Simulated BCS Rankings Week Six: Clemson, Stanford Continue to Battle

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Though we’re still two weeks removed from the first official BCS rankings of the season, with so many teams running through the early part of their schedules without a bump, it seems like we’re bound to be in for some real intrigue.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Ohio State Buckeyes
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The kind of back-and-forth in the rankings that we’ve come to expect manifests itself this week with the ongoing battle between Clemson and Stanford, two teams that have traded the No. 3 spot in our simulated BCS rankings since the start of the season. How are we figuring these out?

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’ve begun to use all available BCS versions of the BCS component computers, this week that includes: Colley’s Matrix, Massey’s BCS, Sagarin, Anderson & Hester and Billingsley. However, we will not remove any of the rankings, as BCS usually does, as to get a better overall sense of where we stand. No need to eliminate when we don’t have the complete picture to begin with. Five computers used means a total possible score of 125 in the component.
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with about 61% accuracy

This week, despite Stanford’s bounding gains in the computer rankings, it’s Clemson that takes the No. 3 spot. That’s what happens when the two-thirds of the formula based on the voting polls favors the Tigers. That margin, however, is small. To the point where no more than a handful of votes in either the Coaches’ or AP polls could have swung the tides in Stanford’s favor.

So with the Tigers and Cardinal set in their 3-4 tandem, we instead turn our attention to Ohio State and Florida State, two teams that saw wide-spread support from the voters in the early going, but struggled to find that computer love every BCS contender needs.

All that has changed in the last few days, as victories over Northwestern and Maryland, respectively, have given the duo new life in the computers. The Buckeyes averaged a 8.6 ranking while Florida State pulled in an average of 4.6 across the five computer rankings.

Both are stronger than they had been in the early goings of these simulations, positive steps for two teams possibly gearing up for a fight to the finish with a bevy of other undefeated squads.

But enough talk — here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the sixth week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — October 6

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9789
2 Oregon Ducks .8893
3 Clemson Tigers .8736
4 Stanford Cardinal .8627
5 Ohio State Buckeyes .8186
6 Florida State Seminoles .7982
7 Georgia Bulldogs .7466
8 Oklahoma Sooners .6560
9 LSU Tigers .6256
10 Louisville Cardinals .5699
11 UCLA Bruins .5664
12 Texas A&M Aggies .5617
13 Miami Hurricanes .5100
14 South Carolina Gamecocks .4769
15 Baylor Bears .4668
16 Michigan Wolverines .3827

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Simulated BCS Rankings Week Five: Ohio State Up To No. 5, Buckeyes Here To Stay?

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As the real BCS rankings get closer, focus paid to one marquee game can have big ripple effects across the country if things turn out one way or another.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Stanford Cardinal
4 Clemson Tigers
5 Ohio State Buckeyes
Scroll down for more

This weekend, that game was LSU-Georgia, and the Bulldogs’ second victory over a top-10 team before September is even out (especially after losing to a top-10 team to start the year) was felt in all over the BCS component rankings this week.

Georgia’s leap into the top echelon of the simulated BCS rankings is significant, however, it’s Ohio State’s step in the top five that should turn heads.

How did we figure these out?

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’ve begun to use all available BCS versions of the BCS component computers, this week that includes: Colley’s Matrix, Massey’s BCS, Sagarin and Billingsley
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with about 56% accuracy

Ohio State, well back of the pack in recent weeks despite its support in the polls, leaps to No. 5 this time on the strength of teams moving out of their way and an improved showing in the computers. LSU’s loss helped to make the Buckeyes’ entrance into the top five possible, while also bolstering the rankings of the teams that occupied similar space last week. The Buckeyes just clear No. 6 Georgia (.0066 behind) and No. 7 Florida State (.0234 behind).

Stanford is another clear beneficiary, picking up much of LSU’s support and using another easy Pac-12 victory to gain some steam and move up to No. 3, just hopping over No. 4 Clemson.

The Bulldogs land at No. 6, as they rebound on the strength of the country’s most difficult schedule. Oklahoma also lands some unexpected gained support at No. 8, likely as a result of Oklahoma State’s loss that placed the Sooners as the clear favorites in the Big 12.

