Projected BCS Standings: FSU, Oregon Already Jockeying For No. 2 In First BCS Standings of 2013

BCSWeek1

What is it that you don’t like about the BCS? The time to complain is kind of running out … this week marks the beginning of the end for the system, the era and the formula as we know it.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

And wouldn’t you know it, on our very first weekend of our very last BCS year, we’re going to get some drama right off the bat. There’s no doubt what victory this weekend was the most impressive, that’s Florida State with a big win over previous No. 3 Clemson.

And yet, we have last week’s and this young season’s No. 2, Oregon, as dominating as ever, still undefeated and still putting up huge performances week after week. So which will be No. 2 when the BCS is finally released tomorrow?

Well, one of the things people have enjoyed complaining about most in this era of the BCS is voter laziness. And though tomorrow will likely show a nice push toward supporting Florida State’s superb record thus far, we’re projecting that it will be Oregon at No. 2 when the BCS is released on the strength of the voter support that remains in the Ducks’ camp. Even with the expected bump in computer poll support, Florida State might still end up just short of Oregon.

That might quell some of the traditional anger that could be associated with a shock like Florida State at No. 2 after barely cracking the top five at all this year. But even if Florida State does make up the minuscule ground they’re projected to still be lacking against Oregon (currently less than .0030 points) — the future is actually brighter in Oregon’s corner. This is a conversation will hold some water for much of the rest of the season if the teams keep reeling off wins.

Elsewhere, expect surprise powers Baylor, Missouri and Miami to be dancing inside the top 12 this week, with Baylor and Missouri taking cracks at the top five spots, where as they were outside that potential territory just a week ago. Teams like UCLA, LSU, Clemson, Louisville, South Carolina and Texas A&M will suffer for poorly timed losses on this first BCS weekend of 2013, though bounce backs are more than possible for most of those teams, including for Stanford, which dispatched of UCLA.

We’re in it for final time this year. It’s going to get even more interesting than this, and we’re going to be covering it all. Strap if for one hell of a last ride.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 20)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
6 Baylor Bears
7 Stanford Cardinal
8 Clemson Tigers
9 Miami Hurricanes
10 LSU Tigers
11 UCLA Bruins
12 Texas A&M Aggies
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Projected BCS Standings: Quiet Across The Land As Notre Dame and Alabama Lead The Final BCS Rankings of 2012

The opportunity for chaos always stirs college football fans. And it looked like we were in store for some this year.

Projected Final BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Florida Gators
4 Georgia Bulldogs
5 Oregon Ducks
Scroll down for more

Six top-flight SEC teams emerged early. Oregon, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Louisville and Florida State looked every bit the flag bearer for their conferences. Chaos was certainly coming.

Then it arrived in November in the form of unbeaten Alabama, Oregon and Kansas State suffering surprising first losses. But then all was quiet.

And when all was said and done in the 2012 college football season, it was pretty clear. Notre Dame, on the strength on an undefeated season, and Alabama, winners of the battle-testing SEC, will finish 1-2 in the final BCS standings and meet for the BCS title at the end of the expansive bowl season.

Championship weekend served as a clarifying moment for many of the thing college football fans thought we knew, but couldn’t guarantee. Alabama, Florida State, Stanford, Louisville, Wisconsin and Kansas State secured BCS bids in traditional fashion.

Florida, tomorrow’s No. 3 team will claim a bid as the top-ranked member of a AQ conference to not actually win that conference. Oregon, set to land at No. 5 with one overtime loss to Rose Bowl-bound Stanford, will almost certainly be snatched up by a BCS bowl right away. That’s nine.

Then that 10th and final bid.

Coming into the weekend it was all about the non-AQ and the chance at a BCS buster. But the hope will stop here. Not enough happened for the MAC champion Northern Illinois or MWC champion Boise State to make a BCS bowl bid. And so, for a second straight year, we will forgo the non-AQ storyline taker and have a set of BCS bowls with 10 AQ conference members.

The best shot the non-AQs had at a BCS bowl was Northern Illinois. And the Huskies will just miss out at No. 17. That’s the long and short of it.

We’ll be here to take you through the entire process tomorrow — human polls, computer rankings, bowl pairings and BCS rankings  Follow along @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. We’ll put up a chat room for questions and general discussion, too.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the final BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Eight (December 2nd)

Rank Team
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Florida Gators
4 Georgia Bulldogs
5 Oregon Ducks
6 Kansas State Wildcats
7 Stanford Cardinal
8 LSU Tigers
9 Texas A&M Aggies
10 Oklahoma Sooners
11 South Carolina Gamecocks
12 Florida State Seminoles

Projected BCS Standings: Stanford, Florida Big Winners While Notre Dame To Lead Seventh BCS Rankings of 2012

After a weekend of classic BCS mid-November chaos, the tame holiday weekend we just saw might have left some wanting for more chaos.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Florida Gators
4 Georgia Bulldogs
5 Oregon Ducks
Scroll down for more

And although nothing we took in this weekend came anywhere close to providing the upheaval and strange combinations that losses from the top two teams in the BCS can provide, we certainly were able to answer some questions.

