Simulated BCS Rankings Week Five: Ohio State Up To No. 5, Buckeyes Here To Stay?

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As the real BCS rankings get closer, focus paid to one marquee game can have big ripple effects across the country if things turn out one way or another.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Stanford Cardinal
4 Clemson Tigers
5 Ohio State Buckeyes
Scroll down for more

This weekend, that game was LSU-Georgia, and the Bulldogs’ second victory over a top-10 team before September is even out (especially after losing to a top-10 team to start the year) was felt in all over the BCS component rankings this week.

Georgia’s leap into the top echelon of the simulated BCS rankings is significant, however, it’s Ohio State’s step in the top five that should turn heads.

How did we figure these out?

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’ve begun to use all available BCS versions of the BCS component computers, this week that includes: Colley’s Matrix, Massey’s BCS, Sagarin and Billingsley
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with about 56% accuracy

Ohio State, well back of the pack in recent weeks despite its support in the polls, leaps to No. 5 this time on the strength of teams moving out of their way and an improved showing in the computers. LSU’s loss helped to make the Buckeyes’ entrance into the top five possible, while also bolstering the rankings of the teams that occupied similar space last week. The Buckeyes just clear No. 6 Georgia (.0066 behind) and No. 7 Florida State (.0234 behind).

Stanford is another clear beneficiary, picking up much of LSU’s support and using another easy Pac-12 victory to gain some steam and move up to No. 3, just hopping over No. 4 Clemson.

The Bulldogs land at No. 6, as they rebound on the strength of the country’s most difficult schedule. Oklahoma also lands some unexpected gained support at No. 8, likely as a result of Oklahoma State’s loss that placed the Sooners as the clear favorites in the Big 12.

Here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the fifth week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — September 29

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9914
2 Oregon Ducks .9107
3 Stanford Cardinal .8594
4 Clemson Tigers .8550
5 Ohio State Buckeyes .7604
6 Georgia Bulldogs .7538
7 Florida State Seminoles .7370
8 Oklahoma Sooners .6569
9 Texas A&M Aggies .6154
10 LSU Tigers .6078
11 Louisville Cardinals .6058
12 UCLA Bruins .5366
13 South Carolina Gamecocks .5021
14 Washington Huskies .4983
15 Northwestern Wildcats .3756
16 Miami Hurricanes .3737

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Five: Georgia Rises Fast

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Winning nationally televised SEC games often has this kind of impact on things…

Georgia reaps plenty of benefit in this week’s USA Today Coaches’ Poll after beating LSU on Saturday, moving from No. 10 to No. 6, while LSU falls from No. 6 to No. 11. Elsewhere in the poll, things are seemingly much unchanged, though Clemson is able to capture one first place vote, making it three teams — the Tigers, Alabama and Oregon — with that kind of support anywhere in the poll

Alabama, for its part, stays well ahead of the pack with a nearly perfect .997 vote share, but those few first-place votes it’s losing to Oregon and Clemson keep them from completing a clean sweep.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – September 29

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1546 .997
2 Oregon Ducks 1479 .954
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 1397 .901
4 Clemson Tigers 1352 .872
5 Stanford Cardinal 1325 .855
6 Georgia Bulldogs 1148 .741
7 Louisville Cardinals 1147 .740
8 Florida State Seminoles 1129 .728
9 Texas A&M Aggies 1072 .691
10 Oklahoma Sooners 964 .622
11 LSU Tigers 931 .601
12 South Carolina Gamecocks 860 .555

Projected 2014 BCS Bowls — September 29

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The ACC, long a secondary consideration in the BCS era (a 3-13 record in BCS bowls doesn’t help) is having a 2013 to remember thus far. And when some teams expected to thrive in the early going fall apart unexpectedly, it’s the ACC that’s there to pick up the pieces.

BCS Bowl Projections
Bowl Matchup
Title Game Alabama vs. Stanford
Rose Bowl Oregon vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl Georgia vs. Florida State
Orange Bowl Clemson vs. Michigan
Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma vs. Louisville
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With Oklahoma State’s surprising loss to West Virginia exposing some very important flaws in the Cowboys’ attack, the Big 12 looks like Oklahoma’s to lose, and perhaps a one-BCS-bid conference in 2013. That’ll happen in a 10-team conference and unexpected early losses.

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide (BCS No. 1) vs. Stanford Cardinal (BCS No. 2)

Comment: Alabama finally flexed the defensive muscle against Ole Miss that had been so integral to its back-to-back runs to national titles these last two years. And with that reassurance, it looks even more like the Crimson Tide can make a return trip to the title game. Stanford started a bit slow against Washington State, but had little trouble dispatching of the Cougars by the end of the night.

