Projected BCS Standings: Kansas State to Claim Top Spot in Fifth BCS Rankings of 2012

While you can’t erase six years of dominance in one weekend, it’s certainly a shock to the system.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Kansas State Wildcats
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Alabama Crimson Tide
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

Yes, for the first time in more than two years, no SEC team will occupy one of the top two spots in tomorrow’s BCS rankings, as Kansas State and Oregon will claim those distinctions tomorrow.

That’s just what Alabama’s loss to Texas A&M as the season enters its home stretch will do, as a shakeup is in store for the BCS.

But perhaps more importantly, the shift in the BCS tide could mean a non-SEC BCS champion, breaking the conference’s dominating six-year run at claiming the BCS’s crown. Year after year the SEC was able to produce one contender from the heap that the conference seemed to create, but this year, Texas A&M might have delivered the final blow in a series of knockouts traded inside the conference, one that would spell the end of the streak.

Alabama will land just behind the three remaining undefeated eligible squads tomorrow, and just ahead of once-beaten Georgia. Given the lack of SEC strength in the top two spots, spots four through nine will be all SEC, all the time. Alabama and Georgia lead a contingent of SEC squads that is seemingly endless. But despite the dominance in sheer numbers, that top spot might remain elusive the rest of the way home.

Florida State, still struggling with poor computer showings, lands at No. 10, with the surprising Clemson and the steady Oklahoma rounding out the top 12.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Five (November 11th)

Rank Team
1 Kansas State Wildcats
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Alabama Crimson Tide
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 Florida Gators
7 LSU Tigers
8 Texas A&M Aggies
9 South Carolina Gamecocks
10 Florida State Seminoles
11 Oklahoma Sooners
12 Clemson Tigers

BCS implications and strength of schedule worksheet for Week 11

Just look what one opponent can do. Alabama, languishing somewhat surprisingly behind Notre Dame and Kansas State in the computer polls for weeks, beats LSU and suddenly claims the nation’s top spot in the BCS computers.

That’s just one example of the impact of your schedule strength and what you’ve accomplished on the BCS. With the season winding down, you have to dig deeper. Not only is it important who you beat, but who your opponents beat later on. Opponents’ opponents’ opponents begin to matter.

So look closely at the remaining schedule and see if you can find the patterns and hints as we lead up to the season’s final weeks.

We’ll be compiling our implications and schedule strength worksheet every week the rest of the season. We’ll use the BCS rankings and Jeff Sagarin’s computer ranking to compile a look at what the nation’s best teams have accomplished, where they’re headed and the potential pitfalls and dangers associated with their upcoming schedule.

What will you find here? The top eight BCS teams (or smaller, if the “striking distance” shrinks), along with their record and strength of schedule, according to Sagarin.

Each team is also listed with key games already played, and key games to come. Key games are any against the BCS top 25 or the Sagarin top 60. If teams are unlisted in the BCS, they are listed with their Sagarin rank, and SOS is Sagarin-based.

Games for the upcoming weekend are bolded.

Note: All teams are included in the Sagarin data, including bowl-ineligible teams.

BCS No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0) SOS: 17

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 7 LSU Tigers (7-2) SOS: 19 — Won 21-17
  • BCS No. 21 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-2) SOS: 71 — Won 38-7
  • Sagarin No. 21 Michigan Wolverines (6-3) SOS: 38 — Won 41-14
  • Sagarin No. 29 Missouri Tigers (4-5) SOS: 2 — Won 42-10
  • Sagarin No. 33 Ole Miss Rebels (5-4) SOS: 31 — Won 33-14
  • Sagarin No. 42 Tennessee Volunteers (4-5) SOS: 14 — Won 44-13
  • Sagarin No. 59 Arkansas Razorbacks (4-5) SOS: 41 — Won 52-0

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) SOS: 20 — Nov. 10
  • SEC Championship Game — Potential

BCS No. 2 Kansas State Wildcats (9-0) SOS: 33

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners (6-2) SOS: 10 — Won 24-19
  • BCS No. 22 Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-3) SOS: 21 — Won 55-24
  • Sagarin No. 22 Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-3) SOS: 24 — Won 44-30
  • Sagarin No. 25 Iowa State Cyclones (5-4) SOS: 7 — Won 27-21
  • Sagarin No. 26 West Virginia Mountaineers (5-3) SOS: 29 — Won 55-14
  • Sagarin No. 52 Miami Hurricanes (5-4) SOS: 30 — Won 52-13

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 17 Texas Longhorns (7-2) SOS: 18 — Dec. 1
  • Sagarin No. 34 TCU Horned Frogs (6-3) SOS: 37 — Nov. 10
  • Sagarin No. 50 Baylor Bears (4-4) SOS: 27 — Nov. 17

BCS No. 3 Oregon Ducks (9-0) SOS: 47

Important games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 17 Arizona Wildcats (5-4) SOS: 3 — Won 49-0
  • Sagarin No. 18 Washington Huskies (5-4) SOS: 1 — Won 52-21
  • BCS No. 19 USC Trojans (6-3) SOS: 25 — Won 62-51
  • Sagarin No. 36 Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4) SOS: 38 — Won 43-21

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 11 Oregon State Beavers (7-1) SOS: 5 — Nov. 24
  • BCS No. 14 Stanford Cardinal  (7-2) SOS: 36 — Nov. 17
  • Pac-12 Championship Game — Potential

BCS No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-0) SOS: 16

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners (6-2) SOS: 10 — Won 30-13
  • BCS No. 14 Stanford Cardinal  (7-2) SOS: 36 — Won 20-13
  • Sagarin No. 21 Michigan Wolverines (6-3) SOS: 38 — Won 13-6
  • Sagarin No. 37 Michigan State Spartans (5-5) SOS: 23 — Won 20-3
  • Sagarin No. 47 Navy Midshipmen (6-3) SOS: 47 — Won 50-10
  • Sagarin No. 52 Miami Hurricanes (5-4) SOS: 30 — Won 41-3
  • Sagarin No. 56 BYU Cougars (5-4) SOS: 35 — Won 17-14

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 19 USC Trojans (6-3) SOS: 25 — Nov. 24

BCS No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (8-1) SOS: 31

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 6 Florida Gators (8-1) SOS: 6 — Won 17-9
  • BCS No. 8 South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2) SOS: 22 — Lost 35-7
  • Sagarin No. 27 Vanderbilt Commodores (5-4) SOS: 40 — Won 48-3
  • Sagarin No. 29 Missouri Tigers (4-5) SOS: 2 — Won 41-20
  • Sagarin No. 33 Ole Miss Rebels (5-4) SOS: 31 — Won 37-10
  • Sagarin No. 42 Tennessee Volunteers (4-5) SOS: 14 — Won 51-44

Important games remaining:

  • SEC Championship Game — Potential

BCS No. 6 Florida Gators (8-1) SOS: 6

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (8-1) SOS: 31 — Lost 17-9
  • BCS No. 7 LSU Tigers (7-2) SOS: 19 — Won 14-6
  • BCS No. 8 South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2) SOS: 22 — Won 44-11
  • BCS No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) SOS: 20 — Won 20-17
  • Sagarin No. 27 Vanderbilt Commodores (5-4) SOS: 40 — Won 31-17
  • Sagarin No. 29 Missouri Tigers (4-5) SOS: 2 — Won 14-7
  • Sagarin No. 42 Tennessee Volunteers (4-5) SOS: 14 — Won 37-20

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 10 Florida State Seminoles (8-1) SOS: 108 — Nov. 24
  • SEC Championship Game — Potential

BCS No. 7 LSU Tigers (7-2) SOS: 19

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0) SOS: 17 — Lost 21-17
  • BCS No. 6 Florida Gators (8-1) SOS: 6 — Lost 14-6
  • BCS No. 8 South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2) SOS: 22 — Won 23-21
  • BCS No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) SOS: 20 — Won 24-19
  • Sagarin No. 18 Washington Huskies (5-4) SOS: 1 — Won 41-3

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 21 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-2) SOS: 71 — Nov. 10
  • Sagarin No. 33 Ole Miss Rebels (5-4) SOS: 31 — Nov. 17
  • Sagarin No. 59 Arkansas Razorbacks (4-5) SOS: 41 — Nov. 23
  • SEC Championship Game — Potential

BCS No. 8 South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2) SOS: 22

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (8-1) SOS: 31 — Won 35-7
  • BCS No. 6 Florida Gators (8-1) SOS: 6 — Lost 44-11
  • BCS No. 7 LSU Tigers (7-2) SOS: 19 — Lost 23-21
  • Sagarin No. 27 Vanderbilt Commodores (5-4) SOS: 40 — Won 17-13
  • Sagarin No. 29 Missouri Tigers (4-5) SOS: 2 — Won 31-10
  • Sagarin No. 42 Tennessee Volunteers (4-5) SOS: 14 — Won 38-35

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 13 Clemson Tigers (7-1) SOS: 89 — Nov. 24
  • Sagarin No. 59 Arkansas Razorbacks (4-5) SOS: 41 — Nov. 10
  • SEC Championship Game — Potential

Fifth BCS Rankings of 2011: Oregon Up To No. 4 While Boise State, Stanford Tumble

Just when we thought we might have it figured out, more wrenches were thrown into the BCS mix in week 11, allowing for more upheaval and change in the most recent BCS standings.

