Projected BCS Standings: BCS Becoming More Clear in Sixth Standings of 2013

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A week after very nearly knocking off Ohio State from its perch at No. 3, Baylor falls by the wayside with a loss to Oklahoma State. Bad news for the Bears, and good news for the Buckeyes, which can slide comfortably into the No. 3 spot knowing they’re without equal when it comes to a ‘replacement’ pick for the title game.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Auburn Tigers
5 Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

Of course, holding those poll positions are Alabama and Florida State, sitting comfortably after a couple of strong wins. After the Buckeyes, however? It’s a mess

Now with more than just a handful of once-beaten teams on the BCS roster, the voters will have some choosing to do. Surprisingly, Oregon no longer counts among the once-beaten after losing to Arizona, but a handful of Tigers, plus many more do still have that one-loss sheen.

Last week’s No. 6, Auburn, likely makes that leap into the top-four, thanking Baylor and Oregon on its way up. After that, Clemson and Missouri will battle it out for No. 5 — that race should be somewhat closer this week than it was last as the voting pieces are placed back to teams somewhat haphazardly.

Oklahoma State and Stanford will in the discussion, too, thanking Texas A&M for not making their lives quite as difficult as they could be.

Oh, and Ohio State could finally get some Big Ten company in the top-12 with the emergence of Michigan State, mostly moving up because other teams are getting out of the way, fast.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Six (November 24th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Ohio State Buckeyes
4 Auburn Tigers
5 Missouri Tigers
6 Clemson Tigers
7 Oklahoma State Cowboys
8 Stanford Cardinal
9 Baylor Bears
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Oregon Ducks
12 Michigan State Spartans
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Projected BCS Standings: Baylor Can Make Its Move In Fifth BCS Standings of 2013

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Funny how one week’s marquee victory can mean far less given the next weekend’s results. Stanford, a one-loss team that seemingly had it all — an early loss, a big win over a conference rival and top-10 team, and a high BCS ranking above undefeated teams — was unable to hold off USC at the Coliseum, and sees its already slim BCS title hopes falter.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Baylor Bears
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Oregon Ducks
Scroll down for more

Though the Stanford loss is intriguing, especially given the way the Pac-12 could resolve itself this season, the real drama will come at the No. 3 spot.

Baylor will finally see its odd stalling behind a one-loss teams come to an end and will move up. But how far? Can the Bears take the No. 3 spot?

The debate is now front and center. Is Baylor or Ohio State the best replacement pick for a national title game should Alabama or Florida State lose?

The fascinating thing is this — with Stanford’s loss, a lot of computer support becomes readily available for Baylor. As does human poll support. Some team is going to have to pick up those pieces and Ohio State chose the wrong weekend to win ugly against Illinois.

Much of that voter confidence will go Baylor’s way, especially after the Bears posted more than 60 points against formerly hot Texas Tech. And, Baylor already had some computer ground left to make up. This might be the weekend the Bears do it.

So can Baylor take No. 3? We’ll say yes.

Also, added bonus — four top teams, all undefeated? Sounds like a ringing endorsement for the College Football Playoff, right?

The one-loss squads with something to prove, including Oregon and Auburn, will come next. Don’t be surprised to see Auburn make a run at the No. 5 spot, which we’re projecting will be filled by Oregon. Though the Tigers might come up a bit short, a win over high competition like Georgia is likely to net Auburn some ground. Plus, with the ranks of the truly elite teams dwindling, now is the time to take a look at the broader picture

Clemson and Missouri, along with Stanford, will likely make up the rest of the top nine, as last week’s No. 10 South Carolina trailed significantly in its hope to breaking into the top 10.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Five (November 17th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Florida State Seminoles
3 Baylor Bears
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Oregon Ducks
6 Auburn Tigers
7 Clemson Tigers
8 Missouri Tigers
9 Stanford Cardinal
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Texas A&M Aggies
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys

Projected BCS Standings: Oregon Will Grab No. 3 Spot in Fourth BCS Rankings of 2012

It feels like it’s about time. After three weeks of watching teams pass it by, Oregon will finally return the favor — and will pass Notre Dame for the No. 3 spot in tomorrow’s BCS standings.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Georgia Bulldogs
Scroll down for more

A victim of poor computer rankings as a result of somewhat lacking strength of schedule, a victory over USC should do the trick for Oregon, giving the Ducks the boost they need in all three components to pass Notre Dame tomorrow.

