BCS Computer Rankings Week Three: Kansas State, Notre Dame Share Computer Love

It was clear that a victory over the computer-strong Oklahoma Sooners would do wonders for Notre Dame’s BCS rank, but their climb into a share of the BCS computer aggregate lead in the third BCS rankings was somewhat surprising.

But that’s what it took for the Irish to claim the No. 3 spot in the overall BCS rankings, sharing the honor of the best computer team with BCS No. 2 Kansas State.

Alabama, slowly climbing the ranks of the computers, lands at No. 3 after a big victory over Mississippi State, with Florida and Oregon rounding out the BCS computers top-five teams.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Three (October 28)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 Kansas St. Alabama Notre Dame Notre Dame Kansas St. Kansas St.
2 Notre Dame Notre Dame Alabama Kansas St. Notre Dame Notre Dame
3 Alabama Kansas St. Kansas St. Alabama Florida Alabama
4 Oregon Oregon Florida Florida LSU Florida
5 Florida LSU Oregon Oregon Oklahoma Oregon
6 Georiga Georgia Oregon St LSU Georgia LSU

And the aggregate BCS computer rankings:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week Three (October 28)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .970
1 Kansas State Wildcats .970
3 Alabama Crimson Tide .930
4 Florida Gators .870
5 Oregon Ducks .850
6 LSU Tigers .790
7 Georgia Bulldogs .780
8 Oregon State Beavers .700
9 South Carolina Gamecocks .670
10 Oklahoma Sooners .610
11 Stanford Cardinal .580
12 Texas Tech Red Raiders .570

Third BCS Rankings of 2012: Notre Dame Grabs Slight Edge Over Oregon, Claims No. 3 Spot

Three weeks into the BCS standings and we’re set up for the kind of controversial finish the BCS is accustomed to creating. In the waning years of the system, we might as well be used to this by now.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Oregon Ducks
5 LSU Tigers
Scroll down for more

Oregon, a team that has done nothing wrong, is once again jumped in the BCS rankings this week, as Notre Dame claims the BCS’s No. 3 spot. Oregon’s position is unchanged from last weekend, when they trailed Florida and Kansas State, but with Florida dropping a big game to Georgia, many might have expected the Ducks to see a one-spot bump.

Instead, Notre Dame, the victor in a key battle with Oklahoma, leaps past Oregon.

Quietly, Kansas State is the new No. 2 team after Florida’s loss, and is now comfortably ahead of the Ducks. Not a distance that Oregon cannot make up in the coming weeks, but one that is surprisingly large given the disparity of the rankings in the polls — where Oregon is a sturdy No. 2 and Kansas State is a sturdy No. 3.

LSU rounds out the top five, staying just ahead of resurgent No. 6 Georgia. Florida, the Bulldogs’ victim, lands at No. 7.

Then it gets a little nutty. Teams from here on down are in desperate need of some help to move up, and are well on the outside looking in on the national title picture. South Carolina, on the strength of a huge boost from the computers, lands at No. 8 despite a lower ranking in the human element.

Florida State, the more convincing favorite of the pollsters in this ranking area, lands at No. 9, just ahead of No. 10 Louisville, up big from last week’s No. 16 ranking.

One-loss Oregon State falls from No. 7 to No. 11 after suffering their first loss to Washington, but stays among the top-12 on the strength of still-impressive computer rankings. Oklahoma rounds out the top 12.

A third iteration of the BCS and we’re already looking at controversy and intrigue. Let’s find out how it all plays out. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the third BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Three — October 28th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9759
2 Kansas State Wildcats .9400
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .9147
4 Oregon Ducks .9136
5 LSU Tigers .8163
6 Georgia Bulldogs .7753
7 Florida Gators .7604
8 South Carolina Gamecocks .5968
9 Florida State Seminoles .5743
10 Louisville Cardinals .5661
11 Oregon State Beavers .5559
12 Oklahoma Sooners .5454
13 Clemson Tigers .5095
14 Stanford Cardinal .4863
15 Mississippi State Bulldogs .3913
16 Texas A&M Aggies .3593

Some thoughts:

Harris Interactive Poll Week Nine: Kansas State, Notre Dame, LSU each up one spot

Kansas State is your new No. 3 team in the latest Harris Interactive Poll, which closely resembles the week’s Coaches’ Poll.

