The Big East, MAC and Boise State have conspired. For the first time in the five-game BCS era, clause 3.B of the BCS selection process:
3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:
A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
Is in play.
Sure, non-AQ teams have qualified for BCS bowls in the past using 3.A, but the cusp of the BCS automatic qualifiers has never bordered on the top 16 like it does as we draw 2012 to a close.
With the Big East champion guaranteed to land outside the top 16 in the final BCS rankings, if a non-AQ conference champion were to appear in the top 16, they’d be given a BCS bowl bid automatically.
And as you’ve more than likely heard, in the seventh and next-to-last BCS standings three non-AQ teams — Kent State, Boise State and Northern Illinois — appeared here as the three highest-ranking non-AQ (i.e. members of the aforementioned conferences) teams, each with a chance to win their conferences:
BCS Standings Week Seven — November 25th
| Rank | Team | BCS Score |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | UCLA Bruins | .3304 |
| 17 | Kent State Golden Flashes | .2512 |
| 18 | Texas Longhorns | .2492 |
| 19 | Michigan Wolverines | .2094 |
| 20 | Boise State Broncos | .2030 |
| 21 | Northern Illinois Huskies | .1936 |
—
No. 17 Kent State landed just outside of that all-important No. 16 spot. And the gap wasn’t insignificant. Nearly .08 behind No. 16 UCLA is no small margin to make up in one week.
But Kent State has one final push under its belt. The Golden Flashes will take on Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game on Thursday. Could a win over the No. 21 Huskies be enough to push Kent State in? Would they deserve it over Boise State, which seems relegated to secondary status in the line for a non-AQ bid?
To judge that, we took to comparing these three teams. As we have all season with the best of the BCS, we compiled a schedule strength and BCS implications worksheet for the three teams. As a reminder an “important game” is any against a BCS-ranked team or a Sagarin ELO_CHESS top-60 team. Here’s what we found:
BCS No. 17 Kent State Golden Flashes (11-1) SOS: 122
Important games already played:
- Sagarin No. 41 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-2) SOS: 92 — Won 35-23
- Sagarin No. 43 Ball State Cardinals (9-3) SOS: 78 — Won 45-43
—
Important games remaining:
- BCS No. 21 Northern Illinois Huskies (11-1) SOS: 129 — Nov. 30
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BCS No. 20 Boise State Broncos (9-2) SOS: 113
Important games already played:
- Sagarin No. 36 Michigan State Spartans (6-6) SOS: 29 — Lost 17-13
- Sagarin No. 44 BYU Cougars (7-5) SOS: 57 — Won 7-6
- Sagarin No. 45 Frenso State Bulldogs (9-3) SOS: 103 — Won 20-10
- Sagarin No. 53 San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) SOS: 101 — Lost 21-19
—
Important games remaining:
- None
—
BCS No. 21 Northern Illinois Huskies (11-1) SOS: 129
Important games already played:
- Sagarin No. 43 Ball State Cardinals (9-3) SOS: 78 — Won 35-23
- Sagarin No. 49 Toledo Rockets (9-3) SOS: 104 — Won 31-24
—
Important games remaining:
- BCS No. 17 Kent State Golden Flashes (11-1) SOS: 122 — Nov. 30
Each team has two wins against an “important” opponent, which indicates that a one-loss Boise State team would have a far better shot at cracking the BCS this year than either Northern Illinois or Kent State, but that’s just not what we’re faced with.
So what happens this week?
By playing each other, Kent State and Northern Illinois will decide the MAC Championship and give us the one team that has a solid chance at a BCS bowl. But it’s not guaranteed if other favorites win out. Here’s why:
Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Seven (November 25)
| Team | Anderson | Billingsley | Colley | Massey | Sagarin | Wolfe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent State | 20 | 15 | 15 | 28 | 37 | 15 |
| Boise State | 38 | 24 | 34 | 46 | 45 | 42 |
| Northern Illinois | 23 | 19 | 21 | 31 | 38 | 23 |
—
The computer support across the board is not as favorable as fans of these teams might hope, despite their one- or two-loss records. That’s a direct result of the lack of schedule strength illustrated in the worksheet.
Colley’s Matrix has a nice tool where you can add and subtract games from his rankings. Using that tool as an indicator, a win for either team, even Kent State, which already enjoys stronger computer support does little.
We added these results with favorites winning key final weekend showdowns. These games are the ones many non-AQ watchers are looking at:
- Kansas State beats Texas
- Stanford beats UCLA
- Florida State beats Georgia Tech
- Nebraska beats Wisconsin
—
When adding a Kent State victory to that combination, the Golden Flashes climb two spots in Colley — No. 16 to No. 14. When adding a Northern Illinois victory to that combination, the Huskies climbs five spots — No. 22 to No. 17.
Would a similar small bump across all six computers for either team be enough? It depends. Even with No. 16 UCLA moved out of the way, weaker computer scores could drag down the support of any non-AQ hopeful. It will differ computer to computer. That’s the nature of the BCS computers, but it’s nice to get an early look at the scenarios like this.
Of course, if any of the favorites are upset — namely losses by BCS No. 13 Florida State or No. 12 Nebraska — the road will be clearer and we might get that non-AQ team in the BCS despite the computers’ relative cynical look at Kent State and Northern Illinois’s 11-1 records. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.
With nearly all BCS spots guaranteed and Notre Dame sitting at home knowing they’re on their way to the BCS title game, many worried for a drama-free weekend. But fear not — drama we will have on the final weekend.