Just like in weeks past, however, Oregon will continue to trail No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Kansas State, which will both retain their spots occupied last weekend. But watch carefully — the distance between Oregon and Kansas State will begin to shrink tomorrow. How much it shrinks will be vitally important to any hope the Ducks have of catching the Wildcats for that elusive to this point No. 2 spot.

After Notre Dame’s tense, close victory over Pittsburgh the Fighting Irish will fall to No. 4, but will not fall too far behind the Ducks for the No. 3 spot, still well within reach of a title game berth if two of the three teams ahead of them should slip up.

Georgia’s big victory over Ole Miss combined with LSU’s loss to Alabama should bring the Bulldogs into the BCS top five for the first time this season, making Georgia the class of the one-loss teams fighting for BCS hopes as the season hits its home stretch.

The Bulldogs’ appearance only begins a cavalcade of SEC squads that help round out the top 10, as Florida will likely climb back to No. 6, followed by LSU and South Carolina.

Pesky and undefeated Louisville will likely crack the top-nine this week, getting just enough from their victory over Temple to pass by idle Florida State, which is likely to land at No. 10.

Oregon State and Oklahoma are likely to round out the top 12 in some order, bunched

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Four (November 4th)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Kansas State Wildcats
3 Oregon Ducks
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 Florida Gators
7 LSU Tigers
8 South Carolina Gamecocks
9 Louisville Cardinals
10 Florida State Seminoles
11 Oklahoma Sooners
12 Oregon State Beavers

Projected BCS Standings: Alabama, Oregon to lead the way in first BCS rankings of 2012

For the football played, the losses suffered and wins gained, how much have we actually learned about the contenders from opening weekend to today?

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida Gators
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Kansas State Wildcats
Scroll down for more

Weekend to weekend, the upsets have occurred, but we stand at the precipice of the season’s first BCS rankings seeing the same kind of BCS déjà vu. For better or worse much will be familiar in Sunday’s first BCS rankings of the year.

An SEC team will debut at the top of the BCS. Alabama has made that much certain with the way they’ve run the table thus far this year. Relatively shoddy (fourth or fifth as opposed to first) computer support leading up to the first BCS rankings should be of no concern to Alabama’s hopes or the Tide faithful. Play like this against the SEC, and the spot so familiar to the Tide at this point will remain their’s.

Chasing the Tide is a group so wide that the season will have plenty of intrigue down the stretch. First among the contenders is, unsurprisingly, No. 2 Oregon, which enjoys a wide-spread support among pollsters and growing support in the computers as the season progresses. Again, the recipe for the Ducks (you may need to read that twice) is to win out to make the championship game.

The real intrigue will likely start at No. 3. The two combatants? Familiar names, but unfamiliar in recent seasons to the BCS conversation — Notre Dame and Florida. Both enjoy heavy support in the computers. And with West Virginia and South Carolina out of the way in the human elements, the two will battle tightly for the No. 3 spot tomorrow. Either could take it. For now, let’s go with the SEC’s wider-spread support in the computers and among voters to give the Gators the edge they’ll need to grab the No. 3 spot.

The Big 12 deposits a few teams in the top 12 tomorrow, starting with the conference’s lone remaining undefeated, Kansas State. The Wildcats could easily claim the fifth spot, chased by the top-tier group of one-lossers. That group includes South Carolina, LSU and Oklahoma, all of which will be rewarded heavily for staying mostly on course — and having some key wins across the board in recent weeks (South Carolina over Georgia, LSU over South Carolina, Oklahoma over Texas). Any of those three could land in the spots six through nine. But for now, the SEC teams will still get the benefit of the doubt.

So we come to the symbolic midway point of the college football season — the first BCS rankings. Are there many surprises? No. But the intrigue remains. You’ll want to stay tuned.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 14)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida Gators
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Kansas State Wildcats
6 LSU Tigers
7 South Carolina Gamecocks
8 Oregon State Beavers
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 USC Trojans
11 West Virginia Mountaineers
12 Georgia Bulldogs

Final Projected BCS Standings: LSU and Oklahoma State to Meet For BCS Title

Fourteen weeks, and there seems no quelling of the debate and uproar about who deserves what in the college football landscape. That being said, however, the 2011 regular season is complete, and now our attention must turn to the BCS standings and bowls to be announced tomorrow.

The thing that is causing the most debate, of course, is the possible rematch awaiting the country in the BCS title game. And for those who are against it, do be prepared to weather the storm of the rematch, but a swaying of opinion has occurred, and for what it’s worth, Oklahoma State should be on its way to the BCS title game.

