Projected BCS Standings: Last BCS Rankings To Set Up Florida State & Auburn

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It seemed like it was going to play out just like we hoped — drama, controversy and loud yelling until the day the BCS died. And then Michigan State had to ruin all that.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Florida State Seminoles
2 Auburn Tigers
3 Alabama Crimson Tide
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Michigan State Spartans
Scroll down for more

When Auburn took the SEC title during its Saturday matinee television spot, the debate started to ratchet up. If Ohio State won the Big Ten title, would they be headed to the BCS title game or could Auburn jump the Buckeyes?

Turns out it didn’t matter. Michigan State surprised the nation, ending Ohio State’s 24-game winning streak and giving Auburn the chance to grab No. 2 in the very last BCS standings. With that, the title game is set. As are a few other of the yearly BCS scenarios we’ve come to love and count on each season.

Here’s what else we know so far:

  • Stanford and Michigan State will be headed to the Rose Bowl after winning their respective conference titles
  • Baylor will be going to the Fiesta Bowl after winning the Big 12 on a crazy day of conference action
  • UCF will automatically claim a BCS bowl bid after winning the regular season AAC title, likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl
  • Alabama will likely be automatically qualified for a BCS bowl by finishing third in the final BCS standings, thus eliminating all other possible SEC berths beyond Auburn. For more on this, visit the BCS Bowls page
  • Teams likely eligible tomorrow for the at-large pool: Clemson, Oregon, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, South Carolina and possibly LSU
  • For more, check out our final slate of projected BCS bowls

Meanwhile, the BCS standings, after electing Florida State No. 1 and Auburn No. 2, will probably play out as expected. Alabama is likely to end the year at No. 3, followed by conference champions Stanford and Michigan State. Then expect Ohio State to land around No. 6 after its first loss in more than two years, followed by Baylor and Missouri, Oklahoma and South Carolina, and Oregon and Oklahoma State.

As for what to expect for tomorrow: We’ll get the Coaches’ Poll normal time, around noon ET. Then things will be quiet. We expect to have Jeff Sagarin’s BCS computer rankings early, but who knows for sure.

The Harris Poll will be withheld from public viewing until after the BCS pairings are announced to keep some “drama” but since most of the drama is gone, take that as you will.

Then, around 8:30, the numbers will start pouring in and the pairings will be announced and we’ll be on our way to the final BCS season.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Final Projected BCS Standings (December 8th)

Rank Team
1 Florida State Seminoles
2 Auburn Tigers
3 Alabama Crimson Tide
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Michigan State Spartans
6 Ohio State Buckeyes
7 Baylor Bears
8 Oklahoma Sooners
9 Missouri Tigers
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Oregon Ducks
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys
13 Clemson Tigers
14 LSU Tigers
15 UCF Knights
16 Arizona State Sun Devils

On a programming note: Obviously things around here are going to change very soon. This has been a ton of fun to do. More on what’s next after the craziness of tomorrow. Thank you all!

Projected BCS Standings: Auburn’s Play For A Title Game Spot in Seventh Standings of 2013

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The death knell for the BCS, perhaps most appropriately, will likely be one of controversy. The system would have it no other way.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Florida State Seminoles
2 Ohio State Buckeyes
3 Auburn Tigers
4 Alabama Crimson Tide
5 Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

Auburn’s stunning victory over Alabama likely clinched at least a somewhat controversial end to the BCS’s reign over college football as the Crimson Tide’s spot atop the college football world is now over.

Where, then, does that leave the BCS when the seventh standings of 2013 come out Sunday? Obviously for the first time this year, Alabama will not be No. 1. That honor will fall to Florida State, making its way back to the top of the BCS for the first time in what seems like ages.

Then it gets interesting. Clearly, Ohio State surviving its rivalry meeting with Michigan will be a huge boon to its national title game hopes. But Auburn’s victory over the previously unassailable Alabama could mean a huge swing of support in the Tigers’ direction. Who will land at No. 2 this week?

It’s likely Ohio State, as the voters will give the benefit of the doubt to the undefeated and long-revered Buckeyes. But Auburn will lurk at No. 3. And with a chance to clinch the SEC title next weekend and the growing tradition of SEC champs playing for the BCS title, Auburn’s not out of this yet. A win over likely BCS No. 5 Missouri next weekend paired with a close Ohio State victory in the Big Ten title game could cause the chaos we’ve come to expect.

After Missouri, it’s all battling for the at-large and automatic BCS bowl bids, including Northern Illinois’ quest for a second-straight bowl game bid and Clemson, Oregon, Michigan State and Baylor angling for eligibility and spots. Plus, the auto-bids given to the champs of the six AQ conferences.

Just one more BCS standing after Sunday, ever. The end is close!

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Seven (December 1st)

Rank Team
1 Florida State Seminoles
2 Ohio State Buckeyes
3 Auburn Tigers
4 Alabama Crimson Tide
5 Missouri Tigers
6 Oklahoma State Cowboys
7 Stanford Cardinal
8 South Carolina Gamecocks
9 Baylor Bears
10 Clemson Tigers
11 Michigan State Spartans
12 Arizona State Sun Devils

Projected BCS Standings: BCS Becoming More Clear in Sixth Standings of 2013

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A week after very nearly knocking off Ohio State from its perch at No. 3, Baylor falls by the wayside with a loss to Oklahoma State. Bad news for the Bears, and good news for the Buckeyes, which can slide comfortably into the No. 3 spot knowing they’re without equal when it comes to a ‘replacement’ pick for the title game.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Auburn Tigers
5 Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

Of course, holding those poll positions are Alabama and Florida State, sitting comfortably after a couple of strong wins. After the Buckeyes, however? It’s a mess

Now with more than just a handful of once-beaten teams on the BCS roster, the voters will have some choosing to do. Surprisingly, Oregon no longer counts among the once-beaten after losing to Arizona, but a handful of Tigers, plus many more do still have that one-loss sheen.

Last week’s No. 6, Auburn, likely makes that leap into the top-four, thanking Baylor and Oregon on its way up. After that, Clemson and Missouri will battle it out for No. 5 — that race should be somewhat closer this week than it was last as the voting pieces are placed back to teams somewhat haphazardly.

Oklahoma State and Stanford will in the discussion, too, thanking Texas A&M for not making their lives quite as difficult as they could be.

Oh, and Ohio State could finally get some Big Ten company in the top-12 with the emergence of Michigan State, mostly moving up because other teams are getting out of the way, fast.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Six (November 24th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Auburn Tigers
5 Missouri Tigers
6 Clemson Tigers
7 Oklahoma State Cowboys
8 Stanford Cardinal
9 Baylor Bears
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Oregon Ducks
12 Michigan State Spartans

Projected BCS Standings: Baylor Can Make Its Move In Fifth BCS Standings of 2013

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Funny how one week’s marquee victory can mean far less given the next weekend’s results. Stanford, a one-loss team that seemingly had it all — an early loss, a big win over a conference rival and top-10 team, and a high BCS ranking above undefeated teams — was unable to hold off USC at the Coliseum, and sees its already slim BCS title hopes falter.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Baylor Bears
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Oregon Ducks
Scroll down for more

Though the Stanford loss is intriguing, especially given the way the Pac-12 could resolve itself this season, the real drama will come at the No. 3 spot.

Baylor will finally see its odd stalling behind a one-loss teams come to an end and will move up. But how far? Can the Bears take the No. 3 spot?

The debate is now front and center. Is Baylor or Ohio State the best replacement pick for a national title game should Alabama or Florida State lose?

The fascinating thing is this — with Stanford’s loss, a lot of computer support becomes readily available for Baylor. As does human poll support. Some team is going to have to pick up those pieces and Ohio State chose the wrong weekend to win ugly against Illinois.

Much of that voter confidence will go Baylor’s way, especially after the Bears posted more than 60 points against formerly hot Texas Tech. And, Baylor already had some computer ground left to make up. This might be the weekend the Bears do it.

So can Baylor take No. 3? We’ll say yes.

Also, added bonus — four top teams, all undefeated? Sounds like a ringing endorsement for the College Football Playoff, right?

The one-loss squads with something to prove, including Oregon and Auburn, will come next. Don’t be surprised to see Auburn make a run at the No. 5 spot, which we’re projecting will be filled by Oregon. Though the Tigers might come up a bit short, a win over high competition like Georgia is likely to net Auburn some ground. Plus, with the ranks of the truly elite teams dwindling, now is the time to take a look at the broader picture

Clemson and Missouri, along with Stanford, will likely make up the rest of the top nine, as last week’s No. 10 South Carolina trailed significantly in its hope to breaking into the top 10.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Five (November 17th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Baylor Bears
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Oregon Ducks
6 Auburn Tigers
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Missouri Tigers
9 Stanford Cardinal
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Texas A&M Aggies
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys

Projected BCS Standings: FSU Takes Control of Destiny in Fourth BCS Standings of 2013

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When faced with some of the most difficult opponents of their season, teams often reveal just how good they are. In the cast of Oregon and Alabama, tests like that came this extended weekend. And for Oregon, the test was not passed.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Baylor Bears
Scroll down for more

More importantly, for Florida State, Oregon’s loss means a world of difference for the Seminoles. Is Florida State’s ticket to the BCS title game punched if they can win out? It certainly seems like it given the ranks of the undefeateds shrinks every week and Florida State continues to impress.