That starts at the top, of course, as Notre Dame will bow at the top of the BCS standings both this week and next, and will be on its way to a national title game.

That’s the luxury of ending your season a weekend early, and ending it with a nationally televised win over your traditional rival, in this case USC. After that it gets a bit funny, but nothing we can’t explain.

Alabama again will occupy the No. 2 spot in tomorrow’s BCS rankings, awaiting its SEC title showdown with Georgia, which will slip one spot this weekend to No. 4. Why? Well, the Bulldogs’ win over a ACC title game-bound Georgia Tech squad will not prove the impact win they might want the weekend before the SEC title game.

Florida will instead occupy that spot on the strength of the best out-of-conference victory of the weekend, and will slide into No. 3. But any fret that result may cause either Alabama or Georgia fans hoping the two teams are playing in a de facto national semifinal should be short-lived.

Whichever team wins the SEC will play the Fighting Irish in the BCS title game. You can be sure of it.

After that, things will look pretty familiar. Stanford’s win over UCLA — setting up a rematch less than a week from now for the Pac-12 title — will prove more of a mover of votes that you might expect, and give the Cardinal a push past LSU for the No. 7 spot.

Oklahoma and Nebraska will slide back into the top 12 after losses from Clemson and the Seminoles open up the way.

But that’s the simple stuff. The things to keep an eye on? The non-AQ chase. With Boise State, Northern Illinois and Kent State angling for a spot in a BCS bowl, the possibility remains that any of the three could steal a BCS bid away from an AQ conference school with a finish in the top 16.

Expect all three to land outside the top 16 this weekend. Next weekend, however, the BCS might just sneak in its fourth non-AQ team in five seasons.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Seven (November 25th)

Rank Team
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Florida Gators
4 Georgia Bulldogs
5 Oregon Ducks
6 Kansas State Wildcats
7 Stanford Cardinal
8 LSU Tigers
9 Texas A&M Aggies
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Oklahoma Sooners
12 Nebraska Cornhuskers

Projected BCS Standings: Notre Dame Rises Above Chaos To No. 1 In Sixth BCS Rankings of 2012

Two weekends and three major upsets — November BCS chaos has struck again in 2012. Who is left standing?

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Georgia Bulldogs
4 Florida Gators
5 Kansas State Wildcats
Scroll down for more

This mid-November weekend it was BCS No. 1 Kansas State and No. 2 Oregon that took the fall, leaving us anticipating a set of BCS rankings that will not resemble anything we’ve seen to this point.

When we finally do get these sixth BCS rankings, it will be the Notre Dame Fighting Irish that paces the rest of the FBS world. Yes, the 11-0 Irish will stake a claim to a top ranking in the BCS with just one test remaining, that being against USC next weekend.

Win, and the Irish can make their first appearance in a national championship game in the BCS era. That’s the luxury of the BCS’s top spot, and the Irish will be solidly there.

But lo and behold, right back in the conversation and again controlling their own destiny for a BCS title game berth will be tomorrow’s No. 2, Alabama. The Tide fell just to No. 4 after their shocking loss to Texas A&M last weekend, and despite a lopsided victory over an FCS team, the Tide will prosper greatly because of what happened around them.

The Tide had started an unprecedented grouping of six SEC teams in a row in spots four through nine in last week’s BCS rankings. This weekend, the group will spread out a bit, but not before two SEC squads — the Georgia Bulldogs and Florida Gators — take the No. 3 and No. 4 spots in the BCS rankings tomorrow.

Kansas State will interrupt the SEC party at No. 5, keeping a strong computer ranking after falling to a respectable Baylor squad. Oregon lands at the same general spot, given its loss to previously BCS No. 13 Stanford.

The SEC grabs two more spots in the top eight, with LSU and Texas A&M, before Stanford and Florida State round out the top 10. South Carolina and Oklahoma complete the top 12.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Six (November 18th)

Rank Team
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Georgia Bulldogs
4 Florida Gators
5 Kansas State Wildcats
6 Oregon Ducks
7 LSU Tigers
8 Texas A&M Aggies
9 Stanford Cardinal
10 Florida State Seminoles
11 South Carolina Gamecocks
12 Oklahoma Sooners

Projected BCS Standings: Kansas State to Claim Top Spot in Fifth BCS Rankings of 2012

While you can’t erase six years of dominance in one weekend, it’s certainly a shock to the system.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Kansas State Wildcats
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Alabama Crimson Tide
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

Yes, for the first time in more than two years, no SEC team will occupy one of the top two spots in tomorrow’s BCS rankings, as Kansas State and Oregon will claim those distinctions tomorrow.

That’s just what Alabama’s loss to Texas A&M as the season enters its home stretch will do, as a shakeup is in store for the BCS.

