Second 2013 BCS Rankings: Oregon Laps Florida State For No. 2 After One Week

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The fight at the top of the BCS rankings got a little less competitive just one week after Oregon lagged behind Florida State by just .003 in the BCS for No. 2 last week.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
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Yes, after one week of simmering controversy over the fact that Florida State was No. 2 in the BCS but No. 3 in both polls, Oregon storms right ahead of the Seminoles for the No. 2 spot. And it’s not nearly as close this week.

A strong showing in the computers gives Oregon the No. 2 spot by more than .030, more than 10 times the lead Florida State had last weekend. Can Florida State make up that ground? That’ll be the question moving forward.

After Missouri’s loss this weekend, we were expecting some shifting in the next part of the BCS, but unexpectedly, Stanford’s showing across the board was enough to push the one-loss Cardinal past undefeated Baylor to No. 5, while Baylor rests at No. 6. Baylor was largely unable to close the gap on Stanford in the computers, lagging .19 behind the Cardinal in the computer aggregate, which was enough to give Stanford No. 5.

Miami bows at No. 7, Clemson is in at No. 8 and Missouri falls only four spots to No. 9 after losing to South Carolina, which themselves climbs a handful of spots, but nearly as many as we had anticipated.

Oklahoma is back into the top-10 at No. 10, while Auburn is steady at No. 11 and Texas A&M rounds out the top 12 after climbing four impressive spots in one week.

Of interest — No. 16 Fresno State stays one spot ahead of No. 17 Northern Illinois for the second straight week, as expected. Can the Bulldogs hold off the Huskies in a year where a BCS buster seems all the more likely? It’ll be a chase to the spot if both finish undefeated.

With just six weeks of BCS rankings left ever, we’re in the most important stretch of the season. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the second BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week Two — October 27th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9937
2 Oregon Ducks .9517
3 Florida State Seminoles .9211
4 Ohio State Buckeyes .8840
5 Stanford Cardinal .7918
6 Baylor Bears .7645
7 Miami Hurricanes .7560
8 Clemson Tigers .6687
9 Missouri Tigers .6096
10 Oklahoma Sooners .6064
11 Auburn Tigers .6025
12 Texas A&M Aggies .4812
13 LSU Tigers .4630
14 South Carolina Gamecocks .4486
15 Texas Tech Red Raiders .3749
16 Fresno State Bulldogs .3669

Some thoughts:

Harris Interactive Poll Week Nine: Stanford’s Leap Makes A Statement

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Stanford’s leap from No. 8 to No. 6 in this week’s Harris Interactive College Football Poll is the highlight of a all-new Harris Poll from 104 voters.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 27

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2590 .996
2 Oregon Ducks 2492 .958
3 Florida State Seminoles 2386 .918
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 2301 .885
5 Baylor Bears 2130 .819
6 Stanford Cardinal 2035 .783
7 Miami Hurricanes 1997 .768
8 Clemson Tigers 1767 .780
9 Missouri Tigers 1510 .581
10 Oklahoma Sooners 1475 .567
11 Auburn Tigers 1453 .559
12 LSU Tigers 1408 .542

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Nine: Baylor Being Heard

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Though Baylor’s ranking is unchanged in this week’s USA Today Coaches’ Poll, the Bears are certainly making their case as the calendar approaches November.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 27

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1542 .995
2 Oregon Ducks 1483 .957
3 Florida State Seminoles 1419 .915
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 1375 .887
5 Baylor Bears 1293 .834
6 Miami Hurricanes 1190 .768
7 Stanford Cardinal 1182 .763
8 Clemson Tigers 1064 .686
9 Oklahoma Sooners 933 .602
10 Missouri Tigers 834 .538
11 Auburn Tigers 804 .519
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys 803 .518

Projected BCS Standings: Oregon To Claim No. 2 In Second BCS Standings of 2013

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Time seems to run out slowly when you’re making a chase for a BCS bid. Whether it’s on the clock to hold on to the last-second victory or the weeks ticking slowly by in the last BCS year.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

Teams from around the country had little trouble dispatching of less difficult foes, but for a few teams, the time needed to get victories on Saturday must have seemed to move extra slow.

And in the case of Missouri, a crushing loss was probably already a death sentence for the season as far as a national title game bid is concerned.

So what else, if anything, did we learn this week? Mostly that the nation’s top BCS teams in its first iteration — Alabama, Oregon and Florida State — are very good. This week, like last week, we’ll see a fight to the finish for No. 2 between Oregon and Florida State.

