No. 2 Oregon at home, can the Seminoles reclaim the No. 2 spot they lost last weekend?

At least for now, the answer is likely no. Though the Seminoles will get a nice boost where they’ll need it — in the polls and computers — the combination of Oregon’s renewed computer strength and it’s steadying influence at No. 2 in the BCS, likely gives us Florida St. at No. 3 once again, but far closer than they were last week.

In fact, familiarity with the position should be the name of the game in the third BCS standings of the season, with very little movement from teams that were solidly entrenched in their spots last weekend.

Clearly, Miami will fall out of it’s No. 7 spot after losing to FSU, which will allow for some upward movement from some impressive teams, including Clemson, Missouri and Auburn.

But the season is far from over. And we’re just a few days away from perhaps the most wild Thursday in college football’s recent history. So plenty of interesting things are in store. We’ll just have to figure out which one of those games — and potential victories — count more.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Three (November 3rd)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
6 Baylor Bears
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Missouri Tigers
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 Auburn Tigers
11 Miami Hurricanes
12 Texas A&M Aggies

2013 BCS implications and strength of schedule worksheet for Week 10

IMPLICATIONS10

As it has in every college football season under the reign of the BCS, a team’s computer ranking is its most confusing and debate-causing aspect of the entire Bowl Championship Series process.

Which team has accomplished the most when the numbers are all you can see? It’s hard for a sport that includes so much subjectivity to remove the fan/expectation/showmanship aspect from the game and look at only the data.

That’s why here at BCS Know How for the last three years we’ve put together the implication worksheet. Which teams have accomplished the most according to the computers? And what teams still have the opportunity to accomplish more?

So what can you find here? The top eight BCS teams (or smaller, if the “striking distance” shrinks), along with their record and strength of schedule, according to Sagarin.

The real important stats, however, come after that. Each team is listed with key games already played, and key games to come. Key games are any against the BCS top 25 or the Sagarin PURE_ELO top 60. If teams are unlisted in the BCS, they are listed with their Sagarin rank, and all SOS is Sagarin-based.

Games for the upcoming weekend are bolded.

Note: All teams are included in the Sagarin data, including bowl-ineligible and FCS teams. If they count there, they count here. The BCS throws out any FCS or ineligible team when calculating its final tally.

BCS No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) SOS: 41

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 12 Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) SOS: 32 — Won 49-42
  • Sagarin No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies (6-2) SOS: 37 — Won 35-10
  • Sagarin No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels (5-3) SOS: 2 — Won 25-0
  • Sagarin No. 57 Tennessee Volunteers (4-4) SOS: 5 — Won 45-10

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 11 Auburn Tigers (7-1) SOS: 51 — Nov. 30
  • BCS No. 13 LSU Tigers (7-2) SOS: 30 — Nov. 9
  • SEC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 2 Oregon Ducks (6-0) SOS: 16

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 20 UCLA Bruins (5-2) SOS: 28 — Won 42-14
  • Sagarin No. 36 Washington Huskies (5-3) SOS: 16 — Won 45-24
  • Sagarin No. 47 Washington State Cougars (4-4) SOS: 15 — Won 62-38
  • Sagarin No. 57 Tennessee Volunteers (4-4) SOS: 5 — Won 59-14

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 5 Stanford Cardinal (7-1) SOS: 9 — Nov. 7
  • Sagarin No. 28 Oregon State Beavers (6-2) SOS: 60 — Nov. 29
  • Sagarin No. 34 Arizona Wildcats (5-2) SOS: 55 — Nov. 23
  • Pac-12 Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0) SOS: 68

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 8 Clemson Tigers (7-1) SOS: 39 — Won 51-14
  • Sagarin No. 46 Pittsburgh Panthers (4-3) SOS: 42 — Won 41-13
  • Sagarin No. 56 FCS Bethune-Cookman (7-1) SOS: 190 — Won 54-6

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 7 Miami Hurricanes (7-0) SOS: 82 — Nov. 2
  • Sagarin No. 31 Florida Gators (4-3) SOS: 14 — Nov. 30
  • ACC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0) SOS: 69

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 24 Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) SOS: 90 — Won 31-24
  • Sagarin No. 39 Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3) SOS: 43 — Won 34-24
  • Sagarin No. 45 Buffalo Bulls (6-2) SOS: 138 — Won 40-20
  • Sagarin No. 53 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-3) SOS: 36 — Won 63-14

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 21 Michigan Wolverines — Nov. 30
  • Big Ten Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 5 Stanford Cardinal (7-1) SOS: 9

