Simulated BCS Rankings Week Four: LSU Jumps Into The Fray

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After a weekend somewhat lacking in true tests for the nation’s best, not much changed around the country in terms of how voters saw teams lining up for possible title bids.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 LSU Tigers
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

But lurking underneath was a shift in a few key areas that allow the newest set of simulated BCS rankings to swap around a few key players, and set us up for an interesting stretch of weeks before the final BCS frame begins.

The biggest move is that of LSU’s which leaps from No. 6 to No. 4 this week, still trailing the top three from last week — Alabama, Oregon and Clemson.

How did we figure these out?

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’ve begun to use all available BCS versions of the BCS component computers, this week that includes: Colley’s Matrix, Massey’s BCS, Sagarin and Billingsley
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with 56% accuracy

As the season has progressed the result is a better connected set of teams. There are ways to compare early games. That can help voters in the AP and Coaches’ polls, but really, those extra games help the computers make sense of a limited amount of data.

This increase in sample size has given LSU a strong early computer edge, as the Tigers collect the third-best computer ranking aggregate this week, behind only the Tide and Ducks.

On the opposite side of that discussion rests a team like Ohio State, still struggling mightily with its computer support and paying for it in these simulations, as the Buckeyes land at No. 7. But it’s still early, much can change.

For now, it seems as if another contender has entered the fray in LSU and one that would be especially dangerous when they meet Alabama in early November.

For now, however, here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the fourth week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — September 23

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9851
2 Oregon Ducks .9367
3 Clemson Tigers .8442
4 LSU Tigers .7957
5 Stanford Cardinal .7910
6 Florida State Seminoles .7442
7 Ohio State Buckeyes .6909
8 Georgia Bulldogs .6047
9 Louisville Cardinals .5969
10 Oklahoma State Cowboys .5808
11 Texas A&M Aggies .5492
12 Oklahoma Sooners .5187
13 UCLA Bruins .5145
14 South Carolina Gamecocks .4647
15 Washington Huskies .3761
16 Miami Hurricanes .3578

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USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Four: LSU Making Moves

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With favorites prevailing around the country, it was not difficult to predict a largely stagnant set of rankings come Sunday after week four.

And though not much changed, after a key victory over Auburn garnered a lot of national attention on a less than stellar weekend of matchups, LSU made the biggest move of the Coaches’ Poll week by leaping up a spot to No. 6. The Tigers jump Louisville, who suffer again from a weaker opponent (on which the Cardinals layed more than 70 points).

Elsewhere, Alabama lost two points, and two first-place votes, to Oregon, but remain well ahead of the Ducks.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – September 22

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1547 .998
2 Oregon Ducks 1480 .955
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 1399 .903
4 Clemson Tigers 1332 .859
5 Stanford Cardinal 1312 .847
6 LSU Tigers 1161 .749
7 Louisville Cardinals 1140 .736
8 Florida State Seminoles 1121 .723
9 Texas A&M Aggies 1044 .674
10 Georgia Bulldogs 1020 .658
11 Oklahoma State Cowboys 909 .587
12 Oklahoma Sooners 863 .557

Projected 2014 BCS Bowls — September 22

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What can we learn from a week with few upsets, likely as a result of the few tests on the docket for the nation’s best teams? Teams such as Stanford and Notre Dame had interesting opponents, but like most of the rest of the country took care of business.

BCS Bowl Projections
Bowl Matchup
Title Game Alabama vs. Stanford
Rose Bowl Oregon vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl Georgia vs. Michigan
Orange Bowl Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma State vs. Louisville
Scroll down for more

So the projected BCS bowl picture doesn’t change this week, but we can say with some certainty that some of the nation’s best are carving out an identity as we head toward October and the first BCS standings.

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide (BCS No. 1) vs. Stanford Cardinal (BCS No. 2)

Comment: Alabama didn’t dispatch Colorado State in overwhelming fashion and Stanford let Arizona State hang around after jumping out to a big lead, but both continue to look like national title contenders in a crowded field of possible title teams. Alabama gets Ole Miss next weekend and Stanford continues its start to the Pac-12 season against Washington State.

