Fourth 2013 BCS Rankings: No. 2 Florida State Solidifies Its Stake

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Can a top-five team beating another top-five team truly be considered an upset? Whether the answer is yes or no, Stanford’s victory over Oregon is felt strongly throughout the fourth BCS standings, most notably as Florida State stakes the nation’s strongest claim to No. 2 yet.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Baylor Bears
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After much hair-pulling about whether Oregon or Florida State would finish the season at No. 2 if they won out, it was the Ducks’ faltering on a Thursday night that ended the debate.

Of course, Florida State is far from completing an undefeated run through its schedule, but for now, the Seminoles look like they’re in the driver’s seat for a title game bid, along with the prohibitive favorite Alabama.

The next debate, in the final year of the debate era of college football (also known as the BCS), is who would replace the Seminoles if they were to falter. The BCS, and the country at large, has elected new No. 3 Ohio State for that position. But there are plenty of teams on the tail of the Buckeyes, starting with No. 4 Stanford and No. 5 Baylor.

Yes, the once-beaten Cardinal out pace the undefeated Bears because of their strong support in the computers after beating Oregon. Baylor, which was able to beat top-10 Oklahoma on Thursday, is still lagging in the computer component, and is hurting because of it.

Elsewhere, the BCS buster potential grows this week, as No. 14 Fresno State and No. 15 Northern Illinois continue to climb. They both remain ahead of the top AAC team, UCF, which would allow an automatic bid for a non-AQ team, and the Bulldogs and Huskies are vying for just that.

There’s plenty still to come in this season. Four more sets of these will tell the final story of the 2013 college football season.

With just four weeks of BCS rankings left ever, we’re in the home stretch. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fourth BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week Four — November 10th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9958
2 Florida State Seminoles .9619
3 Ohio State Buckeyes .8926
4 Stanford Cardinal .8689
5 Baylor Bears .8618
6 Oregon Ducks .7665
7 Auburn Tigers .7206
8 Clemson Tigers .7200
9 Missouri Tigers .7118
10 South Carolina Gamecocks .5584
11 Texas A&M Aggies .5473
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys .4671
13 UCLA Bruins .4548
14 Fresno State Bulldogs .4317
15 Northern Illinois Huskies .3505
16 Michigan State Spartans .3417

Some thoughts:

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BCS Computer Rankings Week Four: Stanford Up To No. 3 In Computers

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Oregon’s loss is many other’s gain in the computers, as many teams make an upward leap, including Stanford themselves. Alabama’s win over LSU proves a solidifying victory to secure their No. 1 overall position.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Four (November 10)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 Alabama Alabama Florida St. Alabama Florida St. Alabama
2 Florida St. Florida St. Alabama Florida St. Alabama Florida St.
3 Baylor Stanford Stanford Stanford Stanford Ohio St.
4 Ohio St. Ohio St. Ohio St. Auburn Baylor Stanford
5 Stanford Oregon Baylor Oregon Ohio St. Auburn
6 Oregon Baylor Auburn Ohio St. N. Illinois Oregon

And the aggregate BCS computer rankings:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week Four (November 10)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .990
2 Florida State Seminoles .970
3 Stanford Cardinal .910
4 Ohio State Buckeyes .870
5 Baylor Bears .820
6 Oregon Ducks .800
7 Auburn Tigers .770
8 Missouri Tigers .730
9 Clemson Tigers .670
10 South Carolina Gamecocks .600
11 UCLA Bruins .560
12 Arizona State Sun Devils .500

Projected BCS Standings: FSU Takes Control of Destiny in Fourth BCS Standings of 2013

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When faced with some of the most difficult opponents of their season, teams often reveal just how good they are. In the cast of Oregon and Alabama, tests like that came this extended weekend. And for Oregon, the test was not passed.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Baylor Bears
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More importantly, for Florida State, Oregon’s loss means a world of difference for the Seminoles. Is Florida State’s ticket to the BCS title game punched if they can win out? It certainly seems like it given the ranks of the undefeateds shrinks every week and Florida State continues to impress.