Losses by formerly undefeated Stanford and Boise State sent both teams tumbling into the lower half of the top 10 this week, while Oregon’s victory over the Cardinal boosted the Ducks to a No. 4 spot. All but disregarded in the computers until last weekend, Oregon now sits pretty in both the human and computer elements, bowing at fourth in all three components.

Re-entry into the BCS title conversation was on tap for Oklahoma, Oregon and Arkansas this weekend as a result of the newest set of rankings, as the three make up the pack chasing LSU, Oklahoma State and Alabama, stagnant from a week ago.

Oklahoma stays ahead of Arkansas on the strength of consistent support from both the computers and human elements, which both favor the Sooners’ track record over that of the Razorbacks. Fair or not, both will have the chance to prove their worth in the coming weeks against the top two teams in the nation.

The ACC duo of Clemson and Virginia Tech land behind the title conversation group, followed by Stanford — punished severely for a disappointing loss to the Ducks at home.

Boise State rounds out the top 10, out of the title picture, and perhaps out of the BCS bowl picture, with Houston having the much easier road to its own conference championship, and in turn, an automatic bid at a BCS bowl as part of the stipulations for non-AQ conferences.

Here’s the fifth BCS rankings of 2011. Analysis shortly:

BCS Standings Week Five — November 13

Rank Team BCS Score
1 LSU Tigers .9933
2 Oklahoma State Cowboys .9642
3 Alabama Crimson Tide .9009
4 Oregon Ducks .8775
5 Oklahoma Sooners .8400
6 Arkansas Razorbacks .7974
7 Clemson Tigers .6935
8 Virginia Tech Hokies .6755
9 Stanford Cardinal .6747
10 Boise State Broncos .5959
11 Houston Cougars .5673
12 South Carolina Gamecocks .5278
13 Kansas State Wildcats .4965
14 Georgia Bulldogs .4528
15 Michigan State Spartans .4393
16 Nebraska Cornhuskers .3817

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCSvs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Not a bad week, switched Virginia Tech and Clemson. I think I might have some sort of latent bias for Virginia Tech… keep giving them more than I should. But otherwise, not too bad. Also should have seen Boise State staying ahead of Houston. Not the best call.

Harris Interactive Poll Week 11: LSU Gains Unanimous Support, Oregon Up To No. 4


A week after just missing unanimous support from the Harris Poll, LSU gains all 115 first-place votes to grab a perfect 1.000 BCS vote share.

Oregon jumps to No. 4 after beating Stanford, who only drops to No. 7 in the poll.

Boise State sees plenty of support disappear after losing to TCU, dropping to No. 11.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – November 13

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 LSU Tigers 2875 1.000
2 Oklahoma State Cowboys 2750 .957
3 Alabama Crimson Tide 2620 .911
4 Oregon Ducks 2545 .855
5 Oklahoma Sooners 2379 .827
6 Arkansas Razorbacks 2297 .799
7 Stanford Cardinal 2041 .710
8 Clemson Tigers 2024 .704
9 Virginia Tech Hokies 1949 .678
10 Houston Cougars 1792 .623
11 Boise State Broncos 1766 .614
12 Michigan State Spartans 1471 .512

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week 11: Oklahoma State Rises to No. 2, Oregon to No. 4


Boise State and Stanford’s losses give us just three undefeated teams in the nation. The two losses gave us a bit of upheaval in the Coaches’ Poll, as Oklahoma State climbs to No. 2, while Oregon’s victory over the Cardinal gives them enough to jump all the way to No. 4.

Arkansas is all the way up to No. 6, while Houston — the third undefeated team after LSU and Oklahoma State — rests at No. 10.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – November 13

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 LSU Tigers 1475 1.000
2 Oklahoma State Cowboys 1410 .956
3 Alabama Crimson Tide 1340 .908
4 Oregon Ducks 1300 .881
5 Oklahoma Sooners 1228 .833
6 Arkansas Razorbacks 1170 .793
7 Virginia Tech Hokies 1045 .708
8 Clemson Tigers 1042 .706
9 Stanford Cardinal 1024 .694
10 Houston Cougars 927 .628
11 Boise State Broncos 831 .563
12 Michigan State Spartans 791 .536

Projected BCS Standings: Oregon To Be Rewarded Heartily in Fifth BCS Rankings of 2011

Computers, voters and prognosticators are nice, but we never really see the truth until the games are played on the field.

That was proven once again this weekend as the seemingly infallible Boise State was defeated and Stanford fell hard at home to Oregon.

Two more undefeated teams have bit the dust, leaving us with just three: LSU, Oklahoma State and the unexpected powerhouse Houston Cougars.

Our fifth BCS rankings will reveal quite a bit about what we can expect the rest of the season, but of course, the play of the teams will dictate far more than anything else.

