BCS Computer Rankings Week One: Oklahoma Gets Help From the Computers

Many times its hard to tell why the BCS is the way it is when as a nation we are more accustomed to being exposed to the media and coaches polls at all times.

What are these mysterious computers? And what were their results? It’s never very clear unless you dig deep for them.

So this season, BCS Know How will post the top ten computer teams, with an explanation of why the computers either favored or hurt a team.

In the first BCS standings, we saw a team that was No. 3 and No. 4 in the human polls take over the top spot in the BCS. Why was this?

Well Oklahoma had a .980 computer score, surprisingly good for this early in the season.

No. 1 in both polls, Oregon had a pretty dismal performance in the computers, which translated into them losing their perch atop the college football world.

Boise State also suffered from poor computer rankings, which allowed Oklahoma to ascend to the top.

LSU, Michigan State and Auburn also got tons of love from the computers, coming in with computer averages all at or above .890, which is the general barrier for the best teams in the country.

BCS Computer Rankings – BCS Week One (October 17th)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1 Oklahoma Sooners .980
2 LSU Tigers .940
3 Auburn Tigers .900
4 Michigan State Spartans .890
5 TCU Horned Frogs .800
6 Missouri Tigers .790
7 Boise State Broncos .780
8 Oregon Ducks .710
9 Oklahoma State Cowboys .690
10 Stanford Cardinal .630

First BCS Rankings of 2010: Oklahoma, Oregon and Boise State Lead the Way

After one of the more hectic and unpredictable weekends in recent college football history, we as the college football nation were gifted with the 2010 season’s first BCS standings.

And what did we see atop those new rankings? A surprise.

Oklahoma, who had been a somewhat distant No. 4 in last week’s simulation of the BCS, benefited most from the precipitous falls of the nation’ title favorites these past two weeks and claimed the top spot in the year’s first BCS rankings.

Sure, Ohio State’s loss to Wisconsin opened up the spot for the Sooners, however the Sooners gained the most on Saturday from Texas’s victory over Nebraska. The Sooners’ victory over the Longhorns in the Red River Rivalry game now looks even more impressive to the computers and the voters, and it showed in the Sooners’ poll stats on Sunday.

Boise State, who I thought had the inside track to the No. 1 spot here, instead land at No. 3, which is still the highest-ever ranking for a non-AQ school.

The Broncos did not have a good weekend in the computers. When we last left the BCS computers, Boise had the second-best computer rankings, not so much this weekend. The Broncos come in a much lower computer ranking, as their victory over lowly San Jose State and Oregon State’s loss to Washington did not help their computer numbers.

Seemingly lost in this computer shuffle was Oregon, who was No. 1 in all three voter polls this weekend, but bow at No. 2 in the BCS standings, a victim of poor computer rankings.

Auburn takes a nice jump up towards the top with a victory over Arkansas, followed by TCU, LSU, Michigan State and Alabama.

The unbeaten SEC duo of Auburn and LSU will start playing knockout next week when the two sets of Tigers face off in another epic SEC showdown, the winner of which will likely get a nice BCS boost come next weekend.

So here’s this week’s first set of BCS rankings:

BCS Standings Week One – October 17th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Oklahoma Sooners .9215
2 Oregon Ducks .8921
3 Boise State Broncos .8898
4 Auburn Tigers .8641
5 TCU Horned Frogs .8573
6 LSU Tigers .8245
7 Michigan State Spartans .7628
8 Alabama Crimson Tide .6654
9 Utah Utes .6540
10 Ohio State Buckeyes .5726
11 Missouri Tigers .5491
12 Stanford Cardinal .5374
13 Wisconsin Badgers .5335
14 Oklahoma State Cowboys .5261
15 Iowa Hawkeyes .4824
16 Nebraska Cornhuskers .4295

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Unfortunately, not the strongest of starts. However I was not alone in thinking Boise would be atop these rankings. Switch No. 1 and No. 3, and I’m golden.
    • Did accurately predict the poor performance from Oregon because of computers and strong performances from Auburn and Michigan State.
    • I truly believe the Broncos are getting short changed and Oklahoma is getting too much love, which explains my slip-ups. I see no reason they should have jumped TCU in the Coaches’ Poll. It must be fear or tethering to old beliefs that causes these rifts between analysts and voters.
  • Alabama is still alive, however the gap between the Tide and No. 7 Michigan State is large, although not insurmountable if both run the table the rest of the way.
  • The gap from 1-3 is minuscule and can change on a weekly basis, even with wins across the board. Watch out for 2010 to be one of the more unpredictable seasons on record.
  • The group from 1-3 should be safe next week, while the group 4-6 will need some help to climb into those spots.

Harris Interactive Poll Week Seven: TCU Stays Above Oklahoma, Oregon Claims No. 1

The 113 voters of the Harris Interactive Poll for week seven had a slightly different view on the happenings of the weekend, leaving TCU above Oklahoma in the first BCS-week Harris Poll of the season.

