Projected BCS Standings: Oregon To Continue Holding Off FSU in Third BCS Standings of 2013

BCSWeek2

Which victories count more? Once again, the difficulty of ranking college football will rear its head in a season with more than just two very impressive teams.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

This week, the difficulty is in sharper relief, especially when Oregon sat at home with Florida State getting another shot at huge national exposure after also having a prime time window against Clemson.

And just like in their victory over the Tigers, the Seminoles dominated previous BCS No. 7 Miami on national TV. So with No. 2 Oregon at home, can the Seminoles reclaim the No. 2 spot they lost last weekend?

At least for now, the answer is likely no. Though the Seminoles will get a nice boost where they’ll need it — in the polls and computers — the combination of Oregon’s renewed computer strength and it’s steadying influence at No. 2 in the BCS, likely gives us Florida St. at No. 3 once again, but far closer than they were last week.

In fact, familiarity with the position should be the name of the game in the third BCS standings of the season, with very little movement from teams that were solidly entrenched in their spots last weekend.

Clearly, Miami will fall out of it’s No. 7 spot after losing to FSU, which will allow for some upward movement from some impressive teams, including Clemson, Missouri and Auburn.

But the season is far from over. And we’re just a few days away from perhaps the most wild Thursday in college football’s recent history. So plenty of interesting things are in store. We’ll just have to figure out which one of those games — and potential victories — count more.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Three (November 3rd)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
6 Baylor Bears
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Missouri Tigers
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 Auburn Tigers
11 Miami Hurricanes
12 Texas A&M Aggies

2013 BCS implications and strength of schedule worksheet for Week 10

IMPLICATIONS10

As it has in every college football season under the reign of the BCS, a team’s computer ranking is its most confusing and debate-causing aspect of the entire Bowl Championship Series process.

Which team has accomplished the most when the numbers are all you can see? It’s hard for a sport that includes so much subjectivity to remove the fan/expectation/showmanship aspect from the game and look at only the data.

That’s why here at BCS Know How for the last three years we’ve put together the implication worksheet. Which teams have accomplished the most according to the computers? And what teams still have the opportunity to accomplish more?

So what can you find here? The top eight BCS teams (or smaller, if the “striking distance” shrinks), along with their record and strength of schedule, according to Sagarin.

The real important stats, however, come after that. Each team is listed with key games already played, and key games to come. Key games are any against the BCS top 25 or the Sagarin PURE_ELO top 60. If teams are unlisted in the BCS, they are listed with their Sagarin rank, and all SOS is Sagarin-based.

Games for the upcoming weekend are bolded.

Note: All teams are included in the Sagarin data, including bowl-ineligible and FCS teams. If they count there, they count here. The BCS throws out any FCS or ineligible team when calculating its final tally.

BCS No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) SOS: 41

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 12 Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) SOS: 32 — Won 49-42
  • Sagarin No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies (6-2) SOS: 37 — Won 35-10
  • Sagarin No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels (5-3) SOS: 2 — Won 25-0
  • Sagarin No. 57 Tennessee Volunteers (4-4) SOS: 5 — Won 45-10

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 11 Auburn Tigers (7-1) SOS: 51 — Nov. 30
  • BCS No. 13 LSU Tigers (7-2) SOS: 30 — Nov. 9
  • SEC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 2 Oregon Ducks (6-0) SOS: 16

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 20 UCLA Bruins (5-2) SOS: 28 — Won 42-14
  • Sagarin No. 36 Washington Huskies (5-3) SOS: 16 — Won 45-24
  • Sagarin No. 47 Washington State Cougars (4-4) SOS: 15 — Won 62-38
  • Sagarin No. 57 Tennessee Volunteers (4-4) SOS: 5 — Won 59-14