Don’t expect much change at the top. LSU and Oklahoma State continue to be in the BCS drivers seat — win out and both will be at the top come season’s end, and in the title game.

Alabama, who stuck ahead of Stanford last week, will once again probably stick at No. 3, ahead of the latest Pac-12 team to spring to the top of the pile, Oregon.

The Ducks are sure to get another big boost after its victory over Stanford, all the way up to No. 4. Boosts from both the human elements and another bump from the computers for beating a strong Stanford team will likely leap them past Oklahoma and keep them ahead of Arkansas. The Ducks could even challenge Alabama for the No. 3 spot, but for now, we’re projecting they fall just short.

Could the Ducks sneak by Alabama with a victory over USC next week? Possibly, but again, it remains to be seen.

Oklahoma will be right back in the thick of things at No. 5, awaiting its chance to play Oklahoma State on its last weekend of the season.

Losses by any of these teams would once again throw a wrench into any expectations of the season to come. Will we see an Alabama-LSU rematch? An Oregon-LSU rematch? Neither? The fact that we can’t possibly know means we’re upon best part of the college football season.

This is the remainder of the season waiting for us. With unexpected things happening nearly every weekend, its hard to project just how important each weekend might be. But that’s the reward for being college football fans.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of all of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Five (November 13th)

Rank Team
1 LSU Tigers
2 Oklahoma State Cowboys
3 Alabama Crimson Tide
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Oklahoma Sooners
6 Arkansas Razorbacks
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Virginia Tech Hokies
9 Stanford Cardinal
10 Houston Cougars
11 South Carolina Gamecocks
12 Boise State Broncos

Heisman Watch Week 11: Could Luck’s Loss Be Richardson, Moore or the Field’s Gain?

Trent Richardson

Proving once again that there are no easy weekend in the SEC, Richardson and Alabama had a difficult time getting in a groove against Mississippi State.

Richardson did, however, record 127 yards and a touchdown on the ground combined with 26 more yards through the air. It was Richardson’s score in the fourth quarter that all but sealed the tough victory for the Crimson Tide.

The junior’s Saturday night performance gives Richardson more than 1,000 yards on the season for the first time in his career to go with his 17 touchdowns.

Case Keenum

When 325 passing yards and three touchdown passes is an off day, you know you’ve put together a statistical season for the ages.

Houston quarterback Case Keenum has posted some of the best stat lines in the entire country this season, but Thursday’s performance from Keenum was uncharacteristically slow. Still, the all-time leader in touchdowns in FBS history had a strong night, and has solidified his name as one to watch as we reach the final portion of the college football season.

Two more games remain for Keenum and the Cougars — SMU and Tulsa — and with two more strong Keenum-esque performances, the Cougar signal-caller might just be able to throw a wrench into the Heisman race.

Russell Wilson

Teetering on the edge of the Heisman race, Russell Wilson had an inspired day against Minnesota, finishing 16-of-17 and passing for a season-high four touchdowns.

Wilson’s day could have been perfect, but receiver Nick Toon dropped Wilson’s final attempt mid-way through the third quarter, even though the pass was on the money. The performance likely keeps Wilson in the conversation at least for another week, but what is truly helping Wilson’s candidacy is the resiliency of Wisconsin after losing two straight. The senior’s performance will likely be weighed against the Badgers’ overall performance in the weeks to come.

Andrew Luck

Seemingly the leader in this race for weeks and weeks, Andrew Luck once again had a strong night against a tough Pac-12 foe. This time, however, Stanford was not able to pull of victory. And Luck’s stat line somewhat belied the actual performance he left on the field. Luck finished the night with 227 yards and three touchdowns.

Uncharacteristically, he also threw two interceptions, although the blame for one did not fall squarely on Luck’s throw. So now the question becomes, is the race open once again?

Luck still seems to be the prohibitive favorite here, and by a large margin. With a loss and a less-than-stellar performance, however, the question remains. Who, if anyone, will challenge Luck for this trophy?

Kellen Moore

Year in and year out, Boise State looks to break into the BCS conversation as a school with an outsider’s shot and an outsider’s mentality. Kellen Moore also has spent the past few seasons trying to break into the Heisman conversation and win the trophy from a non-AQ conference, something that is becoming more and more difficult to do. Moore, however, did make his way to New York City as a Heisman finalist last year, and Boise State seems just on the edge of breaking into the title game every season.

Unfortunately for both hopes, losses do no favors in terms of making the rest of the country believe you’re on the same level as the more well-exposed teams and quarterbacks. And when TCU beat Moore and the Broncos Saturday, both hopes were seemingly dashed.

Of course, Moore had another strong statistical performance, passing for more than 320 yards and two touchdowns, but the loss will certainly hurt his chances at the trophy itself.