BCS implications and strength of schedule worksheet for week nine

Just two weeks into the BCS standings and we’ve already seen the impact schedule strength and perception can have on the BCS standings.

With Kansas State hopping past Oregon, sending the Ducks down another spot to No. 4, it’s never been more apparent how the computer rankings and their perceptions of which team has tested itself most readily dictate the BCS rankings.

So let’s dive into the implications for the next few weeks.

We’ll be compiling our implications and schedule strength worksheet every week of the season. We’ll use the BCS rankings and Jeff Sagarin’s computer ranking to compile a look at what the nation’s best teams have accomplished, where they’re headed and the potential pitfalls and dangers associated with their upcoming schedule.

What will you find here? The top eight BCS teams (or smaller, if the “striking distance” shrinks), along with their record and strength of schedule, according to Sagarin.

Each team is also listed with key games already played, and key games to come. Key games are any against the BCS top 25 or the Sagarin top 60. If teams are unlisted in the BCS, they are listed with their Sagarin rank, and SOS is Sagarin-based.

Games for the upcoming weekend are bolded.

Note: All teams are included in the Sagarin data, including bowl-ineligible teams.

BCS No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) SOS: 26

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 22 Michigan Wolverines (5-2) SOS: 32 — Won 41-14
  • Sagarin No. 36 Tennessee Volunteers (3-4) SOS: 7 — Won 44-13
  • Sagarin No. 41 Missouri Tigers (3-4) SOS: 3 — Won 42-10
  • Sagarin No. 53 Arkansas Razorbacks (3-4) SOS: 21 — Won 52-0
  • Sagarin No. 55 Ole Miss Rebels (4-3) SOS: 47 — Won 33-14
  • Sagarin No. 59 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-2) SOS: 91 — Won 35-0

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 6 LSU Tigers (7-1) SOS: 34 — Nov. 3
  • BCS No. 11 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-0) SOS: 119 — Oct. 27
  • BCS No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) SOS: 16 — Nov. 10

BCS No. 2 Florida Gators (7-0) SOS: 10

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 6 LSU Tigers (7-1) SOS: 34 — Won 14-6
  • BCS No. 13 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) SOS: 23 — Won 44-11
  • BCS No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) SOS: 16 — Won 20-17
  • Sagarin No. 36 Tennessee Volunteers (3-4) SOS: 7 — Won 37-20
  • Sagarin No. 44 Vanderbilt Commodores (3-4) SOS: 12 — Won 31-17

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 10 Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) SOS: 65 — Oct. 27
  • BCS No. 12 Florida State Seminoles (7-1) SOS: 96 — Nov. 24
  • Sagarin No. 41 Missouri Tigers (3-4) SOS: 3 — Nov. 3

BCS No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats (7-0) SOS: 45

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (5-1) SOS: 28 — Won 24-19
  • BCS No. 19 West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2) SOS: 14 — Won 55-14
  • Sagarin No. 27 Iowa State Cyclones (4-3) SOS: 4 — Won 27-21
  • Sagarin No. 48 Miami Hurricanes (4-4) SOS: 13 — Won 52-13

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 14 Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-1) SOS: 31 — Oct. 27
  • BCS No. 23 Texas Longhorns (5-2) SOS: 19 — Dec. 1
  • Sagarin No. 35 TCU Horned Frogs (5-2) SOS: 51 — Nov. 10
  • Sagarin No. 33 Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-2) SOS: 48 — Nov. 3
  • Sagarin No. 46 Baylor Bears (3-3) SOS: 18 — Nov. 17

BCS No. 4 Oregon Ducks (7-0) SOS: 58

Important games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 23 Arizona Wildcats (4-3) SOS: 11 — Won 49-0
  • Sagarin No. 30 Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) SOS: 55 — Won 43-21
  • Sagarin No. 31 Washington Huskies (3-4) SOS: 1 — Won 52-21

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 7 Oregon State Beavers (6-0) SOS: 15 — Nov. 24
  • BCS No. 9 USC Trojans (6-1) SOS: 52 — Nov. 3
  • BCS No. 17 Stanford Cardinal  (5-2) SOS: 9 — Nov. 17

BCS No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-0) SOS: 20

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 17 Stanford Cardinal  (5-2) SOS: 9 — Won 20-13
  • BCS No. 22 Michigan Wolverines (5-2) SOS: 32 — Won 13-6
  • Sagarin No. 45 Michigan State Spartans (4-4) SOS: 24 — Won 20-3
  • Sagarin No. 48 Miami Hurricanes (4-4) SOS: 13 — Won 41-3
  • Sagarin No. 57 BYU Cougars (4-4) SOS: 33 — Won 17-14

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (5-1) SOS: 28 — Oct. 27
  • BCS No. 9 USC Trojans (6-1) SOS: 52 — Nov. 24

BCS No. 6 LSU Tigers (7-1) SOS: 34

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 2 Florida Gators (7-0) SOS: 10 — Lost 14-6
  • BCS No. 13 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) SOS: 23 — Won 23-21
  • BCS No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) SOS: 16 — Won 24-19
  • Sagarin No. 31 Washington Huskies (3-4) SOS: 1 — Won 41-3

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) SOS: 26 — Nov. 3
  • BCS No. 11 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-0) SOS: 119 — Nov. 10
  • Sagarin No. 53 Arkansas Razorbacks (3-4) SOS: 21 Nov. 23
  • Sagarin No. 55 Ole Miss Rebels (4-3) SOS: 47 — Nov. 17

BCS No. 7 Oregon State Beavers (5-0) SOS: 9

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 25 Wisconsin Badgers (6-2) SOS: 43 — Won 10-7
  • Sagarin No. 23 Arizona Wildcats (4-3) SOS: 11 — Won 38-25
  • Sagarin No. 38 UCLA Bruins (5-2) SOS: 53 — Won 27-20
  • Sagarin No. 57 BYU Cougars (4-4) SOS: 33 — Won 42-24

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 4 Oregon Ducks (7-0) SOS: 58 — Nov. 24
  • BCS No. 17 Stanford Cardinal  (5-2) SOS: 9 — Nov. 10
  • Sagarin No. 30 Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) SOS: 55 — Nov. 3
  • Sagarin No. 31 Washington Huskies (3-4) SOS: 1 — Oct. 27

BCS No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (5-1) SOS: 28

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats (7-0) SOS: 45 — Lost 24-19
  • BCS No. 14 Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-1) SOS: 31 — Won 41-20
  • BCS No. 23 Texas Longhorns (5-2) SOS: 19 — Won 63-21

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-0) SOS: 20 — Oct. 27
  • BCS No. 19 West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2) SOS: 14 — Nov. 17
  • Sagarin No. 27 Iowa State Cyclones (4-3) SOS: 4 — Nov. 3
  • Sagarin No. 33 Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-2) SOS: 48 — Nov. 24
  • Sagarin No. 35 TCU Horned Frogs (5-2) SOS: 51 — Dec. 1
  • Sagarin No. 46 Baylor Bears (3-3) SOS: 18 — Nov. 10

Second BCS Rankings of 2012: Kansas State leaps past Oregon for No. 3 slot

Try as it might, Oregon can’t seem to catch a break. Undefeated and taking care of business so far in 2012, Oregon slips a spot again in this week’s BCS standings, as Kansas State jumps to the No. 3 spot in the latest BCS rankings.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida Gators
3 Kansas State Wildcats
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Scroll down for more

An interesting set of circumstances led to the Wildcats’ jump past the Ducks. Because of Kansas State’s blowout victory over West Virginia, the Wildcats were able to get a big bounce in both the polls and the computers. Already with a sizable lead in the computers over Oregon, the Wildcats made up the difference in the polls that they needed to just slide by the Ducks in the second BCS rankings.

For its part, Florida was able to retain the surprising No. 2 spot it claimed in last week’s first BCS rankings, in fact bringing its BCS score up with an increase in human polls and computer support.

So Oregon lands at No. 4, behind two teams that are behind the Ducks in both human elements, which make up two-thirds of the BCS formula. Can the distance be made up? The Ducks will be afforded the opportunity to make up some ground in the computer rankings in the coming weeks, but it remains to be seen what potential impact victories over BCS No. 9 USC and BCS No. 7 Oregon State could have. This will be the intrigue and controversy of the BCS for the next few weeks at least.

Further down the BCS rankings, Notre Dame remains a steady No. 5, with LSU hot at its heels at No. 6. Oregon State, Oklahoma and USC all jump one spot with South Carolina out of the way, while Georgia, Mississippi State and Florida State round out the top 12.

We’re all set up for the controversy we’ve become accustomed to when it comes to BCS rankings. Let’s find out how it all plays out. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the second BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Two — October 21st

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9625
2 Florida Gators .9310
3 Kansas State Wildcats .9111
4 Oregon Ducks .8966
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .8512
6 LSU Tigers .7862
7 Oregon State Beavers .7421
8 Oklahoma Sooners .7126
9 USC Trojans .5767
10 Georgia Bulldogs .5379
11 Mississippi State Bulldogs .5265
12 Florida State Seminoles .4925
13 South Carolina Gamecocks .4797
14 Texas Tech Red Raiders .4736
15 Rutgers Scarlet Knights .4703
16 Louisville Cardinals .4196

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Solid across the top. Let’s look at spots 10-12. We projected a Mississippi State-Georgia-South Carolina finish. We got Georgia-Mis.s State-Florida State-South Carolina at 10-13. MSU just missed bumping the Georgia, and South Carolina just missed bumping Florida State.

Harris Interactive Poll Week Eight: Florida shrinks gap between itself and Oregon

At first glace, you might not see the change in the wind in the Harris Poll this week. But look closer, you’ll see that Oregon’s grasp on the No. 2 spot is weakening.

In fact, both Florida, which halves the distance between itself and Oregon, and Kansas State, which makes significant gains, creep closer to the Ducks. An all important result of a weekend full of statement victories around the country.

Explore for yourself:

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 21

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2868 .997
2 Oregon Ducks 2727 .949
3 Florida Gators 2622 .912
4 Kansas State Wildcats 2571 .894
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2374 .826
6 LSU Tigers 2270 .790
7 Oklahoma Sooners 2021 .703
8 Oregon State Beavers 2001 .696
9 USC Trojans 1934 .673
10 Florida State Seminoles 1911 .665
11 Georgia Bulldogs 1603 .558
12 Mississippi State Bulldogs 1602 .557

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Eight: Florida, Kansas State edge closer to Oregon

As expected, Oregon’s Thursday night victory over Arizona State is not enough to hold off both Florida and Kansas State from gaining on the Ducks in the latest Coaches’ Poll.

Kansas State actually slips to No. 4, but gains votes across the board. Not much in terms of surprises here, and though Florida’s slight advantage on the Wildcats might be a shock to some, the slight difference (two votes or .002 share) is a negligible difference.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 21

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1475 1.000
2 Oregon Ducks 1403 .951
3 Florida Gators 1329 .901
4 Kansas State Wildcats 1326 .899
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1221 .828
6 LSU Tigers 1164 .789
7 Oklahoma Sooners 1084 .735
8 USC Trojans 1014 .687
9 Oregon State Beavers 974 .660
10 Florida State Seminoles 948 .643
11 Georgia Bulldogs 850 .576
12 Mississippi State Bulldogs 800 .542

Projected BCS Standings: Kansas State climbs to No. 3 in second BCS rankings of 2012

Just two weeks into the BCS standings and the chase is on — it’s more than certain. That’s just what a weekend full of strong statement victories from the nation’s best will get you.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida Gators
3 Kansas State Wildcats
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Scroll down for more

So, are there any surprises in store for the second BCS rankings? Not many. But one could be on its way near the top.

When the first set of rankings were released, many were confused by an Oregon team that landed at No. 3. Somewhat a victim of not playing the weekend before and big victories from Florida and Kansas State, the Ducks landed at the unenviable position of the No. 3 spot in the BCS.

One weekend later, could they be headed down a spot again? They certainly wont be able to catch a Florida team coming off of a victory over previously BCS No. 7 South Carolina.

But more importantly, Kansas State registered a big victory over West Virginia. And not only that, it was box score big — important given voters habits. Votes will be split among the Gators, Ducks and Wildcats more strongly than they were last weekend. Combined with only slightly improved computer rankings, it could mean another knock down for Oregon and a bump up for Kansas State.

