BCS Computer Rankings Week Six: Boise State’s Support Grows

Boise State gets the help they’ve desperately needed these past few weeks in the computers, with more to come.

Their boost for beating Fresno State was nice, and closed the gap between them and the TCU Horned Frogs to a very close .0135 margin.

But the real change to watch will come next week when the Broncos will be assessed on the strength of their win over Nevada as well.

The two wins combined could give the Broncos enough to jump TCU in next week’s BCS standings.

You’ll want to stay tuned for that.

So, here’s what the top of each computer ranking looked like:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Six (November 21st)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 Auburn TCU Auburn Auburn Auburn Auburn
2 Oregon Oregon TCU Oregon Oregon Oregon
3 TCU Boise State LSU Stanford LSU TCU
4 LSU Auburn Boise State TCU Stanford LSU
5 Boise State LSU Oregon LSU TCU Stanford
6 Ohio State Alabama Stanford Boise State Arkansas Boise State

And what the aggregate BCS computer rankings were:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week Six (November 21st)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1 Auburn Tigers 1.000
2 Oregon Ducks .960
3 TCU Horned Frogs .920
4 LSU Tigers .880
5 Boise State Broncos .830
6 Stanford Cardinal .800
7 Oklahoma State Broncos .740
8 Wisconsin Badgers .680
9 Ohio State Buckeyes .640
10 Arkansas Razorbacks .620

Sixth BCS Rankings of 2010: Big Ten and Non-AQ Races Shape Up

Another week gone by of college football without many major upsets, and in turn, a very uneventful BCS release.

But look closer, and you’ll see the seeds of change that are in store for the next few weeks.

Boise State is in position, even at No. 4, to make the move by No. 3 TCU after another weekend of gaining good ground on the Horned Frogs as they sit just .0135 behind TCU after this week.

With a meeting set with Nevada for next weekend, Boise State could make that move back on top of the Horned Frogs and into the No. 3 spot — which not only would assure them of a BCS bowl bid, but would be the first replacement spot for a shot at the BCS title.

The other race to note of course is the Big Ten race, which if it comes down to a three-way tie, will be decided by the BCS standings.

Ohio State takes advantage of Nebraska’s loss over the weekend to slide up a spot, however the Buckeyes still trail the Badgers with one game remaining on each teams’ schedules.

It will be a tough road for Ohio State to make up the ground sitting .05 back with just the one game remaining, but as we’ve seen in the past, anything can happen in the final few weeks of the BCS standings.

Both teams’ computer rankings are slowly creeping up, but the Badger’s computer rating remains .04 ahead of the Buckeyes (.68 to .64) and a victory over Michigan for Ohio State while Wisconsin takes care of Northwestern might not be enough to sway the BCS in the Buckeeys’ favor.

For this week at least, we haven’t got much to talk about in terms of actual changes, but the changes are coming.

You can be sure of that.

So with all of that in mind, here’s this week’s set of BCS rankings:

BCS Standings Week Six – November 21st

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Oregon Ducks .9764
2 Auburn Tigers .9682
3 TCU Horned Frogs .8995
4 Boise State Broncos .8860
5 LSU Tigers .8193
6 Stanford Cardinal .7763
7 Wisconsin Badgers .7688
8 Ohio State Buckeyes .7148
9 Oklahoma State Cowboys .6815
10 Michigan State Spartans .6063
11 Alabama Crimson Tide .6019
12 Arkansas Razorbacks .5697
13 Oklahoma Sooners .5041
14 Missouri Tigers .4564
15 Nebraska Cornhuskers .4423
16 Virginia Tech Hokies .4213

Some thoughts:

Harris Interactive Poll Week 12: Boise State Extends Its Lead on TCU

As in this afternoon’s Coaches’ Poll the Harris Poll looks very similar to last week’s edition, with the only major change coming as a result of Nebraska’s loss to Texas A&M.

