Projected BCS Standings: BCS Becoming More Clear in Sixth Standings of 2013

A week after very nearly knocking off Ohio State from its perch at No. 3, Baylor falls by the wayside with a loss to Oklahoma State. Bad news for the Bears, and good news for the Buckeyes, which can slide comfortably into the No. 3 spot knowing they’re without equal when it comes to a ‘replacement’ pick for the title game.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Ohio State Buckeyes
4	Auburn Tigers
5	Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

Of course, holding those poll positions are Alabama and Florida State, sitting comfortably after a couple of strong wins. After the Buckeyes, however? It’s a mess

Now with more than just a handful of once-beaten teams on the BCS roster, the voters will have some choosing to do. Surprisingly, Oregon no longer counts among the once-beaten after losing to Arizona, but a handful of Tigers, plus many more do still have that one-loss sheen.

Last week’s No. 6, Auburn, likely makes that leap into the top-four, thanking Baylor and Oregon on its way up. After that, Clemson and Missouri will battle it out for No. 5 — that race should be somewhat closer this week than it was last as the voting pieces are placed back to teams somewhat haphazardly.

Oklahoma State and Stanford will in the discussion, too, thanking Texas A&M for not making their lives quite as difficult as they could be.

Oh, and Ohio State could finally get some Big Ten company in the top-12 with the emergence of Michigan State, mostly moving up because other teams are getting out of the way, fast.

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Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Six (November 24th)

Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Ohio State Buckeyes
4	Auburn Tigers
5	Missouri Tigers
6	Clemson Tigers
7	Oklahoma State Cowboys
8	Stanford Cardinal
9	Baylor Bears
10	South Carolina Gamecocks
11	Oregon Ducks
12	Michigan State Spartans

Projected BCS Standings: Baylor Can Make Its Move In Fifth BCS Standings of 2013

Funny how one week’s marquee victory can mean far less given the next weekend’s results. Stanford, a one-loss team that seemingly had it all — an early loss, a big win over a conference rival and top-10 team, and a high BCS ranking above undefeated teams — was unable to hold off USC at the Coliseum, and sees its already slim BCS title hopes falter.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Baylor Bears
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Oregon Ducks
Scroll down for more

Though the Stanford loss is intriguing, especially given the way the Pac-12 could resolve itself this season, the real drama will come at the No. 3 spot.

Baylor will finally see its odd stalling behind a one-loss teams come to an end and will move up. But how far? Can the Bears take the No. 3 spot?

The debate is now front and center. Is Baylor or Ohio State the best replacement pick for a national title game should Alabama or Florida State lose?

The fascinating thing is this — with Stanford’s loss, a lot of computer support becomes readily available for Baylor. As does human poll support. Some team is going to have to pick up those pieces and Ohio State chose the wrong weekend to win ugly against Illinois.

Much of that voter confidence will go Baylor’s way, especially after the Bears posted more than 60 points against formerly hot Texas Tech. And, Baylor already had some computer ground left to make up. This might be the weekend the Bears do it.

So can Baylor take No. 3? We’ll say yes.

Also, added bonus — four top teams, all undefeated? Sounds like a ringing endorsement for the College Football Playoff, right?

The one-loss squads with something to prove, including Oregon and Auburn, will come next. Don’t be surprised to see Auburn make a run at the No. 5 spot, which we’re projecting will be filled by Oregon. Though the Tigers might come up a bit short, a win over high competition like Georgia is likely to net Auburn some ground. Plus, with the ranks of the truly elite teams dwindling, now is the time to take a look at the broader picture

Clemson and Missouri, along with Stanford, will likely make up the rest of the top nine, as last week’s No. 10 South Carolina trailed significantly in its hope to breaking into the top 10.