Rose Bowl: Oregon Ducks (At-large selection) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten champion)

Comment: Seems like without Braxton Miller, Ohio State has been able to turn its offensive attack into a scoring machine, as the Buckeyes posted 76 points against Florida A&M and Kenny Guiton posted six touchdowns. Oregon had the week off, and continues to look national title game worth, but if they are to fall short, the Rose Bowl would likely come calling.

Sugar Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs (At-large selection) vs. Michigan Wolverines (At-large selection)

Comment: Is constantly dodging upsets good for a team this early in the season? It might be, or it might just be that Michigan is not as good as was advertised before the 2013 started. But after struggling against Akron and UConn, Michigan remains undefeated, an important distinction this early in the season. If they can get this turned around, a BCS bowl bid could very easily be in their future, no matter how much they’ve struggled so far this year.

Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers (ACC champion) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (At-large selection)

Comment: The ACC looks like a strong conference top-to-bottom in 2013, and coming out ahead of teams like Florida State and revived looking Georgia Tech, Maryland and Miami will be a tough road to complete. But Clemson seems the class of the conference, at least thus far, and a Orange Bowl bid will be the reward if they are able to top the conference.

Fiesta Bowl: Louisville Cardinals (AAC champion) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Big 12 champion)

Comment: Louisville put up a big 72 points against an inferior FIU team on Saturday, staking yet another claim to their spot as the best of the newly formed AAC’s football schools and doing nothing to change the general consensus that they’ll be able to finish this season undefeated. But even an undefeated season might not be enough to get them to the title game.

Heisman Watch Week Four: Strong Performances With No Stand Out

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Johnny Manziel

After his performance against Alabama was most notable for Johnny Manziel’s work through the air, it was his work in the rushing game that helped Texas A&M top SMU this weekend. Manziel rushed for two touchdowns and more than 100 yards to go along with his nearly 250 yards passing and passing score. A&M will start to hit the meat of its SEC schedule next week against Arkansas.

Tajh Boyd

Clemson didn’t always look its best against NC State in its ACC opener, but behind the senior quarterback’s leadership and three touchdown passes, the Tigers continued their hot start to the 2013 season. And in the process, Boyd again put up big numbers in a game that got a lot of national attention, as the Thursday night kick gave the country a chance to watch Boyd again.

Teddy Bridgewater

When a quarterback’s team scores 72 points, its easy for each accomplishment to disappear into the blowout. But Biridgewater was able to post four passing touchdowns and 212 yards before giving way to the rest of his offense to put away Florida International

AJ McCarrron

After a season-defining performance when it counted most against Texas A&M, McCarron followed it up this weekend with a somewhat muted performance against Colorado State. McCarron didn’t need to be the force against the Rams, and threw for just one touchdown, but was also intercepted once.

Marcus Mariota  

After three consecutive weeks of stat lines that stood out among the early performances and leading his Oregon team to blowout victories, Marcus Mariota and the Ducks got the week off. In what seems like a good way to view his early statistics, no one player’s performance in week four was as completely dominant as Mariota’s had been.

Others To Watch

Melvin Gordon

Three touchdowns for Gordon this weekend, and in the early going, he’s staying the thick of this race well.

De’Anthony Thomas

Thomas, like Mariota, and Oregon were also off this week. The Ducks get California next week.

Jameis Winston

A solid performance from Winston in a blowout victory over Bethune-Cookman. Winston attempted only 19 passes, and threw for two touchdowns.

Simulated BCS Rankings Week Four: No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Florida State bound past LSU

As the first BCS standings release moves closer, the smallest of changes begin to have increasingly large ramifications in the simulated BCS, just like they do as the season draws to a close every year.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 LSU Tigers
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

Not surprisingly, Alabama remains atop the latest set of simulated BCS rankings, however, as in the polls released this weekend, Oregon is the new No. 2 team. The Ducks jump comfortably ahead of LSU, which falls from No. 2 to No. 4 after a nail-biting victory over Auburn over the weekend.