Oregon led the way as in the Coaches’ Poll and took 77 of the 113 available first-place votes. The Poll was missing one voter this week, the poll usually has 114 voters.

Boise State got stronger support in the Harris as they did last week, taking 29 first-place ballots.

TCU (3) and Oklahoma (4) split the rest of the first-place votes, however TCU stayed in front of the Sooners by a slim .011 margin.

Auburn jumps to No. 5, while Ohio State takes a dive to No. 10. The Harris Poll voters too were unable to jump Wisconsin over the Buckeyes despite their head-to-head victory, placing them at No. 11.

Alabama lands at No. 7, giving the SEC three teams in the top ten. The Big Ten has four teams in the top-12.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 17th

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Oregon Ducks 2774 .982
2 Boise State Broncos 2685 .950
3 TCU Horned Frogs 2516 .891
4 Oklahoma Sooners 2486 .880
5 Auburn Tigers 2410 .853
6 LSU Tigers 2164 .766
7 Alabama Crimson Tide 2092 .741
8 Michigan State Spartans 1964 .695
9 Utah Utes 1925 .681
10 Ohio State Buckeyes 1761 .623
11 Wisconsin Badgers 1646 .582
12 Iowa Hawkeyes 1511 .535

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Seven: Coaches Reward Oregon and Boise State

Another week, another No. 1 goes down, this time Ohio State in Madison.

So who takes over for the literally one and done Buckeyes?

In the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, the Oregon Ducks are your new No. 1 team, receiving 42 of the 59 available first place votes.

Boise State lands at No. 2, with 11 first place votes, and a slight lead over No. 3 Oklahoma who got four first-placers.

TCU and Auburn round out the top five and each collected one first-place vote.

Ohio State slides all the way to No. 10 while Wisconsin is right behind them at No. 11.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 17th

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Oregon Ducks 1452 .984
2 Boise State Broncos 1385 .939
3 Oklahoma Sooners 1334 .904
4 TCU Horned Frogs 1300 .881
5 Auburn Tigers 1238 .839
6 LSU Tigers 1132 .767
7 Alabama Crimson Tide 1085 .735
8 Michigan State Spartans 1037 .703
9 Utah Utes 1004 .681
10 Ohio State Buckeyes 936 .636
11 Wisconsin Badgers 867 .588
12 Iowa Hawkeyes 785 .532

Projected BCS Standings: Boise State to Start Atop First BCS Rankings of 2010

Update: The first BCS standings have been released. Take a look HERE.

And you thought last week was chaotic.

Just one week removed from seeing an Alabama team we had grown used to seeing at No. 1 go down, the weekend that will see the season’s first BCS standings was even more unpredictable, and led us into what should be a very interesting BCS portion of the college football season.

First we got a surprise from a previously discounted Texas squad when they shocked a previously undefeated and vaunted Nebraska squad, all while an particularly non-SEC offensive outburst was happening in the marquee SEC matchup of the weekend between Auburn and Arkansas.

Auburn would eventually pull out a C-USA-style victory, 62-43, and have begun to look like the class of the SEC while LSU struggled to separate themselves from FCS McNeese State in a 32-10 victory.

As day turned into night, things got even more interesting.

An unusual night start for the marquee Big Ten matchup of the week between Ohio State and Wisconsin was the stage for what would turn out to be another shocking result.

Seemingly gifted an easy route to the BCS National Championship Game and the No. 1 spot in the nation after Alabama took their tumble last weekend, Ohio State was unable to hang with Wisconsin and fell to the Badgers 31-18.

While that was happening, South Carolina, who unseated Alabama last weekend and looked like a shoe-in for at least the BCS top-12 tomorrow, choked away a victory against Kentucky and will suffer greatly in both the SEC East race and in the BCS standings come tomorrow.

So what can we expect when the first BCS standings of the season come out tomorrow night?

In last week’s simulated BCS rankings, using both the Harris and Coaches’ Poll along with five of the six computers, Boise State was a surprisingly convincing No. 1 and there is no reason to believe that they won’t be there again when the BCS rankings come out tomorrow after they had no trouble with San Jose State.

Just behind them last week was Oregon who although idle will not see its BCS stock hurt very much by its time on the couch after TCU, LSU and Oklahoma all played less than stellar opponents.

If the Ducks were to be hurt, it would have been in the computer and none of those teams directly trailing Oregon last week were in any position to gain ground with the machines.

The Ducks will likely be No. 1 in the human polls come tomorrow, but with Boise State right on its heels as a likely second team on most ballots, it won’t be enough to give them the No. 1 BCS spot tomorrow.

Auburn may have been your big winner this weekend, as a very strong and well respected Arkansas team will prove very valuable in both the computers and the human elements.

Expect Auburn to have a very considerable boost in all three components tomorrow, which will translate into a nice bump in tomorrow’s BCS rankings.

Ohio State will see a fate similar to what the Crimson Tide faced last weekend, and will fall towards the bottom of the BCS top ten. On the flip side, Wisconsin will see themselves reinserted into the national discussion along with Michigan State.