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Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Five (November 17th)

Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Baylor Bears
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Oregon Ducks
6	Auburn Tigers
7	Clemson Tigers
8	Missouri Tigers
9	Stanford Cardinal
10	South Carolina Gamecocks
11	Texas A&M Aggies
12	Oklahoma State Cowboys

Fourth 2013 BCS Rankings: No. 2 Florida State Solidifies Its Stake

Can a top-five team beating another top-five team truly be considered an upset? Whether the answer is yes or no, Stanford’s victory over Oregon is felt strongly throughout the fourth BCS standings, most notably as Florida State stakes the nation’s strongest claim to No. 2 yet.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Ohio State Buckeyes
4	Stanford Cardinal
5	Baylor Bears
Scroll down for more

After much hair-pulling about whether Oregon or Florida State would finish the season at No. 2 if they won out, it was the Ducks’ faltering on a Thursday night that ended the debate.

Of course, Florida State is far from completing an undefeated run through its schedule, but for now, the Seminoles look like they’re in the driver’s seat for a title game bid, along with the prohibitive favorite Alabama.

The next debate, in the final year of the debate era of college football (also known as the BCS), is who would replace the Seminoles if they were to falter. The BCS, and the country at large, has elected new No. 3 Ohio State for that position. But there are plenty of teams on the tail of the Buckeyes, starting with No. 4 Stanford and No. 5 Baylor.

Yes, the once-beaten Cardinal out pace the undefeated Bears because of their strong support in the computers after beating Oregon. Baylor, which was able to beat top-10 Oklahoma on Thursday, is still lagging in the computer component, and is hurting because of it.

Elsewhere, the BCS buster potential grows this week, as No. 14 Fresno State and No. 15 Northern Illinois continue to climb. They both remain ahead of the top AAC team, UCF, which would allow an automatic bid for a non-AQ team, and the Bulldogs and Huskies are vying for just that.

There’s plenty still to come in this season. Four more sets of these will tell the final story of the 2013 college football season.

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With just four weeks of BCS rankings left ever, we’re in the home stretch. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the fourth BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week Four — November 10th

Rank	Team	BCS Score
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	.9958
2	Florida State Seminoles	.9619
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	.8926
4	Stanford Cardinal	.8689
5	Baylor Bears	.8618
6	Oregon Ducks	.7665
7	Auburn Tigers	.7206
8	Clemson Tigers	.7200
9	Missouri Tigers	.7118
10	South Carolina Gamecocks	.5584
11	Texas A&M Aggies	.5473
12	Oklahoma State Cowboys	.4671
13	UCLA Bruins	.4548
14	Fresno State Bulldogs	.4317
15	Northern Illinois Huskies	.3505
16	Michigan State Spartans	.3417

—

Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • Not bad. Been a up and down few weeks on my end. Thanks for staying tuned.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week 11: Florida State Convincing No. 2

Oregon’s loss allows Florida State to slide easily and convincingly into the No. 2 spot in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, with Ohio State taking the No. 3 spot and Baylor in at No. 4 before one-loss No. 5 Stanford.

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USA Today Coaches’ Poll – November 10

Rank	Team	Votes	Share of Vote
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	1546	.997
2	Florida State Seminoles	1485	.958
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	1401	.904
4	Baylor Bears	1376	.888
5	Stanford Cardinal	1307	.843
6	Clemson Tigers	1164	.751
7	Oregon Ducks	1162	.750
8	Missouri Tigers	1083	.699
9	Auburn Tigers	1069	.690
10	Oklahoma State Cowboys	965	.623
11	Texas A&M Aggies	898	.579
12	South Carolina Gamecocks	830	.535

Projected BCS Standings: FSU Takes Control of Destiny in Fourth BCS Standings of 2013

When faced with some of the most difficult opponents of their season, teams often reveal just how good they are. In the cast of Oregon and Alabama, tests like that came this extended weekend. And for Oregon, the test was not passed.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Ohio State Buckeyes
4	Stanford Cardinal
5	Baylor Bears
Scroll down for more

More importantly, for Florida State, Oregon’s loss means a world of difference for the Seminoles. Is Florida State’s ticket to the BCS title game punched if they can win out? It certainly seems like it given the ranks of the undefeateds shrinks every week and Florida State continues to impress.

That being said, the continuing success of Ohio State and Baylor is something that can’t be ignored, and wont be in the newest BCS rankings, where a cluster of once-beaten teams and undefeated teams will battle for the top spots.

With the win over Oregon, Stanford will likely again be a major factor in the BCS race this weekend, but Oregon’s loss to a top-five team shouldn’t necessarily drop the Ducks completely out of the picture.