The better victory this week belongs to the Ducks and not the Seminoles, and with that in mind, expect Oregon to make enough headway in the computers and the human polls to end the Seminoles one-week run at No. 2. Oregon is projected to take back that spot this week.

Elsewhere, the Ducks’ Pac-12 mates Stanford and Big 12 surprise Baylor will be the likely beneficiaries of the Missouri loss, as the Cardinal and Bears will fight for the No. 5 spot, along with Miami. Also look out for Oklahoma, fresh off a victory over previous No. 10 Texas Tech.

An interesting fight is also breaking out between Fresno State and Northern Illinois. Fresno State might remain ahead of Northern Illinois after the Bulldogs finished of San Diego State in OT and the Huskies had an easy victory, mostly because of the lateness of Fresno’s game. But the truly interesting part will come when the BCS rankings wind down. Who will be in front? For now we’re projecting that the Huskies will, even with Fresno possibly taking these first two weeks as the leader in the BCS buster clubhouse.

It’ll all be somewhat familiar when the second BCS rankings are released tomorrow, but with some changes that could play into the chase for the title game when the season winds up. The minutia becomes all the more important this time of year. Good thing we’re here to take a look at it.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Two (October 27)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
6 Baylor Bears
7 Miami Hurricanes
8 Clemson Tigers
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Missouri Tigers
12 Auburn Tigers

Projected 2014 BCS Bowls — October 27

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A first set of BCS rankings does have the tendency to crystallize a few things about the chase for BCS bowl bids when the season is out. Who deserves any of the 10 slots available? But more importantly, who is in best shape to grab them?

BCS Bowl Projections
Bowl Matchup
Title Game Alabama vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl Stanford vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl Missouri vs. Clemson
Orange Bowl Florida State vs. Louisville
Fiesta Bowl Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
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A first BCS rankings might not answer all these questions, but it at least gives a good sense of where the conversation is headed. And, certainly, another weekend of games will have lots to say about the next step in this chat.

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide (BCS No. 1) vs. Oregon Ducks (BCS No. 2)

Comment: When conference foes prove little to no obstacle to two of the best teams in the country, we can feel relatively confident that there’s not much wrong with the Crimson Tide and Ducks. Is there any one in the country who could pose a threat to this potential title game meeting? Sure, Florida State is sitting right there, but if these two win out, it seems like a foregone conclusion that this is our national title tandem.

Rose Bowl: Stanford Cardinal (At-large selection) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten champion)

Comment: Escaping with a victory over Oregon State might have been more important than it seemed on the surface to the Cardinal, given the precarious place they find themselves in. With a home game against Oregon looming and a Pac-12 full of potential upsets, the victory gave Stanford a much needed steadying victory and possible helped the Cardinal on its way to a Rose Bowl. For Ohio State, the name of the game is win out and hope out to not land in the Rose Bowl, but in the title game.

Sugar Bowl: Missouri Tigers (At-large selection) vs. Clemson Tigers (At-large selection)

Comment: A loss decimates Missouri’s hopes at a national title game bid, but could they still land in the Sugar Bowl? It’s possible. Especially with Auburn’s tough schedule upcoming and the bevy of current and upcoming two-loss teams in the SEC, the Tigers might still have the best shot at not only a bid in the SEC title game, but also a bid in a potential BCS bowl as a two-loss, 11-win SEC team. Clemson would play a nice counterpart to Missouri in a Sugar Bowl.

Orange Bowl: Florida State Seminoles (ACC champion) vs. Louisville Cardinals (AAC champion)

Comment: Florida State cruised to victory, as did Louisville, but one team’s fight to get to a BCS bowl is the more difficult, while the other’s is a fight to hope that things fall their way and they don’t land here at all. After suffering the first loss of their season, Louisville must hope that UCF stumbles badly along the way, and the Cardinals can sneak by for a BCS title game bid. Florida State is hoping that a national title game is in their future.

Fiesta Bowl: Northern Illinois Huskies (At-large selection) vs. Baylor Bears (Big 12 champion)

Comment: All Baylor does is score points and win these days, as does Northern Illinois recently. Both teams are undefeated and loving life on the loss-less side of things. As the AAC’s eventual conference champ is likely to be underwhelingly ranked in the BCS standings, things look bright for a potential BCS buster, and Northern Illinois seems to fit the billing just right. The Huskies’ competition will come from Fresno State, but expect Northern Illinois to prevail in the BCS standings when it counts even if the Bulldogs run the table. Baylor will hope to find its way into a BCS title game bid, but if not, the Fiesta Bowl is the landing spot as a host.