So, here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow night, without any polling information.

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 17th)

Rank Team
1 Boise State Broncos
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Oklahoma Sooners
4 TCU Horned Frogs
5 Auburn Tigers
6 LSU Tigers
7 Michigan State Spartans
8 Ohio State Buckeyes
9 Alabama Crimson Tide
10 Utah Utes
11 Nebraska Cornhuskers
12 Wisconsin Badgers

Projected BCS Bowls – October 17th

Another shocking weekend in college football.

Ohio State, Nebraska and South Carolina all take the tumble to underdogs, which does a number to the projected BCS bowls after week seven.

So who has the easiest road to the BCS bowl games, and more importantly, to the BCS National Championship Game?

Let’s find out.

BCS National Championship Game: Oregon Ducks (BCS No. 1) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (BCS No. 2)

Comment: With Ohio State now out of the picture in the chase for the national championship (at least for the time being), Oklahoma now looks like the team with the best shot to make their way to the BCS National Championship Game.

Oklahoma remained undefeated by crushing Iowa State 52-0 on Saturday night, and with a victory over suddenly relevant again Texas on their resume, they look like an even stronger BCS team.

Oregon continues to look good even without hitting the field on Saturday, and is still in good position to make it to the BCS title game.

Rose Bowl: Boise State Broncos (Automatic at-large selection) vs. Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten Champion)

Comment: Wow.

With Ohio State’s loss and without a chance to get at undefeated Michigan State, don’t be surprised if Michigan State goes undefeated in the conference and takes the Big Ten’s bid to the Rose Bowl.

With the Pac-10 champion Oregon headed to the national title game, Boise State continues to be in good position for this automatic Rose Bowl bid.

Fiesta Bowl: Texas Longhorns (At-large selection) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (At-large selection)

Comment: With Texas’s upset victory over Nebraska, the Longhorns now look like the second best team in the Big 12. It would surprise no one to see Mack Brown bring his Longhorns to yet another 10-win season by running the table the rest of the way.

The Longhorns would likely fall short of the Big 12 title game, but with their only losses coming to Oklahoma and UCLA, they would be an attractive BCS at-large selection.

TCU had a tough time getting away from BYU, but ended up making a strong statement against the always tough Cougars, and continue to look like a good at-large selection.

Orange Bowl: West Virginia Mountaineers (Big East Champion) vs. Florida State Seminoles (ACC Champion)

Comment: The Orange Bowl has a history of taking the Big East and ACC champions, and with the reshuffling of the deck with Alabama and Ohio State’s losses, they might resort to doing just that.

West Virginia looks like the Big East favorite, while Florida State struggled to beat Boston College, but still looks like the class of the ACC.

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes (At-large selection) vs. Auburn Tigers (SEC Champion)

Comment: It’s going to be tough to win the SEC, whoever does it. Auburn looks like the team to beat now, especially after the other undefeated SEC squad, LSU, looked a little iffy trying to put FCS McNeese State away in their 32-10 victory.

Ohio State will not get a shot at the lone remaining Big Ten undefeated, Michigan State, but will still be an attractive BCS at-large team if they can finish the season strong.

ESPN’s 2010 BCS Rankings Release Schedule

As we draw closer to the first BCS standings of the season, timing of the release of each week’s BCS Standings becomes a question on everyone’s mind.

When the BCS was aired exclusively on FOX, we were treated to the announcement of each week’s BCS standings wrapped around FOX’s coverage of the NFL on Sundays.

This often didn’t allow for much analysis from the studio crew, especially because it was often the NFL studio crew announcing the BCS standings, an arrangement which didn’t always benefit the average college football fan.

However, the BCS has returned to ABC/ESPN and for the first time, exclusively on ESPN. This allows the self-proclaimed “World Wide Leader in Sports” to create a show that revolves solely around the BCS standings for us each and every Sunday.

And that’s exactly what they’ve done. Starting on October 17 and ending with the announcement of the final BCS standings on December 5, ESPN will broadcast a “BCS Countdown” each Sunday night at 8:15 p.m. ET.

The 45 minute program will include the release of the new standings, analysis and interviews. At 9 p.m. the program will switch to ESPNU.

So for those of you looking for a release schedule, here it is:

First BCS Standings: October 17th, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN
BCS Week Two: October 24th, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN
BCS Week Three: October 31st, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN
BCS Week Four: November 7th, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN
BCS Week Five: November 14th, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN
BCS Week Six: November 21st, 6:00 p.m. on ESPN
BCS Week Seven: November 28th, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN
Final BCS Standings and BCS Bowl Pairings: December 5th,  8:15 p.m. on ESPN

Remember, as soon as the new rankings are released, turn to BCS Know How for the first shot analysis of the rankings and continuing coverage week to week of the BCS.

And of course, each Saturday night BCS Know How will release its projected BCS rankings, like we’ve been doing for some time with a great rate of success.

Stay tuned!