This is all well and nice, but the question will be who will be next in line if things don’t go well in the final weeks for presumed No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida State. Will it be the undefeated teams or the one-loss teams with impressive wins?

For now it’s the undefeated Ohio State waiting for that tumble everyone anticipates and wants. But who’s next? We’ll just have to find out.

—

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Four (November 10th)

Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Ohio State Seminoles
4	Stanford Cardinal
5	Baylor Bears
6	Oregon Ducks
7	Clemson Tigers
8	Auburn Tigers
9	Missouri Tigers
10	South Carolina Gamecocks
11	Texas A&M Aggies
12	Oklahoma State Cowboys

2013 BCS implications and strength of schedule worksheet for Week 10

As it has in every college football season under the reign of the BCS, a team’s computer ranking is its most confusing and debate-causing aspect of the entire Bowl Championship Series process.

Which team has accomplished the most when the numbers are all you can see? It’s hard for a sport that includes so much subjectivity to remove the fan/expectation/showmanship aspect from the game and look at only the data.

That’s why here at BCS Know How for the last three years we’ve put together the implication worksheet. Which teams have accomplished the most according to the computers? And what teams still have the opportunity to accomplish more?

So what can you find here? The top eight BCS teams (or smaller, if the “striking distance” shrinks), along with their record and strength of schedule, according to Sagarin.

The real important stats, however, come after that. Each team is listed with key games already played, and key games to come. Key games are any against the BCS top 25 or the Sagarin PURE_ELO top 60. If teams are unlisted in the BCS, they are listed with their Sagarin rank, and all SOS is Sagarin-based.

Games for the upcoming weekend are bolded.

Note: All teams are included in the Sagarin data, including bowl-ineligible and FCS teams. If they count there, they count here. The BCS throws out any FCS or ineligible team when calculating its final tally.

BCS No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) SOS: 41

Key games already played:

• BCS No. 12 Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) SOS: 32 — Won 49-42
• Sagarin No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies (6-2) SOS: 37 — Won 35-10
• Sagarin No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels (5-3) SOS: 2 — Won 25-0
• Sagarin No. 57 Tennessee Volunteers (4-4) SOS: 5 — Won 45-10

Key games remaining:

• BCS No. 11 Auburn Tigers (7-1) SOS: 51 — Nov. 30
• BCS No. 13 LSU Tigers (7-2) SOS: 30 — Nov. 9
• SEC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

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BCS No. 2 Oregon Ducks (6-0) SOS: 16

Key games already played:

• BCS No. 20 UCLA Bruins (5-2) SOS: 28 — Won 42-14
• Sagarin No. 36 Washington Huskies (5-3) SOS: 16 — Won 45-24
• Sagarin No. 47 Washington State Cougars (4-4) SOS: 15 — Won 62-38
• Sagarin No. 57 Tennessee Volunteers (4-4) SOS: 5 — Won 59-14

—

Key games remaining:

• BCS No. 5 Stanford Cardinal (7-1) SOS: 9 — Nov. 7
• Sagarin No. 28 Oregon State Beavers (6-2) SOS: 60 — Nov. 29
• Sagarin No. 34 Arizona Wildcats (5-2) SOS: 55 — Nov. 23
• Pac-12 Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

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BCS No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0) SOS: 68

Key games already played:

• BCS No. 8 Clemson Tigers (7-1) SOS: 39 — Won 51-14
• Sagarin No. 46 Pittsburgh Panthers (4-3) SOS: 42 — Won 41-13
• Sagarin No. 56 FCS Bethune-Cookman (7-1) SOS: 190 — Won 54-6

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Key games remaining:

• BCS No. 7 Miami Hurricanes (7-0) SOS: 82 — Nov. 2
• Sagarin No. 31 Florida Gators (4-3) SOS: 14 — Nov. 30
• ACC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

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BCS No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0) SOS: 69

Key games already played:

• BCS No. 24 Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) SOS: 90 — Won 31-24
• Sagarin No. 39 Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3) SOS: 43 — Won 34-24
• Sagarin No. 45 Buffalo Bulls (6-2) SOS: 138 — Won 40-20
• Sagarin No. 53 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-3) SOS: 36 — Won 63-14

