BCS Implications Worksheet Post-Week Ten

Down the stretch of the BCS season, a team’s opponents become an important component of a team’s overall resume to watch.

Not only does it help to define the relative strength of said team, but also has a large effect on that team’s BCS computer performance.

With that in mind, we’ve compiled a look at the BCS’s top teams and their important games — both already played and upcoming — to get a better perspective on which teams’ performances will have implications on the BCS.

Each week we’ll give the rundown for the number of teams that seem to be within striking distance of the top two spots. This week the striking distance looks to go all the way down to the No. 7 Wisconsin, who seems to be at the outermost limits of plausibility for a shot at the BCS title game.

Once again, each team is listed with their current BCS rank, record and strength of schedule (according to Jeff Sagarin’s ratings).

Below each BCS contender are their most important opponents, both which they have already played (with those results) and those upcoming.

Their opponents will also be listed with a record and their current Sagarin or BCS ranking depending on which is available. Teams will be listed in order of importance to that team’s BCS performance. Each opponent is also listed with an SOS to give you a better sense of how they might perform in the coming weeks.

BCS No. 1 Oregon Ducks (9-0) SOS: 36

Important Games Already Played

  • BCS No. 6 Stanford Cardinal (8-1) SOS: 16 — Win 52-31
  • Sagarin No. 22 USC (6-3) SOS: 9 — Win 53-32
  • Sagarin No. 28 UCLA Bruins (4-5) SOS: 4 — Win 60-13
  • Sagarin No. 33 Washington Huskies (3-6) SOS: 1 — Win 53-16
  • Sagarin No. 42 Arizona State Sun Devils (4-5) SOS: 5 — Win 42-31

Important Games Remaining

  • BCS No. 18 Arizona Wildcats (7-2) SOS: 12 — November 26th
  • Sagarin No. 24 Oregon State Beavers (4-4) SOS: 2 — December 4th
  • Sagarin No. 29 California (5-4) SOS: 7 — November 13th

BCS No. 2 Auburn Tigers (10-0) SOS: 40

Important Games Already Played

  • BCS No. 5 LSU Tigers (8-1) SOS: 15 — Win 24-17
  • BCS No. 15 Arkansas Razorbacks (7-2) SOS: 33 — Win 65-43
  • BCS No. 19 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-2) SOS: 60 — Win 17-14
  • BCS No. 23 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-3) SOS: 30 — Win 35-27

Important Games Remaining

  • BCS No. 12 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) SOS: 20 — November 26th
  • SEC Championship Game (Possible) — December 4th

BCS No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs (10-0) SOS: 62

Important Games Already Played

  • BCS No. 14 Utah Utes (8-1) SOS: 79 — Win 47-7
  • Sagarin No. 20 Baylor Bears (7-3) SOS: 44 — Win 45-10
  • Sagarin No. 24 Oregon State Beavers (4-4) SOS: 2 — Win 30-21
  • Sagarin No. 38 Air Force Falcons (6-4) SOS: 38 — Win 38-7

Important Games Remaining

  • Sagarin No. 44 San Diego State Aztecs (7-2) SOS: 112 — November 13th

BCS No. 4 Boise State Broncos (8-0) SOS: 72

Important Games Already Played

  • BCS No. 20 Virginia Tech Hokies (6-2) SOS: 80 — Win 33-30
  • Sagarin No. 24 Oregon State Beavers (4-4) SOS: 2 — Win 37-24
  • Sagarin No. 36 Hawaii Warriors (7-3) SOS: 56 — November 6th

Important Games Remaining

  • BCS No. 21 Nevada Wolfpack (8-1) SOS: 86 — November 26th

BCS No. 5 LSU Tigers (8-1) SOS: 15

Important Games Already Played

  • BCS No. 2 Auburn Tigers (10-0) SOS: 40 — Loss 24-17
  • BCS No. 12 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) SOS: 20 — Win 24-21
  • BCS No. 19 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-2) SOS: 60 — Win 29-7
  • BCS No. 22 Florida Gators (6-3) SOS: 29 — Win 33-29
  • Sagarin No. 32 North Carolina Tar Heels (6-3) SOS: 23 — Win 30-24

Important Games Remaining

  • BCS No. 15 Arkansas Razorbacks (7-2) SOS: 33 — November 27th
  • SEC Championship Game (Possible) — December 4th

