Simulated BCS Rankings Week Two: Alabama, LSU continue to lead, while South Carolina springs to No. 5

Alabama and LSU might once again lead the simulated BCS rankings after two weekends of action, but after a handful of upsets and surprises, the rankings are anything but stagnant after two weeks of simulating the BCS.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 LSU Tigers
3 Oregon Ducks
4 USC Trojans
5 South Carolina Gamecocks
Scroll down for more

The fearsome foursome — the Crimson Tide, Tigers, Oregon and USC — continue to lead the simulated BCS rankings. USC, despite holding an edge on the Ducks in both polls, are undone by a far weaker showing in the computers for a second straight weekend.

The surprises begin early this week, as South Carolina lands at the No. 5 spot to give the SEC three teams in the simulated top five. The Gamecocks land just ahead of Oklahoma and Michigan State, both of which bow barely more than .01 behind South Carolina.

The Gamecocks were the beneficiaries of level support among all elements, while the Sooner suffer from a No. 23 ranking from the early Sagarin rankings, and Michigan State still trails both teams in the polls.

If any team is truly undone by a component, however, it is No. 10 Florida State, which rests comfortably the top six in both polls, but ranks below the point-receiving threshold in all three available computers, pulling in a zero aggregate computer score.

No. 8 Georgia and No. 9 Kansas State see stark improvements in the computer rankings and polls, in large part as a result of space created by the upsets of the weekend.

These simulated rankings are not necessarily the most accurate in terms of reflecting the actual components of the BCS, but they do give an interesting first look at the BCS picture.

Without the Harris Interactive Poll (1/3 of the formula) and three of the six computers (all six of which account for another third), these rankings are about 50 percent “complete.” What we do have, however, is the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, as well as early looks at Kenneth Massey, Richard Billingsley and Jeff Sagarin, for what we’d call a 50 percent confidence that these rankings are a “good” reflection of the BCS.

We took a computer aggregate without eliminating any of the three available to keep extra transparency, but kept the formula for the human elements intact while subbing the AP Poll for the Harris Poll.

The first BCS rankings will be available in October, but for now, this will have to do. Enjoy!

Check out the full simulation worksheet. These simulated ranking reflect the following formula:

BCS Score = (AP Poll Score/1500 + Coaches Poll Score/1475 + Computer Poll Aggregate/75)/3

Here are the simulated rankings after week two:

Simulated BCS Standings — September 10

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9924
2 LSU Tigers .9437
3 Oregon Ducks .8562
4 USC Trojans .8445
5 South Carolina Gamecocks .7178
6 Oklahoma Sooners .7074
7 Michigan State Spartans .7069
8 Georgia Bulldogs .6964
9 Kansas State Wildcats .5337
10 Florida State Seminoles .5183
11 West Virginia Mountaineers .5063
12 Clemson Tigers .4816
13 Stanford Cardinal .3962
14 Virginia Tech Hokies .3755
15 Texas Longhorns .3685
16 Florida Gators .3570

 

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USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Two: LSU up to No. 2

On the strength of their victory over Washington, LSU is your new No. 2 team in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, as the Tigers pass USC, who falls to No. 3.

The real story of the weekend was the upsets suffered by Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Nebraska and Wisconsin, which all see their stocks plummet in these rankings, as well as in the AP and in the various computer elements.

Oregon and Oklahoma round out the top five in the Coaches’ Poll, as neither struggled much this weekend. Much of the top 10 remained stagnant, as starting with No. 10 Michigan State, teams begin to enjoy bumps from those who had occupied those spots falling over the weekend.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – September 9

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1455 .986
2 LSU Tigers 1380 .936
3 USC Trojans 1363 .924
4 Oregon Ducks 1292 .876
5 Oklahoma Sooners 1203 .816
6 Florida State Seminoles 1153 .782
7 Georgia Bulldogs 1120 .759
8 West Virginia Mountaineers 1024 .694
9 South Carolina Gamecocks 1008 .683
10 Michigan State Spartans 950 .644
11 Clemson Tigers 904 .613
12 Texas Longhorns 730 .495

BlogPoll Week Two: Alabama on top, Michigan State emerges on weekend of chaos

Alabama has proven the more consistent of the four top teams established early in this season — Oregon, USC, LSU and the Tide.

So they’re No. 1 in my second BlogPoll. Michigan State is also your big winner this week as the rest of the Big Ten crumbles.

Don’t agree? Criticize away!


Simulated BCS Rankings Week One: LSU and Alabama are on top again

Update: An earlier version of these simulations contained a mistake in the summing of the computer rankings. Check out the full worksheet. These simulated ranking reflect the following formula:

BCS Score = (AP Poll Score/1500 + Coaches Poll Score/1475 + Computer Poll Aggregate/75)/3

Nearly nine months after the 2011 season ended with Alabama walking off of the field at the BCS National Championship Game holding the crystal football high, the Crimson Tide return with a bang, leading our first set of simulated BCS rankings convincingly and almost unsurprisingly.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Matchup
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 LSU Tigers
3 Oregon Ducks
4 USC Trojans
5 Oklahoma Sooners
Scroll down for more

The Tide completely dominated previously top-10 Michigan on college football’s inaugural weekend of 2012, opening up the season in a way that a defending national champion would be expected to.

On the strength of that victory, and strong hype heading into the season, the Tide enjoyed wide-spread praise from the polls available, and sit comfortably atop the simulated BCS rankings after the extended first weekend of the 2012 season.

LSU takes the No. 2  spot in an eerily similar situation that ended the 2011 season, with the two SEC teams leading the way.

USC, which enjoyed a similarly easy victory over Hawaii, is in at No. 4 after losing some support in both the AP and Coaches’ Poll by not playing the caliber of team that the Crimson Tide were able to decimate and lacking in the computer rankings available.