—

Key games remaining:

• BCS No. 21 Michigan Wolverines — Nov. 30
• Big Ten Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

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BCS No. 5 Stanford Cardinal (7-1) SOS: 9

Key games already played:

• BCS No. 20 UCLA Bruins (5-2) SOS: 28 — Won 24-10
• Sagarin No. 28 Oregon State Beavers (6-2) SOS: 60 — Won 20-12
• Sagarin No. 30 Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) SOS: 12 — Won 42-28
• Sagarin No. 36 Washington Huskies (5-3) SOS: 16 — Won 31-28
• Sagarin No. 47 Washington State Cougars (4-4) SOS: 15 — Won 55-17

—

Key games remaining:

• BCS No. 2 Oregon Ducks (6-0) SOS: 16 — Nov. 7
• Sagarin No. 25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2) SOS: 27 — Nov. 30
• Sagarin No. 49 USC Trojans (5-3) SOS: 23 — Nov. 16
• Pac-12 Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

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BCS No. 6 Baylor Bears (7-0) SOS: 96

Key games already played:

• None

—

Key games remaining:

• BCS No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) SOS: 44 — Nov. 7
• BCS No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1) SOS: 79 — Nov. 16
• BCS No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) SOS: 52 — Nov. 23
• Sagarin No. 27 Texas Longhorns (5-2) SOS: 13 — Dec. 7

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BCS No. 7 Miami Hurricanes (6-1) SOS: 33

Key games already played:

• Sagarin No. 31 Florida Gators (4-3) SOS: 14 — Won 21-16
• Sagarin No. 38 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-3) SOS: 35 — Won 45-30

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Key games remaining:

• BCS No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0) SOS: 68 — Nov. 2
• Sagarin No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies (6-2) SOS: 37 — Nov. 9
• Sagarin No. 46 Pittsburgh Panthers (4-3) SOS: 42 — Nov. 29
• Sagarin No. 54 Duke Blue Devils (6-2) SOS: 80 — Nov. 16
• ACC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

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BCS No. 8 Clemson Tigers (5-0) SOS: 9

Key games already played:

• BCS No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0) SOS: 68 — Lost 51-14
• Sagarin No. 26 Georgia Bulldogs (4-3) SOS: 1 — Won 38-35

—

Key games remaining:

• BCS No. 14 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) SOS: 11 — Nov. 30
• Sagarin No. 38 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-3) SOS: 35 — Nov. 14
• ACC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

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Second 2013 BCS Rankings: Oregon Laps Florida State For No. 2 After One Week

The fight at the top of the BCS rankings got a little less competitive just one week after Oregon lagged behind Florida State by just .003 in the BCS for No. 2 last week.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Oregon Ducks
3	Florida State Seminoles
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

Yes, after one week of simmering controversy over the fact that Florida State was No. 2 in the BCS but No. 3 in both polls, Oregon storms right ahead of the Seminoles for the No. 2 spot. And it’s not nearly as close this week.

A strong showing in the computers gives Oregon the No. 2 spot by more than .030, more than 10 times the lead Florida State had last weekend. Can Florida State make up that ground? That’ll be the question moving forward.

After Missouri’s loss this weekend, we were expecting some shifting in the next part of the BCS, but unexpectedly, Stanford’s showing across the board was enough to push the one-loss Cardinal past undefeated Baylor to No. 5, while Baylor rests at No. 6. Baylor was largely unable to close the gap on Stanford in the computers, lagging .19 behind the Cardinal in the computer aggregate, which was enough to give Stanford No. 5.

Miami bows at No. 7, Clemson is in at No. 8 and Missouri falls only four spots to No. 9 after losing to South Carolina, which themselves climbs a handful of spots, but nearly as many as we had anticipated.

Oklahoma is back into the top-10 at No. 10, while Auburn is steady at No. 11 and Texas A&M rounds out the top 12 after climbing four impressive spots in one week.

Of interest — No. 16 Fresno State stays one spot ahead of No. 17 Northern Illinois for the second straight week, as expected. Can the Bulldogs hold off the Huskies in a year where a BCS buster seems all the more likely? It’ll be a chase to the spot if both finish undefeated.