Boise State also uses a bye week for TCU and their own convincing win to extend their lead over the Horned Frogs.

Oregon takes 68 of the first-place votes, while Auburn takes 31. Boise gets 14 of their own as opposed to TCU’s single first-place vote.

Stanford also moves up one spot on the strength of their blowout victory over California.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – November 21st

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Oregon Ducks 2793 .980
2 Auburn Tigers 2727 .957
3 Boise State Broncos 2619 .919
4 TCU Horned Frogs 2557 .897
5 Wisconsin Badgers 2295 .805
6 LSU Tigers 2227 .781
7 Stanford Cardinal 2209 .775
8 Ohio State Buckeyes 2131 .748
9 Oklahoma State Cowboys 1805 .633
10 Michigan State Spartans 1797 .631
11 Alabama Crimson Tide 1783 .626
12 Arkansas Razorbacks 1589 .558

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week 12: Little Change at the Top

With little in the way of upsets or surprises over the weekend, the USA Today Coaches’ Poll looks very familiar to the one released last weekend.

Some changes of note occur at the spot that was previously held by Nebraska, which was vacated after the Cornhuskers lost to Texas A&M over the weekend. The Cornhuskers fall all the way from No. 9 to No. 15.

Oregon picks up 48 of the first place votes, while Auburn, Boise State and TCU pick up the rest.

Boise extended its lead over the Horned Frogs to 41 points or about a .039 share.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – November 21st

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Oregon Ducks 1459 .989
2 Auburn Tigers 1398 .948
3 Boise State Broncos 1341 .909
4 TCU Horned Frogs 1300 .881
5 Wisconsin Badgers 1211 .821
6 LSU Tigers 1175 .796
7 Ohio State Buckeyes 1116 .757
8 Stanford Cardinal 1112 .754
9 Oklahoma State Cowboys 990 .671
10 Michigan State Spartans 927 .628
11 Alabama Crimson Tide 885 .600
12 Arkansas Razorbakcs 784 .532

Projected BCS Rankings: Important Positioning At Stake in Sixth BCS Standings

Update: The sixth BCS standings have been released, take a look HERE

A week who’s defining characteristic was that the top three teams in the BCS were sitting at home watching the action should have spelt for a dreary Saturday in college football.

And yes, the day was mostly upset free, however the penultimate weekend in November did not pass without one good upset and the threat of many more.

Texas A&M pulled of the shocker of the night, beating the previously assumed Big 12 favorites Nebraska 9-6 on the power of field goals alone, to give the BCS its major shake of the week.

Other teams, like Ohio State, LSU, Michigan State and Arkansas all had to work to avoid upsets of their own, but got out of the weekend with just the losses already attached to their names.

So what does it all mean for tomorrow’s BCS standings?

Well for the second straight week, not a whole lot, although we do have a top-ten upset to deal with following the weekend’s action.

Spreads will again be affected, although not nearly as much as they were last week. Expect Boise to gain a smidgen of the gap they saw between themselves and TCU last weekend, but the distance should be about the same.

LSU and Stanford should be safe at No. 5 and No. 6 even though the Tigers had a ton of trouble with Ole Miss, while Stanford cruised by California. But after that things will get a little iffy.

The No. 7 spot Wisconsin has held down the past few weeks should be safe, although the Badgers’ fears about Ohio State creeping up to catch them despite a head-to-head victory will become even more straining, as its likely that the Buckeyes will be right at their heels.

Of course this is important because in the event of a three-way tie for the Big Ten title, the BCS standings will act as the tiebreaker, sending the winner to the Rose Bowl as the Big Ten champs.

The key to Wisconsin’s continued lead on the Buckeyes will need to be human poll support. If the Badgers falter in that area, with the relative strength of the Buckeyes’ remaining games, the Badgers could be in trouble. This week, with emphasis put on the results and the ease with which the Badgers won compared to the Buckeyes, they should do enough to stay ahead.

With Ohio State already in front of Nebraska in both polls, its likely that the Buckeyes will not see the gain they might have hoped for after a victory over a top-25 opponent on the road.

Expect the Buckeyes to grab Nebraska’s vacated No. 8 spot, followed rather closely by new Big 12 BCS positioner Oklahoma State, fresh of an easy victory over Kansas.

Alabama, Arkansas, Michigan State and Oklahoma should all vie for spots 10-13 while staying inside the BCS eligibility bubble for this week.

So with all of that in mind, here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 6:00 ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Six (November 21st)

Rank Team
1 Oregon Ducks
2 Auburn Tigers
3 TCU Horned Frogs
4 Boise State Broncos
5 LSU Tigers
6 Stanford Cardinal
7 Wisconsin Badgers
8 Ohio State Buckeyes
9 Oklahoma State Cowboys
10 Alabama Crimson Tide
11 Arkansas Razorbacks
12 Michigan State Spartans

Projected 2011 BCS Bowls – November 21st

[Editor’s Note: This projection is from November 21, 2010. To see more recent projections, scroll to the bottom of this post]

Another week nearly devoid of upsets.

And yet the picture in the Big 12 changed almost completely. What does that do to the projected BCS bowls?

BCS National Championship Game: Auburn Tigers (BCS No. 1) vs. Oregon Ducks (BCS No. 2)

Comment: Both teams had the weekend off, but face stiff tests moving forward if they want to remain in this position as projected combatants for the BCS title.

Auburn needs to get by Alabama and then South Carolina, while Oregon will try to fend off Arizona and Oregon State. A slip up in any of the four remaining games for either team, and the seemingly paved road to Glendale will be more than bumpy.

Rose Bowl: TCU Horned Frogs (At-large selection) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten Champion)

Comment: Of the Big Ten contenders that remain with one loss Wisconsin had by far the easiest time with their opponent (Michigan). Although it might not mean much in the BCS rankings, the distance that the Badgers are putting between themselves and Ohio State and Michigan State should be enough to get them the tiebreaker if the three teams remain tied at the end of the season.

TCU remains in a position to take the automatic bid promised to a non-AQ team if either the Pac-10 or Big Ten champion should head to the BCS title game, although that position will likely be more precarious come the newest BCS rankings, as Boise State may creep even closer. For now, TCU remains in this spot.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State Cowboys (Big 12 Champion) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (Big East Champion)

Comment: Oklahoma State, not Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas or any of the names you’re used to seeing as Big 12 favorites, is now the last remaining one-loss Big 12 team, meaning that if they can get by Oklahoma next weekend, they’ll head to the Big 12 title game, with a berth in the Fiesta Bowl at steak.

Pittsburgh survived another scare from South Florida on Saturday to stay well positioned atop the Big East and in line for what will likely be the final bid placed for a BCS conference champion and automatic bid qualifier.

Orange Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes (At-large selection) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC Champion)

Comment: It wasn’t pretty for the Buckeyes, but they survived the trip to Iowa City, and will likely remain among the most attractive at-large bid teams when the end of the season rolls around.

Virginia Tech cruised by Miami on Saturday to clinch a spot in the ACC title game, and seem destined to make their way to the Orange Bowl as ACC champs.

Sugar Bowl: Boise State Broncos (At-large selection) vs. LSU Tigers (At-large selection)

Comment: The diciest of bowl projections will come in the Sugar Bowl. LSU, as the winner of a back and forth battle with Mississippi State on Saturday, will probably be the most attractive team for the Sugar Bowl to select with their first replacement pick if they lose the SEC champ to the national title game.

The problem comes with selecting the other non-AQ unbeaten (if two should remain). It doesn’t really matter whether its Boise State or TCU, both will  be faced with equally uncertain futures which will rest in the hands of the bowl committees. For now, we’ll project that Boise State fulfills the Sugar Bowl’s need for a national matchup combined with homegrown intensity.