Alabama will just miss out on its chance at a rematch, finishing at No. 3, with Stanford just behind the Cowboys at No. 4.

So. Why? It comes down to persuasion. Virginia Tech needs to be replaced on ballots. Oklahoma State whipped Oklahoma up and down the field. Houston is no longer a factor. Boise State can be forgotten. Oklahoma State stands as the team most of the country (save the Alabama faithful) wants to see get a chance.

The pollsters can make up the difference. And I believe they will. There’s no need for Oklahoma State to leap Alabama. They just need to be very close. And they will be. Oklahoma State can make up some distance in the computers.

Of course, this is a simple projection, and nothing about it is absolute. There are, however, other components which are more absolute when the BCS pairings are announced tomorrow.

  • Oregon, as champion of the Pac-12, is headed to the Rose Bowl to face Wisconsin, the Big Ten’s conference champion.
  • Clemson is on its way to the Orange Bowl as the ACC champion, as the ACC is bound to the bowl unless the ACC champ is playing in the national title game.
  • West Virginia will likely be the recipient of the Big East’s BCS bowl bid. After sharing the regular season crown in the conference with Cincinnati and Louisville, the Mountaineers will assuredly win the tiebreaker for the conference’s bid by finishing highest among the three teams in the final BCS rankings.
  • TCU, if it can finish ahead of the highest ranking Big East team and ahead of Southern Miss, which is likely, and vault into the top 16 will receive a BCS bowl bid as the highest-ranking non-AQ conference champion that ranks ahead of a AQ conference champion in the top 16.

Oklahoma State will be assured of a BCS bid. But will it be in the title game? If these projections hold up, it will be. Stanford at No. 4, will not be afforded an automatic bid to the BCS as it was last season at No. 4, but will likely be a very eligible team for any BCS bowl to select.

Boise State, Kansas State, Michigan, Houston and Oklahoma will all also likely be eligible come tomorrow. Who will take those remaining slots? Michigan is likely to cross the top 14 threshold to get into the BCS, but TCU is likely to miss out. Check out our BCS Bowl projections here.

That’s the bowl picture — it’s messy at best — but the BCS standings shouldn’t be so difficult to digest when they’re released tomorrow.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of all of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Eight (December 4th)

Rank Team
1 LSU Tigers
2 Oklahoma State Cowboys
3 Alabama Crimson Tide
4 Stanford Cardinal
5 Boise State Broncos
6 Arkansas Razorbacks
7 Oregon Ducks
8 Kansas State Wildcats
9 Wisconsin Badgers
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Baylor Bears
12 Oklahoma Sooners

Projected BCS Standings: LSU, Alabama Top Seventh BCS Rankings of 2011 to Set Up Drama-Filled Final Weekend

After last week, it felt like it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see every favorite in the nation get upset and throw the BCS into chaos once again.

It wasn’t to be, however, as favorites around the country prevailed throughout the extended Thanksgiving weekend, although some did have some trouble in the early goings and set up a drama-filled final weekend.

Even LSU had relatively little trouble with last week’s BCS No. 3 Arkansas. So the BCS standings aren’t going to be very shaken up come Sunday night, but the implications haven’t been bigger this season.

Not surprisingly, LSU and Alabama will be set to stay atop the rankings. Alabama, despite missing the chance to play in the SEC title game, is likely secure in its positioning to make it to the BCS title game. Of the five teams to finish in the top two in the seventh BCS standings who didn’t play in the season’s final week in the BCS era, all have made the title game.

LSU will still have to beat Georgia to absolutely secure its spot in the title game, but of course, there are scenarios where a loss would still give the Tigers a chance at the BCS national title. Who would take LSU’s place if they were to fall out of the picture? Well, it wont be Arkansas, which will take a fall after its loss to LSU, but it shouldn’t be too harsh. Arkansas’s computer support should remain strong, and a loss to LSU in Baton Rouge shouldn’t sway voters away from the Razorbacks too much.

It could be new No. 3 Oklahoma State, who will be the main benefactor from Arkansas’s drop. With strong computers support and likely resurgent human poll support, the Cowboys might recover nicely from their loss to Iowa State last weekend. And with a strong victory over Oklahoma next weekend, the Cowboys will have a compelling case for a shot at the BCS title. But a compelling case might not be enough  to overcome behemoths Alabama and LSU this season.