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 5 Stanford Cardinal (7-1) SOS: 9 — Nov. 7
  • Sagarin No. 28 Oregon State Beavers (6-2) SOS: 60 — Nov. 29
  • Sagarin No. 34 Arizona Wildcats (5-2) SOS: 55 — Nov. 23
  • Pac-12 Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0) SOS: 68

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 8 Clemson Tigers (7-1) SOS: 39 — Won 51-14
  • Sagarin No. 46 Pittsburgh Panthers (4-3) SOS: 42 — Won 41-13
  • Sagarin No. 56 FCS Bethune-Cookman (7-1) SOS: 190 — Won 54-6

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 7 Miami Hurricanes (7-0) SOS: 82 — Nov. 2
  • Sagarin No. 31 Florida Gators (4-3) SOS: 14 — Nov. 30
  • ACC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0) SOS: 69

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 24 Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) SOS: 90 — Won 31-24
  • Sagarin No. 39 Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3) SOS: 43 — Won 34-24
  • Sagarin No. 45 Buffalo Bulls (6-2) SOS: 138 — Won 40-20
  • Sagarin No. 53 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-3) SOS: 36 — Won 63-14

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 21 Michigan Wolverines — Nov. 30
  • Big Ten Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 5 Stanford Cardinal (7-1) SOS: 9

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 20 UCLA Bruins (5-2) SOS: 28 — Won 24-10
  • Sagarin No. 28 Oregon State Beavers (6-2) SOS: 60 — Won 20-12
  • Sagarin No. 30 Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) SOS: 12 — Won 42-28
  • Sagarin No. 36 Washington Huskies (5-3) SOS: 16 — Won 31-28
  • Sagarin No. 47 Washington State Cougars (4-4) SOS: 15 — Won 55-17

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 2 Oregon Ducks (6-0) SOS: 16 — Nov. 7
  • Sagarin No. 25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2) SOS: 27 — Nov. 30
  • Sagarin No. 49 USC Trojans (5-3) SOS: 23 — Nov. 16
  • Pac-12 Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 6 Baylor Bears (7-0) SOS: 96

Key games already played:

  • None

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) SOS: 44 — Nov. 7
  • BCS No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1) SOS: 79 — Nov. 16
  • BCS No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) SOS: 52 — Nov. 23
  • Sagarin No. 27 Texas Longhorns (5-2) SOS: 13 — Dec. 7

BCS No. 7 Miami Hurricanes (6-1) SOS: 33

Key games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 31 Florida Gators (4-3) SOS: 14 — Won 21-16
  • Sagarin No. 38 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-3) SOS: 35 — Won 45-30

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0) SOS: 68 — Nov. 2
  • Sagarin No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies (6-2) SOS: 37 — Nov. 9
  • Sagarin No. 46 Pittsburgh Panthers (4-3) SOS: 42 — Nov. 29
  • Sagarin No. 54 Duke Blue Devils (6-2) SOS: 80 — Nov. 16
  • ACC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

BCS No. 8 Clemson Tigers (5-0) SOS: 9

Key games already played:

  • BCS No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0) SOS: 68 — Lost 51-14
  • Sagarin No. 26 Georgia Bulldogs (4-3) SOS: 1 — Won 38-35

Key games remaining:

  • BCS No. 14 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) SOS: 11 — Nov. 30
  • Sagarin No. 38 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-3) SOS: 35 — Nov. 14
  • ACC Championship Game (Potential) — Dec. 7

Second 2013 BCS Rankings: Oregon Laps Florida State For No. 2 After One Week

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The fight at the top of the BCS rankings got a little less competitive just one week after Oregon lagged behind Florida State by just .003 in the BCS for No. 2 last week.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

Yes, after one week of simmering controversy over the fact that Florida State was No. 2 in the BCS but No. 3 in both polls, Oregon storms right ahead of the Seminoles for the No. 2 spot. And it’s not nearly as close this week.

A strong showing in the computers gives Oregon the No. 2 spot by more than .030, more than 10 times the lead Florida State had last weekend. Can Florida State make up that ground? That’ll be the question moving forward.

