Simulated BCS Rankings Week Seven: Ohio St., Florida St. Land Comfortably In Top 5 With BCS Looming

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The BCS rankings are looming. Just one week until we enter the final phase of the college football season. And, as if seemingly on queue, the upsets came in droves this weekend.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Florida State Seminoles
Scroll down for more

Stanford, Oklahoma, Georgia and Michigan suffered losses at inopportune times, and the simulated BCS rankings reflect the sea change. Sure, Alabama, Oregon and Clemson land in familiar spots, but after that, things get different fast. How are we figuring this out?

  • We’re using the normal method for the Coaches’ and Harris polls, taking vote share, which is explained on our BCS Formula page.
  • We’re also using all available BCS versions of the BCS component computers, which this week includes: Colley’s Matrix, Massey’s BCS, Sagarin, Anderson & Hester and Billingsley. However, we will not remove any of the rankings, as BCS usually does, as to get a better overall sense of where we stand. No need to eliminate when we don’t have the complete picture to begin with. Five computers used means a total possible score of 125 in the component.
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with about 94% accuracy

With just a week before we get a real version of the BCS on the night of Oct. 20, we have a simulated version that’s nearly 100% accurate, and interesting things have begun to happen.

Ohio State and Florida State’s steady climb has finally begun to pay off, as the Buckeyes and Seminoles land at No. 4 and No. 5 respectively. Finally, after weeks of languishing well below their full BCS potential because of weak computers and a bevy of undefeated teams to contend with, the Buckeyes and Seminoles are primed for possible runs at a title game bid.

The next group of contenders is led by teams now well within striking distance if things can fall their way. One-loss No. 6 LSU, No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 10 South Carolina, plus undefeated No. 8 UCLA and No. 9 Louisville fill out the rest of the top 10.

Undefeated Missouri, the darling of the computers with the third-highest overall computer aggregate, lands at No. 13, while new Big 12 frontrunner Baylor lands at No. 11.

Here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the seventh week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — October 14

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9842
2 Oregon Ducks .9387
3 Clemson Tigers .8781
4 Ohio State Buckeyes .8373
5 Florida State Seminoles .8345
6 LSU Tigers .7428
7 Texas A&M Aggies .6920
8 UCLA Bruins .6726
9 Louisville Cardinals .6252
10 South Carolina Gamecocks .5766
11 Baylor Bears .5721
12 Stanford Cardinal .5716
13 Missouri Tigers .5695
14 Miami Hurricanes .5479
15 Georgia Bulldogs .4554
16 Texas Tech Red Raiders .3594

Simulated BCS Rankings Week Six: Clemson, Stanford Continue to Battle

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Though we’re still two weeks removed from the first official BCS rankings of the season, with so many teams running through the early part of their schedules without a bump, it seems like we’re bound to be in for some real intrigue.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Ohio State Buckeyes
Scroll down for more

The kind of back-and-forth in the rankings that we’ve come to expect manifests itself this week with the ongoing battle between Clemson and Stanford, two teams that have traded the No. 3 spot in our simulated BCS rankings since the start of the season. How are we figuring these out?

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’ve begun to use all available BCS versions of the BCS component computers, this week that includes: Colley’s Matrix, Massey’s BCS, Sagarin, Anderson & Hester and Billingsley. However, we will not remove any of the rankings, as BCS usually does, as to get a better overall sense of where we stand. No need to eliminate when we don’t have the complete picture to begin with. Five computers used means a total possible score of 125 in the component.
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with about 61% accuracy

This week, despite Stanford’s bounding gains in the computer rankings, it’s Clemson that takes the No. 3 spot. That’s what happens when the two-thirds of the formula based on the voting polls favors the Tigers. That margin, however, is small. To the point where no more than a handful of votes in either the Coaches’ or AP polls could have swung the tides in Stanford’s favor.

So with the Tigers and Cardinal set in their 3-4 tandem, we instead turn our attention to Ohio State and Florida State, two teams that saw wide-spread support from the voters in the early going, but struggled to find that computer love every BCS contender needs.