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 20 UCLA Bruins (5-2) SOS: 28 — Won 24-10
  • Sagarin No. 28 Oregon State Beavers (6-2) SOS: 60 — Won 20-12
  • Sagarin No. 30 Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) SOS: 12 — Won 42-28
  • Sagarin No. 36 Washington Huskies (5-3) SOS: 16 — Won 31-28
  • Sagarin No. 47 Washington State Cougars (4-4) SOS: 15 — Won 55-17

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 2 Oregon Ducks (6-0) SOS: 16 — Nov. 7
  • Sagarin No. 25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2) SOS: 27 — Nov. 30
  • Sagarin No. 49 USC Trojans (5-3) SOS: 23 — Nov. 16
  • Pac-12 Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 6 Baylor Bears (7-0) SOS: 96

Key games already played:

  • None

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) SOS: 44 — Nov. 7
  • BCS No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1) SOS: 79 — Nov. 16
  • BCS No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) SOS: 52 — Nov. 23
  • Sagarin No. 27 Texas Longhorns (5-2) SOS: 13 — Dec. 7

BCS No. 7 Miami Hurricanes (6-1) SOS: 33

Key games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 31 Florida Gators (4-3) SOS: 14 — Won 21-16
  • Sagarin No. 38 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-3) SOS: 35 — Won 45-30

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0) SOS: 68 — Nov. 2
  • Sagarin No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies (6-2) SOS: 37 — Nov. 9
  • Sagarin No. 46 Pittsburgh Panthers (4-3) SOS: 42 — Nov. 29
  • Sagarin No. 54 Duke Blue Devils (6-2) SOS: 80 — Nov. 16
  • ACC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 8 Clemson Tigers (5-0) SOS: 9

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0) SOS: 68 — Lost 51-14
  • Sagarin No. 26 Georgia Bulldogs (4-3) SOS: 1 — Won 38-35

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 14 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) SOS: 11 — Nov. 30
  • Sagarin No. 38 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-3) SOS: 35 — Nov. 14
  • ACC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

Heisman Watch Week 11: Aggies’ Manziel makes his move

Collin Klein

On the weekend he returned from an injury that seemed to threaten his hopes at the Heisman trophy, Collin Klein was able to put in a solid performance in a key victory over TCU on Saturday, using his feet to help push Kansas State. Klein was admittedly underwhelming through the air, passing for just 145 yards and no touchdowns with a pick thrown. But his ground game made up for the aerial assault, as he provided the Wildcats with two key scores on the ground.

Johnny Manziel

It’s not really what Manziel did statistically that makes Johnny Manziel the emergent Heisman candidate of the weekend, it’s what his team did. In Texas A&M’s surprising victory over unbeaten No. 1 Alabama, Manziel was the quarterback the Aggies needed, throwing for two touchdowns and 253 yards in the victory. Again, there was nothing spectacular about the stats that Manziel produced Saturday, but that matters little for a trophy that always values big performances in big spots — and Manziel might have delivered the best example of the year Saturday.

Kenjon Barner

Barner was relatively unneeded in Oregon’s victory over California on Saturday, and an injury to the star running back certainly put a damper on his numbers, but Barner is far from out of the race. His 100 yards of total offense on Saturday was nothing to write home about, definitely, but the burner Barner can always turn his production back up, and when the time comes for Oregon to prove it belongs in the national title race, his performance (or lack thereof) could spark the Heisman conversation he needs.

Manti Te’o

Manti Te’o recorded a Notre Dame linebacker record sixth interception against Boston College in the Irish’s key victory on Saturday. Te’o’s has and continues to provide the spark the Irish need in key moments, and it was no different on Saturday. The 21-6 victory wasn’t pretty, but it was exactly what Notre Dame needed to do to stay in the national conversation, and another strong performance out of Te’o keeps him in the Heimsan conversation.

Braxton Miller

The Buckeyes quarterback and Ohio State were off this weekend, giving Braxton Miller the time he needs to rest and likely recover from a season that has tested him well. Miller has done many things this season to help the ineligible Buckeyes stay undefeated, a feat that should not and will not go unnoticed. He may fall short of the Heisman trophy this season, but at this early juncture, who better to hold the flag for 2013?

On The Radar:

Marqise Lee

The receiver can’t be stopped, bringing in more than 150 yards for the third straight week and hauling in a touchdown.

AJ McCarron

Tough break for McCarron on Saturday, who saw his Heisman hopes dwindle with the loss and two costly interceptions.