Virginia Tech, Stanford and Arkansas should fill in spots four through six, followed by Boise State and Houston, with little differential changes from last weekend, the only difference being Arkansas’ small drop. Many will be looking for BCS bids next weekend, both at-large and automatic, including Virginia Tech’s attempt at another ACC champion; Stanford and Boise State’s quests for at-large bids, and Houston’s hopes for the automatic bid given to the highest-ranking non-AQ conference champion.

Oklahoma and Oregon should come in at Nos. 9 and 10, although either could finish ahead of the other depending on human poll support tomorrow as the distance between the Ducks and Sooners was quite small last weekend.

Next weekend will be full of important championship games and BCS positioning battles. Some of the highlights and their implications:

  • SEC Championship Game: LSU vs. Georgia (LSU victory gives Tigers BCS title game bid. A Georgia victory? Chaos.)
  • ACC Championship Game: Virginia Tech vs. Clemson (Orange Bowl bid on the line)
  • Big Ten Championship Game: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin (Rose Bowl bid on the line)
  • Pac-12 Championship Game: UCLA vs. Oregon (Rose Bowl bid on the line)
  • C-USA Championship Game: Southern Miss vs. Houston (Houston victory gives Cougars the automatic BCS bid)
  • Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State (Fiesta Bowl bid on the line, and possible title game bid for Oklahoma State)
  • West Virginia vs. South Florida and Cincinnati vs. UConn (Victories by WVU and Cincinnati make the BCS the tiebreaker for the Big East’s automatic BCS bowl bid)

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of all of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Seven (November 27th)

Rank Team
1 LSU Tigers
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Oklahoma State Cowboys
4 Virginia Tech Hokies
5 Stanford Cardinal
6 Arkansas Razorbacks
7 Boise State Broncos
8 Houston Cougars
9 Oregon Ducks
10 Oklahoma Sooners
11 South Carolina Gamecocks
12 Kansas State Wildcats

Projected BCS Standings: LSU, Alabama Lead to Lead the Way in Sixth BCS Rankings of 2011 While Chaos Reigns

Editor’s Note: These projections are for the November 20th, BCS week six standings, to see the November 27th, week seven projections, CLICK HERE.

There are college football weekends. And then there are the college football weekends we’ll remember as season-defining.

This was one of them. Oklahoma State, Oregon, Oklahoma and Clemson were all victims of upsets in one of the most incredible, unpredictable and awe-inspiring weekends in recently college football history.

When it was all over, however, the talk turned immediately to the BCS. What more can be said about the chaos we’re about to encounter? A whole lot.

More than obviously, LSU will be on top once again. The Tigers are aiming to go wire-to-wire with this thing. Next, and not surprisingly, you’ll find Alabama, the beneficiaries of teams falling all around them, while the Tide were barely punished after their one loss of the season — to LSU.

Third you ask? Well, how about another SEC West team, Arkansas. All but forgotten in the commotion over ‘Bama and LSU, the Razorbacks just keep climbing and will be right in the middle of the conversation come tomorrow. And with a game against LSU looming Thanksgiving weekend, we’re not out of the woods in terms of controversy and chaos quite yet with the Razorbacks.

The teams that took that big fall this weekend will start filling in spots after that. Oklahoma State, Oregon and Oklahoma will be a part the next sector of teams, all with lots of work to be done if they want to even think about the title game. Oklahoma State does have the computer support to maintain overall BCS support, and will likely just fall just two spots to No. 4.

Virginia Tech and Stanford, forgotten in all of the mess of the BCS this season, will both be suddenly thrust back into the conversation, although on the outside looking in in terms of a birth into the national title game.

The non-AQ darlings, Boise State and Houston round out the top 10, although it is the Cougars, and not the Broncos, in the driver’s seat for the automatic bid afforded to the top ranking conference champion of a non-AQ conference. Neither has the computer support to break into the title picture anymore.

It’s gotten as crazy as it has ever been this late in the season. Could we actually have a rematch in the BCS title game? We’ll just have to watch these last two weekends of college football with bated breath.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day tomorrow @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of all of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the BCS standing will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Six (November 20th)

Rank Team
1 LSU Tigers
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Arkansas Razorbacks
4 Oklahoma State Cowboys
5 Stanford Cardinal
6 Virginia Tech Hokies
7 Oregon Ducks
8 Oklahoma Sooners
9 Boise State Broncos
10 Houston Cougars
11 South Carolina Gamecocks
12 Clemson Tigers