That being said, the continuing success of Ohio State and Baylor is something that can’t be ignored, and wont be in the newest BCS rankings, where a cluster of once-beaten teams and undefeated teams will battle for the top spots.

With the win over Oregon, Stanford will likely again be a major factor in the BCS race this weekend, but Oregon’s loss to a top-five team shouldn’t necessarily drop the Ducks completely out of the picture.

This is all well and nice, but the question will be who will be next in line if things don’t go well in the final weeks for presumed No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida State. Will it be the undefeated teams or the one-loss teams with impressive wins?

For now it’s the undefeated Ohio State waiting for that tumble everyone anticipates and wants. But who’s next? We’ll just have to find out.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Four (November 10th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Seminoles
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Baylor Bears
6 Oregon Ducks
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Auburn Tigers
9 Missouri Tigers
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Texas A&M Aggies
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys

BCS Computer Rankings Week Four: Alabama Rises To Top Spot Among BCS Computers

Alabama’s victory over LSU gives it the strength it needed to rise to the No. 1 spot in the BCS computer aggregate, as the Crimson Tide now claim ownership of the top spot among all three BCS components.

Notre Dame slips slightly to No. 2 in the computers, while Kansas State is down to No. 3. The key development is, of course, Oregon’s non-movement after a victory over USC. But the Ducks do make up some of the distance that had separated themselves and Kansas State, as the Ducks are now just .09 behind the Wildcats.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Four (November 4)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 Notre Dame Alabama Notre Dame Alabama Alabama Alabama
2 Kansas St. Kansas St. Alabama Notre Dame Kansas St. Notre Dame
3 Alabama Notre Dame Kansas St. Kansas St.  Notre Dame Kansas St.
4 Florida Oregon Florida Florida Florida Oregon
5 Oregon Georgia Oregon Oregon Georiga Florida
6 Georiga Florida Oregon St. Gerogia LSU Georgia

And the aggregate BCS computer rankings:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week Four (November 4)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .990
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .960
3 Kansas State Wildcats .940
4 Florida Gators .870
5 Oregon Ducks .850
6 Georgia Bulldogs .810
7 LSU Tigers .740
8 South Carolina Gamecocks .690
8 Oregon State Beavers .690
10 Oklahoma Sooners .660
11 Texas A&M Aggies .560
12 Stanford Cardinal .550

Fourth BCS Rankings of 2012: Oregon Passes Notre Dame, Sets Sights on No. 2 Kansas State

Winning finally paid for Oregon this week, as the Ducks finally make an upward move in the fourth BCS standings of the season, rising one spot, from No. 4 to No. 3 and past Notre Dame.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

Oregon continues to trail No. 2 Kansas State and No. 1 Alabama, but Kansas State’s position is precarious at best.

Gains in all three components of the BCS — the Harris Poll, Coaches’ Poll and BCS computers — allowed Oregon to sneak past the Fighting Irish and the Ducks can now set their sights on the Wildcats.

Already ahead of Kansas State in the two human elements, the Ducks will look to their schedule and some computer help to make up the ground they need to get into the top two slots and the berth in the national title game that comes along with it. The distance that separates the two teams now is the .09 advantage the Wildcats enjoy in the computers through the fourth BCS standings.

Georgia rounds out the BCS top five, taking the spot of LSU, which would have been the story of the weekend had the Ducks not put away USC and finally grew their support to the point where the Ducks finally saw a growth in support and a shrinking of rankings number.

An interesting group of teams follows the Bulldogs — one which includes the twice-beaten Tigers. Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Florida State, and Louisville land in an area enviable by most — an area of BCS bowl eligibility. Sure, only two SEC teams can be BCS bound, and one of them is likely to be Alabama, but the teams that land in the top 10 with just four sets of these remaining will jockey to the season’s end.

Undefeated Louisville continues to loom, in at No. 9 this week, while Oregon State and Oklahoma round out the top 12. Clemson and Stanford land inside the all-important top 14, the threshold for BCS eligibility, exasperated this year by the glut of SEC squads among the nations’ best.

