Big Ten’s Rose Bowl Bid to be Determined by BCS Standings

With Wisconsin’s blowout 70-23 victory over Northwestern on Saturday afternoon, the Big Ten’s conference title will officially be split between the Michigan State Spartans, Wisconsin Badgers and Ohio State Buckeyes.

The Badgers’ victory followed a 37-7 victory by Ohio State over Michigan and a 28-22 Michigan State win over Penn State. All three teams finish the season at 11-1 overall and 7-1 in conference.

Although all three will be credited with a Big Ten conference championship for this year, only one can be named to the Rose Bowl as the “Big Ten Champion” and that tie will be broken by the BCS standings.

The team which finishes the season ranked as the highest team among the three in the final BCS standings will be given the Big Ten’s automatic bid to the Rose Bowl.

Last weekend, Wisconsin was the highest ranked among the three teams at No. 7. Ohio State was right behind the Badgers at No. 8 and Michigan State was at No. 10.

With a few losses by top teams this weekend, the BCS standings are sure to shuffle at least slightly tomorrow, which will likely give us the clearest picture of which team will be on top come the final BCS standings.

Wisconsin seems to be in the driver’s seat for the bid, however all three teams will be powerless to change their fortunes as all three are done with their seasons, and will only be able to watch the final BCS release to know their final fate.

Projected BCS Rankings: Important Positioning At Stake in Sixth BCS Standings

Update: The sixth BCS standings have been released, take a look HERE

A week who’s defining characteristic was that the top three teams in the BCS were sitting at home watching the action should have spelt for a dreary Saturday in college football.

And yes, the day was mostly upset free, however the penultimate weekend in November did not pass without one good upset and the threat of many more.

Texas A&M pulled of the shocker of the night, beating the previously assumed Big 12 favorites Nebraska 9-6 on the power of field goals alone, to give the BCS its major shake of the week.

Other teams, like Ohio State, LSU, Michigan State and Arkansas all had to work to avoid upsets of their own, but got out of the weekend with just the losses already attached to their names.

So what does it all mean for tomorrow’s BCS standings?

Well for the second straight week, not a whole lot, although we do have a top-ten upset to deal with following the weekend’s action.

Spreads will again be affected, although not nearly as much as they were last week. Expect Boise to gain a smidgen of the gap they saw between themselves and TCU last weekend, but the distance should be about the same.

LSU and Stanford should be safe at No. 5 and No. 6 even though the Tigers had a ton of trouble with Ole Miss, while Stanford cruised by California. But after that things will get a little iffy.

The No. 7 spot Wisconsin has held down the past few weeks should be safe, although the Badgers’ fears about Ohio State creeping up to catch them despite a head-to-head victory will become even more straining, as its likely that the Buckeyes will be right at their heels.

Of course this is important because in the event of a three-way tie for the Big Ten title, the BCS standings will act as the tiebreaker, sending the winner to the Rose Bowl as the Big Ten champs.

The key to Wisconsin’s continued lead on the Buckeyes will need to be human poll support. If the Badgers falter in that area, with the relative strength of the Buckeyes’ remaining games, the Badgers could be in trouble. This week, with emphasis put on the results and the ease with which the Badgers won compared to the Buckeyes, they should do enough to stay ahead.

With Ohio State already in front of Nebraska in both polls, its likely that the Buckeyes will not see the gain they might have hoped for after a victory over a top-25 opponent on the road.

Expect the Buckeyes to grab Nebraska’s vacated No. 8 spot, followed rather closely by new Big 12 BCS positioner Oklahoma State, fresh of an easy victory over Kansas.

Alabama, Arkansas, Michigan State and Oklahoma should all vie for spots 10-13 while staying inside the BCS eligibility bubble for this week.

So with all of that in mind, here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 6:00 ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Six (November 21st)

Rank Team
1 Oregon Ducks
2 Auburn Tigers
3 TCU Horned Frogs
4 Boise State Broncos
5 LSU Tigers
6 Stanford Cardinal
7 Wisconsin Badgers
8 Ohio State Buckeyes
9 Oklahoma State Cowboys
10 Alabama Crimson Tide
11 Arkansas Razorbacks
12 Michigan State Spartans

BlogPoll Week Seven: Blind Taste Test Favors Oregon

Without even taking a look at my BlogPoll ballot from last week I filled out my ballot for week seven.

I felt like there was enough of a shakeup overall to warrant a reexamining of my ballot. Maybe fumbling my projected BCS caused me to want real change.

Here’s what came out the other end of my all-new looking BlogPoll ballot for week seven.



