Simulated BCS Standings Post-Week Six: Boise State Claims the Top Spot

Update: Now simulated for the top 18.

Chaos in the BCS.

Sound familiar? It seems like it happens every year. But in 2010 the chaos has started significantly earlier than we’ve been used to.

Alabama, who had been No. 1 for eight straight polls and had a 19-game winning streak going, finally saw those streaks come to an end, and falls out of the top spot for the first time in what seems like forever.

So who’s there to fill the void?

Well Ohio State had sat at the No. 2 spot in the human polls for most of the season, so they were there to take over for the Tide when the new human polls came out.

But what about the BCS? In last week’s simulated BCS rankings, Ohio State landed way d0wn the rankings at No. 7.

So who’s the new number one?

That’s right. The Boise State Broncos are your number one team in the new simulated BCS rankings.

Although No. 3 in both human elements, the Broncos are beneficiaries of strong computer rankings in comparison to Oregon and Ohio State’s — the two teams ahead of them in the human rankings.

Oregon, who takes No. 2 in both human polls, is good enough in the computers to take that same spot in the simulated BCS standings. TCU, rated well in the computers and in the Harris Poll, take No. 3.

Shockingly, Ohio State, who is ranked No. 1 in the AP, Harris and Coaches’ Polls has a terrible strength of schedule and is punished dearly for it, landing at No. 5 in the simulation.

LSU and Auburn take advantage of Alabama’s loss, moving up past the Tide as well this week and landing at No. 7 and No. 8 respectively just ahead of No. 9 Alabama.

After a long math process, the following is what the BCS would look like if it was released today, October 10th, following one of the most hectic weekends of college football in recent memory:

BCS Know How Simulated BCS Rankings Post-Week Six

Rank Team Simulated BCS Score
1 Boise State Broncos .9100
2 Oregon Ducks .8720
3 TCU Horned Frogs .8490
4 Oklahoma Sooners .8423
5 Ohio State Buckeyes .8287
6 Nebraska Cornhuskers .7903
7 LSU Tigers .7670
8 Auburn Tigers .7447
9 Alabama Crimson Tide .6540
10 Michigan State Spartans .6073
11 Utah Utes .5340
12 South Carolina Gamecocks .5323
13 Stanford Cardinal .4697
14 Missouri Tigers .3781
15 Arkansas Razorbacks .3546
16 Iowa Hawkeyes .3522
17 Oklahoma State Cowboys .3423
18 Nevada Wolf Pack .3237

Update: These rankings reflect all available BCS components.

Notes about the simulation:

  • With just one week left until the actual BCS rankings come out, almost all of the components of the BCS are finally producing rankings.
  • The only one missing is Peter Wolfe’s computer ranking, but the other five computers along with the USA Today Coaches’ Poll and the Harris Interactive College Football Poll are up and running.
  • In this simulation, I did not exclude the highest or lowest computer ranking, as the BCS formula usually does, because of the lack of six full computers.
  • This method also reveals a better picture of what all of the components think of each team. At this point, zeroing out a computer would do us no favors, it would only shroud the full picture.
  • So I utilized the BCS formula by averaging the Harris Interactive Poll vote share, the USA Today Poll vote share and the computer poll vote share (out of 125 instead of 100 for this week).

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. BCS Know How’s Simulated BCS:
    • Correctly projected Boise as No. 1, Oregon as No. 2.
    • Underestimated TCU, slide them up two spots, and projected No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 4 Ohio State are actually No. 4 and No. 5.
  • Nebraska gets a ton of help from the computers this week after being hated on by the machines last week. Their victory over Kansas State is worth more than most, and knocks them up into the No. 6 spot.

Harris Interactive Poll Week Six: Ohio State Leads the First Harris Poll

The first Harris Interactive College Football Poll of the season gives us some surprises, but like the Coaches’ Poll puts Ohio State atop its rankings with 79 of the possible 114 first place votes.

Oregon and Boise State are not far behind receiving 23 and 10 first place votes respectively while coming in at No. 2 and No. 3. Both receive a higher percentage of support from the Harris than from the Coaches’ Poll.

TCU gets a whole lot more love from the Harris than from the Coaches’, coming in at No. 4 in the Harris, while No. 5 in the Coaches’.

The switch of Nebraska and TCU is the only difference between the two polls’ top tens this week.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 10th

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Ohio State Buckeyes 2793 .980
2 Oregon Ducks 2722 .955
3 Boise State Broncos 2601 .913
4 TCU Horned Frogs 2409 .845
5 Nebraska Cornhuskers 2363 .829
6 Oklahoma Sooners 2276 .799
7 Auburn Tigers 2105 .739
8 Alabama Crimson Tide 2030 .712
9 LSU Tigers 1942 .681
10 Utah Utes 1793 .629

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Six: Ohio State Takes Over As No. 1

Following Alabama’s shocking loss, five different teams receive No. 1 votes from the USA Today Coaches Poll, led by Ohio State who takes 49 of the 59 available first place votes.

