Projected BCS Standings: Oregon To Claim No. 2 In Second BCS Standings of 2013

BCSWeek2

Time seems to run out slowly when you’re making a chase for a BCS bid. Whether it’s on the clock to hold on to the last-second victory or the weeks ticking slowly by in the last BCS year.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
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Teams from around the country had little trouble dispatching of less difficult foes, but for a few teams, the time needed to get victories on Saturday must have seemed to move extra slow.

And in the case of Missouri, a crushing loss was probably already a death sentence for the season as far as a national title game bid is concerned.

So what else, if anything, did we learn this week? Mostly that the nation’s top BCS teams in its first iteration — Alabama, Oregon and Florida State — are very good. This week, like last week, we’ll see a fight to the finish for No. 2 between Oregon and Florida State.

The better victory this week belongs to the Ducks and not the Seminoles, and with that in mind, expect Oregon to make enough headway in the computers and the human polls to end the Seminoles one-week run at No. 2. Oregon is projected to take back that spot this week.

Elsewhere, the Ducks’ Pac-12 mates Stanford and Big 12 surprise Baylor will be the likely beneficiaries of the Missouri loss, as the Cardinal and Bears will fight for the No. 5 spot, along with Miami. Also look out for Oklahoma, fresh off a victory over previous No. 10 Texas Tech.

An interesting fight is also breaking out between Fresno State and Northern Illinois. Fresno State might remain ahead of Northern Illinois after the Bulldogs finished of San Diego State in OT and the Huskies had an easy victory, mostly because of the lateness of Fresno’s game. But the truly interesting part will come when the BCS rankings wind down. Who will be in front? For now we’re projecting that the Huskies will, even with Fresno possibly taking these first two weeks as the leader in the BCS buster clubhouse.

It’ll all be somewhat familiar when the second BCS rankings are released tomorrow, but with some changes that could play into the chase for the title game when the season winds up. The minutia becomes all the more important this time of year. Good thing we’re here to take a look at it.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Two (October 27)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
6 Baylor Bears
7 Miami Hurricanes
8 Clemson Tigers
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Missouri Tigers
12 Auburn Tigers
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Projected BCS Standings: Oklahoma State to Secure No. 3 Spot in Second BCS Rankings of 2011

Around the country, Saturday afternoon was an uneventful few hours. Fast forward to Saturday night, and all hell broke loose.

Suddenly, Michigan State was threatening Wisconsin and Oklahoma was down early to Texas Tech delay after Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma State and Clemson had skated to victory.

Furious comebacks fell short, both the Badgers and Sooners suffered their first losses of the season and we have our first BCS shakeup of the season awaiting us when the rankings are released tomorrow.

So who lands where?

At the top little will change. LSU’s victory over Auburn will likely be valued more by both the computers and the human element than Alabama’s shaky victory over Tennessee, keeping the Tigers atop the BCS standings tomorrow.

Of course, where Oklahoma vacates its spot at No. 3 is where it gets interesting.

You’d be smart to think Oklahoma State will likely take that spot for the time being, especially since Wisconsin — who had a chance to make a big jump with a victory over Michigan State — failed to capitalize.

Boise State, Clemson and Stanford are likely to fall into place further down the line, shifting up spots to fill the space vacated by the Sooners and Badgers. Keep an eye on Stanford’s human element scores, as they are likely to get some serious support from voters who are looking to replace the Sooners and Badgers on their ballots. The Cardinal could see a rush of support. The three could be very closely packed when the rankings are released tomorrow.

The Spartans are sure to get a nice bump from the voters and computers, capitalizing on all of the support lost by the Sooners and Badgers.

The key, of course, will be how exactly the voters reward the Spartans and punish the Sooners and Badgers. The Badgers are sure to be given a little more leeway, as they lost on the road to a ranked opponent, as compared to the Sooners, who lost at home to an unranked Texas Tech.

Now, the questions begin. Does the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game lose its significance as a de facto national semifinal? Will Oklahoma be able to make up any ground without a Big 12 Championship Game available any more? Who is now in position to grab the spots in the title game? Could we have a SEC rematch in the BCS National Championship Game?