Heisman Watch Week Nine: Bryce Petty Makes His Move

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Johnny Manziel

Bouncing back from losses defines a season in college football, and for Johnny Manziel, Saturday gave him and Texas A&M a chance to do just that. In a solid victory over SEC foe Vanderbilt, Manziel passed for 305 yards and four touchdowns to give the Aggies just what they needed after suffering a tough second loss last weekend at the hands of Auburn.

Teddy Bridgewater

A nice bounce back victory for Louisville and Teddy Bridgewater keeps Bridgewater’s Heisman hopes alive at least for the time being, as the senior quarterback passed for 344 yards and three touchdowns against a much outmatched USF team on Saturday. After a loss to UCF last week, Bridgewater needed this kind of coasting performance in an easy win and got it. We’ll see if his Heisman stock can remain stable in the weeks to come.

Bryce Petty

In leading one of the nation’s most explosive offenses and the Big 12’s surprise season of the year thus far, quarterback Bryce Petty has played a huge role in Baylor’s rise to national prominence in 2013. Saturday was no different for the junior quarterback, as he submitted a 430-yard, three-touchdown day against lesser Kansas to run Baylor’s record to 7-0. Plus, Petty didn’t even play the full extent of the game, as he has most of the season.

Marcus Mariota  

What could have turned out to be a tough test against Pac-12 foes instead became a bit of a romp for Oregon, as UCLA proved less of a test in the second half than the first half suggested. For Marcus Mariota, the game was something of a wash, with the quarterback passing for just one touchdown and 230 yards and rushing for less than 20, far from his season averages. But still enough to lead his team to victory and give Oregon with a convincing resume win.

Jameis Winston

A cruising victory for Florida State and Jameis Winston was just what the Seminoles needed coming off a season-defining victory over Clemson last week. Winston passed for 292 yards and three touchdowns in FSU’s win over North Carolina State. The 49-17 victory over the Wolfpack came in a game that could have easily served as a trap for the Seminoles, and continued Winston’s powerful performance in his freshman year.

Third BCS Rankings of 2012: Notre Dame Grabs Slight Edge Over Oregon, Claims No. 3 Spot

Three weeks into the BCS standings and we’re set up for the kind of controversial finish the BCS is accustomed to creating. In the waning years of the system, we might as well be used to this by now.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Oregon Ducks
5 LSU Tigers
Scroll down for more

Oregon, a team that has done nothing wrong, is once again jumped in the BCS rankings this week, as Notre Dame claims the BCS’s No. 3 spot. Oregon’s position is unchanged from last weekend, when they trailed Florida and Kansas State, but with Florida dropping a big game to Georgia, many might have expected the Ducks to see a one-spot bump.

Instead, Notre Dame, the victor in a key battle with Oklahoma, leaps past Oregon.

Quietly, Kansas State is the new No. 2 team after Florida’s loss, and is now comfortably ahead of the Ducks. Not a distance that Oregon cannot make up in the coming weeks, but one that is surprisingly large given the disparity of the rankings in the polls — where Oregon is a sturdy No. 2 and Kansas State is a sturdy No. 3.

LSU rounds out the top five, staying just ahead of resurgent No. 6 Georgia. Florida, the Bulldogs’ victim, lands at No. 7.

Then it gets a little nutty. Teams from here on down are in desperate need of some help to move up, and are well on the outside looking in on the national title picture. South Carolina, on the strength of a huge boost from the computers, lands at No. 8 despite a lower ranking in the human element.

Florida State, the more convincing favorite of the pollsters in this ranking area, lands at No. 9, just ahead of No. 10 Louisville, up big from last week’s No. 16 ranking.

One-loss Oregon State falls from No. 7 to No. 11 after suffering their first loss to Washington, but stays among the top-12 on the strength of still-impressive computer rankings. Oklahoma rounds out the top 12.