Much like in today’s USA Today polling, Kansas State and Notre Dame claim the No. 3 and No. 4 spots comfortably with Florida out of the way. LSU rounds out the top five, while Georgia bounces up to No. 6 after topping the Gators.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 28

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2868 .997
2 Oregon Ducks 2725 .948
3 Kansas State Wildcats 2656 .924
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2553 .888
5 LSU Tigers 2382 .829
6 Georgia Bulldogs 2205 .767
7 Florida State Seminoles 2193 .763
8 Florida Gators 2061 .717
9 Clemson Tigers 1917 .667
10 Louisville Cardinals 1714 .596
11 South Carolina Gamecocks 1588 .552
12 Oklahoma Sooners 1473 .512

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Nine: Notre Dame, Kansas State see big gains

A Florida loss mixed with impressive victories from Kansas State and Notre Dame once again shrunk Oregon’s hold on No. 2, but the Ducks remain 25 points ahead of No. 3 Kansas State this weekend. Notre Dame lands at No. 4 after their victory over Oklahoma, which falls just to No. 12 with the loss.

Georgia climbs to No. 6 in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll on the strength of their upset victory over Florida, but has plenty of work left to do in the coming weeks if they hope to climb into the national title discussion.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 28

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1475 1.000
2 Oregon Ducks 1391 .943
3 Kansas State Wildcats 1366 .926
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1307 .886
5 LSU Tigers 1225 .831
6 Georgia Bulldogs 1149 .779
7 Florida State Seminoles 1121 .760
8 Florida Gators 1024 .694
9 Clemson Tigers 976 .662
10 Louisville Cardinals 888 .602
11 South Carolina Gamecocks 838 .568
12 Oklahoma Sooners 758 .514

Projected BCS Standings: Notre Dame Set For No. 3 Spot In Third BCS Rankings of 2012

It seemed like every time you blinked Saturday, another undefeated, ranked team fell. It was almost contagious. The result? A set of BCS rankings that will not resemble anything we’ve seen to this point.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

With one key exception, of course, Alabama at No. 1. There no doubt there, but after that, the shocks get going, and get going quickly.

And yes, when the BCS rankings are released tomorrow, Oregon is likely in store for yet another shocker.

With Alabama a steady No. 1 and Kansas State up to a more comfortable No. 2 than Florida had enjoyed, Notre Dame will sneak by the Ducks, which seem to be in the slow lane of the BCS highway.

Passing to the Ducks’ left will be the Irish, on the strength of the computer boost they’ll see because of a victory over a strong computer-profiled Oklahoma squad. But with an already sturdy computer ranking, Notre Dame’s prize for a victory over the Sooners will truly be in the human element. Notre Dame is likely to eat up a big portion of the votes that went the Gators’ way because of their primetime showing. That will be enough to make up the .04 deficit to the Ducks the Irish saw last weekend, and good enough for No. 3.

So Oregon lands at No. 4, trailed by No. 5 Georgia, which charges hard into the top five with a victory over Florida. LSU and Florida keep themselves in the conversation at No. 6 and No. 7, respectively. Then things get interesting.

The teams that used to occupy the spots to come — Oregon State, Oklahoma, USC — all lost. So we’re going to see a real shakeup here. First in line tomorrow will be South Carolina, the beneficiary of already strong computer support, and, let’s face it, some room to move up with the losses around the country.

Florida State, having trouble with their computer ratings, climb to No. 9, and could be higher if not for really weak computer support. Oklahoma lost, yes, but anyone that watched the game knows the final score did not reflect the game itself, and the Sooners should land softly within the top 10 this week despite a second loss.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Three (October 28)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 LSU Tigers
7 Florida Gators
8 South Carolina Gamecocks
9 Florida State Seminoles
10 Oklahoma Sooners
11 Louisville Cardinals
12 Oregon State Beavers

Projected 2013 BCS Bowls — October 28th

The later we get into the season, the clearer the BCS picture. At least that’s the idea. And yet, despite the thinning of the ranks of the undefeated, the BCS picture is as murky as we’ve seen it in 2012.

