First 2013 BCS Rankings: Alabama & FSU Lead Gang Into The Final Year

 

biggerbcslogoJust one BCS standings in and we already have a rumble at the top on our hands — the BCS isn’t going to leave without a fight.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
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As expected, No. 2 Florida State  and No. 2 Oregon bunch together tightly in the race for the No. 2 spot in the inaugural BCS standings of 2013, both chasing convincing No. 1 Alabama.

The Seminoles’ victory over Clemson combined with Oregon’s long-standing position as the nation’s No. 2 team conspired to provide us with some real drama that could continue to play out the rest of the season if the two squads continue to win.

Oregon remained at No. 2 in the polls, but Florida State took full advantage of some major upsets around the board, grabbing the best computer support in the country and No. 3 in both the Coaches’ and Harris polls. For now, Florida State lands just .0028 ahead of Oregon.

If Florida State had received even a .01 smaller share of the computer rankings, Oregon would have been your No. 2 team this week.

But what if the Ducks and Seminoles don’t keep winning? The first BCS standings have given us a window into what we could expect. Ohio State’s almost quiet No. 4 comes as no surprise, as the Buckeyes have run through the early part of the season undefeated.

No. 5 Missouri and No. 8 Baylor are some of the handful of surprises in the first set of BCS rankings, as is No. 7 Miami. All three teams were the beneficiaries of the upset-filled weekend, and Missouri carries a very strong computer ranking into the BCS part of the season.

We’re in the home stretch now, believe it or not. Just seven weeks left of the BCS. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the first BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week One — October 20th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9841
2 Florida State Seminoles .9348
3 Oregon Ducks .9320
4 Ohio State Buckeyes .8553
5 Missouri Tigers .8219
6 Stanford Cardinal .7414
7 Miami Hurricanes .7200
8 Baylor Bears .7120
9 Clemson Tigers .6249
10 Texas Tech Red Raiders .6220
11 Auburn Tigers .5058
12 UCLA Bruins .4807
13 LSU Tigers .4552
14 Virginia Tech Hokies .4408
15 Oklahoma Sooners .4204
16 Texas A&M Aggies .3666

Some thoughts:

BCS Computer Rankings Week One: Florida State Rides In At No. 1

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Florida State starts the season as the top team in the nation, according to the computers. Alabama pulls in the second-best ranking, while Missouri captures the third-best in the nation. Oregon lags at No. 4.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week One (October 20)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 Florida St. Alabama Missouri Florida St. Florida St. Alabama
2 Alabama Oregon Florida St. Missouri Alabama Florida St.
3 Missouri Ohio St. Alabama Alabama Missouri Missouri
4 Oregon Stanford Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon
5 Ohio St. Florida St. Ohio St. Auburn N. Illinois Virginia Tech
6 Stanford Missouri Stanford Stanford Oregon St. Auburn

And the aggregate BCS computer rankings:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week One (October 20)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1 Florida State Seminoles .980
2 Alabama Crimson Tide .960
3 Missouri Tigers .930
4 Oregon Ducks .880
4 Ohio State Buckeyes .790
6 Stanford Cardinal .760
7 Auburn Tigers .750
8 Virginia Tech Hokies .680
9 Clemson Tigers .670
10 Miami Hurricanes .630
11 Texas Tech Red Raiders .600
12 Baylor Bears .550

Projected BCS Standings: FSU, Oregon Already Jockeying For No. 2 In First BCS Standings of 2013

BCSWeek1

What is it that you don’t like about the BCS? The time to complain is kind of running out … this week marks the beginning of the end for the system, the era and the formula as we know it.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

And wouldn’t you know it, on our very first weekend of our very last BCS year, we’re going to get some drama right off the bat. There’s no doubt what victory this weekend was the most impressive, that’s Florida State with a big win over previous No. 3 Clemson.

And yet, we have last week’s and this young season’s No. 2, Oregon, as dominating as ever, still undefeated and still putting up huge performances week after week. So which will be No. 2 when the BCS is finally released tomorrow?

Well, one of the things people have enjoyed complaining about most in this era of the BCS is voter laziness. And though tomorrow will likely show a nice push toward supporting Florida State’s superb record thus far, we’re projecting that it will be Oregon at No. 2 when the BCS is released on the strength of the voter support that remains in the Ducks’ camp. Even with the expected bump in computer poll support, Florida State might still end up just short of Oregon.

That might quell some of the traditional anger that could be associated with a shock like Florida State at No. 2 after barely cracking the top five at all this year. But even if Florida State does make up the minuscule ground they’re projected to still be lacking against Oregon (currently less than .0030 points) — the future is actually brighter in Oregon’s corner. This is a conversation will hold some water for much of the rest of the season if the teams keep reeling off wins.

Elsewhere, expect surprise powers Baylor, Missouri and Miami to be dancing inside the top 12 this week, with Baylor and Missouri taking cracks at the top five spots, where as they were outside that potential territory just a week ago. Teams like UCLA, LSU, Clemson, Louisville, South Carolina and Texas A&M will suffer for poorly timed losses on this first BCS weekend of 2013, though bounce backs are more than possible for most of those teams, including for Stanford, which dispatched of UCLA.

We’re in it for final time this year. It’s going to get even more interesting than this, and we’re going to be covering it all. Strap if for one hell of a last ride.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 20)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
6 Baylor Bears
7 Stanford Cardinal
8 Clemson Tigers
9 Miami Hurricanes
10 LSU Tigers
11 UCLA Bruins
12 Texas A&M Aggies

BCS Computer Rankings Week One: Florida the computer darling of the first BCS standings

Not surprisingly, an SEC team leads the way in the BCS rankings, and an SEC team leads the way in the aggregate BCS computer rankings. But they’re not the same team.

No, it’s Florida that pulls in the best aggregate BCS computer ranking in the first BCS standings of 2012, pulling in an impressive .960 score, which helped the Gators grab the No. 2 spot from the clutches of the Oregon Ducks. Florida is followed closely by another mild surprise, Notre Dame, which enjoys a comfortable .940 aggregate score on the strength of an already robust strength of schedule and undefeated record.

Alabama lands at No. 3 in the computer rankings with a .930 share, followed by Kansas State’s .920. But let’s explore deeper.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week One (October 14)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 Florida Alabama Notre Dame Notre Dame Alabama Kansas St.
2 Kansas St. Notre Dame Florida Florida Florida Florida
3 Notre Dame Oregon Alabama Kansas St. Kansas St. Alabama
4 Oregon St. Kansas St. Oregon St. Alabama Notre Dame Notre Dame
5 Alabama Florida Kansas St. Oregon St. LSU Oregon St.
6 Oregon LSU Oregon Oklahoma Oregon Oklahoma

And what the aggregate BCS computer rankings were:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week One (October 14)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1 Florida Gators .960
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .940
3 Alabama Crimson Tide .930
4 Kansas State Wildcats .920
5 Oregon State Beavers .830
6 Oregon Ducks .780
7 South Carolina Gamecocks .700
7 Texas Tech Red Raiders .700
9 LSU Tigers .670
10 Oklahoma Sooners .660
11 Rutgers Scarlet Knights .560
12 West Virginia Mountaineers .530

First BCS Rankings of 2012: Alabama and Florida pace the field

While you might not agree, you at least have to marvel. Once again, the BCS rankings are ruled by two SEC teams, as No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida lead the way in the first BCS rankings of the 2012 season.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida Gators
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Kansas State Wildcats
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Scroll down for more

How did they do it? Well, a combination of ways. It was clear to just about anyone that Alabama would be atop these first set of rankings, and they pulled in an impressive first-week .9761 score, showing a wide-spread belief that Alabama is the team to beat.

Oregon, which captured both No. 2 rankings in the Harris and Coaches’ polls gets bypassed by a hungry Gators squad, which enjoys the nation’s best computer rankings. Oregon, on the other hand, gets just the nation’s sixth-best computer score, giving it too little to hang ahead of the Gators.

Further down the spread, we get our first glance of a Big 12 school, as Kansas State lands at No. 4. A strong rebound into the top four computer scores allowed the Wildcats to stay ahead of Notre Dame, which lands at No. 5.

Our first one-loss squad is unsurprisingly LSU, coming off of a great victory over South Carolina, landing at No. 6. Those same Gamecocks land at No. 7, seeing the steadying affect of the computer rankings keep their BCS dreams afloat for the time being.

Undefeated and surprising Oregon State is the beneficiary of some strong computer support at No. 8 despite a lacking level of support for an undefeated squad from an AQ conference. The Beavers are trailed by strong one-loss squads USC and Oklahoma to round out the top 10.

We’re in the home stretch now, believe it or not. Just seven weeks remain. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the first BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week One — October 14th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9761
2 Florida Gators .9092
3 Oregon Ducks .8993
4 Kansas State Wildcats .8963
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .8774
6 LSU Tigers .7522
7 South Carolina Gamecocks .6930
8 Oregon State Beavers .6808
9 Oklahoma Sooners .6664
10 USC Trojans .5959
11 Georgia Bulldogs .4980
12 Mississippi State Bulldogs .4846
13 West Virginia Mountaineers .4793
14 Florida State Seminoles .4277
15 Rutgers Scarlet Knights .4083
16 Louisville Cardinals .4061

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Well, other than seeing the Ducks bypassed by the slimmest of margins, a solid week to start. Never fun to have the mix at the top. But solid. Take it as you will.

BCS Computer Rankings Week One: Oklahoma State Rides High on Computer Support

Oklahoma State reaps huge benefits from their victory over Texas on the weekend, coming in at No. 1 in four of the six BCS computers, while BCS No. 1 LSU takes just one computer poll, Billingsley’s.

Alabama, ever so slightly behind LSU for the No. 1 spot in the BCS standings, takes Sagarin’s computer, and fares well across the board, but not nearly as well as the Cowboys.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week One (October 16th)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 Oklahoma State LSU Oklahoma State Oklahoma State Alabama Oklahoma State
2 Alabama Oklahoma Oklahoma Alabama LSU Alabama
3 LSU Alabama Alabama Clemson Clemson LSU
4 Oklahoma Oklahoma State LSU Oklahoma Oklahoma State Clemson
5 Clemson Boise State Boise State LSU Oklahoma Oklahoma
6 Boise State Clemson Clemson Kansas State Wisconsin Boise State

And what the aggregate BCS computer rankings were:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week One (October 16th)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1 Oklahoma State Cowboys .970
2 Alabama Crimson Tide .950
3 LSU Tigers .920
4 Oklahoma Sooners .890
5 Clemson Tigers .860
6 Boise State Broncos .800
7 Kansas State Wildcats .740
8 Stanford Cardinal .620
9 Arkansas Razorbacks .620
10 Virginia Tech Hokies .610
11 Wisconsin Badgers .600
12 Oregon Ducks .480

First BCS Rankings of 2011: LSU Takes Top Spot Followed Closely by Alabama

Our very first BCS rankings of the season anoint LSU as the top team in the country, but with LSU and Oklahoma right on the Tigers’ tale, the order of the top three matters little.

On the strength of computer support and Harris’s No. 1, the Tigers jump past the Sooners and Crimson Tide to claim the first BCS No. 1 of the season.

Oklahoma State grabs an impressive No. 4 spot in the first edition of the BCS, while Boise State, Wisconsin, Clemson and Stanford round out the top eight.

The Cowboys are the recipients of the strongest computer support in the country, offsetting their relatively weak performance in the human elements. Oklahoma State’s .970 computer share was by far the best in the country, giving them an easy No. 4 spot.

Stanford and Wisconsin’s relatively strong support in the human elements are offset by their poor performances across the BCS computers, leaving the Cardinal and Badgers with some work to do if they’re interested in making a run at the national championship game.

Boise State will also be hard pressed to make a run at the title game without a loss from one of the favorites above the Broncos in these first set of rankings.

With national consensus that a Nov. 5 meeting between LSU and Alabama will decide one of the national title teams, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State also have what could be a de facto national semifinal on their schedules already, a December 3rd meeting.

But of course, all must need to keep undefeated to remain in position to challenge for a title shot.

But enough talk, here’s the first version of the BCS rankings.

BCS Standings Week One — October 16th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 LSU Tigers .9522
2 Alabama Crimson Tide .9519
3 Oklahoma Sooners .9301
4 Oklahoma State Cowboys .8568
5 Boise State Broncos .8027
6 Wisconsin Badgers .7708
7 Clemson Tigers .7582
8 Stanford Cardinal .7484
9 Arkansas Razorbacks .6262
10 Oregon Ducks .6190
11 Kansas State Wildcats .5688
12 Virginia Tech Hokies .5048
13 Nebraska Cornhuskers .4972
14 South Carolina Gamecocks .4914
15 West Virginia Mountaineers .3730
16 Michigan State Spartans .3288

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCSvs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Switched No. 1 and No. 2, although the difference is, once again, negligible.
    • 3-8 is all good, while I switched a few things up later on, projecting Oregon a little too high and Arkansas a little low.
    • Odd how Virginia Tech shot up to No. 12 after not even ranking among the top 16 in last week’s simulation. However, it is more than explainable after losses from Michigan, Georgia Tech and Illinois cleared space for the Hokies’ jump.
    • Big East ‘power’ West Virginia sits at No. 15, hanging on dearly to that No. 16 line.