A third iteration of the BCS and we’re already looking at controversy and intrigue. Let’s find out how it all plays out. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the third BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Three — October 28th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9759
2 Kansas State Wildcats .9400
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .9147
4 Oregon Ducks .9136
5 LSU Tigers .8163
6 Georgia Bulldogs .7753
7 Florida Gators .7604
8 South Carolina Gamecocks .5968
9 Florida State Seminoles .5743
10 Louisville Cardinals .5661
11 Oregon State Beavers .5559
12 Oklahoma Sooners .5454
13 Clemson Tigers .5095
14 Stanford Cardinal .4863
15 Mississippi State Bulldogs .3913
16 Texas A&M Aggies .3593

Some thoughts:

Harris Interactive Poll Week Nine: Kansas State, Notre Dame, LSU each up one spot

Kansas State is your new No. 3 team in the latest Harris Interactive Poll, which closely resembles the week’s Coaches’ Poll.

Much like in today’s USA Today polling, Kansas State and Notre Dame claim the No. 3 and No. 4 spots comfortably with Florida out of the way. LSU rounds out the top five, while Georgia bounces up to No. 6 after topping the Gators.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 28

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2868 .997
2 Oregon Ducks 2725 .948
3 Kansas State Wildcats 2656 .924
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2553 .888
5 LSU Tigers 2382 .829
6 Georgia Bulldogs 2205 .767
7 Florida State Seminoles 2193 .763
8 Florida Gators 2061 .717
9 Clemson Tigers 1917 .667
10 Louisville Cardinals 1714 .596
11 South Carolina Gamecocks 1588 .552
12 Oklahoma Sooners 1473 .512

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Nine: Notre Dame, Kansas State see big gains

A Florida loss mixed with impressive victories from Kansas State and Notre Dame once again shrunk Oregon’s hold on No. 2, but the Ducks remain 25 points ahead of No. 3 Kansas State this weekend. Notre Dame lands at No. 4 after their victory over Oklahoma, which falls just to No. 12 with the loss.

Georgia climbs to No. 6 in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll on the strength of their upset victory over Florida, but has plenty of work left to do in the coming weeks if they hope to climb into the national title discussion.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 28

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1475 1.000
2 Oregon Ducks 1391 .943
3 Kansas State Wildcats 1366 .926
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1307 .886
5 LSU Tigers 1225 .831
6 Georgia Bulldogs 1149 .779
7 Florida State Seminoles 1121 .760
8 Florida Gators 1024 .694
9 Clemson Tigers 976 .662
10 Louisville Cardinals 888 .602
11 South Carolina Gamecocks 838 .568
12 Oklahoma Sooners 758 .514

Projected BCS Standings: Notre Dame Set For No. 3 Spot In Third BCS Rankings of 2012

It seemed like every time you blinked Saturday, another undefeated, ranked team fell. It was almost contagious. The result? A set of BCS rankings that will not resemble anything we’ve seen to this point.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

With one key exception, of course, Alabama at No. 1. There no doubt there, but after that, the shocks get going, and get going quickly.

And yes, when the BCS rankings are released tomorrow, Oregon is likely in store for yet another shocker.

With Alabama a steady No. 1 and Kansas State up to a more comfortable No. 2 than Florida had enjoyed, Notre Dame will sneak by the Ducks, which seem to be in the slow lane of the BCS highway.

Passing to the Ducks’ left will be the Irish, on the strength of the computer boost they’ll see because of a victory over a strong computer-profiled Oklahoma squad. But with an already sturdy computer ranking, Notre Dame’s prize for a victory over the Sooners will truly be in the human element. Notre Dame is likely to eat up a big portion of the votes that went the Gators’ way because of their primetime showing. That will be enough to make up the .04 deficit to the Ducks the Irish saw last weekend, and good enough for No. 3.

So Oregon lands at No. 4, trailed by No. 5 Georgia, which charges hard into the top five with a victory over Florida. LSU and Florida keep themselves in the conversation at No. 6 and No. 7, respectively. Then things get interesting.

The teams that used to occupy the spots to come — Oregon State, Oklahoma, USC — all lost. So we’re going to see a real shakeup here. First in line tomorrow will be South Carolina, the beneficiary of already strong computer support, and, let’s face it, some room to move up with the losses around the country.

Florida State, having trouble with their computer ratings, climb to No. 9, and could be higher if not for really weak computer support. Oklahoma lost, yes, but anyone that watched the game knows the final score did not reflect the game itself, and the Sooners should land softly within the top 10 this week despite a second loss.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Three (October 28)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 LSU Tigers
7 Florida Gators
8 South Carolina Gamecocks
9 Florida State Seminoles
10 Oklahoma Sooners
11 Louisville Cardinals
12 Oregon State Beavers