But there shouldn’t be much worry in Eugene. Games await the Ducks against USC and the surprisingly undefeated (and tomorrow’s likely BCS No. 7) Oregon State. Oregon has more than enough power to climb back to the No. 2 spot if the Ducks remain undefeated.

From there on down there isn’t a whole lot of shock to go around. LSU is likely to see a nice bump from a victory over Texas A&M, but is likely be unable to catch Notre Dame at No. 5. South Carolina’s loss sends them tumbling, allowing Oregon State, Oklahoma and USC to all climb up a spot.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Two (October 21)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida Gators
3 Kansas State Wildcats
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6 LSU Tigers
7 Oregon State Beavers
8 Oklahoma Sooners
9 USC Trojans
10 Mississippi State Bulldogs
11 Georgia Bulldogs
12 South Carolina Gamecocks

Heisman Watch Week Eight: Klein rules the weekend

Collin Klein

Collin Klein picked a good time to have one of the best games of his collegiate career. Matched against the Heisman favorite and a nationally ranked conference opponent, Klein shone in ways he had yet to in 2012, combining for seven touchdowns (four on the ground, three through to go with more than 360 yards of total offense.

Klein’s performance when matched up against Geno Smith’s is all the more impressive, as Klein is now as serious a contender for the trophy as we’ve got.

Geno Smith

If last weekend punched some holes in Geno Smith’s Heisman Trophy candidacy, this weekend was more like tearing open the campaign. Against Collin Klein and Kansas State, Smith was well outshone by his fellow Heisman combatant.

Smith, the stat sheet stuffer in the early parts of the season, posted just 143 yards passing and threw two picks against just one touchdown toss. Klein, however, was compiling the best statistical performance of his career. Smith will have work to do.

Montee Ball

When Wisconsin was at its best in 2011, Montee Ball and James White were rushing all over Big Ten defenses, forcing opponents to submit to a crushing attack. The two were at it again on Saturday, as Ball rushed for 166 and two touchdowns in the Badgers battering of Minnesota.

Sure, White had more yards — and one more touchdown — but Ball’s season-long consistency returns him to the Heisman conversation.

Manti Te’o

It’s becoming hard to ignore the performances Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o is putting up week after week. Against BYU, the Irish linebacker had 10 tackles and a key interception in Notre Dame’s closer-than-expected victory over the Cougars. And that’s no surprise.

The senior star already had three interceptions going into the key Saturday showdown in South Bend to go with his 57 tackles coming into Saturday. With some key games coming for Notre Dame, continually strong performances could mean another trip to New York City for a defensive player.

Braxton Miller

Before leaving Saturday’s game with an injury that sent him to the hospital, Braxton Miller was well on his way to another statistically strong game. But all of that matters little to the Buckeye faithful and anyone interested in Miller’s future, as a vicious tackle from behind sent the star quarterback to the sidelines and then the hospital on the day. Whether Miller can return in the Buckeyes’ next game is to be seen, but his Heisman hopes remain still string.

On The Radar:

Denard Robinson

Robinson did enough to bring the Wolverines their first victory over Michigan State in his tenure at Michigan. But the statistics weren’t there. Will they be in the Big Ten stretch run?

De’Anthony Thomas

Thomas was more than contained on Thursday night against Arizona State. Can he turn it back up for the stretch run for the undefeated Ducks?

BCS Implications and Schedule Strength Worksheet Post-Week Eight

Down the stretch of the BCS season, a team’s opponents become an important component of a team’s overall resume to watch.

Not only does it help to define the relative strength of said team, but also has a large effect on that team’s BCS computer performance.

With that in mind, we’ve compiled a look at the BCS’s top teams and their important games — both already played and upcoming — to get a better perspective on which teams’ performances will have implications on the BCS.

Each week we’ll give the rundown for the number of teams that seem to be within striking distance of the top two spots.The second BCS rankings reveal a shortening of the “striking distance” to just the top six teams that remain undefeated and have an immediate shot at the top two spots.

Each team is listed with their current BCS rank, record and strength of schedule (according to Jeff Sagarin’s ratings).

Below each BCS contender are their most important opponents, both which they have already played (with those results) and those upcoming.