Oregon comes in at No. 2, followed by Boise State and Nebraska.

Alabama falls all the way to No. 8 after their loss.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 10th

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Ohio State Buckeyes 1455 .986
2 Oregon Ducks 1388 .941
3 Boise State Broncos 1335 .905
4 Nebraska Cornhuskers 1272 .862
5 TCU Horned Frogs 1213 .822
6 Oklahoma Sooners 1193 .808
7 Auburn Tigers 1060 .719
8 Alabama Crimson Tide 1029 .698
9 LSU Tigers 1021 .692
10 Utah Utes 940 .637

Alabama Toppled By South Carolina, Will Lose No. 1 Ranking

Alabama has fallen to South Carolina in rather shocking fashion, 35-21, ending a 19-game winning streak and likely an extended streak of being the No. 1 team in the nation.

The BCS standings will not be out until October 17, however the shake up will begin tomorrow with the release of five of the six computer polls, the USA Today Coaches’ Poll and the first Harris Interactive College Football Poll of the season.

In the most recent BCS simulations, Oklahoma and Boise State were ranked No. 2 and No. 3 behind the Crimson Tide. One of the two will likely take over in tomorrow’s BCS simulations.

Oklahoma had the week off and Boise State plays later tonight against Toledo.

No. 4 Oregon could also have a chance to take over the top spot, but the computers have not been kind to the Ducks thus far in the season.

Ohio State also is disliked among the computers although loved by the human voters, and came in at No. 7 in last week’s BCS simulation.

The Buckeyes have been ranked No. 2 all season in both the AP and Coaches’ Poll.

Look for a projected BCS from BCS Know How later tonight.

BlogPoll Ballot Week Five: Alabama and Oregon Prove Their Worth

Alabama took care of business against Florida and Oregon ran all over Stanford.

These are two of the best teams in the country. So how does it change my BlogPoll ballot?

Let’s find out:

*****

What I’m Thinking:

  • Big changes in week five. My No. 1 all season, Ohio State looked iffy against Illinois, while Alabama took care of their second top-10 SEC opponent in two weeks. That’s good enough to convince me that they’re the real deal again this year. They’re my new No. 1.
  • Oregon showed just how good they can be this year, making Stanford’s defense look weak after spotting the Cardinal an 18-point lead, and are my new No. 3. Stanford doesn’t seem to have everything as advertised, and take a tumble to No. 17 in my ballot.
  • Nebraska, Boise State and TCU get laddered downward to make room for Oregon, but its not so much what they did wrong as much as what the Ducks did right.
  • Auburn and Cam Newton look very very good against some pretty poor competition, and with LSU’s shocking victory from what would have been a very ugly defeat does not make LSU a convincing No. 2 in the SEC. Auburn takes that title for now.
  • Michigan State makes a nice jump for beating Wisconsin without coach Mark Dantonio, and just edges out Michigan in preparation for the Spartan-Wolverine showdown coming up in week six.
  • Florida State looked good over the weekend and makes a nice jump up along with Oregon State and Iowa who beat conference foes. We’ll hold judgment on just how good Iowa is before giving them credit for beating an obviously overrated Penn State team.
  • USC Watch: Gone! USC did not look like a top-25 team in their last-second loss to Washington, Jake Locker and Erik Folk. That’s two years in a row that’s happened. I was at the 56-0 victory over the Huskies in the Coliseum in 2008, and this was not anywhere close to that team. It’s certainly possible that USC can make a return appearance in these rankings, but with a pretty tough Pac-10 schedule looming, it might be tough.
  • Texas is the other dropout after looking sloppy against Oklahoma although the Sooners almost gave the Longhorns the victory in the final minutes.
  • New arrivals this week are Missouri and Air Force who have both looked very good in the early going. We’ll see where a very fluid bottom quarter of the ballot will go as the season goes on.
  • Conference Breakdown: SEC (5), Big Ten (5), Pac-10 (4), MWC (3), Big 12 (3), ACC (2), WAC (2), Big East (1).

So what do you think? Missing anyone? Giving anyone too much/too little credit? Let me know!

BlogPoll Ballot Week Four: Full Spin Cycle in the Muddled Middle

Week four had four ranked matchups, and the results were quite telling.

Alabama looked good for a half against Arkansas, and that’s all they needed to pull of the come-from-behind victory. Was it enough to bring them to the top of my BlogPoll in week four?