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With just six weeks of BCS rankings left ever, we’re in the most important stretch of the season. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the second BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week Two — October 27th

Rank	Team	BCS Score
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	.9937
2	Oregon Ducks	.9517
3	Florida State Seminoles	.9211
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	.8840
5	Stanford Cardinal	.7918
6	Baylor Bears	.7645
7	Miami Hurricanes	.7560
8	Clemson Tigers	.6687
9	Missouri Tigers	.6096
10	Oklahoma Sooners	.6064
11	Auburn Tigers	.6025
12	Texas A&M Aggies	.4812
13	LSU Tigers	.4630
14	South Carolina Gamecocks	.4486
15	Texas Tech Red Raiders	.3749
16	Fresno State Bulldogs	.3669

—

Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • Well, landed the top four easily, Stanford surprises slightly at No. 5, with Baylor at No. 6. Not great on the South Carolina/Missouri switcheroo, expected a little more change in the wind.
• Another week, another change in Sagarin’s BCS formula. Fun!

Projected BCS Standings: Oregon To Claim No. 2 In Second BCS Standings of 2013

Time seems to run out slowly when you’re making a chase for a BCS bid. Whether it’s on the clock to hold on to the last-second victory or the weeks ticking slowly by in the last BCS year.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Oregon Ducks
3	Florida State Seminoles
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

Teams from around the country had little trouble dispatching of less difficult foes, but for a few teams, the time needed to get victories on Saturday must have seemed to move extra slow.

And in the case of Missouri, a crushing loss was probably already a death sentence for the season as far as a national title game bid is concerned.

So what else, if anything, did we learn this week? Mostly that the nation’s top BCS teams in its first iteration — Alabama, Oregon and Florida State — are very good. This week, like last week, we’ll see a fight to the finish for No. 2 between Oregon and Florida State.

The better victory this week belongs to the Ducks and not the Seminoles, and with that in mind, expect Oregon to make enough headway in the computers and the human polls to end the Seminoles one-week run at No. 2. Oregon is projected to take back that spot this week.

Elsewhere, the Ducks’ Pac-12 mates Stanford and Big 12 surprise Baylor will be the likely beneficiaries of the Missouri loss, as the Cardinal and Bears will fight for the No. 5 spot, along with Miami. Also look out for Oklahoma, fresh off a victory over previous No. 10 Texas Tech.

An interesting fight is also breaking out between Fresno State and Northern Illinois. Fresno State might remain ahead of Northern Illinois after the Bulldogs finished of San Diego State in OT and the Huskies had an easy victory, mostly because of the lateness of Fresno’s game. But the truly interesting part will come when the BCS rankings wind down. Who will be in front? For now we’re projecting that the Huskies will, even with Fresno possibly taking these first two weeks as the leader in the BCS buster clubhouse.

It’ll all be somewhat familiar when the second BCS rankings are released tomorrow, but with some changes that could play into the chase for the title game when the season winds up. The minutia becomes all the more important this time of year. Good thing we’re here to take a look at it.

—

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Two (October 27)

Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Oregon Ducks
3	Florida State Seminoles
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Stanford Cardinal
6	Baylor Bears
7	Miami Hurricanes
8	Clemson Tigers
9	Oklahoma Sooners
10	South Carolina Gamecocks
11	Missouri Tigers
12	Auburn Tigers

First 2013 BCS Rankings: Alabama & FSU Lead Gang Into The Final Year

 

Just one BCS standings in and we already have a rumble at the top on our hands — the BCS isn’t going to leave without a fight.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Oregon Ducks
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

As expected, No. 2 Florida State  and No. 2 Oregon bunch together tightly in the race for the No. 2 spot in the inaugural BCS standings of 2013, both chasing convincing No. 1 Alabama.

The Seminoles’ victory over Clemson combined with Oregon’s long-standing position as the nation’s No. 2 team conspired to provide us with some real drama that could continue to play out the rest of the season if the two squads continue to win.