All that has changed in the last few days, as victories over Northwestern and Maryland, respectively, have given the duo new life in the computers. The Buckeyes averaged a 8.6 ranking while Florida State pulled in an average of 4.6 across the five computer rankings.

Both are stronger than they had been in the early goings of these simulations, positive steps for two teams possibly gearing up for a fight to the finish with a bevy of other undefeated squads.

But enough talk — here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the sixth week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — October 6

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9789
2 Oregon Ducks .8893
3 Clemson Tigers .8736
4 Stanford Cardinal .8627
5 Ohio State Buckeyes .8186
6 Florida State Seminoles .7982
7 Georgia Bulldogs .7466
8 Oklahoma Sooners .6560
9 LSU Tigers .6256
10 Louisville Cardinals .5699
11 UCLA Bruins .5664
12 Texas A&M Aggies .5617
13 Miami Hurricanes .5100
14 South Carolina Gamecocks .4769
15 Baylor Bears .4668
16 Michigan Wolverines .3827

Simulated BCS Rankings Week Five: Ohio State Up To No. 5, Buckeyes Here To Stay?

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As the real BCS rankings get closer, focus paid to one marquee game can have big ripple effects across the country if things turn out one way or another.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Stanford Cardinal
4 Clemson Tigers
5 Ohio State Buckeyes
Scroll down for more

This weekend, that game was LSU-Georgia, and the Bulldogs’ second victory over a top-10 team before September is even out (especially after losing to a top-10 team to start the year) was felt in all over the BCS component rankings this week.

Georgia’s leap into the top echelon of the simulated BCS rankings is significant, however, it’s Ohio State’s step in the top five that should turn heads.

How did we figure these out?

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’ve begun to use all available BCS versions of the BCS component computers, this week that includes: Colley’s Matrix, Massey’s BCS, Sagarin and Billingsley
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with about 56% accuracy

Ohio State, well back of the pack in recent weeks despite its support in the polls, leaps to No. 5 this time on the strength of teams moving out of their way and an improved showing in the computers. LSU’s loss helped to make the Buckeyes’ entrance into the top five possible, while also bolstering the rankings of the teams that occupied similar space last week. The Buckeyes just clear No. 6 Georgia (.0066 behind) and No. 7 Florida State (.0234 behind).

Stanford is another clear beneficiary, picking up much of LSU’s support and using another easy Pac-12 victory to gain some steam and move up to No. 3, just hopping over No. 4 Clemson.

The Bulldogs land at No. 6, as they rebound on the strength of the country’s most difficult schedule. Oklahoma also lands some unexpected gained support at No. 8, likely as a result of Oklahoma State’s loss that placed the Sooners as the clear favorites in the Big 12.

Here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the fifth week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — September 29

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9914
2 Oregon Ducks .9107
3 Stanford Cardinal .8594
4 Clemson Tigers .8550
5 Ohio State Buckeyes .7604
6 Georgia Bulldogs .7538
7 Florida State Seminoles .7370
8 Oklahoma Sooners .6569
9 Texas A&M Aggies .6154
10 LSU Tigers .6078
11 Louisville Cardinals .6058
12 UCLA Bruins .5366
13 South Carolina Gamecocks .5021
14 Washington Huskies .4983
15 Northwestern Wildcats .3756
16 Miami Hurricanes .3737

Simulated BCS Rankings Week Four: LSU Jumps Into The Fray

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After a weekend somewhat lacking in true tests for the nation’s best, not much changed around the country in terms of how voters saw teams lining up for possible title bids.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 LSU Tigers
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

But lurking underneath was a shift in a few key areas that allow the newest set of simulated BCS rankings to swap around a few key players, and set us up for an interesting stretch of weeks before the final BCS frame begins.

The biggest move is that of LSU’s which leaps from No. 6 to No. 4 this week, still trailing the top three from last week — Alabama, Oregon and Clemson.

How did we figure these out?

