Simulated BCS Rankings Week Three: Ohio State Enters Top Five, Florida State Climbing

biggerbcslogo

Like in years past, it takes a certain kind of result to truly convince everyone that the top preseason teams are truly worth of the spot. In recent years, those teams have often included Alabama and Oregon, and like in these past couple of years, the Crimson Tide and Ducks passed that early test.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Ohio State Buckeyes
Scroll down for more

The respective victories over Texas A&M and Tennessee in week three staked Alabama and Oregon to a large lead in the early simulations of the BCS rankings. In fact, the distance between Alabama and Oregon, which is still around a sizable .04, is less than a third of the gap between Oregon and No. 3 Clemson.

How did we figure these simulated BCS rankings out? We made the following changes to the BCS formula, to account for the pieces we have and the pieces we’re missing:

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’re ONLY using the available, reasonably well-connected and up-to-date BCS computers, which at this point is just Massey’s non-BCS, Sagarin’s and Billingsley’s rankings. You’ll notice that at this point, “well-connected” means computer systems with a preseason bias and component. As the season progresses we can eliminate those rankings which hold such a bias as the teams become well-connected in 2013 alone.
  • Available computers, but not included: Massey’s BCS and Colley’s Matrix.
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with 50% accuracy

You might have noticed that Stanford and Clemson flip-flop again this week, thought their differences are small when you look at the bound either team would have to make an impact on the top two squads in the country.

Weeks of lingering in the lower regions of the computer rankings continues for Ohio State, but the Buckeyes are finally able to leap into the top five at No. 5 — up one spot — despite it’s much higher viewing in the polls.

LSU and Florida State also improve their lots, as LSU is up one spot and Florida State up two as we reach the halfway point in the first month of the season. Plenty of football to be played before the first BCS standings, but it’s a fun exercise…

Here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the third week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — September 16

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9951
2 Oregon Ducks .9561
3 Clemson Tigers .8167
4 Stanford Cardinal .7939
5 Ohio State Buckeyes .7562
6 LSU Tigers .7464
7 Florida State Seminoles .7278
8 Georgia Bulldogs .7200
9 Texas A&M Aggies .6890
10 Oklahoma State Cowboys .5837
11 Louisville Cardinals .5830
12 South Carolina Gamecocks .5746
13 Oklahoma Sooners .5653
14 UCLA Bruins .4874
15 Michigan Wolverines .3713
16 Miami Hurricanes .3249

Advertisements

Simulated BCS Rankings Week Two: Stanford Hops To No. 3, Michigan Up To No. 12

biggerbcslogo

While No. 1 Alabama rested at home in the second weekend of the 2013 season, things in the Crimson Tide’s own conference and around the country got a bit of a rattling.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Stanford Cardinal
4 Clemson Tigers
5 Texas A&M Aggies
Scroll down for more

Georgia, which dropped a tough game to Clemson last weekend, rebounded with a victory over top-10 South Carolina, reviving their BCS strength and giving Clemson’s win all the more luster.

And yet, the Tigers fall a spot in the BCS, landing just behind No. 3 Stanford in this week’s simulated BCS rankings after the Cardinal made their season debut Saturday.

How did we figure these out? We made the following changes to the BCS formula, to account for the pieces we have and the pieces we’re missing:

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’re ONLY using the available, reasonably well-connected and up-to-date BCS computers, which at this point is just Massey’s non-BCS, Sagarin’s and Billingsley’s rankings. As the various computers are released before the start of the season, we’ll add them here and update the standings.
  • In total, we’ll say these rankings reflect the real BCS rankings with 50% accuracy

South Carolina’s loss actually turned out to help along teams unconnected with the early results. Teams like Stanford, Texas A&M and even Oregon picked up some of the points the Gamecocks vacated, as their BCS stock was strengthened while Clemson took a slight hit.

The computers also helped Stanford into the third position, as Billingsley named Stanford its No. 1 team this week, while Sagarin left Clemson out of the top handful of teams all together.

Louisville and Ohio State, which were keyed here early as teams lacking in computer faith, got a little boost this week, but still need plenty of help from their upcoming schedule to invigorate their respect in the mathematical element. The numbers, at least now, are not in the Buckeyes’ and Cardinals’ favor, but that could change as we move forward.