After Missouri’s loss this weekend, we were expecting some shifting in the next part of the BCS, but unexpectedly, Stanford’s showing across the board was enough to push the one-loss Cardinal past undefeated Baylor to No. 5, while Baylor rests at No. 6. Baylor was largely unable to close the gap on Stanford in the computers, lagging .19 behind the Cardinal in the computer aggregate, which was enough to give Stanford No. 5.

Miami bows at No. 7, Clemson is in at No. 8 and Missouri falls only four spots to No. 9 after losing to South Carolina, which themselves climbs a handful of spots, but nearly as many as we had anticipated.

Oklahoma is back into the top-10 at No. 10, while Auburn is steady at No. 11 and Texas A&M rounds out the top 12 after climbing four impressive spots in one week.

Of interest — No. 16 Fresno State stays one spot ahead of No. 17 Northern Illinois for the second straight week, as expected. Can the Bulldogs hold off the Huskies in a year where a BCS buster seems all the more likely? It’ll be a chase to the spot if both finish undefeated.

With just six weeks of BCS rankings left ever, we’re in the most important stretch of the season. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the second BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week Two — October 27th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9937
2 Oregon Ducks .9517
3 Florida State Seminoles .9211
4 Ohio State Buckeyes .8840
5 Stanford Cardinal .7918
6 Baylor Bears .7645
7 Miami Hurricanes .7560
8 Clemson Tigers .6687
9 Missouri Tigers .6096
10 Oklahoma Sooners .6064
11 Auburn Tigers .6025
12 Texas A&M Aggies .4812
13 LSU Tigers .4630
14 South Carolina Gamecocks .4486
15 Texas Tech Red Raiders .3749
16 Fresno State Bulldogs .3669

Some thoughts:

Harris Interactive Poll Week Nine: Stanford’s Leap Makes A Statement

newhumanpolls

Stanford’s leap from No. 8 to No. 6 in this week’s Harris Interactive College Football Poll is the highlight of a all-new Harris Poll from 104 voters.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 27

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2590 .996
2 Oregon Ducks 2492 .958
3 Florida State Seminoles 2386 .918
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 2301 .885
5 Baylor Bears 2130 .819
6 Stanford Cardinal 2035 .783
7 Miami Hurricanes 1997 .768
8 Clemson Tigers 1767 .780
9 Missouri Tigers 1510 .581
10 Oklahoma Sooners 1475 .567
11 Auburn Tigers 1453 .559
12 LSU Tigers 1408 .542

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Nine: Baylor Being Heard

newhumanpolls

Though Baylor’s ranking is unchanged in this week’s USA Today Coaches’ Poll, the Bears are certainly making their case as the calendar approaches November.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 27

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1542 .995
2 Oregon Ducks 1483 .957
3 Florida State Seminoles 1419 .915
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 1375 .887
5 Baylor Bears 1293 .834
6 Miami Hurricanes 1190 .768
7 Stanford Cardinal 1182 .763
8 Clemson Tigers 1064 .686
9 Oklahoma Sooners 933 .602
10 Missouri Tigers 834 .538
11 Auburn Tigers 804 .519
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys 803 .518

Projected BCS Standings: Oregon To Claim No. 2 In Second BCS Standings of 2013

BCSWeek2

Time seems to run out slowly when you’re making a chase for a BCS bid. Whether it’s on the clock to hold on to the last-second victory or the weeks ticking slowly by in the last BCS year.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

Teams from around the country had little trouble dispatching of less difficult foes, but for a few teams, the time needed to get victories on Saturday must have seemed to move extra slow.

And in the case of Missouri, a crushing loss was probably already a death sentence for the season as far as a national title game bid is concerned.

So what else, if anything, did we learn this week? Mostly that the nation’s top BCS teams in its first iteration — Alabama, Oregon and Florida State — are very good. This week, like last week, we’ll see a fight to the finish for No. 2 between Oregon and Florida State.

