First 2013 BCS Rankings: Alabama & FSU Lead Gang Into The Final Year

 

Just one BCS standings in and we already have a rumble at the top on our hands — the BCS isn’t going to leave without a fight.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Oregon Ducks
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

As expected, No. 2 Florida State  and No. 2 Oregon bunch together tightly in the race for the No. 2 spot in the inaugural BCS standings of 2013, both chasing convincing No. 1 Alabama.

The Seminoles’ victory over Clemson combined with Oregon’s long-standing position as the nation’s No. 2 team conspired to provide us with some real drama that could continue to play out the rest of the season if the two squads continue to win.

Oregon remained at No. 2 in the polls, but Florida State took full advantage of some major upsets around the board, grabbing the best computer support in the country and No. 3 in both the Coaches’ and Harris polls. For now, Florida State lands just .0028 ahead of Oregon.

If Florida State had received even a .01 smaller share of the computer rankings, Oregon would have been your No. 2 team this week.

But what if the Ducks and Seminoles don’t keep winning? The first BCS standings have given us a window into what we could expect. Ohio State’s almost quiet No. 4 comes as no surprise, as the Buckeyes have run through the early part of the season undefeated.

No. 5 Missouri and No. 8 Baylor are some of the handful of surprises in the first set of BCS rankings, as is No. 7 Miami. All three teams were the beneficiaries of the upset-filled weekend, and Missouri carries a very strong computer ranking into the BCS part of the season.

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We’re in the home stretch now, believe it or not. Just seven weeks left of the BCS. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the first BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week One — October 20th

Rank	Team	BCS Score
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	.9841
2	Florida State Seminoles	.9348
3	Oregon Ducks	.9320
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	.8553
5	Missouri Tigers	.8219
6	Stanford Cardinal	.7414
7	Miami Hurricanes	.7200
8	Baylor Bears	.7120
9	Clemson Tigers	.6249
10	Texas Tech Red Raiders	.6220
11	Auburn Tigers	.5058
12	UCLA Bruins	.4807
13	LSU Tigers	.4552
14	Virginia Tech Hokies	.4408
15	Oklahoma Sooners	.4204
16	Texas A&M Aggies	.3666

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Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • Well, we predicted the margin, but got the order wrong. Florida State in at No. 2, just ahead of projected No. 2 Oregon, which actually gets the No. 3 slot. That’ll be a nice toss-up for the next few weeks.
• It’s fascinating what’s happening with Jeff Sagarin’s ratings over at USA Today. Did he change his formula? The clues point to yes, says Jerry Palm.

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BCS Computer Rankings Week One: Florida State Rides In At No. 1

Florida State starts the season as the top team in the nation, according to the computers. Alabama pulls in the second-best ranking, while Missouri captures the third-best in the nation. Oregon lags at No. 4.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week One (October 20)

Rank	Anderson	Billingsley	Colley	Massey	Sagarin	Wolfe
1	Florida St.	Alabama	Missouri	Florida St.	Florida St.	Alabama
2	Alabama	Oregon	Florida St.	Missouri	Alabama	Florida St.
3	Missouri	Ohio St.	Alabama	Alabama	Missouri	Missouri
4	Oregon	Stanford	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon
5	Ohio St.	Florida St.	Ohio St.	Auburn	N. Illinois	Virginia Tech
6	Stanford	Missouri	Stanford	Stanford	Oregon St.	Auburn

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And the aggregate BCS computer rankings:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week One (October 20)

Rank	Team	Share of Vote
1	Florida State Seminoles	.980
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	.960
3	Missouri Tigers	.930
4	Oregon Ducks	.880
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	.790
6	Stanford Cardinal	.760
7	Auburn Tigers	.750
8	Virginia Tech Hokies	.680
9	Clemson Tigers	.670
10	Miami Hurricanes	.630
11	Texas Tech Red Raiders	.600
12	Baylor Bears	.550

Harris Interactive Poll Week Eight: Florida State Leads An Upward Charge

Much like in the Coaches’ Poll, Florida State grabs a big chunk of support from the Harris Interactive Poll voters, sliding into the third spot and challenging Oregon for the No. 2 spot.

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Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 20

Rank	Team	Votes	Share of Vote
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	2615	.996
2	Oregon Ducks	2520	.960
3	Florida State Seminoles	2401	.915
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	2321	.884
5	Baylor Bears	2038	.776
6	Missouri Tigers	2026	.772
7	Miami Hurricanes	2008	.765
8	Stanford Cardinal	1952	.744
9	Texas Tech Red Raiders	1662	.633
10	Clemson Tigers	1616	.616
11	UCLA Bruins	1323	.504
12	LSU Tigers	1212	.462

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Eight: Florida State Makes Its Move

Florida State’s win over Clemson gives the Seminoles just the bounce they need to jump to No. 3 in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll right before the first BCS standings.

A weekend of upsets and surprises allows for a completely different looking Coaches’ Poll on this first BCS weekend of the 2013 season, but no shift is more important or impressive than Florida State’s, as the Seminoles will make a big play tonight for No. 2 in the first BCS standings of the season.

Elsewhere, Baylor, Miami and Missouri hop into the top eight with ease after teams clear out of the way.