Here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the fifth week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — September 29

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9914
2 Oregon Ducks .9107
3 Stanford Cardinal .8594
4 Clemson Tigers .8550
5 Ohio State Buckeyes .7604
6 Georgia Bulldogs .7538
7 Florida State Seminoles .7370
8 Oklahoma Sooners .6569
9 Texas A&M Aggies .6154
10 LSU Tigers .6078
11 Louisville Cardinals .6058
12 UCLA Bruins .5366
13 South Carolina Gamecocks .5021
14 Washington Huskies .4983
15 Northwestern Wildcats .3756
16 Miami Hurricanes .3737

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Five: Georgia Rises Fast

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Winning nationally televised SEC games often has this kind of impact on things…

Georgia reaps plenty of benefit in this week’s USA Today Coaches’ Poll after beating LSU on Saturday, moving from No. 10 to No. 6, while LSU falls from No. 6 to No. 11. Elsewhere in the poll, things are seemingly much unchanged, though Clemson is able to capture one first place vote, making it three teams — the Tigers, Alabama and Oregon — with that kind of support anywhere in the poll

Alabama, for its part, stays well ahead of the pack with a nearly perfect .997 vote share, but those few first-place votes it’s losing to Oregon and Clemson keep them from completing a clean sweep.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – September 29

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1546 .997
2 Oregon Ducks 1479 .954
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 1397 .901
4 Clemson Tigers 1352 .872
5 Stanford Cardinal 1325 .855
6 Georgia Bulldogs 1148 .741
7 Louisville Cardinals 1147 .740
8 Florida State Seminoles 1129 .728
9 Texas A&M Aggies 1072 .691
10 Oklahoma Sooners 964 .622
11 LSU Tigers 931 .601
12 South Carolina Gamecocks 860 .555

Projected 2014 BCS Bowls — September 29

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The ACC, long a secondary consideration in the BCS era (a 3-13 record in BCS bowls doesn’t help) is having a 2013 to remember thus far. And when some teams expected to thrive in the early going fall apart unexpectedly, it’s the ACC that’s there to pick up the pieces.

BCS Bowl Projections
Bowl Matchup
Title Game Alabama vs. Stanford
Rose Bowl Oregon vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl Georgia vs. Florida State
Orange Bowl Clemson vs. Michigan
Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma vs. Louisville
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With Oklahoma State’s surprising loss to West Virginia exposing some very important flaws in the Cowboys’ attack, the Big 12 looks like Oklahoma’s to lose, and perhaps a one-BCS-bid conference in 2013. That’ll happen in a 10-team conference and unexpected early losses.

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide (BCS No. 1) vs. Stanford Cardinal (BCS No. 2)

Comment: Alabama finally flexed the defensive muscle against Ole Miss that had been so integral to its back-to-back runs to national titles these last two years. And with that reassurance, it looks even more like the Crimson Tide can make a return trip to the title game. Stanford started a bit slow against Washington State, but had little trouble dispatching of the Cougars by the end of the night.

Rose Bowl: Oregon Ducks (At-large selection) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten champion)

Comment: Oregon again put up wild offensive numbers, this time destroying California in Autzen with ease. Ohio State had a little more trouble with Wisconsin, but was able to take advantage of a rowdy crowd at the Horseshoe to put up another win. Do either of these teams have losses in their future? Looking at their schedules and how they’ve played thus far, perhaps not. Would that be enough for Ohio State to get to the title game? It’s an important question, but it more than likely would for Oregon.

Sugar Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs (At-large selection) vs. Florida State Seminoles (At-large selection)

Comment: Georgia might have been the first team with a legit national title chance to stumble out of the gate in 2013, but since losing to Clemson, the Bulldogs have looked every bit their preseason hype. Especially in their all-important victory over LSU on Saturday, the Bulldogs showed why they should not yet be counted out of the title race. But if they fall short, the Sugar Bowl could be waiting. If Florida State, clearly among the best of a revived ACC conference, finishes the season with just a loss to Clemson, they’d be well deserving of this bid as well.

Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers (ACC champion) vs. Michigan Wolverines (At-large selection)

Comment: Clemson has led the charge of resurgence in the ACC, and spent little time toying around this week with Wake Forest. Another convincing victory for the Tigers makes it look all the more likely that they’ll be the eventual ACC champs, and if they can capture the conference title without making the title game, they’ll land in the Orange Bowl. Michigan should call for at least a look as far as at-large bids go, and have been able to stay undefeated despite some troubles.

Fiesta Bowl: Louisville Cardinals (AAC champion) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (Big 12 champion)

Comment: Louisville had the week off to watch from a distance as the previous Big 12 favorite Oklahoma State fell hard against West Virginia. It was Oklahoma, instead, that looked like the class of the conference by beating Notre Dame on the road. If the Sooners can match that kind of performance in conference play, they’ll be set for a Big 12 title and the Fiesta Bowl bid that comes with.