Projected BCS Standings: FSU, Oregon Already Jockeying For No. 2 In First BCS Standings of 2013

BCSWeek1

What is it that you don’t like about the BCS? The time to complain is kind of running out … this week marks the beginning of the end for the system, the era and the formula as we know it.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

And wouldn’t you know it, on our very first weekend of our very last BCS year, we’re going to get some drama right off the bat. There’s no doubt what victory this weekend was the most impressive, that’s Florida State with a big win over previous No. 3 Clemson.

And yet, we have last week’s and this young season’s No. 2, Oregon, as dominating as ever, still undefeated and still putting up huge performances week after week. So which will be No. 2 when the BCS is finally released tomorrow?

Well, one of the things people have enjoyed complaining about most in this era of the BCS is voter laziness. And though tomorrow will likely show a nice push toward supporting Florida State’s superb record thus far, we’re projecting that it will be Oregon at No. 2 when the BCS is released on the strength of the voter support that remains in the Ducks’ camp. Even with the expected bump in computer poll support, Florida State might still end up just short of Oregon.

That might quell some of the traditional anger that could be associated with a shock like Florida State at No. 2 after barely cracking the top five at all this year. But even if Florida State does make up the minuscule ground they’re projected to still be lacking against Oregon (currently less than .0030 points) — the future is actually brighter in Oregon’s corner. This is a conversation will hold some water for much of the rest of the season if the teams keep reeling off wins.

Elsewhere, expect surprise powers Baylor, Missouri and Miami to be dancing inside the top 12 this week, with Baylor and Missouri taking cracks at the top five spots, where as they were outside that potential territory just a week ago. Teams like UCLA, LSU, Clemson, Louisville, South Carolina and Texas A&M will suffer for poorly timed losses on this first BCS weekend of 2013, though bounce backs are more than possible for most of those teams, including for Stanford, which dispatched of UCLA.

We’re in it for final time this year. It’s going to get even more interesting than this, and we’re going to be covering it all. Strap if for one hell of a last ride.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 20)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
6 Baylor Bears
7 Stanford Cardinal
8 Clemson Tigers
9 Miami Hurricanes
10 LSU Tigers
11 UCLA Bruins
12 Texas A&M Aggies

Projected BCS Standings: Notre Dame Set For No. 3 Spot In Third BCS Rankings of 2012

It seemed like every time you blinked Saturday, another undefeated, ranked team fell. It was almost contagious. The result? A set of BCS rankings that will not resemble anything we’ve seen to this point.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

With one key exception, of course, Alabama at No. 1. There no doubt there, but after that, the shocks get going, and get going quickly.

And yes, when the BCS rankings are released tomorrow, Oregon is likely in store for yet another shocker.

With Alabama a steady No. 1 and Kansas State up to a more comfortable No. 2 than Florida had enjoyed, Notre Dame will sneak by the Ducks, which seem to be in the slow lane of the BCS highway.

Passing to the Ducks’ left will be the Irish, on the strength of the computer boost they’ll see because of a victory over a strong computer-profiled Oklahoma squad. But with an already sturdy computer ranking, Notre Dame’s prize for a victory over the Sooners will truly be in the human element. Notre Dame is likely to eat up a big portion of the votes that went the Gators’ way because of their primetime showing. That will be enough to make up the .04 deficit to the Ducks the Irish saw last weekend, and good enough for No. 3.

So Oregon lands at No. 4, trailed by No. 5 Georgia, which charges hard into the top five with a victory over Florida. LSU and Florida keep themselves in the conversation at No. 6 and No. 7, respectively. Then things get interesting.

The teams that used to occupy the spots to come — Oregon State, Oklahoma, USC — all lost. So we’re going to see a real shakeup here. First in line tomorrow will be South Carolina, the beneficiary of already strong computer support, and, let’s face it, some room to move up with the losses around the country.

Florida State, having trouble with their computer ratings, climb to No. 9, and could be higher if not for really weak computer support. Oklahoma lost, yes, but anyone that watched the game knows the final score did not reflect the game itself, and the Sooners should land softly within the top 10 this week despite a second loss.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Three (October 28)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 LSU Tigers
7 Florida Gators
8 South Carolina Gamecocks
9 Florida State Seminoles
10 Oklahoma Sooners
11 Louisville Cardinals
12 Oregon State Beavers

Projected BCS Standings: Kansas State climbs to No. 3 in second BCS rankings of 2012

Just two weeks into the BCS standings and the chase is on — it’s more than certain. That’s just what a weekend full of strong statement victories from the nation’s best will get you.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida Gators
3 Kansas State Wildcats
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Scroll down for more

So, are there any surprises in store for the second BCS rankings? Not many. But one could be on its way near the top.