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USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 20

Rank	Team	Votes	Share of Vote
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	1544	.996
2	Oregon Ducks	1482	.956
3	Florida State Seminoles	1410	.909
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	1382	.892
5	Baylor Bears	1255	.810
6	Miami Hurricanes	1186	.765
7	Missouri Tigers	1184	.765
8	Stanford Cardinal	1117	.721
9	Texas Tech Red Raiders	981	.633
10	Clemson Tigers	913	.589
11	UCLA Bruins	710	.458
12	Oklahoma Sooners	695	.448

Projected BCS Standings: FSU, Oregon Already Jockeying For No. 2 In First BCS Standings of 2013

What is it that you don’t like about the BCS? The time to complain is kind of running out … this week marks the beginning of the end for the system, the era and the formula as we know it.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Oregon Ducks
3	Florida State Seminoles
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

And wouldn’t you know it, on our very first weekend of our very last BCS year, we’re going to get some drama right off the bat. There’s no doubt what victory this weekend was the most impressive, that’s Florida State with a big win over previous No. 3 Clemson.

And yet, we have last week’s and this young season’s No. 2, Oregon, as dominating as ever, still undefeated and still putting up huge performances week after week. So which will be No. 2 when the BCS is finally released tomorrow?

Well, one of the things people have enjoyed complaining about most in this era of the BCS is voter laziness. And though tomorrow will likely show a nice push toward supporting Florida State’s superb record thus far, we’re projecting that it will be Oregon at No. 2 when the BCS is released on the strength of the voter support that remains in the Ducks’ camp. Even with the expected bump in computer poll support, Florida State might still end up just short of Oregon.

That might quell some of the traditional anger that could be associated with a shock like Florida State at No. 2 after barely cracking the top five at all this year. But even if Florida State does make up the minuscule ground they’re projected to still be lacking against Oregon (currently less than .0030 points) — the future is actually brighter in Oregon’s corner. This is a conversation will hold some water for much of the rest of the season if the teams keep reeling off wins.

Elsewhere, expect surprise powers Baylor, Missouri and Miami to be dancing inside the top 12 this week, with Baylor and Missouri taking cracks at the top five spots, where as they were outside that potential territory just a week ago. Teams like UCLA, LSU, Clemson, Louisville, South Carolina and Texas A&M will suffer for poorly timed losses on this first BCS weekend of 2013, though bounce backs are more than possible for most of those teams, including for Stanford, which dispatched of UCLA.

We’re in it for final time this year. It’s going to get even more interesting than this, and we’re going to be covering it all. Strap if for one hell of a last ride.

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Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 20)

Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Oregon Ducks
3	Florida State Seminoles
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Missouri Tigers
6	Baylor Bears
7	Stanford Cardinal
8	Clemson Tigers
9	Miami Hurricanes
10	LSU Tigers
11	UCLA Bruins
12	Texas A&M Aggies

Projected 2014 BCS Bowls — October 20

One final time in college football we get to decide who plays for a national title on a set of five bowl games whose purpose is stated simply — match the two best teams at the end of the season for the national title. Do we know who those teams are yet?

BCS Bowl Projections
Bowl	Matchup
Title Game	Alabama vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl	Stanford vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl	Missouri vs. Clemson
Orange Bowl	Florida State vs. Louisville
Fiesta Bowl	Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
Scroll down for more

And better yet, do we know where eight other teams constrained to playing somewhat of a second fiddle to those national title contenders would land if the season ended today? What about in a few weeks? The beauty of the BCS was always the drama it engendered by simply existing. This year will be no different.

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BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide (BCS No. 1) vs. Oregon Ducks (BCS No. 2)

Comment: Oregon has its chance to make the kind of national statement it needs against Stanford. A team like Florida State, however, just got its chance. And it took full advantage, but until that time comes for Oregon, it had better look in its rearview (or front-view, depending on how tomorrow plays out) mirror and watch carefully as the rest of the pack chases this bid.

Rose Bowl: Stanford Cardinal (At-large selection) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten champion)

Comment: Stanford did exactly what it needed to do against UCLA — bounce back from a disheartening loss to underrated (and truthfully underperforming) Utah with a big win over a top-10 team. Beyond the mental and psychological impact such bounce-back can have, the Cardinal are against clearly in the running for a bid to a BCS bowl. Lost in all this conversation is undefeated Ohio State, which might miss the title game by the skin of their teeth

Sugar Bowl: Missouri Tigers (At-large selection) vs. Clemson Tigers (At-large selection)

Comment: Tigers have been something to behold this season — the up-and-down of LSU, the early dominance of Clemson and Missouri’s resurgence as a dominant national power. At least that’s what’s transpired thus far in the college football year. Missouri has been great up and down the field and has run off an undefeated start to their season. Could they pull off the undefeated SEC regular season and show down with the likes of someone like Alabama for a shot at a title game bid?

Orange Bowl: Florida State Seminoles (ACC champion) vs. Louisville Cardinals (AAC champion)

Comment: Even with their victory over Clemson, nothing is guaranteed for Florida State. Even a No. 2 in tomorrow’s BCS rankings wouldn’t be enough to secure anything. Most teams know that as the BCS era comes to an end. The shock of Louisville’s Friday night loss shouldn’t come as a season-ending blow to the Cardinals, which remain very much alive in the AAC chase for a BCS bowl bid, which comes automatically to the conference’s champion, and could land the conference in the Orange Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl: Northern Illinois Huskies (At-large selection) vs. Baylor Bears (Big 12 champion)

Comment: Name recognition goes a long way in the BCS, as does recency of success. Northern Illinois was the BCS buster du jour of 2012. Now with an undefeated start to the 2013 season, the Huskies could very much be back in the BCS hunt. The Huskies will have some competition from Fresno State this season, but when push comes to shove, knowing the Huskies will benefit the Huskies. The Fiesta Bowl will then pair the at-large selection up with the host team, the Big 12’s champion Baylor.