BCS No. 6 Stanford Cardinal (8-1) SOS: 16

Important Games Already Played

  • BCS No. 1 Oregon Ducks (9-0) SOS: 36 — Loss 52-31
  • BCS No. 18 Arizona Wildcats (7-2) SOS: 12 –Win 42-17
  • Sagarin No. 22 USC (6-3) SOS: 9 — Win 37-35
  • Sagarin No. 28 UCLA Bruins (4-5) SOS: 4 — Win 35-0
  • Sagarin No. 33 Washington Huskies (3-6) SOS: 1 — Win 41-0

Important Games Remaining

  • Sagarin No. 24 Oregon State Beavers (4-4) SOS: 2 — November 27th
  • Sagarin No. 29 California (5-4) SOS: 7 — November 20th
  • Sagarin No. 42 Arizona State Sun Devils (4-5) SOS: 5 — November 13th

BCS No. 7 Wisconsin Badgers (8-1) SOS: 70

Important Games Already Played

  • BCS No. 9 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) SOS: 87 — Win 31-18
  • BCS No. 11 Michigan State Spartans (9-1) SOS: 72 — Loss 34-24
  • BCS No. 13 Iowa Hawkeyes (7-2) SOS: 42 — Win 31-30
  • Sagarin No. 42 Arizona State Sun Devils (4-5) SOS: 5 — Win 20-19

Important Games Remaining

  • Sagarin No. 34 Michigan Wolverines (6-3) SOS: 47 — November 20th
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Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East Rundown Week Ten

Big Ten

Conference Leader: Michigan State (9-1, 5-1)

Lurking: Wisconsin (8-1, 4-1)

Game of Last Week: Michigan 67 vs. Illinois 65. In a game that made the schools’ basketball game score from last season look paltry, Michigan outlasted the Illini in three overtimes.

Game of Next Week: Ohio State vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will have to pass the test of a suddenly rejuvenated Nittany Lions team if they want to stay alive in the crowded Big Ten race.

Bowl Eligible Teams: Michigan State Spartans, Ohio State Buckeyes, Wisconsin Badgers, Iowa Hawkeyes, Northwestern Wildcats, Michigan Wolverines, Penn State Nittany Lions.

Big 12

Conference Leaders: Nebraska (8-1, 4-1; North Division) and Oklahoma State (8-1, 4-1; South Division)

Lurking: Missouri (7-2, 3-2; North Division) and Missouri (7-2, 3-2; South Division)

Game of Last Week: Texas A&M 33 vs. Oklahoma 19. The Sooners suffer a crushing second loss in Big 12 play while the Aggies impress enough to get a spot in this week’s BCS standings.

Game of Next Week: Oklahoma State vs. Texas. On the road in Austin, the South Division-leading Cowboys will again be put to the test against a team that is usually in their spot.

Bowl Eligible Teams: Missouri Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Baylor Bears, Kansas State Wildcats, Texas A&M Aggies.

Big East

Conference Leader: Pittsburgh (5-3, 3-0)

Lurking: Syracuse (6-3, 3-2)

Game of Last Week: South Florida 28 vs. Rutgers 27. The matchup did not disappoint, as the Bulls captured their first victory over the Scarlet Knights in five tries.

Game of Next Week: Pittsburgh vs. Connecticut. The Huskies have a chance to derail the seemingly easy road ahead of the Panthers for the Big East crown with this Thursday night showdown.

Bowl Eligible Teams: None yet.

ACC, Pac-10 and SEC Rundown Week Ten

Atlantic Coast Conference

Conference Leaders: Florida State (6-3, 4-2; Atlantic Division) and Virginia Tech (7-2, 5-0; Coastal Division)

Lurking: North Carolina State (6-2, 3-2; Atlantic Division) and Miami (6-3, 4-2; Coastal Division)

Game of Last Week: North Carolina 37 vs. Florida State 35. With a chance to extend their lead on the Atlantic Division, the Seminoles botched two opportunities to put the game away and kept the race open for another week.

Game of Next Week: Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina. The Hokies are undefeated in ACC conference play, but will be tested on the road in against the Tar Heels.

Bowl Eligible Teams: Florida State Seminoles, Virginia Tech Hokies, Maryland Terrapins, North Carolina State Wolfpack, North Carolina Tar Heels, Miami Hurricanes.

Pac-10

Conference Leader: Oregon (8-0, 5-0)

Lurking: Stanford (8-1, 5-1)

Game of Last Week: USC 34 vs. Arizona State 33. For the first time this season, the Trojans were not the victims of a last-second field goal attempt and hung on for this thrilling victory.

Game of Next Week: Oregon vs. California. The chances for an upset of the Ducks are certainly dwindling, but the Bears could prove to be a tough road test for the Ducks this late in the season.

Bowl Eligible Teams: Oregon Ducks, Arizona Wildcats, Stanford Cardinal.