What I’m Thinking:

  • Yeah, I kind of like change this weekend. Of course when Ohio State falls, it makes it easier for changes to come down the pipeline, but this week was extra ripe for the changing.
  • So I replace the Buckeyes with the idle Oregon Ducks. Why? Well I’ve been most impressed with the Ducks this season. It’s that simple.
  • Auburn takes a full game’s worth of viewing to really appreciate. Cam Newton is something to be seen and the Tigers can make a run at the SEC Championship this year.
  • Non-AQ Boise State and TCU ladder up one each, followed by Oklahoma, whose win over  Texas looks a whole lot nicer now, but has yet to truly inspire me.
  • The obvious changes come next. Ohio State falls flat, Wisconsin moves ahead of the Buckeyes, but still behind Michigan State, who they of course lost to.
  • Alabama loses a spot for losing to a pretty poor South Carolina team, which also lost last weekend.
  • Iowa, Missouri and West Virginia impressed me enough to make an upward swing.
  • Tons of new teams! The return of Texas, Virginia Tech and…
  • USC Watch: The Trojans looks like Trojans of yore on Saturday in thumping California. Their only two losses have come on literal walk-off field goals. That’s painful, but not a reason to kill off their season already. Oregon is next, is another upset in store?
  • Oklahoma State also joins the fray. I probably had them out of the poll for too long. Sorry about that Cowboys, but I couldn’t quite trust you. You’re making strides towards my trust now.
  • The teams that left the rankings are probably pretty self-explanatory.
  • Conference Breakdown: SEC (5), Big 12 (5), Big Ten (4), Pac-10 (4), MWC (2), WAC (2), ACC (2), Big East (1).

So what do you think? Missing anyone? Giving anyone too much/too little credit? Let me know!

BlogPoll Week Six: Hey Ohio State, You’re In the Right Place

So Alabama took a tumble, just one week after I finally broke down and put them atop my BlogPoll ballot.

Who takes their spot? Well, the team that had been No. 1 in my ballots leading up to last week, Ohio State.

How do the other losses affect my ballot?

*****

What I’m Thinking:

  • Firstly, I’d like to apologize to South Carolina. I was reluctant to put them in my ballot in the past few weeks, even dropping them out when they lost to Auburn, but boy did they prove me wrong. A victory over Alabama certainly changed my mind about Stephen Garcia and Co.
  • Yes it looks lazy, but I didn’t see anything to convince me to not ladder up the teams from 2-7 after ‘Bama took the tumble.
  • My big winners on the weekend were Oregon State, Florida State and Michigan State who beat teams that I had ranked higher than them in conference battles. Miami exits the ballot to make room for the Gamecocks, while Michigan stays, but just barely at No. 25.
  • Arizona takes a nice nine-spot tumble and the Beavers, who I’ve been repping all season, take a nice five-spot leap.
  • LSU beat Florida but how good are either of those teams?
  • West Virginia the only hope for the down and out Big East?
  • It took a last-second field goal to keep them in the ballot, but Stanford beats my Trojans in Palo Alto. USC Watch may be dead for the season.
  • Conference Breakdown: SEC (6), Big Ten (5), Pac-10 (4), MWC (3), Big 12 (3), WAC (2), Big East (1), ACC (1).

So what do you think? Missing anyone? Giving anyone too much/too little credit? Let me know!

Simulated BCS Standings Post-Week Six: Boise State Claims the Top Spot

Update: Now simulated for the top 18.

Chaos in the BCS.

Sound familiar? It seems like it happens every year. But in 2010 the chaos has started significantly earlier than we’ve been used to.

Alabama, who had been No. 1 for eight straight polls and had a 19-game winning streak going, finally saw those streaks come to an end, and falls out of the top spot for the first time in what seems like forever.

So who’s there to fill the void?

Well Ohio State had sat at the No. 2 spot in the human polls for most of the season, so they were there to take over for the Tide when the new human polls came out.

But what about the BCS? In last week’s simulated BCS rankings, Ohio State landed way d0wn the rankings at No. 7.

So who’s the new number one?

That’s right. The Boise State Broncos are your number one team in the new simulated BCS rankings.

Although No. 3 in both human elements, the Broncos are beneficiaries of strong computer rankings in comparison to Oregon and Ohio State’s — the two teams ahead of them in the human rankings.

Oregon, who takes No. 2 in both human polls, is good enough in the computers to take that same spot in the simulated BCS standings. TCU, rated well in the computers and in the Harris Poll, take No. 3.

Shockingly, Ohio State, who is ranked No. 1 in the AP, Harris and Coaches’ Polls has a terrible strength of schedule and is punished dearly for it, landing at No. 5 in the simulation.

LSU and Auburn take advantage of Alabama’s loss, moving up past the Tide as well this week and landing at No. 7 and No. 8 respectively just ahead of No. 9 Alabama.

