Simulated BCS Rankings Week Six: Clemson, Stanford Continue to Battle

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Though we’re still two weeks removed from the first official BCS rankings of the season, with so many teams running through the early part of their schedules without a bump, it seems like we’re bound to be in for some real intrigue.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Ohio State Buckeyes
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The kind of back-and-forth in the rankings that we’ve come to expect manifests itself this week with the ongoing battle between Clemson and Stanford, two teams that have traded the No. 3 spot in our simulated BCS rankings since the start of the season. How are we figuring these out?

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’ve begun to use all available BCS versions of the BCS component computers, this week that includes: Colley’s Matrix, Massey’s BCS, Sagarin, Anderson & Hester and Billingsley. However, we will not remove any of the rankings, as BCS usually does, as to get a better overall sense of where we stand. No need to eliminate when we don’t have the complete picture to begin with. Five computers used means a total possible score of 125 in the component.
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with about 61% accuracy

This week, despite Stanford’s bounding gains in the computer rankings, it’s Clemson that takes the No. 3 spot. That’s what happens when the two-thirds of the formula based on the voting polls favors the Tigers. That margin, however, is small. To the point where no more than a handful of votes in either the Coaches’ or AP polls could have swung the tides in Stanford’s favor.

So with the Tigers and Cardinal set in their 3-4 tandem, we instead turn our attention to Ohio State and Florida State, two teams that saw wide-spread support from the voters in the early going, but struggled to find that computer love every BCS contender needs.

All that has changed in the last few days, as victories over Northwestern and Maryland, respectively, have given the duo new life in the computers. The Buckeyes averaged a 8.6 ranking while Florida State pulled in an average of 4.6 across the five computer rankings.

Both are stronger than they had been in the early goings of these simulations, positive steps for two teams possibly gearing up for a fight to the finish with a bevy of other undefeated squads.

But enough talk — here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the sixth week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — October 6

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9789
2 Oregon Ducks .8893
3 Clemson Tigers .8736
4 Stanford Cardinal .8627
5 Ohio State Buckeyes .8186
6 Florida State Seminoles .7982
7 Georgia Bulldogs .7466
8 Oklahoma Sooners .6560
9 LSU Tigers .6256
10 Louisville Cardinals .5699
11 UCLA Bruins .5664
12 Texas A&M Aggies .5617
13 Miami Hurricanes .5100
14 South Carolina Gamecocks .4769
15 Baylor Bears .4668
16 Michigan Wolverines .3827

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USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Six: Florida State’s Week To Move

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A blowout win did wonders for Florida State this week, vaulting the Seminoles from No. 8 to No. 6 in the USA Today Coaches Poll.

Interestingly, Alabama loses a little ground on the rest of the field this week, with Oregon gaining double the number of first-place votes as the week before, and watching teams like No. 4 Clemson and No. 3 Ohio State creep every closer to the top. With two more weekends before the first BCS rankings and one more weekend until the Harris Poll appears for the first time, the Coaches’ Poll is the one to watch for now.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 6

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1544 .996
2 Oregon Ducks 1486 .959
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 1379 .890
4 Clemson Tigers 1356 .875
5 Stanford Cardinal 1327 .856
6 Florida State Seminoles 1188 .767
7 Georgia Bulldogs 1130 .729
8 Louisville Cardinals 1105 .713
9 Texas A&M Aggies 1067 .688
10 Oklahoma Sooners 964 .622
11 LSU Tigers 953 .615
12 South Carolina Gamecocks 833 .537

Projected 2014 BCS Bowls — October 6

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The BCS has always had trouble with too many teams finishing the season undefeated. It’s seasons like 2004 that have brought the BCS to its knees and foretold the end of this era. But how fitting would it be for the BCS, in its final year, to bow out with one last blowout controversy with a handful of undefeated teams and no true way to differentiate them?

BCS Bowl Projections
Bowl Matchup
Title Game Alabama vs. Stanford
Rose Bowl Oregon vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl Georgia vs. Florida State
Orange Bowl Clemson vs. Michigan
Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma vs. Louisville
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With Stanford’s big win over Washington and Ohio State’s big win over Northwestern, we might just be headed for a season’s end with bevy of deserving teams with spotless records. Though it seems pretty assured an undefeated SEC team would make the title game, who would get the nod to play that SEC squad in the title game?

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide (BCS No. 1) vs. Stanford Cardinal (BCS No. 2)

Comment: An impressive and tight victory over a very good Washington team was among the best wins of the weekend among title contenders, and with Oregon in Palo Alto facing the Cardinal squarely down the road, things could be coming up Cardinal in the last BCS title game. Alabama, for their part, has had little trouble starting their season with another undefeated run through early opponents.

Rose Bowl: Oregon Ducks (At-large selection) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten champion)

Comment: Ohio State’s strong victory over Northwestern was as important as Stanford’s Washington victory, but with only a game against Michigan during the final Big Ten regular season week left as far as tough games, is there enough to push Ohio State past a potential Pac-12 undefeated team? As for Oregon, if they come up short of a Pac-12 title and an undefeated run through their season, they’d land softly in the Rose Bowl.

Sugar Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs (At-large selection) vs. Florida State Seminoles (At-large selection)

Comment: Georgia continues to keep their national title and BCS hopes alive with impressive victories in nationally televised games with Aaron Murray at the helm. Sure, the Bulldogs’ loss to Clemson was crushing to open the season, but it seems all the more likely that Georgia belongs in the upper echelon of teams in the country. With that in mind, the Sugar Bowl would likely want to take the Bulldogs as a replacement and pair them with the ACC’s second-best team, Florida State.

Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers (ACC champion) vs. Michigan Wolverines (At-large selection)

Comment: After two weeks of struggling against lesser foes, Michigan showed their strength against Minnesota for a much-needed easy victory in Big Ten play. Though it hasn’t been impressive, Michigan has won five games to open the season, and even if they are unable to top Ohio State at the end of this year, a one-loss Big Ten team will be hard to pass up for an at-large BCS bid. As for the Tigers, will a victory over Georgia and a potential victory over Florida State be enough to push them into the national title game or will they have to settle for an Orange Bowl bid as simply the ACC’s champion?

Fiesta Bowl: Louisville Cardinals (AAC champion) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (Big 12 champion)

Comment: Louisville might be at the very bottom of the totem pole when it comes to teams with the chance to capitalize on an undefeated season. Mostly, that’s a result of the schedule laid in front of them in the all-new AAC. But that’s not to say that things couldn’t fall in their favor, there’s just a lot that has to happen. As for Oklahoma, the Sooners will be tested against a Baylor team that seems unstoppable, but if they are able to triumph there, they’d be favored to make the Fiesta Bowl as the Big 12’s champion and host.