Rose Bowl: Oregon Ducks (At-large selection) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten champion)

Comment: Oregon again put up wild offensive numbers, this time destroying California in Autzen with ease. Ohio State had a little more trouble with Wisconsin, but was able to take advantage of a rowdy crowd at the Horseshoe to put up another win. Do either of these teams have losses in their future? Looking at their schedules and how they’ve played thus far, perhaps not. Would that be enough for Ohio State to get to the title game? It’s an important question, but it more than likely would for Oregon.

Sugar Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs (At-large selection) vs. Florida State Seminoles (At-large selection)

Comment: Georgia might have been the first team with a legit national title chance to stumble out of the gate in 2013, but since losing to Clemson, the Bulldogs have looked every bit their preseason hype. Especially in their all-important victory over LSU on Saturday, the Bulldogs showed why they should not yet be counted out of the title race. But if they fall short, the Sugar Bowl could be waiting. If Florida State, clearly among the best of a revived ACC conference, finishes the season with just a loss to Clemson, they’d be well deserving of this bid as well.

Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers (ACC champion) vs. Michigan Wolverines (At-large selection)

Comment: Clemson has led the charge of resurgence in the ACC, and spent little time toying around this week with Wake Forest. Another convincing victory for the Tigers makes it look all the more likely that they’ll be the eventual ACC champs, and if they can capture the conference title without making the title game, they’ll land in the Orange Bowl. Michigan should call for at least a look as far as at-large bids go, and have been able to stay undefeated despite some troubles.

Fiesta Bowl: Louisville Cardinals (AAC champion) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (Big 12 champion)

Comment: Louisville had the week off to watch from a distance as the previous Big 12 favorite Oklahoma State fell hard against West Virginia. It was Oklahoma, instead, that looked like the class of the conference by beating Notre Dame on the road. If the Sooners can match that kind of performance in conference play, they’ll be set for a Big 12 title and the Fiesta Bowl bid that comes with.

Heisman Watch Week Five: Winston, Boyd Key Big Victories

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Johnny Manziel

Johnny Manziel loves playing against Arkansas, following up his 500-plus yard performance last season against the Razorbacks with another 300-plus yards of offensive in Texas A&M’s Saturday night win. Manziel finished with 261 yards passing and two touchdowns through the air to go with 59 yards rushing. The Aggies get Ole Miss and Auburn after their bye next weekend, chances for Manziel to either bolster his chances at a repeat trophy, or watch others pass him by.

Tajh Boyd

Tajh Boyd was back in a big way on Saturday, accounting for four touchdowns in Clemson’s dominating victory over Wake Forest. Boyd recorded his 100th career touchdown and passed for more than 300 yards on the day, picking apart the Demon Deacons easily. With Boston College and Syracuse up next for Clemson before they take on Jamies Winston and Florida State, Boyd has a few weeks to do some stat-padding.

Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy Bridgewater and Louisville were off this weekend, but with more than 1,200 passing yards and 14 touchdowns through four games, and some weaker AAC defenses upcoming, expect Bridgewater to stay in the Heisman race all year.

AJ McCarrron

Clearly the star of Saturday’s game between Alabama and Ole Miss was the Crimson Tide’s defense, but once again AJ McCarron efficiently led the Tide to the score drives they needed to pull off the victory, although the stats were not eye-popping. McCarron threw for 180 yards and was intercepted once in the 25-0 win.

Marcus Mariota  

Marcus Mariota didn’t need to do much to help Oregon to a victory over California in the Ducks’ return from a bye week. The Golden Bears were put away early, and Mariota was a big part of the early burst, throwing two touchdown passes and rushing for a third in the blowout victory. Mariota might not be truly tested or forced to play a full game until Oct. 12 against Washington.

Jameis Winston

Jameis Winston passed for 330 yards and four touchdowns against Boston College on Saturday, and for most of the game, Florida State needed every single one of those touchdowns to avoid the upset. Though the Eagles trailed off at the end, they hung around for the majority of the game, and Winston stepped up when needed. The freshman quarterback also helped out the Seminoles’ rushing attack with 67 yards on the ground.

Simulated BCS Rankings Week Five: SEC, already dominating, lands four of top six in latest simulation with Alabama at No. 1

Despite seeing wavering support in the polls after choosing a bad time to underwhelm voters, LSU has gained support where they needed it most — to climb one spot to No. 3 in the latest simulated BCS rankings.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 LSU Tigers
4 Florida State Seminoles
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

The Tigers continue to trail the overwhelmingly No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Oregon, but with the SEC building upon its computer strength, LSU has seen an important rise in support.

The SEC, in fact, claims four of the top six spots in this week’s simulation, after Stanford’s loss and Kansas State’s bye week translated into room to move up for both South Carolina and Georgia. Combined with No. 10 Florida, the SEC boasts half of the top 10 in the simulation.