SEC

Conference Leaders: South Carolina (6-3, 4-3; East Division) and Auburn (10-0, 6-0; West Division)

Lurking: Florida (6-3, 4-3; East Division) and LSU (8-1, 5-1; West Division)

Game of Last Week: LSU 24 vs. Alabama 21. The Crimson Tide still had a sliver of hope to take the 2010 season all the way to a repeat national title, but those hopes came crashing down on Saturday as LSU beat the Tide with fourth-down gambles and gritty play.

Game of Next Week: South Carolina vs. Florida. This one is for the East Division crown and a berth in the SEC title game.

Bowl Eligible Teams: LSU Tigers, Auburn Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Arkansas Razorbacks, South Carolina Gamecocks, Florida Gators.

Fourth BCS Rankings of 2010: Top Four Unchanged, LSU Slides Into Fifth Spot

For the first time this season, we don’t have a new No. 1 team in this week’s BCS standings, but this weekend’s set of upsets brought plenty of change to the fourth BCS standings of the season.

Yes, the top four remain the same, however, after four of the BCS’s top 12 teams were beaten on Saturday we have a very different set of rankings to ponder.

The changes start on a small scale, as TCU uses a boost from the human element polls to build on their lead on No. 4 Boise State. The Horned Frogs also gain on the continuing 1-2 combination of Oregon and Auburn, although still remain a great distance behind the Ducks and Tigers.

The distance between Auburn and Oregon also shrunk to a surprisingly small margin, despite Auburn’s poor SOS quality victory over Chattanooga over the weekend.

After last weekend’s No. 5 Alabama lost to LSU it was expected that a new team would take that spot this weekend and not surprisingly, that team was the LSU Tigers themselves.

The Tigers were the beneficiaries of some very strong computer help to leap over Wisconsin, who was ranked ahead of them in both polls and claim the No. 5 spot.

The Badgers were also eclipsed by the computer strength of Stanford, who also landed behind Wisconsin in both human polls. The Cardinal claim the No. 6 spot, and the Badgers come in right behind them at No. 7.

Stanford uses a nationally televised beatdown of conference foe Arizona to gain support in the human polls and gain an impressive amount in the computer polls to have the largest jump among the top ten teams in the BCS standings.

Nebraska falls a spot despite being the only top-12 Big 12 team to win on Saturday, seeing their computer support drop off slightly.

Ohio State and Oklahoma State round out the top ten, followed by the third one-loss Big Ten team, Michigan State and Alabama.

Iowa, the lowest ranked of the four Big Ten one-loss bunch — and the only one with a second (non-conference) loss on their record — continues to climb back up the rankings after their loss to Wisconsin two weeks ago and lands at No. 13.

So with all of that in mind, here’s this week’s set of BCS rankings:

BCS Standings Week Four – November 7th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Oregon Ducks .9638
2 Auburn Tigers .9611
3 TCU Horned Frogs .9259
4 Boise State Broncos .8662
5 LSU Tigers .8170
6 Stanford Cardinal .7454
7 Wisconsin Badgers .7349
8 Nebraska Cornhuskers .7298
9 Ohio State Buckeyes .6613
10 Oklahoma State Cowboys .6211
11 Michigan State Spartans .6180
12 Alabama Crimson Tide .5490
13 Iowa Hawkeyes .5223
14 Utah Utes .4669
15 Arkansas Razorbacks .4569
16 Oklahoma Sooners .3900

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Pretty good set, projected top five correctly, and No. 7 and 9. Stanford gets even more love than I had projected from the computers, and uses it to jump the Badgers.
    • Was one off on most of the rest of the field, interesting set of rankings if you ask me. Stay tuned.
  • The bunch of four Big Ten one-loss teams are very fluid, and it could come down to showmanship and performance when we have to decide a Big Ten winner at the end of this season.

Harris Interactive Poll Week Ten: TCU and LSU Make Some Noise

As in the Coaches’ Poll, TCU is able to leap over Boise State and take the third spot in this week’s Harris Interactive poll after their convincing victory over Utah.

LSU uses the strength of their victory over Alabama to climb six spots to No. 6, while Wisconsin takes over the No. 5 spot from Alabama.

Oregon loses four points in this week’s poll, while Auburn gains one — both slight changes that should have little effect on tonight’s BCS standings.

