Simulated BCS Rankings Week Seven: Ohio St., Florida St. Land Comfortably In Top 5 With BCS Looming

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The BCS rankings are looming. Just one week until we enter the final phase of the college football season. And, as if seemingly on queue, the upsets came in droves this weekend.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Florida State Seminoles
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Stanford, Oklahoma, Georgia and Michigan suffered losses at inopportune times, and the simulated BCS rankings reflect the sea change. Sure, Alabama, Oregon and Clemson land in familiar spots, but after that, things get different fast. How are we figuring this out?

  • We’re using the normal method for the Coaches’ and Harris polls, taking vote share, which is explained on our BCS Formula page.
  • We’re also using all available BCS versions of the BCS component computers, which this week includes: Colley’s Matrix, Massey’s BCS, Sagarin, Anderson & Hester and Billingsley. However, we will not remove any of the rankings, as BCS usually does, as to get a better overall sense of where we stand. No need to eliminate when we don’t have the complete picture to begin with. Five computers used means a total possible score of 125 in the component.
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with about 94% accuracy

With just a week before we get a real version of the BCS on the night of Oct. 20, we have a simulated version that’s nearly 100% accurate, and interesting things have begun to happen.

Ohio State and Florida State’s steady climb has finally begun to pay off, as the Buckeyes and Seminoles land at No. 4 and No. 5 respectively. Finally, after weeks of languishing well below their full BCS potential because of weak computers and a bevy of undefeated teams to contend with, the Buckeyes and Seminoles are primed for possible runs at a title game bid.

The next group of contenders is led by teams now well within striking distance if things can fall their way. One-loss No. 6 LSU, No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 10 South Carolina, plus undefeated No. 8 UCLA and No. 9 Louisville fill out the rest of the top 10.

Undefeated Missouri, the darling of the computers with the third-highest overall computer aggregate, lands at No. 13, while new Big 12 frontrunner Baylor lands at No. 11.

Here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the seventh week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — October 14

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9842
2 Oregon Ducks .9387
3 Clemson Tigers .8781
4 Ohio State Buckeyes .8373
5 Florida State Seminoles .8345
6 LSU Tigers .7428
7 Texas A&M Aggies .6920
8 UCLA Bruins .6726
9 Louisville Cardinals .6252
10 South Carolina Gamecocks .5766
11 Baylor Bears .5721
12 Stanford Cardinal .5716
13 Missouri Tigers .5695
14 Miami Hurricanes .5479
15 Georgia Bulldogs .4554
16 Texas Tech Red Raiders .3594

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Harris Interactive Poll Week Seven: Clemson, Ohio State Debut In Top Four In First Harris Poll

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The first Harris Interactive College Football Poll is here, after long last. And though the Harris doesn’t release until seven weeks into the college football season, the results seem pretty standard.

The biggest and most noticeable difference between the Harris and Coaches’ polls is that the Harris elected Clemson a solid No. 3, while the coaches tended to favor Ohio State at No. 3, though had Clemson close behind at No. 4. In the Harris, Ohio State takes the No. 4 spot, with Florida State, Louisville and Texas A&M trailing, as in the Coaches’ Poll.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 13

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2589 .996
2 Oregon Ducks 2501 .962
3 Clemson Tigers 2355 .906
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 2280 .877
5 Florida State Seminoles 2198 .845
6 Louisville Cardinals 1922 .739
7 Texas A&M Aggies 1919 .738
8 LSU Tigers 1914 .736
9 UCLA Bruins 1719 .661
10 Miami Hurricanes 1570 .604
11 South Carolina Gamecocks 1511 .581
12 Stanford Cardinal 1482 .570

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Seven: Stanford, Georgia Clear Out

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A weekend of upsets allowed for the first real shaking of the Coaches’ Poll this week, as Stanford and Georgia’s exit from the top-12 makes room for some interesting story lines and for teams to move into contending position.

Florida State is up to No. 5 this week, while Miami and Baylor land safely inside the top-12, with everyone still chasing No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Oregon.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 13

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1545 .997
2 Oregon Ducks 1485 .958
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 1406 .907
4 Clemson Tigers 1365 .881
5 Florida State Seminoles 1293 .834
6 Louisville Cardinals 1166 .752
7 Texas A&M Aggies 1156 .746
8 LSU Tigers 1098 .708
9 South Carolina Gamecocks 1024 .661
10 UCLA Bruins 999 .645
11 Miami Hurricanes 905 .584
12 Baylor Bears 890 .574

Projected 2014 BCS Bowls — October 13

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Upsets — love ’em or hate ’em, they’re as much a part of college football as is Saturday morning fogginess during “College GameDay.” For the first time in 2013, really, during week seven, we got a handful of truly important ones. And though their outcomes might not have set things in stone, they certainly shuffled things up a bit when it comes to the BCS.

BCS Bowl Projections
Bowl Matchup
Title Game Alabama vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl Stanford vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl LSU vs. Florida State
Orange Bowl Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl Baylor vs. Louisville
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So what’s next for the likes of Georgia and Stanford? What becomes of two teams who were looking fondly toward a BCS berth during the final season of this era? We can only guess, but the outlook for now shifts somewhat dramatically for these teams.

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide (BCS No. 1) vs. Oregon Ducks (BCS No. 2)

Comment: There’s no denying it, Alabama, for all its faults this season, still seems to be the best equipped and ready for a title game run in 2013. Who else can challenge the Tide? Could it be that now, with Stanford out of the way, the best chance at knocking off the reign of the SEC lies in Eugene? Perhaps, and Oregon went about proving their Pac-12 dominance in a victory over Washington.

Rose Bowl: Stanford Cardinal (At-large selection) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten champion)

Comment: The loss to Utah hurts Stanford, it hurts the Cardinal bad. But there is plenty of hope left in Palo Alto for a BCS bowl berth. Even if Stanford is unable to resurrect its title game ambitions with a victory over Oregon later this year, it could be headed to the Rose Bowl if it can solidify itself as a 10-win club in the Pac-12. There will be plenty to deal with, mostly likely UCLA’s resurgence and the possibility of Washington’s continued success, but for now, the Cardinal seem like a strong possibility here.

Sugar Bowl: LSU Tigers (At-large selection) vs. Florida State Seminoles (At-large selection)

Comment: One loss does not a season make. Two losses? Perhaps. The second loss of the season for Georgia could end up being killer, as the Bulldogs might miss an opportunity at a BCS bowl in the era’s last year. LSU’s important win over Florida strengthens the guys from Baton Rouge’s case for a BCS at-large bid to replace the SEC bid in the Sugar Bowl. As for Florida State, the looming battle with Clemson will be telling, but even a loss there would not be world-ending.

Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers (ACC champion) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (At-large selection)

Comment: Clemson has made its name this season as a team led by offensive strikers from around the field. It was no different on Saturday against Boston College, though those strikes were somewhat less often. For Oklahoma, however, the offensive strikes barely came against Texas. Does that mean that the Sooners are down for the count on BCS terms? Not quite yet, but Oklahoma will have to show a bit of resolve to get to another BCS bid, as the trips to Baylor and Oklahoma State laid out in front of the Sooners don’t seem to spell positive things quite yet.

Fiesta Bowl: Louisville Cardinals (AAC champion) vs. Baylor Bears (Big 12 champion)

Comment: Louisville continues its romp though its AAC schedule but must continue to ponder the question whether an undefeated run thought their schedule would spell more than a bid to one of the four non-title game BCS bowls. For Baylor, however, Oklahoma’s loss to Texas sets them up nicely for a Big 12 title, with the opportunity to play all the remaining contenders in the Big 12 chase, including undefeated in conference play Texas and Texas Tech and a showdown with Oklahoma State. Wins could spell a big fiesta for the Bears.