Notre Dame is already making some BCS noise, as they land at No. 7 in the latest simulation. As always, the Fighting Irish need win nine games and finish in the top eight to automatically receive a BCS bowl bid. A finish in the top 14 and nine wins would make them BCS eligible and almost guarantee an at-large selection.

With just two weekends to go before the first official BCS release, these simulated rankings are not necessarily the most accurate in terms of reflecting the actual components of the BCS, but they do give an interesting first look at the BCS picture.

Without the Harris Interactive Poll (1/3 of the formula) and two of the six computers (all six of which account for another third), these rankings are about 56 percent “complete.” What we do have, however, is the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, as well as early looks at Kenneth Massey, Richard Billingsley, Jeff Sagarin and the Colley Matrix, for what we’d call a 56 percent confidence that these rankings are a “good” reflection of the BCS.

We took a computer aggregate without eliminating any of the four available to keep extra transparency, but kept the formula for the human elements intact while subbing the AP Poll for the Harris Poll.

The first BCS rankings will be available later this month, but for now, this will have to do.

Check out the full simulation worksheet. These simulated ranking reflect the following formula:

BCS Score = (AP Poll Score/1500 + Coaches Poll Score/1475 + Computer Poll Aggregate/100)/3

Here are the simulated rankings after week five:

Simulated BCS Standings — October 1

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9660
2 Oregon Ducks .8548
3 LSU Tigers .8443
4 Florida State Seminoles .8038
5 Georgia Bulldogs .8022
6 South Carolina Gamecocks .7950
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .7386
8 Kansas State Wildcats .7268
9 West Virginia Mountaineers .7005
10 Florida Gators .6378
11 Texas Longhorns .6355
12 Oregon State Beavers .5228
13 TCU Horned Frogs .4077
14 USC Trojans .3867
15 Stanford Cardinal .3719
16 Oklahoma Sooners .3437

 

BlogPoll Week Five: Florida State up to No. 5 while Stanford tumbles

It’s never easy to gauge how much you should read into any given game during the college football season. Should we take a Stanford victory over USC and then a Stanford loss to Washington to signify that the Trojans are, in fact, far worse than we thought? Or does that say more about Stanford? Or Washington?

That’s the kind of thing that makes ranking teams, especially this early in the season, tough.

For now, despite a defense that more resembles thin air than Swiss cheese, as far as I’m concerned West Virginia looks great, and that offense could probably hang with anybody in the country. So it’s the Mountaineers that round out my top four, with a little shuffling down the line.

Don’t agree? Criticize away!


USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Five: Top eight unchanged while Notre Dame, Texas each climb one spot

With the top eight stagnant this week, the real change happens a bit further down the poll, as Notre Dame, Texas, USC and Florida are the beneficiaries of Stanford’s loss on Thursday, each moving up one spot.

Alabama loses one first-place vote on the weekend, but remains well atop the poll, 69 points ahead of No. 2 Oregon, which remains at the second spot for a second straight week.

Florida State, which jumped LSU in the AP Poll, climbs to within 26 points of the Tigers in the Coaches’ Poll.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – September 30

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1472 .998
2 Oregon Ducks 1403 .951
3 LSU Tigers 1327 .900
4 Florida State Seminoles 1301 .882
5 Georgia Bulldogs 1227 .832
6 South Carolina Gamecocks 1161 .787
7 West Virginia Mountaineers 1137 .771
8 Kansas State Wildcats 1050 .712
9 Texas Longhorns 981 .665
10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 915 .620
11 Florida Gators 883 .598
12 USC Trojans 784 .532

Heisman Watch Week Five: Geno Smith’s brilliant day rules weekend storylines

De’Anthony Thomas

De’Anthony Thomas found yards where he could against Washington State — that being all over the field. Receiving (26 yards), rushing (28), kick returning (53) and punt returning (19) gave the sophomore a chance to shine across the board. The sophomore can seemingly contribute everywhere. While scoring just six of Oregon’s 51 points, Thomas made his presence known.

And yet, the problem moving forward could be a lack of consistent shining production like the game some other players produced this weekend. If Thomas doesn’t rack up 100-yards or more in one of these categories, is he doing himself a disservice in the Heisman race? Though it might seem counterintuitive — lots of offense is good anyway you can get it — Thomas might need to produce in more traditional and consistent ways to stay in the Heisman race.

Geno Smith

Likely lost in the gaudy numbers Geno Smith posted Saturday was how his arm and athleticism took over early and simply did not let up. Sure, his 656 yards passing, eight touchdown passes and 31 yards rushing will get Heisman voters’ attention when voting comes around, but Smith showed just how talented he was beyond the box score against Baylor.