The better victory this week belongs to the Ducks and not the Seminoles, and with that in mind, expect Oregon to make enough headway in the computers and the human polls to end the Seminoles one-week run at No. 2. Oregon is projected to take back that spot this week.

Elsewhere, the Ducks’ Pac-12 mates Stanford and Big 12 surprise Baylor will be the likely beneficiaries of the Missouri loss, as the Cardinal and Bears will fight for the No. 5 spot, along with Miami. Also look out for Oklahoma, fresh off a victory over previous No. 10 Texas Tech.

An interesting fight is also breaking out between Fresno State and Northern Illinois. Fresno State might remain ahead of Northern Illinois after the Bulldogs finished of San Diego State in OT and the Huskies had an easy victory, mostly because of the lateness of Fresno’s game. But the truly interesting part will come when the BCS rankings wind down. Who will be in front? For now we’re projecting that the Huskies will, even with Fresno possibly taking these first two weeks as the leader in the BCS buster clubhouse.

It’ll all be somewhat familiar when the second BCS rankings are released tomorrow, but with some changes that could play into the chase for the title game when the season winds up. The minutia becomes all the more important this time of year. Good thing we’re here to take a look at it.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Two (October 27)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
6 Baylor Bears
7 Miami Hurricanes
8 Clemson Tigers
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Missouri Tigers
12 Auburn Tigers

First 2013 BCS Rankings: Alabama & FSU Lead Gang Into The Final Year

 

biggerbcslogoJust one BCS standings in and we already have a rumble at the top on our hands — the BCS isn’t going to leave without a fight.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

As expected, No. 2 Florida State  and No. 2 Oregon bunch together tightly in the race for the No. 2 spot in the inaugural BCS standings of 2013, both chasing convincing No. 1 Alabama.

The Seminoles’ victory over Clemson combined with Oregon’s long-standing position as the nation’s No. 2 team conspired to provide us with some real drama that could continue to play out the rest of the season if the two squads continue to win.

Oregon remained at No. 2 in the polls, but Florida State took full advantage of some major upsets around the board, grabbing the best computer support in the country and No. 3 in both the Coaches’ and Harris polls. For now, Florida State lands just .0028 ahead of Oregon.

If Florida State had received even a .01 smaller share of the computer rankings, Oregon would have been your No. 2 team this week.

But what if the Ducks and Seminoles don’t keep winning? The first BCS standings have given us a window into what we could expect. Ohio State’s almost quiet No. 4 comes as no surprise, as the Buckeyes have run through the early part of the season undefeated.

No. 5 Missouri and No. 8 Baylor are some of the handful of surprises in the first set of BCS rankings, as is No. 7 Miami. All three teams were the beneficiaries of the upset-filled weekend, and Missouri carries a very strong computer ranking into the BCS part of the season.

We’re in the home stretch now, believe it or not. Just seven weeks left of the BCS. Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming weeks for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the first BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week One — October 20th

Rank Team BCS Score
1 Alabama Crimson Tide .9841
2 Florida State Seminoles .9348
3 Oregon Ducks .9320
4 Ohio State Buckeyes .8553
5 Missouri Tigers .8219
6 Stanford Cardinal .7414
7 Miami Hurricanes .7200
8 Baylor Bears .7120
9 Clemson Tigers .6249
10 Texas Tech Red Raiders .6220
11 Auburn Tigers .5058
12 UCLA Bruins .4807
13 LSU Tigers .4552
14 Virginia Tech Hokies .4408
15 Oklahoma Sooners .4204
16 Texas A&M Aggies .3666

Some thoughts:

Harris Interactive Poll Week Eight: Florida State Leads An Upward Charge

newhumanpolls

Much like in the Coaches’ Poll, Florida State grabs a big chunk of support from the Harris Interactive Poll voters, sliding into the third spot and challenging Oregon for the No. 2 spot.