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’ve begun to use all available BCS versions of the BCS component computers, this week that includes: Colley’s Matrix, Massey’s BCS, Sagarin and Billingsley
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with 56% accuracy

As the season has progressed the result is a better connected set of teams. There are ways to compare early games. That can help voters in the AP and Coaches’ polls, but really, those extra games help the computers make sense of a limited amount of data.

This increase in sample size has given LSU a strong early computer edge, as the Tigers collect the third-best computer ranking aggregate this week, behind only the Tide and Ducks.

On the opposite side of that discussion rests a team like Ohio State, still struggling mightily with its computer support and paying for it in these simulations, as the Buckeyes land at No. 7. But it’s still early, much can change.

For now, it seems as if another contender has entered the fray in LSU and one that would be especially dangerous when they meet Alabama in early November.

For now, however, here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the fourth week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — September 23

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9851
2 Oregon Ducks .9367
3 Clemson Tigers .8442
4 LSU Tigers .7957
5 Stanford Cardinal .7910
6 Florida State Seminoles .7442
7 Ohio State Buckeyes .6909
8 Georgia Bulldogs .6047
9 Louisville Cardinals .5969
10 Oklahoma State Cowboys .5808
11 Texas A&M Aggies .5492
12 Oklahoma Sooners .5187
13 UCLA Bruins .5145
14 South Carolina Gamecocks .4647
15 Washington Huskies .3761
16 Miami Hurricanes .3578

Simulated BCS Rankings Week Three: Ohio State Enters Top Five, Florida State Climbing

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Like in years past, it takes a certain kind of result to truly convince everyone that the top preseason teams are truly worth of the spot. In recent years, those teams have often included Alabama and Oregon, and like in these past couple of years, the Crimson Tide and Ducks passed that early test.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Ohio State Buckeyes
Scroll down for more

The respective victories over Texas A&M and Tennessee in week three staked Alabama and Oregon to a large lead in the early simulations of the BCS rankings. In fact, the distance between Alabama and Oregon, which is still around a sizable .04, is less than a third of the gap between Oregon and No. 3 Clemson.

How did we figure these simulated BCS rankings out? We made the following changes to the BCS formula, to account for the pieces we have and the pieces we’re missing:

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’re ONLY using the available, reasonably well-connected and up-to-date BCS computers, which at this point is just Massey’s non-BCS, Sagarin’s and Billingsley’s rankings. You’ll notice that at this point, “well-connected” means computer systems with a preseason bias and component. As the season progresses we can eliminate those rankings which hold such a bias as the teams become well-connected in 2013 alone.
  • Available computers, but not included: Massey’s BCS and Colley’s Matrix.
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with 50% accuracy

You might have noticed that Stanford and Clemson flip-flop again this week, thought their differences are small when you look at the bound either team would have to make an impact on the top two squads in the country.

Weeks of lingering in the lower regions of the computer rankings continues for Ohio State, but the Buckeyes are finally able to leap into the top five at No. 5 — up one spot — despite it’s much higher viewing in the polls.

LSU and Florida State also improve their lots, as LSU is up one spot and Florida State up two as we reach the halfway point in the first month of the season. Plenty of football to be played before the first BCS standings, but it’s a fun exercise…

Here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the third week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — September 16

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9951
2 Oregon Ducks .9561
3 Clemson Tigers .8167
4 Stanford Cardinal .7939
5 Ohio State Buckeyes .7562
6 LSU Tigers .7464
7 Florida State Seminoles .7278
8 Georgia Bulldogs .7200
9 Texas A&M Aggies .6890
10 Oklahoma State Cowboys .5837
11 Louisville Cardinals .5830
12 South Carolina Gamecocks .5746
13 Oklahoma Sooners .5653
14 UCLA Bruins .4874
15 Michigan Wolverines .3713
16 Miami Hurricanes .3249

Simulated BCS Rankings Week Two: Stanford Hops To No. 3, Michigan Up To No. 12

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While No. 1 Alabama rested at home in the second weekend of the 2013 season, things in the Crimson Tide’s own conference and around the country got a bit of a rattling.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Stanford Cardinal
4 Clemson Tigers
5 Texas A&M Aggies
Scroll down for more

Georgia, which dropped a tough game to Clemson last weekend, rebounded with a victory over top-10 South Carolina, reviving their BCS strength and giving Clemson’s win all the more luster.