Certainly the frontrunner for the trophy at this point, Smith gets the best of the Big 12 in the coming weeks, but as we’ve seen in recent years, even the Big 12’s best lacks in the defensive department. We’re probably not done with the gaudy stat lines from Smith.

EJ Manuel

Facing their first road test of their season, the Seminoles relied heavily on the arm of EJ Manuel, who continues to enjoy a strong start to his senior season at Florida State. Keeping his mistakes to a minimum, Manuel was able to out-shine fellow star quarterback, South Florida’s B.J. Daniels, and kept the Seminoles undefeated.

Ranked fourth in the nation, expectations are mounting for Florida State, but on Saturday, Manuel handled it just fine. Finishing with 242 yards and a touchdown toss, Manuel is squarely in the Heisman conversation.

Braxton Miller

Efficient where needed and the leader Ohio State required down the stretch, Braxton Miller continues to impress despite Ohio State’s ineligibility to win the Big Ten or make a bowl game. Miller passed for 179 yards and rushed for 136 more, leading the Buckeyes past Michigan State on Saturday, and keeping his Heisman hopes strong.

A key pick and a fumble in Michigan State territory could have undone the sophomore, but he held strong, and led his team to a key early season victory.

Aaron Muray

In what turned into a barn-burning slugfest between SEC foes, it was Aaron Murray’s arm that helped Georgia get by Tennessee, 51-44, as the junior gunslinger vaults his way into the Heisman conversation. Having already passed for 1,092 yards coming into the meeting with the Volunteers, it was more of the same for Murray, who saw his running game give the kind of support quarterbacks can only hope for.

With 12 touchdowns against just two interceptions on the year after Saturday’s key victory, Murray also boasts the skills and stats to stay in this race for the long-term. But the Bulldogs will have to keep winning for it to matter.

On The Radar:

Matt Barkley

A bye week is certainly never kind to any Heisman hopeful, especially one with a falling stock like Barkley’s. But with the Pac-12 schedule hitting high gear — and a Thursday night game on tap against Washington — Barkley has a shot to re-enter the race.

Colin Klein

Klein, too, was on a bye this week, but with his stock soaring after leading Kansas State past Oklahoma last weekend and vaulting the Wildcats into the top 10, Klein has a shot to make some real noise in the coming weeks.

Simulated BCS Standings Week Five: Alabama Surges to the Top

On the strength of an impressive victory over Florida, Alabama sees a huge growth in support across the BCS components, and claims the top spot in this week’s simulated BCS rankings.

Boise State creeps past Oklahoma State this week, bowing at No. 4, while the Cowboys slip a spot to No. 5.

Clemson’s consecutive victories over undefeated, highly ranked ACC foes, also allows the Tigers to take a huge leap to No. 6 this week, giving Clemson a surprisingly strong position.

As a point of reference, the methodology of the BCS Know How simulated rankings is slightly different than normal BCS procedure — mainly because of a lack of full-scale components.

For starters, there is no Harris Interactive Poll quite yet, and two of the six computer ranking systems, the Anderson and Hester system and the Peter Wolfe rankings are non-operational. For the time being, we’ve substituted the AP poll for the Harris, and will include the four available computers — Sagarin, Massey, Colley and Billingsley — in the simulation. This early in the season, there’s little need to zero out a computer, it would only cloud the picture of this process.

Simulated BCS Rankings — October 3rd

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9637
2 LSU Tigers .9393
3 Oklahoma Sooners .8816
4 Boise State Broncos .8187
5 Oklahoma State Cowboys .8039
6 Clemson Tigers .7752
7 Wisconsin Badgers .7540
8 Stanford Cardinal .7262
9 Texas Longhorns .5938
10 Michigan Wolverines .5564
11 Oregon Ducks .5549
12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets .4861
13 Arkansas Razorbacks .4691
14 Illinois Fighting Illini .4274
15 Nebraska Cornhuskers .3759
16 Auburn Tigers .3513

Some thoughts:

  • It’s not really until we get past Stanford at No. 8 that things get a little interesting, new faces in the rankings Michigan, Texas and Georgia Tech are slowly creeping into the top slots, providing a few interesting scenarios in the coming weeks.
  • Illinois also makes an interesting appearance at No. 14, with Auburn reappearing at No. 16.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Five: Clemson, Wisconsin Prosper


Story to come.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 2nd

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Oklahoma Sooners 1421 .963
2 LSU Tigers 1410 .956
2 Alabama Crimson Tide 1408 .955
4 Stanford Cardinal 1237 .839
5 Wisconsin Badgers 1236 .838
6 Boise State Broncos 1186 .804
7 Oklahoma State Cowboys 1162 .788
8 Clemson Tigers 1028 .705
9 Oregon Ducks 1017 .689
10 Texas Longhorns 879 .596
11 Michigan Wolverines 808 .548
12 Arkansas Razorbacks 788 .534