Final Projected 2014 BCS Bowls — December 8

newBCSbowls2014

The BCS — at least the part that everyone hated with an undying passion — ends Sunday. But the bowl games, which could range anywhere from epic showdowns to embarrassing blowouts, will stretch into January.

BCS Bowl Projections
Bowl Matchup
Title Game Florida State vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl Stanford vs. Michigan State
Sugar Bowl Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl Clemson vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl Baylor vs. UCF
Scroll down for more

When a BCS season ends like this one did, though, there isn’t much to say other than to just try as best as you can to relive the great games that filled the final week of the season.

It’s clear now that Auburn’s victory in the SEC championship game added to Ohio State’s loss to Michigan State will send the Tigers to the BCS title game. But where is everyone else headed? We project here:

BCS National Championship Game: Florida State Seminoles (BCS No. 1) vs. Auburn Tigers (BCS No. 2)

Comment: Auburn waited all day to see if they’d either have to bite their fingernails or be a little less frazzled come Sunday when it came to their national title hopes. It turned out that Michigan State was ready to help the Tigers out, so Auburn will be walking into Pasadena with a chance to close out the BCS era with another SEC national championship. They’ll meet No. 1 Florida State, the only team to finish the year undefeated in regular season play.

Rose Bowl: Stanford Cardinal (Pac-12 champion) vs. Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten champion)

Comment: Stanford certainly looked the part of Pac-12 champion against Arizona State in the conference title game, and for that the Cardinal will be on their way to the Rose Bowl as Pac-12 champs. They’ll get the chance to take on Big Ten champions Michigan State, who closed out its season with a huge victory over Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, clinching their spot here.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide (At-large selection) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (At-large selection)

Comment: Alabama will get the first look from the Sugar Bowl when it tries to replace its lost SEC champion in Auburn. Sure, the Orange Bowl will have a first shot to replace Florida State, but knowing the way the BCS bowls work, the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl are sure to work out a way to share the responsibility of getting their fans what they want. Oklahoma would be a nice pairing for the Sugar Bowl’s final BCS bow.

Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers (At-large selection) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (At-large selection)

Comment: Clemson will be the first place the Orange Bowl will look when trying to replace Florida State, but the real question and big story here will be how the bowls treat Ohio State. The once-beaten Buckeyes looked ready for a trip to the BCS title game, but instead will be missing out on the chance to close out the BCS with a title. Instead, the Orange Bowl will have a chance to pick first and third, and could pick a variety of teams to square off with Clemson, but Ohio State looks like the pick.

Fiesta Bowl: Baylor Bears (Big 12 champion) vs. UCF Knights (AAC champion)

Comment: A final weekend of classic BCS football played right into Baylor hands. First, Northern Illinois dropped its final chance to secure a BCS bowl bid, opening up the door slightly for the Bears to get an at-large bid. But come Saturday night, Baylor was playing for it all — a Big 12 title opportunity after Oklahoma State faltered. And with a victory over Texas, Baylor is BCS bowl bound. They’ll likely get AAC champion UCF as the Fiesta Bowl will be saddled with the last pool choice pick, which in all likelihood will be the Knights.

Advertisement

Baylor Claims Big 12 Title, Fiesta Bowl Bid

Baylor-3-1920

With a fun, ice-foggy 30-10 victory over Texas, Baylor took advantage of Oklahoma State’s early Saturday loss and a home crowd to claim the Big 12’s automatic BCS bowl bid. They’ll likely be headed to the Fiesta Bowl as the host of the traditional Big 12 bowl.

The Bears spent all season impressing the country, going well beyond what preseason expectations had expected in Waco. Led by quarterback Bryce Petty and an offense that wouldn’t stop, the Bears challenged for a national title bid up until just weeks before the end of the year when a loss to Oklahoma State dealt the Bears their only loss.

When Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State in Saturday’s Bedlam, it opened up the Texas-Baylor game as a de facto Big 12 title game, and the Bears were victorious. The Bears will now wait until Sunday night to find out who they will play in the Fiesta Bowl, which would likely be AAC champion UCF.

Projected BCS Standings: BCS Becoming More Clear in Sixth Standings of 2013

BCSfour

A week after very nearly knocking off Ohio State from its perch at No. 3, Baylor falls by the wayside with a loss to Oklahoma State. Bad news for the Bears, and good news for the Buckeyes, which can slide comfortably into the No. 3 spot knowing they’re without equal when it comes to a ‘replacement’ pick for the title game.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Auburn Tigers
5 Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

Of course, holding those poll positions are Alabama and Florida State, sitting comfortably after a couple of strong wins. After the Buckeyes, however? It’s a mess

Now with more than just a handful of once-beaten teams on the BCS roster, the voters will have some choosing to do. Surprisingly, Oregon no longer counts among the once-beaten after losing to Arizona, but a handful of Tigers, plus many more do still have that one-loss sheen.

Last week’s No. 6, Auburn, likely makes that leap into the top-four, thanking Baylor and Oregon on its way up. After that, Clemson and Missouri will battle it out for No. 5 — that race should be somewhat closer this week than it was last as the voting pieces are placed back to teams somewhat haphazardly.

Oklahoma State and Stanford will in the discussion, too, thanking Texas A&M for not making their lives quite as difficult as they could be.

Oh, and Ohio State could finally get some Big Ten company in the top-12 with the emergence of Michigan State, mostly moving up because other teams are getting out of the way, fast.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Six (November 24th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Auburn Tigers
5 Missouri Tigers
6 Clemson Tigers
7 Oklahoma State Cowboys
8 Stanford Cardinal
9 Baylor Bears
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Oregon Ducks
12 Michigan State Spartans

Projected BCS Standings: Baylor Can Make Its Move In Fifth BCS Standings of 2013

BCSfour

Funny how one week’s marquee victory can mean far less given the next weekend’s results. Stanford, a one-loss team that seemingly had it all — an early loss, a big win over a conference rival and top-10 team, and a high BCS ranking above undefeated teams — was unable to hold off USC at the Coliseum, and sees its already slim BCS title hopes falter.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Baylor Bears
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Oregon Ducks
Scroll down for more

Though the Stanford loss is intriguing, especially given the way the Pac-12 could resolve itself this season, the real drama will come at the No. 3 spot.

Baylor will finally see its odd stalling behind a one-loss teams come to an end and will move up. But how far? Can the Bears take the No. 3 spot?

The debate is now front and center. Is Baylor or Ohio State the best replacement pick for a national title game should Alabama or Florida State lose?

The fascinating thing is this — with Stanford’s loss, a lot of computer support becomes readily available for Baylor. As does human poll support. Some team is going to have to pick up those pieces and Ohio State chose the wrong weekend to win ugly against Illinois.

Much of that voter confidence will go Baylor’s way, especially after the Bears posted more than 60 points against formerly hot Texas Tech. And, Baylor already had some computer ground left to make up. This might be the weekend the Bears do it.

So can Baylor take No. 3? We’ll say yes.

Also, added bonus — four top teams, all undefeated? Sounds like a ringing endorsement for the College Football Playoff, right?

The one-loss squads with something to prove, including Oregon and Auburn, will come next. Don’t be surprised to see Auburn make a run at the No. 5 spot, which we’re projecting will be filled by Oregon. Though the Tigers might come up a bit short, a win over high competition like Georgia is likely to net Auburn some ground. Plus, with the ranks of the truly elite teams dwindling, now is the time to take a look at the broader picture

Clemson and Missouri, along with Stanford, will likely make up the rest of the top nine, as last week’s No. 10 South Carolina trailed significantly in its hope to breaking into the top 10.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Five (November 17th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Baylor Bears
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Oregon Ducks
6 Auburn Tigers
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Missouri Tigers
9 Stanford Cardinal
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Texas A&M Aggies
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys