Projected BCS Standings: Oregon To Continue Holding Off FSU in Third BCS Standings of 2013

BCSWeek2

Which victories count more? Once again, the difficulty of ranking college football will rear its head in a season with more than just two very impressive teams.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

This week, the difficulty is in sharper relief, especially when Oregon sat at home with Florida State getting another shot at huge national exposure after also having a prime time window against Clemson.

And just like in their victory over the Tigers, the Seminoles dominated previous BCS No. 7 Miami on national TV. So with No. 2 Oregon at home, can the Seminoles reclaim the No. 2 spot they lost last weekend?

At least for now, the answer is likely no. Though the Seminoles will get a nice boost where they’ll need it — in the polls and computers — the combination of Oregon’s renewed computer strength and it’s steadying influence at No. 2 in the BCS, likely gives us Florida St. at No. 3 once again, but far closer than they were last week.

In fact, familiarity with the position should be the name of the game in the third BCS standings of the season, with very little movement from teams that were solidly entrenched in their spots last weekend.

Clearly, Miami will fall out of it’s No. 7 spot after losing to FSU, which will allow for some upward movement from some impressive teams, including Clemson, Missouri and Auburn.

But the season is far from over. And we’re just a few days away from perhaps the most wild Thursday in college football’s recent history. So plenty of interesting things are in store. We’ll just have to figure out which one of those games — and potential victories — count more.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Three (November 3rd)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
6 Baylor Bears
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Missouri Tigers
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 Auburn Tigers
11 Miami Hurricanes
12 Texas A&M Aggies

BCS Computer Rankings Week Three: Kansas State, Notre Dame Share Computer Love

It was clear that a victory over the computer-strong Oklahoma Sooners would do wonders for Notre Dame’s BCS rank, but their climb into a share of the BCS computer aggregate lead in the third BCS rankings was somewhat surprising.

But that’s what it took for the Irish to claim the No. 3 spot in the overall BCS rankings, sharing the honor of the best computer team with BCS No. 2 Kansas State.

Alabama, slowly climbing the ranks of the computers, lands at No. 3 after a big victory over Mississippi State, with Florida and Oregon rounding out the BCS computers top-five teams.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Three (October 28)

Rank Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
1 Kansas St. Alabama Notre Dame Notre Dame Kansas St. Kansas St.
2 Notre Dame Notre Dame Alabama Kansas St. Notre Dame Notre Dame
3 Alabama Kansas St. Kansas St. Alabama Florida Alabama
4 Oregon Oregon Florida Florida LSU Florida
5 Florida LSU Oregon Oregon Oklahoma Oregon
6 Georiga Georgia Oregon St LSU Georgia LSU

And the aggregate BCS computer rankings:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week Three (October 28)

Rank Team Share of Vote
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .970
1 Kansas State Wildcats .970
3 Alabama Crimson Tide .930
4 Florida Gators .870
5 Oregon Ducks .850
6 LSU Tigers .790
7 Georgia Bulldogs .780
8 Oregon State Beavers .700
9 South Carolina Gamecocks .670
10 Oklahoma Sooners .610
11 Stanford Cardinal .580
12 Texas Tech Red Raiders .570

Third BCS Rankings of 2012: Notre Dame Grabs Slight Edge Over Oregon, Claims No. 3 Spot

Three weeks into the BCS standings and we’re set up for the kind of controversial finish the BCS is accustomed to creating. In the waning years of the system, we might as well be used to this by now.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 Oregon Ducks
5 LSU Tigers
Scroll down for more

Oregon, a team that has done nothing wrong, is once again jumped in the BCS rankings this week, as Notre Dame claims the BCS’s No. 3 spot. Oregon’s position is unchanged from last weekend, when they trailed Florida and Kansas State, but with Florida dropping a big game to Georgia, many might have expected the Ducks to see a one-spot bump.

Instead, Notre Dame, the victor in a key battle with Oklahoma, leaps past Oregon.

Quietly, Kansas State is the new No. 2 team after Florida’s loss, and is now comfortably ahead of the Ducks. Not a distance that Oregon cannot make up in the coming weeks, but one that is surprisingly large given the disparity of the rankings in the polls — where Oregon is a sturdy No. 2 and Kansas State is a sturdy No. 3.

LSU rounds out the top five, staying just ahead of resurgent No. 6 Georgia. Florida, the Bulldogs’ victim, lands at No. 7.

Then it gets a little nutty. Teams from here on down are in desperate need of some help to move up, and are well on the outside looking in on the national title picture. South Carolina, on the strength of a huge boost from the computers, lands at No. 8 despite a lower ranking in the human element.

Florida State, the more convincing favorite of the pollsters in this ranking area, lands at No. 9, just ahead of No. 10 Louisville, up big from last week’s No. 16 ranking.

One-loss Oregon State falls from No. 7 to No. 11 after suffering their first loss to Washington, but stays among the top-12 on the strength of still-impressive computer rankings. Oklahoma rounds out the top 12.

A third iteration of the BCS and we’re already looking at controversy and intrigue. Let’s find out how it all plays out. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the third BCS rankings of 2012:

BCS Standings Week Three — October 28th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9759
2 Kansas State Wildcats .9400
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish .9147
4 Oregon Ducks .9136
5 LSU Tigers .8163
6 Georgia Bulldogs .7753
7 Florida Gators .7604
8 South Carolina Gamecocks .5968
9 Florida State Seminoles .5743
10 Louisville Cardinals .5661
11 Oregon State Beavers .5559
12 Oklahoma Sooners .5454
13 Clemson Tigers .5095
14 Stanford Cardinal .4863
15 Mississippi State Bulldogs .3913
16 Texas A&M Aggies .3593

Some thoughts:

Third BCS Rankings of 2011: Stanford Leaps Ahead of Boise State While No. 1 LSU, No. 2 Alabama Prepare for Showdown

Stanford jumps to No. 4 on the strength of its victory over USC combined with losses by Clemson and Kansas State, but of course, the conversation turns almost immediately to the top two slots, where LSU and Alabama sit once again with just one week until their showdown in Tuscaloosa.

The Tigers and Crimson Tide remain situated at the top of this week’s standings, now waiting out the days until they get a chance to help clear up the BCS picture, although the chance of a muddled picture at the top at the end of the season grows with every undefeated who falls. Again the question arises — could we see a rematch of the SEC powerhouses in the BCS national title game?

For now, the two lead a pack of impressive BCS teams who made plenty of moves in this week’s standings.

Stanford lands past Boise State on a far better computer average than the Cardinal had been enjoying until this point, mostly from their first quality win of the season over USC. Oklahoma State improves its lead on the teams that come after it, although not by much, and still trail the SEC duo.

Oklahoma rejoins the conversation at No. 6 after topping Kansas State, followed by one-loss squads Arkansas and Oregon. The Razorbacks sneak by Oregon on the strength of their computer support, far better than that of the Ducks.

South Carolina and Nebraska also make impressive jumps into the top 10, as both have bounced back from earlier losses.

Clemson and Kansas State take tumbles after their hopes at undefeated seasons came to an end Saturday, with both dropping six slots.

But enough talk, here’s the third BCS rankings of 2011.

BCS Standings Week Three — October 30

Rank Team BCS Score
1 LSU Tigers .9734
2 Alabama Crimson Tide .9591
3 Oklahoma State Cowboys .9310
4 Stanford Cardinal .8615
5 Boise State Broncos .8522
6 Oklahoma Sooners .7760
7 Arkansas Razorbacks .7033
8 Oregon Ducks .6916
9 South Carolina Gamecocks .6177
10 Nebraska Cornhuskers .6156
11 Clemson Tigers .5961
12 Virginia Tech Hokies .5693
13 Houston Cougars .4698
14 Kansas State Wildcats .4600
15 Michigan Wolverines .4512
16 Penn State Nittany Lions .4022

Some thoughts:

  • BCS Know How’s Projected BCSvs. Actual BCS Rankings
    • Not the worst, not the best. Got 1-6, switched around a few after that. Wasn’t expecting Arkansas’s precipitous rise, was expecting that from Virginia Tech instead…