Simulated BCS Rankings Week Seven: Ohio St., Florida St. Land Comfortably In Top 5 With BCS Looming

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The BCS rankings are looming. Just one week until we enter the final phase of the college football season. And, as if seemingly on queue, the upsets came in droves this weekend.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Florida State Seminoles
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Stanford, Oklahoma, Georgia and Michigan suffered losses at inopportune times, and the simulated BCS rankings reflect the sea change. Sure, Alabama, Oregon and Clemson land in familiar spots, but after that, things get different fast. How are we figuring this out?

  • We’re using the normal method for the Coaches’ and Harris polls, taking vote share, which is explained on our BCS Formula page.
  • We’re also using all available BCS versions of the BCS component computers, which this week includes: Colley’s Matrix, Massey’s BCS, Sagarin, Anderson & Hester and Billingsley. However, we will not remove any of the rankings, as BCS usually does, as to get a better overall sense of where we stand. No need to eliminate when we don’t have the complete picture to begin with. Five computers used means a total possible score of 125 in the component.
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with about 94% accuracy

With just a week before we get a real version of the BCS on the night of Oct. 20, we have a simulated version that’s nearly 100% accurate, and interesting things have begun to happen.

Ohio State and Florida State’s steady climb has finally begun to pay off, as the Buckeyes and Seminoles land at No. 4 and No. 5 respectively. Finally, after weeks of languishing well below their full BCS potential because of weak computers and a bevy of undefeated teams to contend with, the Buckeyes and Seminoles are primed for possible runs at a title game bid.

The next group of contenders is led by teams now well within striking distance if things can fall their way. One-loss No. 6 LSU, No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 10 South Carolina, plus undefeated No. 8 UCLA and No. 9 Louisville fill out the rest of the top 10.

Undefeated Missouri, the darling of the computers with the third-highest overall computer aggregate, lands at No. 13, while new Big 12 frontrunner Baylor lands at No. 11.

Here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the seventh week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — October 14

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9842
2 Oregon Ducks .9387
3 Clemson Tigers .8781
4 Ohio State Buckeyes .8373
5 Florida State Seminoles .8345
6 LSU Tigers .7428
7 Texas A&M Aggies .6920
8 UCLA Bruins .6726
9 Louisville Cardinals .6252
10 South Carolina Gamecocks .5766
11 Baylor Bears .5721
12 Stanford Cardinal .5716
13 Missouri Tigers .5695
14 Miami Hurricanes .5479
15 Georgia Bulldogs .4554
16 Texas Tech Red Raiders .3594

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Harris Interactive Poll Week Seven: Clemson, Ohio State Debut In Top Four In First Harris Poll

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The first Harris Interactive College Football Poll is here, after long last. And though the Harris doesn’t release until seven weeks into the college football season, the results seem pretty standard.

The biggest and most noticeable difference between the Harris and Coaches’ polls is that the Harris elected Clemson a solid No. 3, while the coaches tended to favor Ohio State at No. 3, though had Clemson close behind at No. 4. In the Harris, Ohio State takes the No. 4 spot, with Florida State, Louisville and Texas A&M trailing, as in the Coaches’ Poll.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 13

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2589 .996
2 Oregon Ducks 2501 .962
3 Clemson Tigers 2355 .906
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 2280 .877
5 Florida State Seminoles 2198 .845
6 Louisville Cardinals 1922 .739
7 Texas A&M Aggies 1919 .738
8 LSU Tigers 1914 .736
9 UCLA Bruins 1719 .661
10 Miami Hurricanes 1570 .604
11 South Carolina Gamecocks 1511 .581
12 Stanford Cardinal 1482 .570

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Seven: Stanford, Georgia Clear Out

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A weekend of upsets allowed for the first real shaking of the Coaches’ Poll this week, as Stanford and Georgia’s exit from the top-12 makes room for some interesting story lines and for teams to move into contending position.

Florida State is up to No. 5 this week, while Miami and Baylor land safely inside the top-12, with everyone still chasing No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Oregon.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 13

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1545 .997
2 Oregon Ducks 1485 .958
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 1406 .907
4 Clemson Tigers 1365 .881
5 Florida State Seminoles 1293 .834
6 Louisville Cardinals 1166 .752
7 Texas A&M Aggies 1156 .746
8 LSU Tigers 1098 .708
9 South Carolina Gamecocks 1024 .661
10 UCLA Bruins 999 .645
11 Miami Hurricanes 905 .584
12 Baylor Bears 890 .574

Projected 2014 BCS Bowls — October 13

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Upsets — love ’em or hate ’em, they’re as much a part of college football as is Saturday morning fogginess during “College GameDay.” For the first time in 2013, really, during week seven, we got a handful of truly important ones. And though their outcomes might not have set things in stone, they certainly shuffled things up a bit when it comes to the BCS.

BCS Bowl Projections
Bowl Matchup
Title Game Alabama vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl Stanford vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl LSU vs. Florida State
Orange Bowl Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl Baylor vs. Louisville
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So what’s next for the likes of Georgia and Stanford? What becomes of two teams who were looking fondly toward a BCS berth during the final season of this era? We can only guess, but the outlook for now shifts somewhat dramatically for these teams.

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide (BCS No. 1) vs. Oregon Ducks (BCS No. 2)

Comment: There’s no denying it, Alabama, for all its faults this season, still seems to be the best equipped and ready for a title game run in 2013. Who else can challenge the Tide? Could it be that now, with Stanford out of the way, the best chance at knocking off the reign of the SEC lies in Eugene? Perhaps, and Oregon went about proving their Pac-12 dominance in a victory over Washington.

Rose Bowl: Stanford Cardinal (At-large selection) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten champion)

Comment: The loss to Utah hurts Stanford, it hurts the Cardinal bad. But there is plenty of hope left in Palo Alto for a BCS bowl berth. Even if Stanford is unable to resurrect its title game ambitions with a victory over Oregon later this year, it could be headed to the Rose Bowl if it can solidify itself as a 10-win club in the Pac-12. There will be plenty to deal with, mostly likely UCLA’s resurgence and the possibility of Washington’s continued success, but for now, the Cardinal seem like a strong possibility here.

Sugar Bowl: LSU Tigers (At-large selection) vs. Florida State Seminoles (At-large selection)

Comment: One loss does not a season make. Two losses? Perhaps. The second loss of the season for Georgia could end up being killer, as the Bulldogs might miss an opportunity at a BCS bowl in the era’s last year. LSU’s important win over Florida strengthens the guys from Baton Rouge’s case for a BCS at-large bid to replace the SEC bid in the Sugar Bowl. As for Florida State, the looming battle with Clemson will be telling, but even a loss there would not be world-ending.

Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers (ACC champion) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (At-large selection)

Comment: Clemson has made its name this season as a team led by offensive strikers from around the field. It was no different on Saturday against Boston College, though those strikes were somewhat less often. For Oklahoma, however, the offensive strikes barely came against Texas. Does that mean that the Sooners are down for the count on BCS terms? Not quite yet, but Oklahoma will have to show a bit of resolve to get to another BCS bid, as the trips to Baylor and Oklahoma State laid out in front of the Sooners don’t seem to spell positive things quite yet.

Fiesta Bowl: Louisville Cardinals (AAC champion) vs. Baylor Bears (Big 12 champion)

Comment: Louisville continues its romp though its AAC schedule but must continue to ponder the question whether an undefeated run thought their schedule would spell more than a bid to one of the four non-title game BCS bowls. For Baylor, however, Oklahoma’s loss to Texas sets them up nicely for a Big 12 title, with the opportunity to play all the remaining contenders in the Big 12 chase, including undefeated in conference play Texas and Texas Tech and a showdown with Oklahoma State. Wins could spell a big fiesta for the Bears.