Oregon remained at No. 2 in the polls, but Florida State took full advantage of some major upsets around the board, grabbing the best computer support in the country and No. 3 in both the Coaches’ and Harris polls. For now, Florida State lands just .0028 ahead of Oregon.

If Florida State had received even a .01 smaller share of the computer rankings, Oregon would have been your No. 2 team this week.

But what if the Ducks and Seminoles don’t keep winning? The first BCS standings have given us a window into what we could expect. Ohio State’s almost quiet No. 4 comes as no surprise, as the Buckeyes have run through the early part of the season undefeated.

No. 5 Missouri and No. 8 Baylor are some of the handful of surprises in the first set of BCS rankings, as is No. 7 Miami. All three teams were the beneficiaries of the upset-filled weekend, and Missouri carries a very strong computer ranking into the BCS part of the season.

—

We’re in the home stretch now, believe it or not. Just seven weeks left of the BCS. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the first BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week One — October 20th

Rank	Team	BCS Score
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	.9841
2	Florida State Seminoles	.9348
3	Oregon Ducks	.9320
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	.8553
5	Missouri Tigers	.8219
6	Stanford Cardinal	.7414
7	Miami Hurricanes	.7200
8	Baylor Bears	.7120
9	Clemson Tigers	.6249
10	Texas Tech Red Raiders	.6220
11	Auburn Tigers	.5058
12	UCLA Bruins	.4807
13	LSU Tigers	.4552
14	Virginia Tech Hokies	.4408
15	Oklahoma Sooners	.4204
16	Texas A&M Aggies	.3666

—

Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • Well, we predicted the margin, but got the order wrong. Florida State in at No. 2, just ahead of projected No. 2 Oregon, which actually gets the No. 3 slot. That’ll be a nice toss-up for the next few weeks.
• It’s fascinating what’s happening with Jeff Sagarin’s ratings over at USA Today. Did he change his formula? The clues point to yes, says Jerry Palm.

Projected BCS Standings: FSU, Oregon Already Jockeying For No. 2 In First BCS Standings of 2013

What is it that you don’t like about the BCS? The time to complain is kind of running out … this week marks the beginning of the end for the system, the era and the formula as we know it.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Oregon Ducks
3	Florida State Seminoles
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

And wouldn’t you know it, on our very first weekend of our very last BCS year, we’re going to get some drama right off the bat. There’s no doubt what victory this weekend was the most impressive, that’s Florida State with a big win over previous No. 3 Clemson.

And yet, we have last week’s and this young season’s No. 2, Oregon, as dominating as ever, still undefeated and still putting up huge performances week after week. So which will be No. 2 when the BCS is finally released tomorrow?

Well, one of the things people have enjoyed complaining about most in this era of the BCS is voter laziness. And though tomorrow will likely show a nice push toward supporting Florida State’s superb record thus far, we’re projecting that it will be Oregon at No. 2 when the BCS is released on the strength of the voter support that remains in the Ducks’ camp. Even with the expected bump in computer poll support, Florida State might still end up just short of Oregon.

That might quell some of the traditional anger that could be associated with a shock like Florida State at No. 2 after barely cracking the top five at all this year. But even if Florida State does make up the minuscule ground they’re projected to still be lacking against Oregon (currently less than .0030 points) — the future is actually brighter in Oregon’s corner. This is a conversation will hold some water for much of the rest of the season if the teams keep reeling off wins.

Elsewhere, expect surprise powers Baylor, Missouri and Miami to be dancing inside the top 12 this week, with Baylor and Missouri taking cracks at the top five spots, where as they were outside that potential territory just a week ago. Teams like UCLA, LSU, Clemson, Louisville, South Carolina and Texas A&M will suffer for poorly timed losses on this first BCS weekend of 2013, though bounce backs are more than possible for most of those teams, including for Stanford, which dispatched of UCLA.

We’re in it for final time this year. It’s going to get even more interesting than this, and we’re going to be covering it all. Strap if for one hell of a last ride.

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Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 20)

Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Oregon Ducks
3	Florida State Seminoles
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Missouri Tigers
6	Baylor Bears
7	Stanford Cardinal
8	Clemson Tigers
9	Miami Hurricanes
10	LSU Tigers
11	UCLA Bruins
12	Texas A&M Aggies