When the first set of rankings were released, many were confused by an Oregon team that landed at No. 3. Somewhat a victim of not playing the weekend before and big victories from Florida and Kansas State, the Ducks landed at the unenviable position of the No. 3 spot in the BCS.

One weekend later, could they be headed down a spot again? They certainly wont be able to catch a Florida team coming off of a victory over previously BCS No. 7 South Carolina.

But more importantly, Kansas State registered a big victory over West Virginia. And not only that, it was box score big — important given voters habits. Votes will be split among the Gators, Ducks and Wildcats more strongly than they were last weekend. Combined with only slightly improved computer rankings, it could mean another knock down for Oregon and a bump up for Kansas State.

But there shouldn’t be much worry in Eugene. Games await the Ducks against USC and the surprisingly undefeated (and tomorrow’s likely BCS No. 7) Oregon State. Oregon has more than enough power to climb back to the No. 2 spot if the Ducks remain undefeated.

From there on down there isn’t a whole lot of shock to go around. LSU is likely to see a nice bump from a victory over Texas A&M, but is likely be unable to catch Notre Dame at No. 5. South Carolina’s loss sends them tumbling, allowing Oregon State, Oklahoma and USC to all climb up a spot.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Two (October 21)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida Gators
3 Kansas State Wildcats
4 Oregon Ducks
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6 LSU Tigers
7 Oregon State Beavers
8 Oklahoma Sooners
9 USC Trojans
10 Mississippi State Bulldogs
11 Georgia Bulldogs
12 South Carolina Gamecocks

Projected BCS Standings: Alabama, Oregon to lead the way in first BCS rankings of 2012

For the football played, the losses suffered and wins gained, how much have we actually learned about the contenders from opening weekend to today?

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida Gators
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Kansas State Wildcats
Scroll down for more

Weekend to weekend, the upsets have occurred, but we stand at the precipice of the season’s first BCS rankings seeing the same kind of BCS déjà vu. For better or worse much will be familiar in Sunday’s first BCS rankings of the year.

An SEC team will debut at the top of the BCS. Alabama has made that much certain with the way they’ve run the table thus far this year. Relatively shoddy (fourth or fifth as opposed to first) computer support leading up to the first BCS rankings should be of no concern to Alabama’s hopes or the Tide faithful. Play like this against the SEC, and the spot so familiar to the Tide at this point will remain their’s.

Chasing the Tide is a group so wide that the season will have plenty of intrigue down the stretch. First among the contenders is, unsurprisingly, No. 2 Oregon, which enjoys a wide-spread support among pollsters and growing support in the computers as the season progresses. Again, the recipe for the Ducks (you may need to read that twice) is to win out to make the championship game.

The real intrigue will likely start at No. 3. The two combatants? Familiar names, but unfamiliar in recent seasons to the BCS conversation — Notre Dame and Florida. Both enjoy heavy support in the computers. And with West Virginia and South Carolina out of the way in the human elements, the two will battle tightly for the No. 3 spot tomorrow. Either could take it. For now, let’s go with the SEC’s wider-spread support in the computers and among voters to give the Gators the edge they’ll need to grab the No. 3 spot.

The Big 12 deposits a few teams in the top 12 tomorrow, starting with the conference’s lone remaining undefeated, Kansas State. The Wildcats could easily claim the fifth spot, chased by the top-tier group of one-lossers. That group includes South Carolina, LSU and Oklahoma, all of which will be rewarded heavily for staying mostly on course — and having some key wins across the board in recent weeks (South Carolina over Georgia, LSU over South Carolina, Oklahoma over Texas). Any of those three could land in the spots six through nine. But for now, the SEC teams will still get the benefit of the doubt.

So we come to the symbolic midway point of the college football season — the first BCS rankings. Are there many surprises? No. But the intrigue remains. You’ll want to stay tuned.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 14)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida Gators
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Kansas State Wildcats
6 LSU Tigers
7 South Carolina Gamecocks
8 Oregon State Beavers
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 USC Trojans
11 West Virginia Mountaineers
12 Georgia Bulldogs

Projected BCS Standings: Alabama to Debut at No. 1 in the First BCS Rankings of 2011

Undefeated teams being weeded out by lesser opponents, top teams feeling the pressure early and late and everyone from Eugene to Tuscaloosa hyped about human poll rankings and decimal points on a computer scale? Must almost be time for the first BCS rankings of the year.

With plenty of intriguing and exciting games thus far this season, the upheaval we’ve become accustomed to in the college football landscape isn’t gone — but it certainly hasn’t been quite the same this year.

Alabama, LSU and Oklahoma make up a trio of undoubtedly the strongest tier of teams in the nation, and that will be reflected in tomorrow’s BCS rankings. Teams such as Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Boise State and Stanford are right behind them.

With the first rankings due out tomorrow, many might wonder the implications of the top teams in the nation and where they land. The truth of the matter, of course, is that they wont matter much.