Four weeks in and four weeks to go, no questions are solidly answered. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fourth BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Four — November 4th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9957
2 Kansas State Wildcats .9318
3 Oregon Ducks .9166
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .9050
5 Georgia Bulldogs .8171
6 Florida Gators .7863
7 LSU Tigers .7054
8 South Carolina Gamecocks .6206
9 Louisville Cardinals .6040
10 Florida State Seminoles .5969
11 Oregon State Beavers .5965
12 Oklahoma Sooners .5812
13 Clemson Tigers .5772
14 Stanford Cardinal .5086
15 Texas A&M Aggies .5060
16 Nebraska Cornhuskers .3976

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Good until 11. Again. Thought the lack of strength from Oregon State against Arizona State would knock them down one, but steady week-to-week.

Projected BCS Standings: Oregon Will Grab No. 3 Spot in Fourth BCS Rankings of 2012

It feels like it’s about time. After three weeks of watching teams pass it by, Oregon will finally return the favor — and will pass Notre Dame for the No. 3 spot in tomorrow’s BCS standings.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

A victim of poor computer rankings as a result of somewhat lacking strength of schedule, a victory over USC should do the trick for Oregon, giving the Ducks the boost they need in all three components to pass Notre Dame tomorrow.

Just like in weeks past, however, Oregon will continue to trail No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Kansas State, which will both retain their spots occupied last weekend. But watch carefully — the distance between Oregon and Kansas State will begin to shrink tomorrow. How much it shrinks will be vitally important to any hope the Ducks have of catching the Wildcats for that elusive to this point No. 2 spot.

After Notre Dame’s tense, close victory over Pittsburgh the Fighting Irish will fall to No. 4, but will not fall too far behind the Ducks for the No. 3 spot, still well within reach of a title game berth if two of the three teams ahead of them should slip up.

Georgia’s big victory over Ole Miss combined with LSU’s loss to Alabama should bring the Bulldogs into the BCS top five for the first time this season, making Georgia the class of the one-loss teams fighting for BCS hopes as the season hits its home stretch.

The Bulldogs’ appearance only begins a cavalcade of SEC squads that help round out the top 10, as Florida will likely climb back to No. 6, followed by LSU and South Carolina.

Pesky and undefeated Louisville will likely crack the top-nine this week, getting just enough from their victory over Temple to pass by idle Florida State, which is likely to land at No. 10.

Oregon State and Oklahoma are likely to round out the top 12 in some order, bunched

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Four (November 4th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 Florida Gators
7 LSU Tigers
8 South Carolina Gamecocks
9 Louisville Cardinals
10 Florida State Seminoles
11 Oklahoma Sooners
12 Oregon State Beavers

BCS Computer Rankings Week Four: LSU, Oklahoma State Tie At the Top

LSU joins Oklahoma State at the top of the BCS computers this week, prospering as a result of a 9-6 victory over Alabama.

Alabama doesn’t fall far in the computers, either, as the Tide remain at the No. 3 spot in the aggregate, although at a lower total score.

The biggest jump of the week belongs to Oregon, who now enjoys a .720 computer aggregate as compared to their .490 just last week.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Four (November 6)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 Oklahoma St. LSU Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St. LSU LSU
2 LSU Oklahoma St. LSU LSU Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St.
3 Boise St. Stanford Oklahoma Alabama Alabama Alabama
4 Alabama Oklahoma Alabama Oklahoma Arkansas Boise St.
5 Stanford Boise St. Boise St. Arkansas Boise St. Oklahoma
6 Oklahoma Alabama Stanford Boise St. Oklahoma Arkansas

And what the aggregate BCS computer rankings were:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week Four (November 6)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1t Oklahoma State Cowboys .980
1t LSU Tigers .980
3 Alabama Crimson Tide .900
4t Boise State Broncos .850
4t Oklahoma Sooners .850
6 Arkansas Razorbacks .780
7 Stanford Cardinal .770
8 Oregon Ducks .720
9 Clemson Tigers .640
10 Kansas State Wildcats .620
11 Texas Longhorns .610
12 South Carolina Gamecocks .550