Florida State finally sees the computer and poll support expected of them thus far after a big victory over Clemson, leaps up to No. 3.

After Stanford lands at No. 5 with continually strong computer support, a tight-knit group occupies spots six through nine, with less than .0200 points dividing the four teams.

South Carolina, Kansas State, Georgia and Notre Dame make up a contingent of teams that features two strong early season SEC squads and two teams that made the most noise over this past weekend, as Notre Dame and Kansas State are the beneficiaries of wins over ranked foes.

Notre Dame is once again in the national conversation with BCS implications. If the Irish can stick inside the top 14 and register nine wins they are all but guaranteed a BCS bid. A top-eight finish assures the Irish of an automatic at-large berth.

As they have been in weeks past, these simulated rankings are not necessarily the most accurate in terms of reflecting the actual components of the BCS, but they do give an interesting first look at the BCS picture.

Without the Harris Interactive Poll (1/3 of the formula) and two of the six computers (all six of which account for another third), these rankings are about 56 percent “complete.” What we do have, however, is the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, as well as early looks at Kenneth Massey, Richard Billingsley, Jeff Sagarin and the Colley Matrix, for what we’d call a 56 percent confidence that these rankings are a “good” reflection of the BCS.

We took a computer aggregate without eliminating any of the four available to keep extra transparency, but kept the formula for the human elements intact while subbing the AP Poll for the Harris Poll.

The first BCS rankings will be available in October, but for now, this will have to do.

Check out the full simulation worksheet. These simulated ranking reflect the following formula:

BCS Score = (AP Poll Score/1500 + Coaches Poll Score/1475 + Computer Poll Aggregate/100)/3

Here are the simulated rankings after week four:

Simulated BCS Standings — September 24

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9160
2 Oregon Ducks .8807
3 Florida State Seminoles .8063
4 LSU Tigers .7800
5 Stanford Cardinal .7589
6 South Carolina Gamecocks .7245
7 Kansas State Wildcats .7198
8 Georgia Bulldogs .7166
9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .7151
10 Florida Gators .6166
11 West Virginia Mountaineers .5958
12 Texas Longhorns .5624
13 USC Trojans .4551
14 Oklahoma Sooners .3770
15 Oregon State Beavers .3766
16 TCU Horned Frogs .3729

 

BlogPoll Week Four: Oregon proving its way to No. 2

It’s not easy to keep track of every team, especially when one of the most explosive and fun to watch squads plays well past midnight on the East Coast. But the Oregon Ducks make it worth it almost every week, and this week, their performance was good enough to move them into position to break up LSU-Alabama duo that has dominated the college football landscape every week.

So Oregon is up to No. 2, while losses from Oklahoma, Michigan and Clemson to Kansas State, Notre Dame and Florida State do the things you might expect them to do to the rankings.

Don’t agree? Criticize away!


USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Four: Oregon leaps LSU to claim No. 2 spot

Apparently, for FBS coaches, a victory in Jordan Hare Stadium isn’t worth nearly as much as it was just a few seasons ago.

After struggling to escape Auburn with a victory, LSU finds themselves eclipsed in the latest USA Today Coaches’ Poll, as Oregon leaps past the Tigers, and claims the No. 2 spot for the Ducks. Oregon beat Arizona over the weekend, 49-0.

The SEC claims four of the top six spots, as No. 5 Georgia and No. 6 South Carolina join in the SEC fun.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – September 23

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1473 .999
2 Oregon Ducks 1371 .929
3 LSU Tigers 1361 .923
4 Florida State Seminoles 1306 .885
5 Georgia Bulldogs 1224 .830
6 South Carolina Gamecocks 1149 .779
7 West Virginia Mountaineers 1137 .771
8 Kansas State Wildcats 1000 .678
9 Stanford Cardinal 949 .643
10 Texas Longhorns 924 .626
11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 836 .567
12 Florida Gators 817 .554