Elsewhere, Michigan, Northwestern and Baylor secure spots in the top 16 after strong weekend victories

Here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the second week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — September 9

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9887
2 Oregon Ducks .9167
3 Stanford Cardinal .8745
4 Clemson Tigers .7949
5 Texas A&M Aggies .7722
6 Ohio State Buckeyes .7311
7 LSU Tigers .7261
8 Georgia Bulldogs .7253
9 Florida State Seminoles .6572
10 Louisville Cardinals .6111
11 South Carolina Gamecocks .5715
12 Michigan Wolverines .5609
13 Oklahoma State Cowboys .5582
14 Oklahoma Sooners .5443
15 Northwestern Wildcats .2999
16 Baylor Bears .2983

Simulated BCS Rankings Week One: Clemson Up To No. 3, Alabama Already Pulling Away

biggerbcslogo

Funny what one big win can do for your BCS hopes and dreams. No team can recognize that as much as Clemson can after the first week of the last BCS season, after a huge home win over Georgia gave the Tigers a boost to No. 3 in this week’s simulated BCS rankings.

Simulated BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 South Carolina Gamecocks
Scroll down for more

You’re familiar already with the top two teams, No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Oregon, who have become staples at the top of all kinds of BCS standings. But Clemson, though resurgent, has staked an early claim to the team to watch as the season wears on.

How did we get there? We’ve made the following changes to the BCS formula, to account for the pieces we have and the pieces we’re missing:

  • We’ve replaced the Harris Poll, which wont be available until mid-October, with the AP Poll
  • We’re ONLY using the available and up-to-date BCS computers, which at this point is just Massey’s non-BCS, Sagarin’s and Billingsley’s rankings. As the various computers are released before the start of the season, we’ll add them here and update the standings.
  • In total, we’ll say with 44.4% accuracy that this is a good estimation of the BCS rankings

So it’s Clemson that makes the big leap, taking the No. 3 spot away from the same Bulldogs they beat on Saturday night. Behind them land the Pac-12’s other hope for BCS glory, Stanford, and the SEC’s second-best hope so far, South Carolina.

Ohio State, although landing comfortably in the top-three of both human element polls, suffers dearly from the three available computers, pulling in an average ranking of 13.6 despite their support across the board in the human element. Louisville also suffers terrible from the computers, not landing in the top-25 in two of the three available rankings.

Also of note is the strength of Alabama’s lead this early in the year. With one game gone, the Crimson Tide have a shockingly large lead of more than .1000, a big gulf for any team to cross.

But enough talk, explore our BCS Know How simulated preseason standings for yourself!

Here are the simulated preseason BCS rankings at the end of the first week:

2013 Simulated BCS Standings — September 3

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9983
2 Oregon Ducks .8865
3 Clemson Tigers .8262
4 Stanford Cardinal .8178
5 South Carolina Gamecocks .7870
6 Ohio State Buckeyes .7705
7 Texas A&M Aggies .7662
8 LSU Tigers .6816
9 Florida Gators .6172
10 Florida State Seminoles .6152
11 Georgia Bulldogs .6091
12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .5733
13 Oklahoma State Cowboys .5627
14 Louisville Cardinals .5267
15 Oklahoma Sooners .4881
16 Texas Longhorns .3806

2013 AQ Conference Profiles: Atlantic Coast Conference

 

ACC-header

BCS Know How will take you through the six automatic-qualifying BCS conferences in preparation for the 2013 season. Short and sweet previews keep going with the expanded ACC. Scroll down to see our profiles of the other conferences.

Conference: Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

Active Since: 1953

Current Member Schools:

Atlantic Conference: Boston College Eagles, Clemson Tigers, Florida State Seminoles, Maryland Terrapins, NC State Wolfpack, Syracuse Orange, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Coastal Conference: Duke Blue Devils, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Miami Hurricanes, North Carolina Tar Heels, Pittsburgh Panthers, Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech Hokies (14)

2013 Bowl Affiliations and Tie-Ins: Orange Bowl (BCS), Military Bowl, Belk Bowl, Russell Athletic Bowl, Music City Bowl, AdvoCare V100 Bowl, Sun Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl (8)

2012 Results:
Conference Champion — Florida State Seminoles (12-2, 7-1)
Conference Runner-up — Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-7, 5-3)
BCS Bowl Results: 2013 Orange Bowl: Florida State 31 vs. Northern Illinois 10
Overall Bowl Record: 4-2

2013 Heisman Hopefuls: Miami RB Duke Johnson, Miami QB Stephen Morris, Clemson QB Tajh Boyd, Clemson WR Sammy Watkins

BCS Know How’s 2013 Predictions:
Conference Champion — Clemson Tigers
Conference Runner-up — Florida State Seminoles
BCS Bids — Clemson — Orange Bowl
Heisman Finalists: None

2012 BCS AQ Conference Profile: Atlantic Coast Conference

BCS Know How will take you through the six automatic-qualifying BCS conferences in preparation for the 2012 season. Short and sweet previews begin with the ACC. Scroll down to see our profiles of the other conferences.