Alabama and LSU are set to play Nov. 5, and if both remain undefeated until that time, well, it doesn’t matter even a bit where they land any of the next few weeks in these BCS rankings. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are also looking forward to a Bedlam with national title implications, and undefeated Sooners and Cowboys come Dec. 3 could easily mean two de facto national semifinals a whole month apart.

So does it matter where they land Sunday? Nope, but it’s intriguing all the same.

LSU topped last week’s first Harris Poll, while Oklahoma continued to ride high in the Coaches’ element. To round out the trio, Alabama topped three of the available computer polls to LSU and Oklahoma’s one a piece. So who comes out on top this week?

One thing’s for certain. It’s going to be close. And it might come down to the slight changes in the computer polls, as we’ve seen human pollsters be somewhat stubborn this season in moving teams around, even if they don’t look the part of their ranking in victories.

As far as the computers are concerned, LSU’s victory over Tennessee is the strongest of the three victories on the weekend, while the Tigers’ victory over Oregon looks better by comparison after the Ducks topped Arizona State on Saturday. Alabama’s victory over Arkansas also looks better every week.

So the calculation is close. How close? Right now, the difference between the three is miniscule, about .007 actually. Any slight change could spell any of the three taking No. 1 tomorrow.

It’s anyone’s for the taking. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of all of the computers, human polls and everything in between.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 16th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 LSU Tigers
3 Oklahoma Sooners
4 Oklahoma State Cowboys
5 Boise State Broncos
6 Wisconsin Badgers
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Stanford Cardinal
9 Oregon Ducks
10 Arkansas Razorbacks
11 South Carolina Gamecocks
12 Kansas State Wildcats

Projected BCS Standings: Boise State to Start Atop First BCS Rankings of 2010

Update: The first BCS standings have been released. Take a look HERE.

And you thought last week was chaotic.

Just one week removed from seeing an Alabama team we had grown used to seeing at No. 1 go down, the weekend that will see the season’s first BCS standings was even more unpredictable, and led us into what should be a very interesting BCS portion of the college football season.

First we got a surprise from a previously discounted Texas squad when they shocked a previously undefeated and vaunted Nebraska squad, all while an particularly non-SEC offensive outburst was happening in the marquee SEC matchup of the weekend between Auburn and Arkansas.

Auburn would eventually pull out a C-USA-style victory, 62-43, and have begun to look like the class of the SEC while LSU struggled to separate themselves from FCS McNeese State in a 32-10 victory.

As day turned into night, things got even more interesting.

An unusual night start for the marquee Big Ten matchup of the week between Ohio State and Wisconsin was the stage for what would turn out to be another shocking result.

Seemingly gifted an easy route to the BCS National Championship Game and the No. 1 spot in the nation after Alabama took their tumble last weekend, Ohio State was unable to hang with Wisconsin and fell to the Badgers 31-18.

While that was happening, South Carolina, who unseated Alabama last weekend and looked like a shoe-in for at least the BCS top-12 tomorrow, choked away a victory against Kentucky and will suffer greatly in both the SEC East race and in the BCS standings come tomorrow.

So what can we expect when the first BCS standings of the season come out tomorrow night?

In last week’s simulated BCS rankings, using both the Harris and Coaches’ Poll along with five of the six computers, Boise State was a surprisingly convincing No. 1 and there is no reason to believe that they won’t be there again when the BCS rankings come out tomorrow after they had no trouble with San Jose State.

Just behind them last week was Oregon who although idle will not see its BCS stock hurt very much by its time on the couch after TCU, LSU and Oklahoma all played less than stellar opponents.

If the Ducks were to be hurt, it would have been in the computer and none of those teams directly trailing Oregon last week were in any position to gain ground with the machines.

The Ducks will likely be No. 1 in the human polls come tomorrow, but with Boise State right on its heels as a likely second team on most ballots, it won’t be enough to give them the No. 1 BCS spot tomorrow.

Auburn may have been your big winner this weekend, as a very strong and well respected Arkansas team will prove very valuable in both the computers and the human elements.

Expect Auburn to have a very considerable boost in all three components tomorrow, which will translate into a nice bump in tomorrow’s BCS rankings.

Ohio State will see a fate similar to what the Crimson Tide faced last weekend, and will fall towards the bottom of the BCS top ten. On the flip side, Wisconsin will see themselves reinserted into the national discussion along with Michigan State.

So, here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow night, without any polling information.

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 17th)

Rank Team
1 Boise State Broncos
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Oklahoma Sooners
4 TCU Horned Frogs
5 Auburn Tigers
6 LSU Tigers
7 Michigan State Spartans
8 Ohio State Buckeyes
9 Alabama Crimson Tide
10 Utah Utes
11 Nebraska Cornhuskers
12 Wisconsin Badgers