Lets find out:

*****

What I’m Thinking:

  • Once again I stay pretty contented with my top six teams. I like those teams. Any of them capturing a BCS national championship would please me. However, this was the first week I seriously considered putting prohibitive No. 1 Alabama at the top of my ballot after their victory over Arkansas. But I could find no reason to drop Ohio State down after a dominating victory over Eastern Michigan. So the Buckeyes remain No. 1.
  • Hey! Florida actually looked like Florida for once! And after Texas finally showed their true colors (not so good) Florida may actually have some potential this season yet.
  • Auburn and LSU get the benefit of beating also-ranked opponents in my ballot. Doing that always impresses me. But for their victims, South Carolina and West Virginia — neither of whom looked great — don’t get treated with any kind of forgiveness. The Mountaineers are down six, and the Gamecocks are out of my ballot. Sorry fellas.
  • Michigan and Miami look like they could provide seasons that would bring back memories back of the early-to-mid 00’s. Up week for both.
  • Arizona squeaks by past California, and is a beneficiary of some unbalanced play from the teams around them.
  • Florida State and Nevada both look good, and go on an upward journey in the ballot. Is that a trend to watch? We’ll see.
  • Oregon State takes a real tumble after falling to my No. 4 Boise State. They didn’t look so great on that blue turf…
  • USC Watch: That’s more like it boys. USC finally looked like the well-oiled machine they should be with all that skill, and plastered Washington State in Pullman. Yes, I know that its the Cougars — not exactly the scariest of Pac-10 opponents for the Trojans, but minimal penalties, some actual defense and an explosive looking offensive attack? Sign me up. USC is up big this week.
  • South Carolina drops out and is replaced by Michigan State who looks very good early. The Big Ten schedule is looming, what will Sparty show in the coming weeks?
  • Conference Breakdown: SEC (5), Pac-10 (5), Big Ten (5), Big 12 (3), ACC (2), MWC (2), WAC (2), Big East (1).

So what do you think? Missing anyone? Giving anyone too much/too little credit? Let me know!

BlogPoll Ballot Week Three: Nebraska, My Darling

This weekend wasn’t so much about results as much as it was about how the teams looked.

Yes, we got an upset — Arizona over Iowa — but even that one was a home game for the underdog, so really nothing too fantastical.

What we saw, instead was skill tests around the country, and some took advantage.

Like my new No. 3 Nebraska putting the beat down on Washington, or Arkansas making sure Georgia wouldn’t make that comeback.

Others, like Michigan and Oklahoma, just didn’t look as good as advertised in victories.

Changes ahead:

*****

What I’m Thinking:

  • So a week after not changing my top six, I put it into full spin cycle, yes my darling 1-2 combo of Ohio State and Alabama remains, but Nebraska takes over the three spot from Boise State. The Cornhuskers looked awesome against Washington, while it seems to me like Boise State’s strength of schedule is plummeting. Wonder why?
  • TCU and Oregon may just be the most impressive teams thus far in the season. The Ducks have 189 points in 180 minutes of football, while the Horned Frogs just keep rolling along with Andy Dalton and wacky jerseys.
  • Oh, Florida and Texas squeak by with conference victories. Again, I ask, why do people put so much faith in these two untested teams?
  • Utah rounds out a top ten of three non-AQ conference schools! Really quite something. The Utes looked quite good again this weekend, I eagerly await the Utah-TCU battle ahead.
  • LSU and Auburn show that my faith in the SEC was not complete idiocy, topping in-conference foes with stellar performances. That Auburn-Clemson game was the game of the night, better than that whole Michigan State “Little Giants” thing, although that was cool too.
  • On that note, Spartan coach Mark Dantonio suffered a heart attack after the game last night, I wish him a speedy recovery and hope returns to the sideline as soon as he feels ready. He’s a damn good coach and last night only further proves it.
  • Ugh, Wisconsin, nearly losing to Arizona State, but escapes because the Sun Devils couldn’t kick the game-tying extra point… not pretty.
  • West Virginia, Arkansas and Stanford, bravo, I liked what you brought to your respective games yesterday, and for that, we salute you.
  • Oregon State and Michigan? Not so much. The Beavers got lucky and got by a much weaker Louisville team, while Michigan nearly had a deja vu Appalachian State moment on Saturday. Not impressive.
  • Our newcomers: Arizona for taking out Iowa in a big way and Nevada for showing up the Pac-10 on a Friday night.
  • Our dropouts: Connecticut for losing a miserable game to Temple, and Houston, sorry but without Case Keenum, you’re in trouble.
  • A smart man once told me not to trust Iowa and “Ricky Pick-Six”. He was probably right…
  • USC Watch: A little better on Saturday against Minnesota, although until they made a run jump started by speedy Robert Woods (and yes he’s a beast), it looked like bad news for the Trojans. The defense looked slightly improved, but that might just be because Minnesota is not exactly at the same caliber of the cream of the Pac-10. Penalties continue to be a nuisance, as the Trojans rank among the worst in the FBS when it comes to yellow hankies. I cringe at the thought of Pac-10 play, although the first opponent is Washington State… so maybe we can work out some kinks before having to really turn it on.
  • Conference Breakdown: SEC (6), Pac-10 (5), Big Ten (4), Big 12 (3), ACC (2), MWC (2), WAC (2), Big East (1).

So what do you think? Missing anyone? Giving anyone too much/too little credit? Let me know!