Their opponents will also be listed with a record and their current Sagarin or BCS ranking depending on which is available. Teams will be listed in order of importance to that team’s BCS performance. Each opponent is also listed with an SOS to give you a better sense of how they might perform in the coming weeks. Games this weekend are bolded.

BCS No. 1 LSU Tigers (8-0) SOS: 13

Important Games Already Played

  • BCS No. 7 Oregon (6-1) SOS: 30 — Won 40-27
  • BCS No. 23 Auburn (5-3) SOS: 1 — Won 45-10
  • BCS No. 25 West Virginia (5-2) SOS: 66 — Won 47-21
  • Sagarin No. 23 Florida (4-3) SOS: 23 — Won 41-11
  • Sagarin No. 44 Tennessee (3-4) SOS: 4 — Won 38-7

Important Games Remaining

  • BCS No. 2 Alabama (8-0) SOS: 35 — Nov. 5
  • BCS No. 10 Arkansas (6-1) SOS: 73 — Nov. 25
  • SEC Championship Game (Potential)

BCS No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) SOS: 35

Important Games Already Played

  • BCS No. 10 Arkansas (6-1) SOS: 73 — Won 38-14
  • BCS No. 19 Penn State (7-1) SOS: 67 — Won 27-11
  • Sagarin No. 23 Florida (4-3) SOS: 23 — Won 38-10
  • Sagarin No. 44 Tennessee (3-4) SOS: 4 — Won 37-6

Important Games Remaining

  • BCS No. 1 LSU (7-0) SOS: 10 — Nov. 5
  • BCS No. 23 Auburn (5-3) SOS: 1 — Nov. 26
  • SEC Championship Game (Potential)

BCS No. 3 Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-0) SOS: 9

Important Games Already Played

  • BCS No. 16 Texas A&M (5-2) SOS: 3 — Won 30-29
  • BCS No. 24 Texas (4-2) SOS: 14 — Won 38-26
  • Sagarin No. 30 Tulsa (4-3) SOS: 40 — Won 59-33
  • Sagarin No. 34 Missouri (3-4) SOS: 5 — Won 45-24

Important Games Remaining

  • BCS No. 8 Kansas State (7-0) SOS: 29 — Nov. 5
  • BCS No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners (6-1) SOS: 15 — Dec. 3
  • BCS No. 20 Texas Tech (5-2) SOS: 22 — Nov. 12
  • Sagarin No. 17 Baylor (4-2) SOS: 28 — Oct. 29
  • Sagarin No. 48 Iowa State (3-4) SOS: 7 — Nov. 18

BCS No. 4 Boise State Broncos (7-0) SOS: 31

Important Games Already Played

  • BCS No. 20 Georgia (5-2) SOS: 17 — Won 35-21
  • Sagarin No. 30 Tulsa (4-3) SOS: 40 — Won 41-21
  • Sagarin No. 40 Nevada (4-3) SOS: 31 — Won 30-10

Important Games Remaining

  • Sagarin No. 46 TCU (5-2) SOS: 86 — Nov. 12

BCS No. 5 Clemson Tigers (8-0) SOS: 44

Important Games Already Played

  • BCS No. 12 Virginia Tech (7-1) SOS: 45 — Won 23-3
  • BCS No. 23 Auburn (5-3) SOS: 1 — Won 38-24
  • Sagarin No. 35 North Carolina (5-3) SOS: 36 — Won 59-31

Important Games Remaining

  • BCS No. 13 South Carolina (6-1) SOS: 39 — Nov. 26
  • Sagarin No. 39 Georgia Tech (6-2) SOS: 77 — Oct. 29
  • ACC Championship Game (Potential)

BCS No. 6 Stanford Cardinal (7-0) SOS: 92

Important Games Already Played

  • Sagarin No. 29 Washington (5-1) SOS: 63 — Won 65-21

Important Games Remaining

  • BCS No. 7 Oregon (6-1) SOS: 30 — Nov. 12
  • Sagarin No. 15 USC (6-1) SOS: 26 — Oct. 29
  • Sagarin No. 43 Notre Dame (4-3) SOS: 11 — Nov. 26
  • Pac-12 Championship Game (Potential)