BCS Computer Rankings Week Seven: Stanford Gets the Suppot They Need

Stanford was in an odd position coming into this weekend as a team with support across the board, but an unlikely road to a BCS bowl.

Well with the dominoes that fell over the weekend, Stanford moved up into the No. 5 spot in both human polls.

With the added computer support the Cardinal received this weekend, Stanford rose to No. 4 — the spot which would guarantee the Cardinal of a spot in a BCS bowl — all because of the computer help.

Auburn remains perfect in the computers, and uses that strength added to increased support from the human element to claim the No. 1 spot this week.

So, here’s what the top of each computer ranking looked like:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Seven (November 28th)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 Auburn Auburn Auburn Auburn Auburn Auburn
2 Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon
3 TCU TCU TCU TCU Arkansas TCU
4 Wisconsin Wisconsin Oklahoma Stanford Stanford Stanford
5 Ohio State Boise State Stanford Arkansas LSU Arkansas
6 Oklahoma Ohio State Michigan State LSU TCU LSU

And what the aggregate BCS computer rankings were:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week Seven (November 28th)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1 Auburn Tigers 1.000
2 Oregon Ducks .960
3 TCU Horned Frogs .920
4 Stanford Cardinal .840
5 Arkansas Razorbacks .770
6 Oklahoma Sooners .760
7 Wisconsin Badgers .730
7 LSU Tigers .730
9 Ohio State Buckeyes .660
10 Missouri Tigers .640

Seventh BCS Rankings of 2010: Auburn New No. 1, Stanford Claims Important Fourth Spot

Changes at the top, changes at the middle, developments in a variety of conference championship races — the dominoes certainly started to fall on rivalry weekend, and with a new set of BCS rankings finally out, we can begin to judge the impact.

The changes start at the very top — Auburn retakes the No. 1 spot on the strength of their victory over Alabama, leaping Oregon by a a scant .0002 points to ascend to No. 1.

Auburn made up a big chunk of ground on Oregon in both the Harris Poll and Coaches’ Poll after their thrilling come-from-behind victory over the Tide, which was instrumental in the somewhat unexpected change.

TCU — who seemed to all to be on the verge of losing their No. 3 spot to Boise State — instead retains that position after the Broncos took an unexpected tumble to Nevada.

The Broncos fall all the way to No. 11, and will likely be left out of the BCS picture come bowl selection time, a result of two costly missed field goals.

The positioning at the top is interesting, although the changes have basically no impact on the BCS and national title picture. The changes a little further down, though, have serious implications as we head to the final week.

Stanford is the new No. 4, which is an enviable position to be in without a game remaining on their schedule. If Stanford remains at that spot the Cardinal will automatically qualify for inclusion in the BCS standings as the highest-ranking automatically-qualifying BCS conference member who did not win their own conference’s automatic bid and is in the top our.

Despite being ranked fifth in both human polls, the Cardinal utilized very strong support from all six computers to jump into that all-important No. 4 spot.

The Cardinal are followed by Wisconsin, who does just enough to stay ahead of Ohio State to claim that No. 5 position. The fact that the Badgers held off the Buckeyes is huge, as the BCS standings will be used on December 5th to decide which of the three (Michigan State is the third) Big Ten teams who all claimed a share of the conference crown will be headed to the Rose Bowl. With no games remaining on any of the teams’ schedules, Wisconsin is all but booking their tickets to Pasadena.

A little further down the standings, another conference race was decided by the BCS standings, as the Oklahoma Sooners captured the Big 12 South crown and a Big 12 title game bid by finishing ahead of both Oklahoma State and Texas A&M in this week’s BCS standings. The Sooners will face Nebraska next Saturday for the right to the Big 12’s automatic BCS bowl bid.

So with all of that in mind, here’s this week’s set of BCS rankings:

BCS Standings Week Seven – November 28th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Auburn Tigers .9779
2 Oregon Ducks .9777
3 TCU Horned Frogs .9167
4 Stanford Cardinal .8413
5 Wisconsin Badgers .8185
6 Ohio State Buckeyes .7632
7 Arkansas Razorbacks .7189
8 Michigan State Spartans .6980
9 Oklahoma Sooners .6780
10 LSU Tigers .6067
11 Boise State Broncos .5805
12 Missouri Tigers .5148
13 Nebraska Cornhuskers .5071
14 Oklahoma State Cowboys .4630
15 Virginia Tech Hokies .4396
16 Alabama Crimson Tide .4201

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • The gains that Auburn made were not completely unexpected. If you’ve been following the bowl projections we’ve been doing, you will have seen that next to Auburn we’ve placed “(BCS No. 1),” so this ascension was coming, it only just came a week earlier than expected.
    • Other than the switch at the top, pretty good week, nailed 3-8, switched around 9-11 yet again, my bad.
  • Next weekend will be filled with conference championship games, could BCS drama also be in store? Make sure you stick with BCS Know How throughout the next seven days to get the best end-to-end coverage of everything Bowl Championship Series.