Heisman Watch Week Seven: Contenders Step Up When Needed

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Johnny Manziel

On a Saturday full of upsets Johnny Manziel led Texas A&M past an upset bid of their own from Ole Miss. Though his performance wasn’t one for the record books, or anything quite close to that, his two rushing touchdowns and yet another 300-plus yard game through the air was enough to lift the Aggies to victory, which was all the more important on this Saturday in particular.

Tajh Boyd

Tajh Boyd seems to have the tendency to give Clemson exactly what they need, when they need it. It was no different on Saturday, as in a 24-14 victory over Boston College, Boyd tossed and ran for key touchdowns in a closer-than-expected victory over the Eagles. Was it pretty for the Tigers? No, but it was a victory, and a much-needed one before they gear up for a showdown with Jameis Winston and Florida State.

Teddy Bridgewater

With Thursday night all to himself, Teddy Bridgewater may not have broken out the big guns, but his performance against Rutgers was key to the Cardinals continuing their undefeated start to the regular season and a run at the Heisman trophy. Bridgewater connected on 21 of 31 attempts for two touchdowns and 310 yards to help Louisville top Rutgers on the night.

AJ McCarrron

It was a slow start for AJ McCarron and the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday against a much lesser Kentucky team. But once the Tide got started, it was tough to stop them, much to McCarron’s credit. Throwing for 359 yards and a touchdown, the senior leader helped the Tide score 24 points in the second quarter after a barren first, and helped Alabama to an eventual 48-7 victory.

Marcus Mariota  

Marcus Mariota and the Oregon offensive attack was needed for most of the game against Washington, a revived program with much to prove this weekend. But Mariota delivered against the Huskies, passing for 366 yards and three touchdowns to go with 88 yards and another score against a Huskies defense that nearly knocked off Stanford last weekend, and clearly put a shake into the Cardinal, which lost this weekend.

Jameis Winston

Though Jameis Winston and Florida State rested this weekend, it’s safe to say their minds were not far from the football field with top-five Clemson looming. Sure Winston has collected nearly 1,500 yards passing in five games, and sure, he’s passed for 17 touchdowns against just two interceptions, but the game against Clemson could decide the fate of not only the ACC, but also a possible BCS national title game storyline. Winston will get the chance to shine, as will Boyd, next Saturday.

BCS implications and strength of schedule worksheet for week eight

Down the stretch of the college football season, a team’s opponents — and opponent’s opponents — begin to hold an important role in determining the relative strength of a team’s BCS chances.

With computer rankings representing a third of the BCS formula, the statistical importance of who you’ve played and who you’re about to play is certainly clear. But even more important in most cases is that teams battle tested are better equipped for the stretch run, and pose greater threats to other strong teams around the nation.

With that in mind, for a third straight year, we’ll be compiling our implications and schedule strength worksheet. We’ll use the BCS rankings and Jeff Sagarin’s computer ranking to compile a look at what the nation’s best teams have accomplished, where they’re headed and the potential pitfalls and dangers associated with their upcoming schedule.

What will you find here? The top eight BCS teams (or smaller, if the “striking distance” shrinks), along with their record and strength of schedule, according to Sagarin.

But the real important stats will come after that. Each team is also listed with key games already played, and key games to come. Key games are any against the BCS top 25 or the Sagarin top 60. If teams are unlisted in the BCS, they are listed with their Sagarin rank, and all SOS are Sagarin-based.

Games for the upcoming weekend are bolded.

Note: All teams are included in the Sagarin data, including bowl-ineligible teams.