That being said, the continuing success of Ohio State and Baylor is something that can’t be ignored, and wont be in the newest BCS rankings, where a cluster of once-beaten teams and undefeated teams will battle for the top spots.

With the win over Oregon, Stanford will likely again be a major factor in the BCS race this weekend, but Oregon’s loss to a top-five team shouldn’t necessarily drop the Ducks completely out of the picture.

This is all well and nice, but the question will be who will be next in line if things don’t go well in the final weeks for presumed No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida State. Will it be the undefeated teams or the one-loss teams with impressive wins?

For now it’s the undefeated Ohio State waiting for that tumble everyone anticipates and wants. But who’s next? We’ll just have to find out.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Four (November 10th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Seminoles
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Baylor Bears
6 Oregon Ducks
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Auburn Tigers
9 Missouri Tigers
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Texas A&M Aggies
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys

Projected BCS Standings: Oregon To Continue Holding Off FSU in Third BCS Standings of 2013

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Which victories count more? Once again, the difficulty of ranking college football will rear its head in a season with more than just two very impressive teams.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

This week, the difficulty is in sharper relief, especially when Oregon sat at home with Florida State getting another shot at huge national exposure after also having a prime time window against Clemson.

And just like in their victory over the Tigers, the Seminoles dominated previous BCS No. 7 Miami on national TV. So with No. 2 Oregon at home, can the Seminoles reclaim the No. 2 spot they lost last weekend?

At least for now, the answer is likely no. Though the Seminoles will get a nice boost where they’ll need it — in the polls and computers — the combination of Oregon’s renewed computer strength and it’s steadying influence at No. 2 in the BCS, likely gives us Florida St. at No. 3 once again, but far closer than they were last week.

In fact, familiarity with the position should be the name of the game in the third BCS standings of the season, with very little movement from teams that were solidly entrenched in their spots last weekend.

Clearly, Miami will fall out of it’s No. 7 spot after losing to FSU, which will allow for some upward movement from some impressive teams, including Clemson, Missouri and Auburn.

But the season is far from over. And we’re just a few days away from perhaps the most wild Thursday in college football’s recent history. So plenty of interesting things are in store. We’ll just have to figure out which one of those games — and potential victories — count more.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Three (November 3rd)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
6 Baylor Bears
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Missouri Tigers
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 Auburn Tigers
11 Miami Hurricanes
12 Texas A&M Aggies

Projected BCS Standings: Oregon To Claim No. 2 In Second BCS Standings of 2013

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Time seems to run out slowly when you’re making a chase for a BCS bid. Whether it’s on the clock to hold on to the last-second victory or the weeks ticking slowly by in the last BCS year.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

Teams from around the country had little trouble dispatching of less difficult foes, but for a few teams, the time needed to get victories on Saturday must have seemed to move extra slow.

And in the case of Missouri, a crushing loss was probably already a death sentence for the season as far as a national title game bid is concerned.

So what else, if anything, did we learn this week? Mostly that the nation’s top BCS teams in its first iteration — Alabama, Oregon and Florida State — are very good. This week, like last week, we’ll see a fight to the finish for No. 2 between Oregon and Florida State.

The better victory this week belongs to the Ducks and not the Seminoles, and with that in mind, expect Oregon to make enough headway in the computers and the human polls to end the Seminoles one-week run at No. 2. Oregon is projected to take back that spot this week.

Elsewhere, the Ducks’ Pac-12 mates Stanford and Big 12 surprise Baylor will be the likely beneficiaries of the Missouri loss, as the Cardinal and Bears will fight for the No. 5 spot, along with Miami. Also look out for Oklahoma, fresh off a victory over previous No. 10 Texas Tech.

An interesting fight is also breaking out between Fresno State and Northern Illinois. Fresno State might remain ahead of Northern Illinois after the Bulldogs finished of San Diego State in OT and the Huskies had an easy victory, mostly because of the lateness of Fresno’s game. But the truly interesting part will come when the BCS rankings wind down. Who will be in front? For now we’re projecting that the Huskies will, even with Fresno possibly taking these first two weeks as the leader in the BCS buster clubhouse.

It’ll all be somewhat familiar when the second BCS rankings are released tomorrow, but with some changes that could play into the chase for the title game when the season winds up. The minutia becomes all the more important this time of year. Good thing we’re here to take a look at it.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Two (October 27)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
6 Baylor Bears
7 Miami Hurricanes
8 Clemson Tigers
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Missouri Tigers
12 Auburn Tigers