Harris Interactive Poll Week 13: Auburn Closes Gap on Oregon, Wisconsin New No. 4

As in the newest Coaches’ Poll, Stanford and Wisconsin slide into the No. 4 and No. 5 spots in the Harris Interactive Poll after losses by LSU and Boise State.

Auburn also gains ground on Oregon in Harris voting as well, which very likely could be enough to get the Tigers to the No. 1 spot in tonight’s BCS standings.

Arkansas makes a nice jump into the top ten after their victory over LSU, and are the highest ranking two-loss team.

TCU reclaims the No. 3 spot after losing it for a few weeks to Boise State, and will likely be headed to the Rose Bowl if neither Oregon nor Auburn lose next weekend.

Oregon picks up 70 first place votes, while Auburn takes home 42. TCU is left with just two.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – November 28th

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Oregon Ducks 2803 .984
2 Auburn Tigers 2769 .972
3 TCU Horned Frogs 2621 .920
4 Wisconsin Badgers 2441 .856
5 Stanford Cardinal 2417 .848
6 Ohio State Buckeyes 2301 .807
7 Michigan State Spartans 2080 .730
8 Arkansas Razorbacks 1997 .700
9 Oklahoma Sooners 1809 .634
10 Boise State Spartans 1802 .632
11 LSU Tigers 1569 .551
12 Virginia Tech Hokies 1503 .527

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week 13: Stanford and Wisconsin Move Up

Fueled by losses by LSU and Boise State, the Wisconsin Badgers and Stanford Cardinal are rewarded for convincing wins on the weekend, jumping up to No. 4 and No. 5 respectively.

TCU also reclaims the No. 3 spot after seeing it slip through their grasp and into the hands of the Broncos these past few weeks.

Oregon remains the No. 1 team, although they lose some of their lead on the Tigers, who pick up most of the first place votes that the Broncos lost.

Only Oregon, Auburn and TCU receive first-place votes, with the Ducks receiving 46 of the possible 59, Auburn taking 10 and TCU claiming the remaining three.

Boise State falls from No. 3 to No. 10 and LSU falls from No. 6 to No. 12.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – November 28th

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Oregon Ducks 1459 .989
2 Auburn Tigers 1419 .962
3 TCU Horned Frogs 1343 .911
4 Wisconsin Badgers 1282 .869
5 Stanford Cardinal 1233 .836
6 Ohio State Buckeyes 1213 .822
7 Michigan State Spartans 1083 .734
8 Arkansas Razorbacks 1012 .686
9 Oklahoma Sooners 943 .639
10 Boise State Broncos 869 .589
11 Virginia Tech Hokies 843 .572
12 LSU Tigers 796 .539

Projected BCS Rankings: Stanford and Wisconsin Prosper in Seventh BCS Standings

Update: The seventh BCS standings have been released, check them out HERE.

Being down is certainly not the same as being out. If this weekend taught us anything, it should be this.

Auburn and Nevada, both down double-digits in the second half, came all the way back to capture victories over conference rivals — and in Nevada’s case pulled one of the upsets of the season by beating the non-AQ darling Boise State Broncos.

Add a somewhat unexpected victory by Arkansas over LSU and an entertaining edition of the Bedlam game, and rivalry weekend did not disappoint.

But what does it all mean for tomorrow’s BCS standings?

Well, although it won’t be anything truly drastic, changes are certainly in store.

The most important developments start at the spot Boise State had been in possession of these past few weeks — No. 4. With losses by the Broncos and LSU, Stanford is in line to take over that spot.

Now normally moving up two spots is not huge deal in the BCS standings if it isn’t a move into the top two spots — but in this case, its of the utmost importance.

As the highest ranking team from an automatically qualifying BCS conference that will not receive its own conference’s automatic BCS bid, and ranked in the top four, Stanford would be guaranteed a BCS bowl bid.

Poised to take over the next spot at No. 5, Wisconsin is also very interested in maintaining the pecking order from last weekend — as the BCS standings will be used to break a three-way tie created by the Badgers, Ohio State and Michigan State after victories on Saturday and send the winner to the Rose Bowl.

With a cushion to work with, Wisconsin is likely to be ahead of the pack come tomorrow’s standings, and when the final BCS standings are released.

That cushion will certainly come in handy, as Ohio State is likely to land in that No. 6 spot right behind the Badgers, likely making up some ground on the Badgers with some added support from the human side. But with no more games to be played in the Big Ten race, it’s all but over.