Fourth BCS Rankings of 2012: Oregon Passes Notre Dame, Sets Sights on No. 2 Kansas State

Winning finally paid for Oregon this week, as the Ducks finally make an upward move in the fourth BCS standings of the season, rising one spot, from No. 4 to No. 3 and past Notre Dame.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

Oregon continues to trail No. 2 Kansas State and No. 1 Alabama, but Kansas State’s position is precarious at best.

Gains in all three components of the BCS — the Harris Poll, Coaches’ Poll and BCS computers — allowed Oregon to sneak past the Fighting Irish and the Ducks can now set their sights on the Wildcats.

Already ahead of Kansas State in the two human elements, the Ducks will look to their schedule and some computer help to make up the ground they need to get into the top two slots and the berth in the national title game that comes along with it. The distance that separates the two teams now is the .09 advantage the Wildcats enjoy in the computers through the fourth BCS standings.

Georgia rounds out the BCS top five, taking the spot of LSU, which would have been the story of the weekend had the Ducks not put away USC and finally grew their support to the point where the Ducks finally saw a growth in support and a shrinking of rankings number.

An interesting group of teams follows the Bulldogs — one which includes the twice-beaten Tigers. Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Florida State, and Louisville land in an area enviable by most — an area of BCS bowl eligibility. Sure, only two SEC teams can be BCS bound, and one of them is likely to be Alabama, but the teams that land in the top 10 with just four sets of these remaining will jockey to the season’s end.

Undefeated Louisville continues to loom, in at No. 9 this week, while Oregon State and Oklahoma round out the top 12. Clemson and Stanford land inside the all-important top 14, the threshold for BCS eligibility, exasperated this year by the glut of SEC squads among the nations’ best.

Four weeks in and four weeks to go, no questions are solidly answered. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fourth BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Four — November 4th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9957
2 Kansas State Wildcats .9318
3 Oregon Ducks .9166
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .9050
5 Georgia Bulldogs .8171
6 Florida Gators .7863
7 LSU Tigers .7054
8 South Carolina Gamecocks .6206
9 Louisville Cardinals .6040
10 Florida State Seminoles .5969
11 Oregon State Beavers .5965
12 Oklahoma Sooners .5812
13 Clemson Tigers .5772
14 Stanford Cardinal .5086
15 Texas A&M Aggies .5060
16 Nebraska Cornhuskers .3976

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Good until 11. Again. Thought the lack of strength from Oregon State against Arizona State would knock them down one, but steady week-to-week.

Harris Interactive Poll Week 10: Oregon, Kansas State gain on Alabama

LSU’s drop in the Harris Poll is accompanied by slight gains for both Oregon and Kansas State in the latest Harris Interactive Poll, as Alabama slightly loses its grasp on its dominating No. 1 spot.

Still well ahead of the pack, Alabama loses one point while Oregon gains 10 points and Kansas State gains 8. Georgia, Florida State and Florida each move up one spot, while LSU falls to No. 8.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – November 4

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2867 .997
2 Oregon Ducks 2735 .951
3 Kansas State Wildcats 2664 .927
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2533 .881
5 Georgia Bulldogs 2345 .816
6 Florida State Seminoles 2223 .773
7 Florida Gators 2154 .749
8 LSU Tigers 2011 .699
9 Clemson Tigers 1969 .685
10 Louisville Cardinals 1825 .635
11 South Carolina Gamecocks 1654 .575
12 Oregon State Beavers 1588 .552

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week 10: Florida State, Florida, Clemson climb up

While LSU’s loss sends the Tigers down a few spots, with Clemson, Florida, Florida State and Georgia grabbing the free spots, the really interesting development of the latest USA Today Coaches’ Poll is Oregon’s eight-point gain on Alabama and a widening of the gap between the Ducks and the teams it chases in the BCS.

Most notably, the distance Oregon made up on Alabama gives it a boost on the BCS No. 2 Kansas State and BCS No. 3 Notre Dame. Kansas State gained four points, while Notre Dame lost support after a tough victory over Pittsburgh in overtime on Saturday.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – November 4

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1475 1.000
2 Oregon Ducks 1399 .948
3 Kansas State Wildcats 1370 .929
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1289 .874
5 Georgia Bulldogs 1218 .826
6 Florida State Seminoles 1147 .778
7 Florida Gators 1091 .740
8 Clemson Tigers 1013 .687
9 LSU Tigers 998 .677
10 Louisville Cardinals 940 .637
11 South Carolina Gamecocks 880 .597
12 Oregon State Beavers 807 .547