BCS No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) SOS: 32

Important games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 27 Michigan Wolverines (4-2) SOS: 31 — Won 41-14
  • Sagarin No. 38 Missouri Tigers (3-4) SOS: 1 — Won 42-10
  • Sagarin No. 46 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-10) SOS: 46 — Won 35-0
  • Sagarin No. 47 Arkansas Razorbacks (3-4) SOS: 20 — Won 52-0
  • Sagarin No. 58 Ole Miss Rebels (4-3) SOS: 42 — Won 33-14

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 6 LSU Tigers (6-1) SOS: 54 — Nov. 3
  • BCS No. 12 Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-0) SOS: 126 — Oct. 27
  • BCS No. 18 Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) SOS: 22 — Nov. 10
  • Sagarin No. 50 Tennessee Volunteers (3-3) SOS: 26 — Oct. 20 

BCS No. 2 Florida Gators (6-0) SOS: 16

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 6 LSU Tigers (6-1) SOS: 54 — Won 14-6
  • BCS No. 18 Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) SOS: 22 — Won 20-17
  • Sagarin No. 50 Tennessee Volunteers (3-3) SOS: 26 — Won 37-20
  • Sagarin No. 59 Vanderbilt Commodores (2-4) SOS: 3 — Won 31-17

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) SOS: 33 — Oct. 20
  • BCS No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs (5-1) SOS: 51 — Oct. 27
  • BCS No. 14 Florida State Seminoles (6-1) SOS: 107 — Nov. 24
  • Sagarin No. 38 Missouri Tigers (3-4) SOS: 1 — Nov. 3

BCS No. 3 Oregon Ducks (6-0) SOS: 93

Important games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 32 Washington Huskies (3-3) SOS: 2 — Won 52-21
  • Sagarin No. 34 Arizona Wildcats (3-3) SOS: 8 — Won 49-0

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 8 Oregon State Beavers (5-0) SOS: 9 — Nov. 24
  • BCS No. 10 USC Trojans (5-1) SOS: 23 — Nov. 3
  • BCS No. 20 Stanford Cardinal  (4-2) SOS: 7 — Nov. 17
  • Sagarin No. 26 Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1) SOS: 76 — Oct. 18
  • Sagarin No. 53 California Bears (3-4) SOS: 12 — Nov. 10

BCS No. 4 Kansas State Wildcats (6-0) SOS: 82

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners (4-1) SOS: 9 — Won 24-19
  • BCS No. 24 Iowa State Cyclones (4-2) SOS: 10 — Won 27-21
  • Sagarin No. 42 Miami Hurricanes (4-3) SOS: 11 — Won 52-13

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 13 West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) SOS: 24 — Oct. 20 
  • BCS No. 17 Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1) SOS: 51 — Oct. 27
  • BCS No. 23 TCU Horned Frogs (5-1) SOS: 85 — Nov. 10
  • BCS No. 25 Texas Longhorns (4-2) SOS: 14 — Dec. 1
  • Sagarin No. 35 Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-2) SOS: 61 — Nov. 3
  • Sagarin No. 45 Baylor Bears (3-2) SOS: 25 — Nov. 17

BCS No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-0) SOS: 17

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 20 Stanford Cardinal  (4-2) SOS: 7 — Won 20-13
  • Sagarin No. 27 Michigan Wolverines (4-2) SOS: 31 — Won 13-6
  • Sagarin No. 36 Michigan State Spartans (4-3) SOS: 34 — Won 20-3
  • Sagarin No. 42 Miami Hurricanes (4-3) SOS: 11 — Won 41-3

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners (4-1) SOS: 9 — Oct. 27
  • BCS No. 10 USC Trojans (5-1) SOS: 23 — Nov. 24
  • Sagarin No. 55 BYU Cougars (4-3) SOS: 65 — Oct. 20  

BCS No. 6 LSU Tigers (6-1) SOS: 54

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 2 Florida Gators (6-0) SOS: 16 — Lost 14-6
  • BCS No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) SOS: 33 — Won 23-21
  • Sagarin No. 32 Washington Huskies (3-3) SOS: 2 — Won 41-3

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) SOS: 32 — Nov. 3
  • BCS No. 12 Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-0) SOS: 126 — Nov. 10
  • BCS No. 18 Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) SOS: 22 — Oct. 20 
  • Sagarin No. 47 Arkansas Razorbacks (3-4) SOS: 20 — Nov. 23
  • Sagarin No. 58 Ole Miss Rebels (4-3) SOS: 42 — Nov. 17