The big losers this weekend all see their stocks plummet — Utah from No. 6 to No. 15; Alabama from No. 5 to No. 11; Oklahoma from No. 9 to No. 16 and Missouri from No. 15 to No. 20.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – November 7th

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Oregon Ducks 2820 .989
2 Auburn Tigers 2684 .942
3 TCU Horned Frogs 2620 .919
4 Boise State Broncos 2585 .907
5 Wisconsin Badgers 2229 .782
6 LSU Tigers 2221 .779
7 Ohio State Buckeyes 2145 .753
8 Stanford Cardinal 2134 .749
9 Nebraska Cornhuskers 1984 .696
10 Michigan State Spartans 1682 .590
11 Alabama Crimson Tide 1627 .571
12 Iowa Hawkeyes 1584 .556

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Ten: TCU Leapfrogs Boise State into Third Position

The coaches were as impressed by TCU’s dominating victory over Utah as the rest of the nation seemed to be, and did the Horned Frogs well in this week’s Coaches’ Poll, giving TCU the third position for the first time this year.

Boise State, No. 2 just a few weeks ago, now sit at No. 4, although the distance between the Broncos and Horned Frogs is a slight 10 points. The Broncos got one more first-place vote than the Horned Frogs, but will come in at No. 4 this week.

Wisconsin and LSU benefit most from the plethora of losses by the group of one-loss BCS conference schools, and come in at No. 5 and No. 6 respectively.

After losing to highly ranked squads, both Alabama and Utah see their support fall sharply, however the Crimson Tide retain more support than the Utes, falling to No. 12, while the Utes fall to No. 15.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – November 7th

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Oregon Ducks 1463 .992
2 Auburn Tigers 1389 .942
3 TCU Horned Frogs 1340 .908
4 Boise State Broncos 1330 .902
5 Wisconsin Badgers 1184 .803
6 LSU Tigers 1153 .782
7 Ohio State Buckeyes 1123 .761
8 Nebraska Cornhuskers 1067 .723
9 Stanford Cardinal 1058 .717
10 Michigan State Spartans 876 .594
11 Oklahoma State Cowboys 832 .564
12 Alabama Crimson Tide 791 .536

Projected BCS Rankings: TCU and LSU State Their Case in Fourth BCS Standings

Update: The fourth BCS standings have been released. Take a look HERE.

We thought we had it all figured out.

If Auburn, Oregon or Alabama won out, they’d be headed to the BCS National Championship Game — and it looked like that would be the case when Auburn and Alabama met in the Iron Bowl.

But LSU had other ideas. And TCU wasn’t happy to just let that happen without a say.

Both took full advantage of huge opportunities on Saturday, beating conference rivals in the day’s marquee matchups, and doing a number on the assumptions of the college football nation.

Other favorites from around the country had mixed results, the worst of which coming from the Big 12, where one BCS top-12 team escaped with an overtime victory and two others fell victim to shocking upsets.

Big Ten teams fared slightly better, as Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin were all victorious.

So what does it mean for tomorrow’s BCS standings?

Well, as far as the top of the rankings go, we won’t see much change. The top four will look quite familiar to the college football fan when the BCS is released tomorrow, and will likely remain unchanged.

Oregon will stay ahead of Auburn — who will not get any extra love for beating FCS Chattanooga.

TCU is likely to creep forward towards Oregon and Auburn — likely even eclipsing the .9000 mark when their average is released — but will not eclipse either the Tigers or the Ducks.

Boise is likely to go in the opposite direction, as TCU is likely to siphon votes away from the Broncos in the human element polls, and will remain at No. 4.

That’s where the familiarity will end though, as the top four will be visited by a new neighbor at No. 5, as LSU will likely see their victory over Alabama do wonders for their BCS standing. The Tigers were already a darling of the BCS computers, but will now see their support matched by the human element voters — who will reward the Tigers’ impressive victory over the Crimson Tide.

That strong group of one-loss BCS conference teams, now led by LSU, will fill in the spots next, likely occupying most of the rest of the top-12, if not all of it.

Nebraska, who saw their BCS computer support skyrocket after beating Missouri last weekend, will likely bow right behind the Tigers.

Then the space that had been occupied by a group of one-loss BCS conference favorites will see their ranks fall by two, as Alabama and Oklahoma suffer from their losses.

Wisconsin, Stanford and Ohio State benefit most, after teams ahead of them took surprising second losses on the weekend.

Stanford is likely to be the beneficiary of some extra love from the human voters after they beat ranked Arizona on national television, and a definite computer bump as well.

So with all of that in mind, here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:15 ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Four (November 7th)

Rank Team
1 Oregon Ducks
2 Auburn Tigers
3 TCU Horned Frogs
4 Boise State Broncos
5 LSU Tigers
6 Nebraska Cornhuskers
7 Wisconsin Badgers
8 Stanford Cardinal
9 Ohio State Buckeyes
10 Alabama Crimson Tide
11 Oklahoma State Cowboys
12 Michigan State Spartans