It’ll be a confusing few weeks, and we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of all of the computers, human polls and everything in between.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Two (October 23rd)

Rank Team
1 LSU Tigers
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Oklahoma State Cowboys
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Clemson Tigers
6 Boise State Broncos
7 Arkansas Razorbacks
8 Oregon Ducks
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 Kansas State Wildcats
11 Michigan State Spartans
12 Wisconsin Badgers

Projected BCS Rankings: Auburn Rewarded Heartily in Second BCS Standings

Update: The season’s second BCS standings have been released. Take a look HERE. To see the most recent projections, head over HERE.

Three straight Saturdays, three straight chaotic days.

With a newly crowned BCS No. 1 Oklahoma taking on Missouri in primetime, the curse of No. 1 continued as Oklahoma followed Alabama and Ohio State on the path of the nation’s top teams being upset on a national stage.

Oklahoma had been rewarded for its tough early-season schedule with the BCS’s top spot when the first rankings were released last weekend, but seemingly as soon as the Sooners had been nominated for that top spot, they lost it again with the shocking loss to Missouri.

The prime time meeting in Columbia was the icing on the cake of a day that featured huge match ups from around the country that will have a big effect on tomorrow’s BCS standings.

Unbeaten Auburn, faced with a real test against equally blemish-free LSU, used a great performance from Cam Newton to become the SEC’s only undefeated squad and take control of the SEC title race.

Oregon — who was second in the first BCS rankings last weekend — looked like the No. 1 team the human polls believe them to be, and manhandled UCLA on Thursday night 60-13.

Other unbeatens — Michigan State, TCU and Utah — had conference tests to pass, and did so, with varying degrees of ease, but still kept their undefeated seasons intact.

So what does that mean for the BCS standings?

Well, when Oklahoma took the top spot in the inaugural BCS rankings last weekend, it surprised some, but was exactly what the six BCS computers ordered, as they gave tons of love to the Sooners as their favorite team.

Now that the Sooners have fallen, who will be there to eat up that computer love?

Boise State and Oregon already had the love they wanted from the human element, but saw their computer rankings sorely affect their BCS average when the rankings were released. Boise State (7th best computer average) and Oregon (8th) had poor computer showings, but should see those numbers improve.

LSU had the second best computer showing last week, but they lost as well.

The answer is Auburn. The Tigers came into the weekend with a .900 computer average, and will see the combination of Oklahoma’s loss and their victory over the No. 2 computer team, LSU make that computer ranking shine.

Oregon and Boise State will likely be more convincing No. 1 and No. 2 in the human elements, but yet again, their spots in the BCS will be put in jeopardy by the likely No. 3 team Auburn’s new-found computer love.

The question will be how much of LSU’s .980 computer average Auburn can make up. And if the Tigers do jump to No. 3 in the human polls, by what margin will they be behind Oregon and Boise State?

Boise State might hurt the most from their bye week. Oregon took UCLA to town. Auburn beat LSU, an undefeated SEC team. Which do you think the pollsters are going to reward most highly?

Boise State will likely not get that No. 1 spot. In fact, they’ll likely again see themselves at No. 3 come Sunday after their bye week. So between Oregon’s human poll love and Auburn’s computer love, which will persevere?

Oregon needs help. Tons of it. Collecting all of the first-place votes from the voters won’t be enough (they will not do that).

Their computer average was a measly .710 last week. Even at .800 that may not be enough to hold off the charge from Auburn (they could do that).

Here’s what it might come down to: Auburn’s two major victories, Arkansas and South Carolina, both also won on Saturday. Oregon’s two major victories came over Arizona State and Stanford. ASU lost to California. Stanford beat Washington State.

Which looks better? That’s right, Auburn.

Tomorrow’s No. 1 will likely be the Auburn Tigers. The margin will be paper-thin. .0100 may not even separate the two.

But Auburn is going to miraculously pull this off. Their computer average will be in the .960-.970 range. And with just .910 shares from both polls (third place), they’ll have enough to top the Ducks.

So with all of that in mind, here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:15 ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Two (October 24th)

Rank Team
1 Auburn Tigers
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Boise State Broncos
4 TCU Horned Frogs
5 Missouri Tigers
6 Michigan State Spartans
7 Alabama Crimson Tide
8 Oklahoma Sooners
9 Utah Utes
10 Ohio State Buckeyes
11 LSU Tigers
12 Wisconsin Badgers