BCS Bowl Projections
Bowl Matchup
Title Game Alabama vs. Kansas State
Rose Bowl Oregon vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl Florida St. vs. Louisville
Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Scroll down for more

Florida’s loss, USC’s stumble and Notre Dame’s triumph were just some of the results that send the BCS into a murky November state. With just five weekends remaining, there are more than a few questions to answer.

The most pressing, of course, is how Oregon is to be treated moving forward. It might not make the Duck faithful happy to hear it, but Oregon is likely at the mercy of its own schedule, and at the mercy of the rest of the Pac-12. Still chasing Kansas State in the computers, the Ducks might still need some help.

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide (BCS No. 1) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (BCS No. 2)

Comment: Alabama had a tough test. As did Kansas State. Things keep looking up for the Wildcats, given Florida’s loss this weekend. Kansas State is the No. 2 team in the BCS this weekend. That in and of itself has an interesting impact on the nation. When the media — and ESPN specifically — starts referring to K-State as the No. 2 team in the country, the country starts to believe it. So an undefeated end to their season could mean a shift of support their way. And with an already strong computer profile, Kansas State could be BCS title game bound. Keep reading to find out more.

Rose Bowl: Oregon Ducks (Pac-12 champions) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Big Ten champion)

Comment: Sounds like a broken record at this point, but beyond Ohio State, the Big Ten has been anything but predictable. Wisconsin looking like the team they were supposed to be headed into the season? Well, here’s a shocking overtime loss. Nebraska faltering midway through 2012? A key victory over Michigan changes that tune. So Nebraska reclaims this spot in the Rose Bowl as Big Ten champs.

Oregon is on the outside looking in at the title game. But the Pac-12 seems ripe for the taking. What to watch for if you’re a Oregon fan? The perceived level of difficulty of Oregon’s remaining schedule. It wont be so much about the computers, know that. Games remain for the Ducks against USC, Oregon State and a Pac-12 South champion. Will victories there truly reflect that of the No. 2 team in the country? That will be up to the voters. With a computer deficit to make up, Oregon will need to do much more than win, they will need to convince.

Sugar Bowl: Florida Gators (At-large selection) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (At-large selection)

Comment: If the Sugar Bowl is to lose its SEC champ to the BCS title game, they might be faced with an interesting conundrum — one they’ve faced before. If they can run the table the rest of the way, Georgia is likely to head to the SEC Championship Game, where they could suffer a second loss on the year. Florida, if they run off victories to end the season, would fall short. So which does the Sugar Bowl pick to replace a title-game bound Alabama?

Notre Dame, now all but assured a BCS bid, locks into the Sugar Bowl as New Orleans lucks into a strange confluence of factors the Fiesta Bowl has to deal with (explained below) and gets a fantastic matchup featuring the Irish.

Orange Bowl: Florida State Seminoles (ACC champion) vs. Louisville Cardinals (Big East champion)

Comment: Florida State silenced Duke on the weekend, while Louisville snuck by Cincinnati as both remain in prime position to claim their respective conference titles and in turn, spots in the Orange Bowl. The Cardinals still could land elsewhere, given their opportunity now to finish as the Big East’s lone undefeated — both in conference and out of conference. But for now, let’s stay with the Orange Bowl as the landing spot for the Big East champ.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners (Big 12 champion) vs. Boise State Broncos (At-large selection)

Comment: With Kansas State now off to the title game, the Fiesta Bowl scrambles and attempts to fill the Big 12 slot vacated by the Wildcats with Oklahoma, a strong two-loss team. Of course, a trip here is reliant upon the Sooners being able to bounce back from a tough loss to Notre Dame.

Attempting to avoid the Oklahoma-Notre Dame rematch, the Fiesta Bowl is somewhat handcuffed into skipping the Irish here, instead pitting Oklahoma against a one-loss Boise State. Whether the Broncos are automatically qualified for the BCS or not remains to be seen. But they’re an attractive choice here either way.