No. 3 Oregon and No. 5 Oklahoma round out a top five of teams already well within striking distance of the top two spots should things get unpredictable come the midseason or later, as they tend to do.

These simulated rankings are not necessarily the most accurate in terms of reflecting the actual components of the BCS, but they do give an interesting look into the future.

Without the Harris Interactive Poll (1/3 of the formula) and three of the six computers (all six of which account for another third), these rankings are about 50 percent “complete.” What we do have, however, is the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, as well as early looks at Kenneth Massey, Richard Billingsley and Jeff Sagarin, for what we’d call a 50 percent confidence that these rankings are a “good” reflection of the BCS.

We took a computer aggregate without eliminating any of the three available to keep extra transparency, but kept the formula for the human elements intact.

The first BCS rankings will be available in October, but for now, this will have to do. Enjoy!

Here are the simulated rankings after week one:

Simulated BCS Standings — September 4

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9895
2 LSU Tigers .9245
3 Oregon Ducks .8767
4 USC Trojans .8704
5 Oklahoma Sooners .7824
6 South Carolina Gamecocks .6620
7 Michigan State Spartans .6528
8 Arkansas Razorbacks .6437
9 Florida State Seminoles .5241
10 Georgia Bulldogs .5230
11 West Virginia Mountaineers .4821
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys .4762
13 Wisconsin Badgers .4745
14 Nebraska Cornhuskers .4325
15 Clemson Tigers .4151
16 Michigan Wolverines .3600

 

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week One: Alabama reclaims No. 1 spot, USC up to No. 2

On the strength of their victory over previously top-10 Michigan, Alabama claims the No. 1 spot in the first USA Today Coaches’ Poll of the 2012 regular season.

USC, after toppling Hawaii in resounding fashion, takes the second spot, bumping LSU down to No. 3 from their preseason perch as No. 1.

Oregon and Oklahoma round out the top five. The Ducks received a lone first-place vote, while Alabama (37), USC (14) and LSU (7) collected the rest of the 59 first place ballots from the coaches.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – September 4

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1447 .981
2 USC Trojans 1398 .948
3 LSU Tigers 1375 .932
4 Oregon Ducks 1286 .872
5 Oklahoma Sooners 1171 .794
6 Florida State Seminoles 1144 .756
7 Georgia Bulldogs 1092 .740
8 West Virginia Mountaineers 1032 .700
9 South Carolina Gamecocks 943 .639
10 Arkansas Razorbacks 929 .630
11 Michigan State Spartans 868 .588
12 Clemson Tigers 826 .560

BlogPoll Week One: The Fabulous Four of USC, LSU, Alabama and Oregon Reign

The four teams prove spectacular on college football’s first weekend and there seems little reason to put anyone else in the top four.

West Virginia impresses most among those outside of the upper echelon, and I bumped them up to No. 5.

Suggest and criticize away!

2012 BCS AQ Conference Profile: Pac-12


BCS Know How is taking you through the six automatic-qualifying BCS conferences in preparation for the 2012 season. Our easy-to-digest previews continue with the Pac-12, a conference experiencing a true renaissance. Scroll down to see our profiles of the other conferences.

Conference: Pacific 12 Conference (Pac-12)

Active Since: 1915

Current Member Schools:

North Division: California Golden Bears, Oregon Ducks, Oregon State Beavers, Stanford Cardinal, Washington Huskies, Washington State Cougars
South Division: Arizona Wildcats, Arizona State Sun Devils, UCLA Bruins, Southern California (USC) Trojans, Colorado Buffaloes, Utah Utes  (12)

Bowl Affiliations: Rose Bowl (BCS), New Mexico Bowl, MAACO Las Vegas Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Fight Hunger Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Sun Bowl (7)

2011 Results:
Conference Champion — Oregon
Conference Runner-up — UCLA
BCS Bowl Results: Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma State 41 vs. Stanford 38; Rose Bowl – Oregon 45 vs. Wisconsin 38
Overall Bowl Record: 2-5
Heisman Vote Recipients: Andrew Luck (Second Overall); Matt Barkley (Sixth Overall), LaMichael James (10th Overall)

2012 Outlook: There’s a simple reason the SEC has been the conference everyone has associated with the BCS in the last decade. The south expects to dominate the bowl series, and especially the national title game. But in recent years, and in the years leading up to the six-title SEC streak, the Pacific had a lot to say about the BCS.

Most notably, USC had plenty to say in those mid-2000s, before a non-BCS season and then NCAA sanctions kept them quiet for a while. But with the expected return of the Trojans to national prominence, so too has the Pac-12 become relevant once again in a national title discussion.

Oregon and Stanford have spent the last two bowl seasons representing the conference of champions on the BCS stage, and this year, bowl-eligible-again USC looks to head there as well. The Trojans expect to vie for a national title, but so too do the Ducks have title aspirations. Stanford could be out of the national title conversation, but there’s no denying a renaissance in Palo Alto is at hand.

Washington, under the guidance of Steve Sarkisian and leadership of quarterback Keith Price seems ready to make some noise as well.

The conference is stacked, that’s for sure. Can it compete with the SEC? That remains to be seen.

Heisman Hopefuls: USC QB Matt Barkley, USC WR Robert Woods, Oregon RB De’Anthony Thomas, Oregon RB Kenjon Barner, Washington QB Keith Price, Washington State QB Jeff Tuel, California WR Keenen Allen

BCS Know How’s 2012 Predictions:
Conference Champion — USC Trojans
Conference Runner-up — Oregon Ducks
BCS bids: USC Trojans — BCS National Title Game; Oregon Ducks — Rose Bowl
Heisman Finalists — USC QB Matt Barkley