Conference: Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

Active Since: 1953

Current Member Schools:

Atlantic Division: Boston College Eagles, Clemson Tigers, Florida State Seminoles, Maryland Terrapins, North Carolina State Wolfpack, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Coastal Division: Duke Blue Devils, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes, North Carolina Tar Heels, Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech Hokies (12)

Bowl Affiliations: Orange Bowl (BCS), Military Bowl, Belk Bowl, Independence Bowl, Russell Athletic Bowl, Music City Bowl, Sun Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl (8)

2011 Results:
Conference Champion — Clemson Tigers (10-4, 6-2, Coastal Division Champion)
Conference Runner-up — Virginia Tech Hokies (11-3, 7-1, Atlantic Division Champion)
BCS Bowl Results: 2012 Orange Bowl: West Virginia 70 vs. Clemson 33; 2012 Sugar Bowl: Michigan 23 vs. Virginia Tech 20
Overall Bowl Record: 2-6

2012 Outlook: Up, down and up again, Clemson spent the early part of the 2011 season as a top-10 team. Stumbles mid-season broke any chance of a national title shot for the Tigers, but a Clemson ACC championship game victory over Virginia Tech brought the ACC two BCS bids for the first time in conference history.

With an unparalleled season in that respect in the review mirror, can the ACC again deliver top-flight talent on a national stage? The pieces seem in place, as Florida State — BCS bowl-less since 2006 — is a preseason top-10 team and the consistent Hokies figure to play a role in the national discussion somewhere down the line.

A conference that hasn’t participated in the BCS title game since 2003 may have a shot with the Seminoles in 2012. but a so0n-to-be-outdated BCS title shot or not, the ACC is certainly a force to reckon with.

Heisman Hopefuls: Clemson QB Tajh Boyd, Clemson WR Sammy Watkins, Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas; North Carolina RB Giovani Bernard; Florida State QB E.J. Manuel

BCS Know How’s 2012 Predictions:
Conference Champion — Florida State Seminoles
Conference Runner-up — Virginia Tech Hokies
BCS Bids — Florida State — Orange Bowl
Heisman Finalists: None

West Virginia Blows By Clemson 70-33 in Orange Bowl Laugher

It took a little bit for West Virginia to get going, but once the Mountaineers got on the scoreboard, they never looked back, using a 99-yard fumble recovery to blast their way to a blowout 70-33 victory over Clemson in Wednesday’s Orange Bowl.

West Virginia kept scoring Wednesday night, as Clemson’s defensive attack was simply overmatched. The Mountaineers set an all-time bowl record — yes, bowl, not just BCS bowl — for first half points with 49 and the game itself set the record for points scored in a BCS bowl game. The 70 points the Mountaineers scored was also an NCAA-era record for points in a bowl game.

The Mountaineers also accounted for other BCS and bowl records — quarterback Geno Smith set the BCS bowl record for passing touchdowns and receiver Tavon Austin set the record for receiving touchdowns in an Orange Bowl game.

Clemson did lead the Orange Bowl heading into the second quarter, but the Mountaineers were relentless in the quarter, scoring 35 and putting the game away for good.

The Tigers came into the game on the heels of topping Virginia Tech for a second time on the season — this time in the ACC Championship Game. The Hokies were able to claim a BCS bowl bid of their own, but Clemson got the auto-invite to the Orange Bowl as ACC champs. The Tigers’ 10-win season had been a hopeful sign for the Orange Bowl, but the Mountaineers quickly took that away.

West Virginia moves to 3-0 all time in BCS bowl games and captures its 10th win of the season, setting the Mountaineers up for high expectations come 2012.

Clemson On Its Way to The Orange Bowl Following ACC Title Game Victory

An underdog coming into the ACC Championship Game, the Clemson Tigers stunned Virginia Tech, topping the Hokies 38-10 to secure the ACC’s automatic bid to the BCS and the conference crown.

With the victory, Clemson is assured of a spot in the Orange Bowl, as the bowl holds a contract with the ACC to host the conference’s champion if they are not headed to the BCS national title game.

Clemson is likely to be faced with the Big East’s conference champion, projected to be West Virginia, in the Miami-based BCS bowl that has seen plenty of exciting matchups throughout its storied history.

Clemson is led by quarterback Tahj Boyd, who helped bring the Tigers back into national prominence, and for a time, had the Tigers angling for a shot at a BCS title game berth. Faltering midway through the season prevented the Tigers from continuing to be contenders in that conversation, but a victory in Saturday’s ACC championship game certainly helped to emphasize the program’s revitalization.