After that it’s going to start to get a little messy. The section of the standings that was the domain of one-loss BCS conference teams is sure to be a muddled mess come tomorrow.

Most importantly, that group will include Oklahoma and not Texas A&M or Oklahoma State — giving Oklahoma the Big 12 South title that it needs in order to continue its quest for a BCS bowl bid.

Boise State, who was poised to take over the No. 3 spot with a victory over Nevada, will also likely be in this group, and almost certainly headed for the Boise, Idaho-hosted Humanitarian Bowl.

Arkansas should lead the group of two-loss squads, with their losses coming at the hands of Auburn and Alabama, with Michigan State, Oklahoma, LSU and Missouri tagging along in that same general area.

And as an added bonus, the distance between Oregon and Auburn should continue to be paper thin.

So with all of that in mind, here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Seven (November 28th)

Rank Team
1 Oregon Ducks
2 Auburn Tigers
3 TCU Horned Frogs
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Wisconsin Badgers
6 Ohio State Buckeeys
7 Arkansas Razorbacks
8 Michigan State Spartans
9 Boise State Broncos
10 Oklahoma Sooners
11 LSU Tigers
12 Missouri Tigers

Projected 2011 BCS Bowls – November 28th

[Editor’s Note: This projection is from November 28th, 2010, to see more recent projections, scroll to the bottom of this post.]

The upsets on Thanksgiving were few and far between, but boy were they important when they did happen.

Boise State and LSU see their BCS dreams dashed. Who’s in line to pick up the pieces?

For now, its Stanford and Arkansas.

BCS National Championship Game: Auburn Tigers (BCS No. 1) vs. Oregon Ducks (BCS No. 2)

Comment: Auburn nearly stumbled — as many projected they would — but persevered in the end, beating Alabama by one point and look well set for the BCS national championship game. Oregon took care of Arizona at home to clinch at the very least a Rose Bowl bid.

Both have just one game left on their schedules. Win and we could be in store for a matchup of two of the best offenses in the country.

Rose Bowl: TCU Horned Frogs (At-large selection) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten Champion)

Comment: With Oregon seemingly locked into the BCS title game, TCU — now the lone remaining undefeated non-AQ — will take advantage of the much-discussed Rose Bowl clause which allows for a non-AQ champion to replace a Pac-10 or Big Ten champion playing in the National Title game.

Despite finishing in a three-way tie for the Big Ten title, we continue to project that Wisconsin will be awarded the Big Ten’s Rose Bowl bid by virtue of finishing the season as the highest ranked of the three in the BCS. The Badgers will have to fend off Ohio State and Michigan State in the standings to do so, but this matchup is all but sealed.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners (Big 12 Champion) vs. Connecticut Huskies (Big East Champion)

Comment: With their victory over Oklahoma State in Bedlam, the Sooners forced a three-way tie in the Big 12 South — one which will be broken in tomorrow’s BCS standings. The Sooners will likely be the beneficiary of the tiebreaker and head to the Big 12 title game where they’ll meet up with Nebraska. In what is sure to be an exciting final edition of the Big 12 title game, either team could come out with a win — which would guarantee either team a Fiesta Bowl bid — but we’ll project Oklahoma to ride a wave of emotion to victory.

Connecticut, yes the UConn of basketball fame, has the easiest track to get to the BCS bowl amongst the remaining Big East contenders — beat South Florida and they’re in. After selecting the Big 12 Champion as their host team, the Fiesta Bowl will likely be left with the Big East champion with the final BCS pick after the Orange Bowl passes on the Big East champion in favor of Stanford.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC Champion) vs. Stanford Cardinal (At-large selection)

Comment: Virginia Tech looked every bit the part of ACC champion on Saturday, taking care of Virginia and head to the ACC Championship Game with a chance at an 11-win season.

Stanford was a major beneficiary of the losses by LSU and Boise State. As the projected No. 4 in tomorrow’s BCS standings, the Cardinal will be assured of a BCS bowl bid as an AQ-conference team that did not win its own conference and is ranked within the top four. Its likely that if the Cardinal do automatically qualify for the BCS, the Orange Bowl would be faced with the decision between the Cardinal and the Big East champion — and will choose an attractive 11-1 team over the four- or five-loss Big East champ.

Sugar Bowl: Arkansas Razorbacks (At-large selection) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (At-large selection)

Comment: After topping LSU on Saturday, the Arkansas Razorbacks are now in a solid position to take the SEC’s second BCS bowl bid, replacing title game-bound Auburn in the Sugar Bowl.

Ohio State, despite being left behind in the three-way Big Ten tiebreaker, will look very attractive to the Sugar Bowl as an at-large selection, and they’ll jump at the chance to matchup these two programs with storied histories.