But perhaps more importantly, the shift in the BCS tide could mean a non-SEC BCS champion, breaking the conference’s dominating six-year run at claiming the BCS’s crown. Year after year the SEC was able to produce one contender from the heap that the conference seemed to create, but this year, Texas A&M might have delivered the final blow in a series of knockouts traded inside the conference, one that would spell the end of the streak.

Alabama will land just behind the three remaining undefeated eligible squads tomorrow, and just ahead of once-beaten Georgia. Given the lack of SEC strength in the top two spots, spots four through nine will be all SEC, all the time. Alabama and Georgia lead a contingent of SEC squads that is seemingly endless. But despite the dominance in sheer numbers, that top spot might remain elusive the rest of the way home.

Florida State, still struggling with poor computer showings, lands at No. 10, with the surprising Clemson and the steady Oklahoma rounding out the top 12.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Five (November 11th)

Rank Team
1 Kansas State Wildcats
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Alabama Crimson Tide
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 Florida Gators
7 LSU Tigers
8 Texas A&M Aggies
9 South Carolina Gamecocks
10 Florida State Seminoles
11 Oklahoma Sooners
12 Clemson Tigers

Projected BCS Standings: Oregon Will Grab No. 3 Spot in Fourth BCS Rankings of 2012

It feels like it’s about time. After three weeks of watching teams pass it by, Oregon will finally return the favor — and will pass Notre Dame for the No. 3 spot in tomorrow’s BCS standings.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

A victim of poor computer rankings as a result of somewhat lacking strength of schedule, a victory over USC should do the trick for Oregon, giving the Ducks the boost they need in all three components to pass Notre Dame tomorrow.

Just like in weeks past, however, Oregon will continue to trail No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Kansas State, which will both retain their spots occupied last weekend. But watch carefully — the distance between Oregon and Kansas State will begin to shrink tomorrow. How much it shrinks will be vitally important to any hope the Ducks have of catching the Wildcats for that elusive to this point No. 2 spot.

After Notre Dame’s tense, close victory over Pittsburgh the Fighting Irish will fall to No. 4, but will not fall too far behind the Ducks for the No. 3 spot, still well within reach of a title game berth if two of the three teams ahead of them should slip up.

Georgia’s big victory over Ole Miss combined with LSU’s loss to Alabama should bring the Bulldogs into the BCS top five for the first time this season, making Georgia the class of the one-loss teams fighting for BCS hopes as the season hits its home stretch.

The Bulldogs’ appearance only begins a cavalcade of SEC squads that help round out the top 10, as Florida will likely climb back to No. 6, followed by LSU and South Carolina.

Pesky and undefeated Louisville will likely crack the top-nine this week, getting just enough from their victory over Temple to pass by idle Florida State, which is likely to land at No. 10.

Oregon State and Oklahoma are likely to round out the top 12 in some order, bunched

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Four (November 4th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 Florida Gators
7 LSU Tigers
8 South Carolina Gamecocks
9 Louisville Cardinals
10 Florida State Seminoles
11 Oklahoma Sooners
12 Oregon State Beavers

Projected BCS Standings: Notre Dame Set For No. 3 Spot In Third BCS Rankings of 2012

It seemed like every time you blinked Saturday, another undefeated, ranked team fell. It was almost contagious. The result? A set of BCS rankings that will not resemble anything we’ve seen to this point.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

With one key exception, of course, Alabama at No. 1. There no doubt there, but after that, the shocks get going, and get going quickly.

And yes, when the BCS rankings are released tomorrow, Oregon is likely in store for yet another shocker.

With Alabama a steady No. 1 and Kansas State up to a more comfortable No. 2 than Florida had enjoyed, Notre Dame will sneak by the Ducks, which seem to be in the slow lane of the BCS highway.

Passing to the Ducks’ left will be the Irish, on the strength of the computer boost they’ll see because of a victory over a strong computer-profiled Oklahoma squad. But with an already sturdy computer ranking, Notre Dame’s prize for a victory over the Sooners will truly be in the human element. Notre Dame is likely to eat up a big portion of the votes that went the Gators’ way because of their primetime showing. That will be enough to make up the .04 deficit to the Ducks the Irish saw last weekend, and good enough for No. 3.

So Oregon lands at No. 4, trailed by No. 5 Georgia, which charges hard into the top five with a victory over Florida. LSU and Florida keep themselves in the conversation at No. 6 and No. 7, respectively. Then things get interesting.

The teams that used to occupy the spots to come — Oregon State, Oklahoma, USC — all lost. So we’re going to see a real shakeup here. First in line tomorrow will be South Carolina, the beneficiary of already strong computer support, and, let’s face it, some room to move up with the losses around the country.

Florida State, having trouble with their computer ratings, climb to No. 9, and could be higher if not for really weak computer support. Oklahoma lost, yes, but anyone that watched the game knows the final score did not reflect the game itself, and the Sooners should land softly within the top 10 this week despite a second loss.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Three (October 28)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 LSU Tigers
7 Florida Gators
8 South Carolina Gamecocks
9 Florida State Seminoles
10 Oklahoma Sooners
11 Louisville Cardinals
12 Oregon State Beavers