BCS No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) SOS: 33

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 6 LSU Tigers (6-1) SOS: 54 — Lost 23-21
  • BCS No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs (5-1) SOS: 51 — Won 35-7
  • Sagarin No. 38 Missouri Tigers (3-4) SOS: 1 — Won 31-10
  • Sagarin No. 59 Vanderbilt Commodores (2-4) SOS: 3 — Won 17-13

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 2 Florida Gators (6-0) SOS: 16 — Oct. 20
  • BCS No. 19 Clemson Tigers (5-1) SOS: 74 — Nov. 24
  • Sagarin No. 50 Tennessee Volunteers (3-3) SOS: 26 — Oct. 27
  • Sagarin No. 47 Arkansas Razorbacks (3-4) SOS: 20 — Nov. 10

BCS No. 8 Oregon State Beavers (5-0) SOS: 9

Important games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 29 Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) SOS: 41 — Won 10-7
  • Sagarin No. 34 Arizona Wildcats (3-3) SOS: 8 — Won 38-25
  • Sagarin No. 40 UCLA Bruins (5-2) SOS: 40 — Won 27-20
  • Sagarin No. 55 BYU Cougars (4-3) SOS: 65 — Won 42-24

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 3 Oregon Ducks (6-0) SOS: 93 — Nov. 24
  • BCS No. 20 Stanford Cardinal  (4-2) SOS: 7 — Nov. 10
  • Sagarin No. 26 Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1) SOS: 76 — Nov. 3
  • Sagarin No. 32 Washington Huskies (3-3) SOS: 2 — Oct. 27
  • Sagarin No. 53 California Bears (3-4) SOS: 12 — Nov. 17

First BCS Rankings of 2012: Alabama and Florida pace the field

While you might not agree, you at least have to marvel. Once again, the BCS rankings are ruled by two SEC teams, as No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida lead the way in the first BCS rankings of the 2012 season.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida Gators
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Kansas State Wildcats
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Scroll down for more

How did they do it? Well, a combination of ways. It was clear to just about anyone that Alabama would be atop these first set of rankings, and they pulled in an impressive first-week .9761 score, showing a wide-spread belief that Alabama is the team to beat.

Oregon, which captured both No. 2 rankings in the Harris and Coaches’ polls gets bypassed by a hungry Gators squad, which enjoys the nation’s best computer rankings. Oregon, on the other hand, gets just the nation’s sixth-best computer score, giving it too little to hang ahead of the Gators.

Further down the spread, we get our first glance of a Big 12 school, as Kansas State lands at No. 4. A strong rebound into the top four computer scores allowed the Wildcats to stay ahead of Notre Dame, which lands at No. 5.

Our first one-loss squad is unsurprisingly LSU, coming off of a great victory over South Carolina, landing at No. 6. Those same Gamecocks land at No. 7, seeing the steadying affect of the computer rankings keep their BCS dreams afloat for the time being.

Undefeated and surprising Oregon State is the beneficiary of some strong computer support at No. 8 despite a lacking level of support for an undefeated squad from an AQ conference. The Beavers are trailed by strong one-loss squads USC and Oklahoma to round out the top 10.

We’re in the home stretch now, believe it or not. Just seven weeks remain. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the first BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week One — October 14th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9761
2 Florida Gators .9092
3 Oregon Ducks .8993
4 Kansas State Wildcats .8963
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .8774
6 LSU Tigers .7522
7 South Carolina Gamecocks .6930
8 Oregon State Beavers .6808
9 Oklahoma Sooners .6664
10 USC Trojans .5959
11 Georgia Bulldogs .4980
12 Mississippi State Bulldogs .4846
13 West Virginia Mountaineers .4793
14 Florida State Seminoles .4277
15 Rutgers Scarlet Knights .4083
16 Louisville Cardinals .4061

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Well, other than seeing the Ducks bypassed by the slimmest of margins, a solid week to start. Never fun to have the mix at the top. But solid. Take it as you will.