And yet, the Tigers fall a spot in the BCS, landing just behind No. 3 Stanford in this week’s simulated BCS rankings after the Cardinal made their season debut Saturday.

How did we figure these out? We made the following changes to the BCS formula, to account for the pieces we have and the pieces we’re missing:

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’re ONLY using the available, reasonably well-connected and up-to-date BCS computers, which at this point is just Massey’s non-BCS, Sagarin’s and Billingsley’s rankings. As the various computers are released before the start of the season, we’ll add them here and update the standings.
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with 50% accuracy

South Carolina’s loss actually turned out to help along teams unconnected with the early results. Teams like Stanford, Texas A&M and even Oregon picked up some of the points the Gamecocks vacated, as their BCS stock was strengthened while Clemson took a slight hit.

The computers also helped Stanford into the third position, as Billingsley named Stanford its No. 1 team this week, while Sagarin left Clemson out of the top handful of teams all together.

Louisville and Ohio State, which were keyed here early as teams lacking in computer faith, got a little boost this week, but still need plenty of help from their upcoming schedule to invigorate their respect in the mathematical element. The numbers, at least now, are not in the Buckeyes’ and Cardinals’ favor, but that could change as we move forward.

Elsewhere, Michigan, Northwestern and Baylor secure spots in the top 16 after strong weekend victories

Here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the second week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — September 9

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9887
2 Oregon Ducks .9167
3 Stanford Cardinal .8745
4 Clemson Tigers .7949
5 Texas A&M Aggies .7722
6 Ohio State Buckeyes .7311
7 LSU Tigers .7261
8 Georgia Bulldogs .7253
9 Florida State Seminoles .6572
10 Louisville Cardinals .6111
11 South Carolina Gamecocks .5715
12 Michigan Wolverines .5609
13 Oklahoma State Cowboys .5582
14 Oklahoma Sooners .5443
15 Northwestern Wildcats .2999
16 Baylor Bears .2983

Simulated BCS Rankings Week One: Clemson Up To No. 3, Alabama Already Pulling Away

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Funny what one big win can do for your BCS hopes and dreams. No team can recognize that as much as Clemson can after the first week of the last BCS season, after a huge home win over Georgia gave the Tigers a boost to No. 3 in this week’s simulated BCS rankings.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 South Carolina Gamecocks
Scroll down for more

You’re familiar already with the top two teams, No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Oregon, who have become staples at the top of all kinds of BCS standings. But Clemson, though resurgent, has staked an early claim to the team to watch as the season wears on.

How did we get there? We’ve made the following changes to the BCS formula, to account for the pieces we have and the pieces we’re missing:

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’re ONLY using the available and up-to-date BCS computers, which at this point is just Massey’s non-BCS, Sagarin’s and Billingsley’s rankings. As the various computers are released before the start of the season, we’ll add them here and update the standings.
  • In total, we’ll say with 44.4% accuracy that this is a good estimation of the BCS rankings

So it’s Clemson that makes the big leap, taking the No. 3 spot away from the same Bulldogs they beat on Saturday night. Behind them land the Pac-12’s other hope for BCS glory, Stanford, and the SEC’s second-best hope so far, South Carolina.

Ohio State, although landing comfortably in the top-three of both human element polls, suffers dearly from the three available computers, pulling in an average ranking of 13.6 despite their support across the board in the human element. Louisville also suffers terrible from the computers, not landing in the top-25 in two of the three available rankings.

Also of note is the strength of Alabama’s lead this early in the year. With one game gone, the Crimson Tide have a shockingly large lead of more than .1000, a big gulf for any team to cross.

But enough talk, explore our BCS Know How simulated preseason standings for yourself!

Here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the first week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — September 3

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9983
2 Oregon Ducks .8865
3 Clemson Tigers .8262
4 Stanford Cardinal .8178
5 South Carolina Gamecocks .7870
6 Ohio State Buckeyes .7705
7 Texas A&M Aggies .7662
8 LSU Tigers .6816
9 Florida Gators .6172
10 Florida State Seminoles .6152
11 Georgia Bulldogs .6091
12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .5733
13 Oklahoma State Cowboys .5627
14 Louisville Cardinals .5267
15 Oklahoma Sooners .4881
16 Texas Longhorns .3806

2013 AQ Conference Profiles: American Athletic Conference

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BCS Know How will take you through the six automatic-qualifying BCS conferences in preparation for the 2013 season. Short and sweet previews begin with the newly renamed and reorganized American Athletic Conference. Scroll down to see our profiles of the other conferences.

Conference: American Athletic Conference (AAC)

Active Since: 1979 (as the original Big East)

Current Member Schools: Cincinnati Bearcats, Connecticut Huskies, Houston Cougars, Louisville Cardinals, Memphis Tigers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, SMU Mustangs, South Florida Bulls, Temple Owls, UCF Knights (10)

2013 Bowl Affiliations and Tie-Ins: BCS Bowl (At-large), Russell Athletic Bowl, Belk Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, BBVA Compass Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl (7)

2012 Results:
(As the Big East)
Conference Champion — Louisville Cardinals (11-2, 5-2)
Conference Runners-up — Cincinnati Bearcats (10-3, 5-2), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-4, 5-2), Syracuse Orange (8-5, 5-2)
BCS Bowl Results: 2013 Sugar Bowl: Louisville 33 vs. Florida 23
Overall Bowl Record: 3-2

Heisman Hopefuls: Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater, Connecticut RB Lyle McCombs, Rutgers WR Brandon Coleman

BCS Know How’s 2013 Predictions:
Conference Champion — Louisville Cardinals
Conference Runner-up — Rutgers Scarlet Knights
BCS Bids — Louisville — Fiesta Bowl
Heisman Finalists: None

Projected 2011 BCS Bowls – October 31st

[Editor’s note: This projection is from October 31st, 2010. To see more recent projections, scroll to the bottom of the post for weekly updates to the projected BCS bowls.]

Two more undefeateds fall on the weekend, but its really the victories by the nation’s best teams that define this set of BCS bowl projections.

Oregon and Auburn do their best to make a national title case against strong conference foes.

For the Big East and ACC, however, its a whole other matter.

BCS National Championship Game: Auburn Tigers (BCS No. 1) vs. Oregon Ducks (BCS No. 2)

Comment: Auburn’s dominant performance against a dangerous Ole Miss team on the road only reinforced the idea that the Tigers could easily run the table the rest of the way in the SEC regular season, and then in the SEC Championship Game. Do that, and the Auburn Tigers will be playing for the BCS title.

Same goes for Oregon, as handily defeated USC to continue their undefeated season. If the Ducks can complete an undefeated season of their own, it’s an easy road to Glendale.

Rose Bowl: Boise State Broncos (At-large selection) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten Champion)

Comment: Wisconsin holds that key head-to-head victory over Ohio State, which could easily allow them to capture the Big Ten crown if they win the rest of their games and make their way to the Rose Bowl.

With Auburn and Oregon cruising, it looks less likely that the Boise State Broncos will get that shot at the title that they so desperately want. If the Rose Bowl loses either a Big Ten or Pac-10 team to the national title game, they are forced to choose the automatically qualifying Boise State Broncos.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners (Big 12 Champion) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (Big East Champion)

Comment: Oklahoma took a tumble to Missouri last weekend, who in turn looked nothing like the team that topped the Sooners when they lost to Nebraska. So it again looks like although they have that loss to their record, the Sooners are Big 12 favorites once again.

With a lot of help needed to get to the BCS title game, a Fiesta Bowl bid is likely for the Sooners.

The Fiesta Bowl has last pick in the second round of team selection this year, and with the Big East champion likely to have at least three losses, they will likely fall unpicked to the Fiesta Bowl, which will force them to choose our projected Big East champs, Pittsburgh.

Orange Bowl: TCU Horned Frogs (At-large selection) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC Champion)

Comment: TCU, although not the darling non-AQ team of the nation, will likely have a very attractive resume if they can run the table the rest of the way. Victories over Air Force, Oregon State and Utah would be very attractive to the Orange Bowl, who has an at-large space to fill.

With Florida State’s loss on Thursday night, Virginia Tech — loss to JMU and all — is now the run-away favorite for the ACC’s conference title and its BCS bid. The Hokies finally look like the team they were supposed to be at the beginning of the season.

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes (At-large selection) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (At-large selection)

Comment: Ohio State could end up on the short end of many of the Big Ten tiebreakers, but even if they do, the Buckeyes would be a very attractive at-large team for a BCS bowl.

Losing Auburn to the national title game, the Sugar Bowl would be inclined to replace their SEC tie with another SEC team. A two-loss Alabama team would be a pretty nice choice.

It is of course possible that Alabama wins the upcoming Iron Bowl, and in that case, you can very easily switch the team’s current positions and put the Tide in the BCS title game.

Projected 2011 BCS Bowls – October 24th

[Editor’s note: This projection is from October 24th, 2010. To see more recent projections, scroll to the bottom of the post for weekly updates to the projected BCS bowls.]

Three weekends, three weekends of BCS chaos.

Unreal if you ask me. What does it do to the projected BCS bowls?

The unthinkable.

BCS National Championship Game: Oregon Ducks (BCS No. 1) vs. Boise State Broncos (BCS No. 2)

Comment: Hold on to your hats. Is this 2007 all over again?

If it is, the top teams in the top conferences are in trouble. Is Boise State set to allow the non-AQ conferences to break into the BCS Championship Game for the first time?

With any loss by Auburn, Boise State will be in line to finally make their way to the BCS title game, and that’s exactly what we’re projecting.

Oregon could easily run the table, but with the recent string of upsets, maybe they aren’t so safe.

Rose Bowl: Stanford Cardinal (At-large selection) vs. Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten Champion)

Comment: With Boise State no longer clogging this selection sheet, Stanford gets the chance to go to a BCS bowl game.

If Boise is selected to the national title game, the Rose Bowl is no longer required to make the automatically qualifying non-AQ school their selection. With that in mind, the Rose Bowl will likely try to make their traditional selection of a Pac-10 vs. Big Ten meeting. And with Oregon gone to the title game, Stanford is an attractive at-large selection.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners (Big 12 Champion) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (At-large selection)

Comment: With their loss, the Sooners are out of the national title picture (for now) but still squarely in the Big 12 title picture. If they do get a Big 12 championship without a BCS title game bid, the Fiesta Bowl will select them as their contract stipulates.

TCU offers the Fiesta Bowl a chance to pair a non-AQ with Oklahoma — a la Boise State — and we’ll project they do just that.

Orange Bowl: West Virginia Mountaineers (Big East Champion) vs. Florida State Seminoles (ACC Champion)

Comment: West Virginia certainly didn’t look like a Big East champion on Saturday when they lost a shocker to Syracuse. However, the Big East winner could very easily have three or four conference losses. In essence, we won’t really know the shape of the Big East conference race until the end of the season.

There’s no reason at this moment to think the Mountaineers wont come right back and win the Big East’s BCS bid.

Florida State had the weekend off and will play on Thursday night against NC State, and for now, look to still be ACC favorites, however watch out for Virginia Tech, they’re on that comeback trail.

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes (At-large selection) vs. Auburn Tigers (SEC Champion)

Comment: Many might be tempted to say that Auburn has a clear path to the BCS national title game with their victory over LSU on Saturday. However in control of their own destiny they might be, the nature of the SEC this year seems to be one of knocking each other off the pedestal.

So lets put the Tigers in the Sugar Bowl, still as SEC champions, but with a loss to their record, which keeps them just out of the BCS title game.

Ohio State cannot win the Big Ten without losses from both Wisconsin and Michigan State, but will likely be a more attractive at-large selection candidate than any other team for the Sugar Bowl when their pick comes around.