Harris Interactive College Football Poll – October 20

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2615 .996
2 Oregon Ducks 2520 .960
3 Florida State Seminoles 2401 .915
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 2321 .884
5 Baylor Bears 2038 .776
6 Missouri Tigers 2026 .772
7 Miami Hurricanes 2008 .765
8 Stanford Cardinal 1952 .744
9 Texas Tech Red Raiders 1662 .633
10 Clemson Tigers 1616 .616
11 UCLA Bruins 1323 .504
12 LSU Tigers 1212 .462

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week Eight: Florida State Makes Its Move

newhumanpolls

Florida State’s win over Clemson gives the Seminoles just the bounce they need to jump to No. 3 in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll right before the first BCS standings.

A weekend of upsets and surprises allows for a completely different looking Coaches’ Poll on this first BCS weekend of the 2013 season, but no shift is more important or impressive than Florida State’s, as the Seminoles will make a big play tonight for No. 2 in the first BCS standings of the season.

Elsewhere, Baylor, Miami and Missouri hop into the top eight with ease after teams clear out of the way.

USA Today Coaches’ Poll – October 20

Rank Team Votes Share of Vote
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1544 .996
2 Oregon Ducks 1482 .956
3 Florida State Seminoles 1410 .909
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 1382 .892
5 Baylor Bears 1255 .810
6 Miami Hurricanes 1186 .765
7 Missouri Tigers 1184 .765
8 Stanford Cardinal 1117 .721
9 Texas Tech Red Raiders 981 .633
10 Clemson Tigers 913 .589
11 UCLA Bruins 710 .458
12 Oklahoma Sooners 695 .448

Projected BCS Standings: FSU, Oregon Already Jockeying For No. 2 In First BCS Standings of 2013

BCSWeek1

What is it that you don’t like about the BCS? The time to complain is kind of running out … this week marks the beginning of the end for the system, the era and the formula as we know it.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

And wouldn’t you know it, on our very first weekend of our very last BCS year, we’re going to get some drama right off the bat. There’s no doubt what victory this weekend was the most impressive, that’s Florida State with a big win over previous No. 3 Clemson.

And yet, we have last week’s and this young season’s No. 2, Oregon, as dominating as ever, still undefeated and still putting up huge performances week after week. So which will be No. 2 when the BCS is finally released tomorrow?

Well, one of the things people have enjoyed complaining about most in this era of the BCS is voter laziness. And though tomorrow will likely show a nice push toward supporting Florida State’s superb record thus far, we’re projecting that it will be Oregon at No. 2 when the BCS is released on the strength of the voter support that remains in the Ducks’ camp. Even with the expected bump in computer poll support, Florida State might still end up just short of Oregon.

That might quell some of the traditional anger that could be associated with a shock like Florida State at No. 2 after barely cracking the top five at all this year. But even if Florida State does make up the minuscule ground they’re projected to still be lacking against Oregon (currently less than .0030 points) — the future is actually brighter in Oregon’s corner. This is a conversation will hold some water for much of the rest of the season if the teams keep reeling off wins.

Elsewhere, expect surprise powers Baylor, Missouri and Miami to be dancing inside the top 12 this week, with Baylor and Missouri taking cracks at the top five spots, where as they were outside that potential territory just a week ago. Teams like UCLA, LSU, Clemson, Louisville, South Carolina and Texas A&M will suffer for poorly timed losses on this first BCS weekend of 2013, though bounce backs are more than possible for most of those teams, including for Stanford, which dispatched of UCLA.

We’re in it for final time this year. It’s going to get even more interesting than this, and we’re going to be covering it all. Strap if for one hell of a last ride.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 20)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
6 Baylor Bears
7 Stanford Cardinal
8 Clemson Tigers
9 Miami Hurricanes
10 LSU Tigers
11 UCLA Bruins
12 Texas A&M Aggies