Update: Now simulated for the top 18.
Chaos in the BCS.
Sound familiar? It seems like it happens every year. But in 2010 the chaos has started significantly earlier than we’ve been used to.
Alabama, who had been No. 1 for eight straight polls and had a 19-game winning streak going, finally saw those streaks come to an end, and falls out of the top spot for the first time in what seems like forever.
So who’s there to fill the void?
Well Ohio State had sat at the No. 2 spot in the human polls for most of the season, so they were there to take over for the Tide when the new human polls came out.
But what about the BCS? In last week’s simulated BCS rankings, Ohio State landed way d0wn the rankings at No. 7.
So who’s the new number one?
That’s right. The Boise State Broncos are your number one team in the new simulated BCS rankings.
Although No. 3 in both human elements, the Broncos are beneficiaries of strong computer rankings in comparison to Oregon and Ohio State’s — the two teams ahead of them in the human rankings.
Oregon, who takes No. 2 in both human polls, is good enough in the computers to take that same spot in the simulated BCS standings. TCU, rated well in the computers and in the Harris Poll, take No. 3.
Shockingly, Ohio State, who is ranked No. 1 in the AP, Harris and Coaches’ Polls has a terrible strength of schedule and is punished dearly for it, landing at No. 5 in the simulation.
LSU and Auburn take advantage of Alabama’s loss, moving up past the Tide as well this week and landing at No. 7 and No. 8 respectively just ahead of No. 9 Alabama.
After a long math process, the following is what the BCS would look like if it was released today, October 10th, following one of the most hectic weekends of college football in recent memory:
BCS Know How Simulated BCS Rankings Post-Week Six
|Rank||Team||Simulated BCS Score|
|1||Boise State Broncos||.9100|
|3||TCU Horned Frogs||.8490|
|5||Ohio State Buckeyes||.8287|
|9||Alabama Crimson Tide||.6540|
|10||Michigan State Spartans||.6073|
|12||South Carolina Gamecocks||.5323|
|17||Oklahoma State Cowboys||.3423|
|18||Nevada Wolf Pack||.3237|
Update: These rankings reflect all available BCS components.
Notes about the simulation:
- With just one week left until the actual BCS rankings come out, almost all of the components of the BCS are finally producing rankings.
- The only one missing is Peter Wolfe’s computer ranking, but the other five computers along with the USA Today Coaches’ Poll and the Harris Interactive College Football Poll are up and running.
- In this simulation, I did not exclude the highest or lowest computer ranking, as the BCS formula usually does, because of the lack of six full computers.
- This method also reveals a better picture of what all of the components think of each team. At this point, zeroing out a computer would do us no favors, it would only shroud the full picture.
- So I utilized the BCS formula by averaging the Harris Interactive Poll vote share, the USA Today Poll vote share and the computer poll vote share (out of 125 instead of 100 for this week).
- BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. BCS Know How’s Simulated BCS:
- Correctly projected Boise as No. 1, Oregon as No. 2.
- Underestimated TCU, slide them up two spots, and projected No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 4 Ohio State are actually No. 4 and No. 5.
- Nebraska gets a ton of help from the computers this week after being hated on by the machines last week. Their victory over Kansas State is worth more than most, and knocks them up into the No. 6 spot.