After a long math process, the following is what the BCS would look like if it was released today, October 10th, following one of the most hectic weekends of college football in recent memory:

BCS Know How Simulated BCS Rankings Post-Week Six

Rank Team Simulated BCS Score
1 Boise State Broncos .9100
2 Oregon Ducks .8720
3 TCU Horned Frogs .8490
4 Oklahoma Sooners .8423
5 Ohio State Buckeyes .8287
6 Nebraska Cornhuskers .7903
7 LSU Tigers .7670
8 Auburn Tigers .7447
9 Alabama Crimson Tide .6540
10 Michigan State Spartans .6073
11 Utah Utes .5340
12 South Carolina Gamecocks .5323
13 Stanford Cardinal .4697
14 Missouri Tigers .3781
15 Arkansas Razorbacks .3546
16 Iowa Hawkeyes .3522
17 Oklahoma State Cowboys .3423
18 Nevada Wolf Pack .3237

Update: These rankings reflect all available BCS components.

Notes about the simulation:

  • With just one week left until the actual BCS rankings come out, almost all of the components of the BCS are finally producing rankings.
  • The only one missing is Peter Wolfe’s computer ranking, but the other five computers along with the USA Today Coaches’ Poll and the Harris Interactive College Football Poll are up and running.
  • In this simulation, I did not exclude the highest or lowest computer ranking, as the BCS formula usually does, because of the lack of six full computers.
  • This method also reveals a better picture of what all of the components think of each team. At this point, zeroing out a computer would do us no favors, it would only shroud the full picture.
  • So I utilized the BCS formula by averaging the Harris Interactive Poll vote share, the USA Today Poll vote share and the computer poll vote share (out of 125 instead of 100 for this week).

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. BCS Know How’s Simulated BCS:
    • Correctly projected Boise as No. 1, Oregon as No. 2.
    • Underestimated TCU, slide them up two spots, and projected No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 4 Ohio State are actually No. 4 and No. 5.
  • Nebraska gets a ton of help from the computers this week after being hated on by the machines last week. Their victory over Kansas State is worth more than most, and knocks them up into the No. 6 spot.

Harris Interactive Poll Week Six: Ohio State Leads the First Harris Poll

The first Harris Interactive College Football Poll of the season gives us some surprises, but like the Coaches’ Poll puts Ohio State atop its rankings with 79 of the possible 114 first place votes.

Oregon and Boise State are not far behind receiving 23 and 10 first place votes respectively while coming in at No. 2 and No. 3. Both receive a higher percentage of support from the Harris than from the Coaches’ Poll.

TCU gets a whole lot more love from the Harris than from the Coaches’, coming in at No. 4 in the Harris, while No. 5 in the Coaches’.

The switch of Nebraska and TCU is the only difference between the two polls’ top tens this week.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 10th

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Ohio State Buckeyes 2793 .980
2 Oregon Ducks 2722 .955
3 Boise State Broncos 2601 .913
4 TCU Horned Frogs 2409 .845
5 Nebraska Cornhuskers 2363 .829
6 Oklahoma Sooners 2276 .799
7 Auburn Tigers 2105 .739
8 Alabama Crimson Tide 2030 .712
9 LSU Tigers 1942 .681
10 Utah Utes 1793 .629

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Six: Ohio State Takes Over As No. 1

Following Alabama’s shocking loss, five different teams receive No. 1 votes from the USA Today Coaches Poll, led by Ohio State who takes 49 of the 59 available first place votes.

Oregon comes in at No. 2, followed by Boise State and Nebraska.

Alabama falls all the way to No. 8 after their loss.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 10th

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Ohio State Buckeyes 1455 .986
2 Oregon Ducks 1388 .941
3 Boise State Broncos 1335 .905
4 Nebraska Cornhuskers 1272 .862
5 TCU Horned Frogs 1213 .822
6 Oklahoma Sooners 1193 .808
7 Auburn Tigers 1060 .719
8 Alabama Crimson Tide 1029 .698
9 LSU Tigers 1021 .692
10 Utah Utes 940 .637

Alabama Toppled By South Carolina, Will Lose No. 1 Ranking

Alabama has fallen to South Carolina in rather shocking fashion, 35-21, ending a 19-game winning streak and likely an extended streak of being the No. 1 team in the nation.

The BCS standings will not be out until October 17, however the shake up will begin tomorrow with the release of five of the six computer polls, the USA Today Coaches’ Poll and the first Harris Interactive College Football Poll of the season.

In the most recent BCS simulations, Oklahoma and Boise State were ranked No. 2 and No. 3 behind the Crimson Tide. One of the two will likely take over in tomorrow’s BCS simulations.

Oklahoma had the week off and Boise State plays later tonight against Toledo.

No. 4 Oregon could also have a chance to take over the top spot, but the computers have not been kind to the Ducks thus far in the season.

Ohio State also is disliked among the computers although loved by the human voters, and came in at No. 7 in last week’s BCS simulation.

The Buckeyes have been ranked No. 2 all season in both the AP and Coaches’ Poll.

Look for a projected BCS from BCS Know How later tonight.

BlogPoll Ballot Week Five: Alabama and Oregon Prove Their Worth

Alabama took care of business against Florida and Oregon ran all over Stanford.

These are two of the best teams in the country. So how does it change my BlogPoll ballot?

Let’s find out:

*****

What I’m Thinking:

  • Big changes in week five. My No. 1 all season, Ohio State looked iffy against Illinois, while Alabama took care of their second top-10 SEC opponent in two weeks. That’s good enough to convince me that they’re the real deal again this year. They’re my new No. 1.
  • Oregon showed just how good they can be this year, making Stanford’s defense look weak after spotting the Cardinal an 18-point lead, and are my new No. 3. Stanford doesn’t seem to have everything as advertised, and take a tumble to No. 17 in my ballot.
  • Nebraska, Boise State and TCU get laddered downward to make room for Oregon, but its not so much what they did wrong as much as what the Ducks did right.
  • Auburn and Cam Newton look very very good against some pretty poor competition, and with LSU’s shocking victory from what would have been a very ugly defeat does not make LSU a convincing No. 2 in the SEC. Auburn takes that title for now.
  • Michigan State makes a nice jump for beating Wisconsin without coach Mark Dantonio, and just edges out Michigan in preparation for the Spartan-Wolverine showdown coming up in week six.
  • Florida State looked good over the weekend and makes a nice jump up along with Oregon State and Iowa who beat conference foes. We’ll hold judgment on just how good Iowa is before giving them credit for beating an obviously overrated Penn State team.
  • USC Watch: Gone! USC did not look like a top-25 team in their last-second loss to Washington, Jake Locker and Erik Folk. That’s two years in a row that’s happened. I was at the 56-0 victory over the Huskies in the Coliseum in 2008, and this was not anywhere close to that team. It’s certainly possible that USC can make a return appearance in these rankings, but with a pretty tough Pac-10 schedule looming, it might be tough.
  • Texas is the other dropout after looking sloppy against Oklahoma although the Sooners almost gave the Longhorns the victory in the final minutes.
  • New arrivals this week are Missouri and Air Force who have both looked very good in the early going. We’ll see where a very fluid bottom quarter of the ballot will go as the season goes on.
  • Conference Breakdown: SEC (5), Big Ten (5), Pac-10 (4), MWC (3), Big 12 (3), ACC (2), WAC (2), Big East (1).

So what do you think? Missing anyone? Giving anyone too much/too little credit? Let me know!

BlogPoll Ballot Week Four: Full Spin Cycle in the Muddled Middle

Week four had four ranked matchups, and the results were quite telling.

Alabama looked good for a half against Arkansas, and that’s all they needed to pull of the come-from-behind victory. Was it enough to bring them to the top of my BlogPoll in week four?

Lets find out:

*****

What I’m Thinking:

  • Once again I stay pretty contented with my top six teams. I like those teams. Any of them capturing a BCS national championship would please me. However, this was the first week I seriously considered putting prohibitive No. 1 Alabama at the top of my ballot after their victory over Arkansas. But I could find no reason to drop Ohio State down after a dominating victory over Eastern Michigan. So the Buckeyes remain No. 1.
  • Hey! Florida actually looked like Florida for once! And after Texas finally showed their true colors (not so good) Florida may actually have some potential this season yet.
  • Auburn and LSU get the benefit of beating also-ranked opponents in my ballot. Doing that always impresses me. But for their victims, South Carolina and West Virginia — neither of whom looked great — don’t get treated with any kind of forgiveness. The Mountaineers are down six, and the Gamecocks are out of my ballot. Sorry fellas.
  • Michigan and Miami look like they could provide seasons that would bring back memories back of the early-to-mid 00’s. Up week for both.
  • Arizona squeaks by past California, and is a beneficiary of some unbalanced play from the teams around them.
  • Florida State and Nevada both look good, and go on an upward journey in the ballot. Is that a trend to watch? We’ll see.
  • Oregon State takes a real tumble after falling to my No. 4 Boise State. They didn’t look so great on that blue turf…
  • USC Watch: That’s more like it boys. USC finally looked like the well-oiled machine they should be with all that skill, and plastered Washington State in Pullman. Yes, I know that its the Cougars — not exactly the scariest of Pac-10 opponents for the Trojans, but minimal penalties, some actual defense and an explosive looking offensive attack? Sign me up. USC is up big this week.
  • South Carolina drops out and is replaced by Michigan State who looks very good early. The Big Ten schedule is looming, what will Sparty show in the coming weeks?
  • Conference Breakdown: SEC (5), Pac-10 (5), Big Ten (5), Big 12 (3), ACC (2), MWC (2), WAC (2), Big East (1).

So what do you think? Missing anyone? Giving anyone too much/too little credit? Let me know!