Projected BCS Standings: Oregon To Claim No. 2 In Second BCS Standings of 2013

BCSWeek2

Time seems to run out slowly when you’re making a chase for a BCS bid. Whether it’s on the clock to hold on to the last-second victory or the weeks ticking slowly by in the last BCS year.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
Scroll down for more

Teams from around the country had little trouble dispatching of less difficult foes, but for a few teams, the time needed to get victories on Saturday must have seemed to move extra slow.

And in the case of Missouri, a crushing loss was probably already a death sentence for the season as far as a national title game bid is concerned.

So what else, if anything, did we learn this week? Mostly that the nation’s top BCS teams in its first iteration — Alabama, Oregon and Florida State — are very good. This week, like last week, we’ll see a fight to the finish for No. 2 between Oregon and Florida State.

The better victory this week belongs to the Ducks and not the Seminoles, and with that in mind, expect Oregon to make enough headway in the computers and the human polls to end the Seminoles one-week run at No. 2. Oregon is projected to take back that spot this week.

Elsewhere, the Ducks’ Pac-12 mates Stanford and Big 12 surprise Baylor will be the likely beneficiaries of the Missouri loss, as the Cardinal and Bears will fight for the No. 5 spot, along with Miami. Also look out for Oklahoma, fresh off a victory over previous No. 10 Texas Tech.

An interesting fight is also breaking out between Fresno State and Northern Illinois. Fresno State might remain ahead of Northern Illinois after the Bulldogs finished of San Diego State in OT and the Huskies had an easy victory, mostly because of the lateness of Fresno’s game. But the truly interesting part will come when the BCS rankings wind down. Who will be in front? For now we’re projecting that the Huskies will, even with Fresno possibly taking these first two weeks as the leader in the BCS buster clubhouse.

It’ll all be somewhat familiar when the second BCS rankings are released tomorrow, but with some changes that could play into the chase for the title game when the season winds up. The minutia becomes all the more important this time of year. Good thing we’re here to take a look at it.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Two (October 27)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Stanford Cardinal
6 Baylor Bears
7 Miami Hurricanes
8 Clemson Tigers
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 Missouri Tigers
12 Auburn Tigers
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Projected BCS Standings: FSU, Oregon Already Jockeying For No. 2 In First BCS Standings of 2013

BCSWeek1

What is it that you don’t like about the BCS? The time to complain is kind of running out … this week marks the beginning of the end for the system, the era and the formula as we know it.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

And wouldn’t you know it, on our very first weekend of our very last BCS year, we’re going to get some drama right off the bat. There’s no doubt what victory this weekend was the most impressive, that’s Florida State with a big win over previous No. 3 Clemson.

And yet, we have last week’s and this young season’s No. 2, Oregon, as dominating as ever, still undefeated and still putting up huge performances week after week. So which will be No. 2 when the BCS is finally released tomorrow?

Well, one of the things people have enjoyed complaining about most in this era of the BCS is voter laziness. And though tomorrow will likely show a nice push toward supporting Florida State’s superb record thus far, we’re projecting that it will be Oregon at No. 2 when the BCS is released on the strength of the voter support that remains in the Ducks’ camp. Even with the expected bump in computer poll support, Florida State might still end up just short of Oregon.

That might quell some of the traditional anger that could be associated with a shock like Florida State at No. 2 after barely cracking the top five at all this year. But even if Florida State does make up the minuscule ground they’re projected to still be lacking against Oregon (currently less than .0030 points) — the future is actually brighter in Oregon’s corner. This is a conversation will hold some water for much of the rest of the season if the teams keep reeling off wins.

Elsewhere, expect surprise powers Baylor, Missouri and Miami to be dancing inside the top 12 this week, with Baylor and Missouri taking cracks at the top five spots, where as they were outside that potential territory just a week ago. Teams like UCLA, LSU, Clemson, Louisville, South Carolina and Texas A&M will suffer for poorly timed losses on this first BCS weekend of 2013, though bounce backs are more than possible for most of those teams, including for Stanford, which dispatched of UCLA.

We’re in it for final time this year. It’s going to get even more interesting than this, and we’re going to be covering it all. Strap if for one hell of a last ride.

Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 20)

Rank Team
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Florida State Seminoles
4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 Missouri Tigers
6 Baylor Bears
7 Stanford Cardinal
8 Clemson Tigers
9 Miami Hurricanes
10 LSU Tigers
11 UCLA Bruins
12 Texas A&M Aggies

Q&A Session: The 2013 BCS and College Football Season

Some of the more common questions about the upcoming 2013 college football season answered here:

Q. Playoffs? Now? Please?

A. Just one more year college football fans. This year is your final chance to say goodbye to the BCS!

Q. When will the first BCS standings be released in 2013? What’s the rest of the release schedule?

A. The first BCS standings will be released the Sunday following Week 8 action, Oct. 20.

The BCS will then release rankings for the rest of the season as follows:

BCS Week Two: Oct. 27
BCS Week Three: Nov. 3
BCS Week Four: Nov. 10
BCS Week Five: Nov. 17
BCS Week Six: Nov. 24
BCS Week Seven: Dec. 1
Final BCS Standings: Dec. 8

Bowl pairings for the BCS and non-BCS bowls will also be released Dec. 8.

Q. How many conferences are there?

A. After the Western Athletic Conference disbanded, we are left with six AQ conferences and four non-AQ conferences. Read more below.

Q. What teams switched conferences this season?

A. The following 18 teams, including members of the disbanded WAC, changed football conference affiliation or became independent before the start of the 2013 college football season:

Pittsburgh Panthers — Big East to ACC
Syracuse Orange
— Big East to ACC
UCF Knights
— C-USA to American
Houston Cougars
  — C-USA to American
Memphis Tigers
 — C-USA to American
SMU Mustangs
 — C-USA to American
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs — WAC to C-USA
UT-San Antonio Roadrunners — WAC to C-USA
FIU Panthers — Sun Belt to C-USA
North Texas Mean Green — Sun Belt to C-USA
FAU Owls — Sun Belt to C-USA
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders — Sun Belt to C-USA
San Jose State Spartans — WAC to Mountain West
Utah State Aggies — WAC to Mountain West
Texas State Bobcats — WAC to Sun Belt
Georgia State Panthers — FCS to Sun Belt
Idaho Vandals — WAC to Independent
New Mexico State Aggies — WAC to Independent

Q. What is this year’s BCS bowl selection order?

A. After conference contracts and the BCS title game requirements fill, the bowls will select at-large teams in this order:

1. Orange Bowl
2. Sugar Bowl
3. Fiesta Bowl

You can find more information about the BCS bowl selection process at the BCS Bowls page.

Q. What are the “automatically qualifying” BCS conferences?

A. There are six AQ BCS conferences, thus named because the champions of those conferences are automatically awarded BCS bowl bidsThe six conferences are the American Athletic Conference, Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and Southeastern Conference (SEC).

Q. What are the “non-automatically qualifying” BCS conferences?

A. There are four non-AQ conferences, named as such because their champions do not automatically qualify for BCS bowl bids. However, one champion from the non-AQ conferences will qualify for a BCS bowl bid if they rank in the top 12 in the last BCS standings, or if a non-BCS conference champion ranks higher than any BCS conference champion ranked among the top 16.

The four non-BCS conferences are the Conference USA (C-USA), the Mountain West Conference (MWC), the Sun Belt Conference and the Mid-American Conference (MAC).

Q. When are the conference championship games?

A. Conference championship games for the Pac-12, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, MAC, Mountain West and C-USA will be held during the last week of the college football season.

Q. Where is this year’s BCS National Championship Game?

A. The 2014 BCS National Championship Game will be played in Pasadena, Calif. on January 6, 2014. For a full bowl schedule visit the BCS and Non-BCS pages.

2012 BCS Selection Sunday Weekend Hub and Live Chat

After 14 heart-stopping weeks, the 2012 college football season is over, but now comes the fun part. Today, 70 spots in 35 bowl spots from the New Mexico Bowl to the BCS title game will officially be filled and finalized. And while some slots are already assured or all but guaranteed, others are still to be determined.

We’ll be here all day to answer any questions and will provide updates throughout the day here and on Twitter at @BCSKnowHow.

Chat live with us here, answer some general questions about the BCS bowl system, the BCS formula and other important information to get you through the day:

Leave questions here and on Twitter all day, or feel free to strike up a conversation with other readers. We’ll update  a Storify throughout the day with all the key developments.

[View the story “BCS selection Sunday stream” on Storify]

Projected BCS Standings: Quiet Across The Land As Notre Dame and Alabama Lead The Final BCS Rankings of 2012

The opportunity for chaos always stirs college football fans. And it looked like we were in store for some this year.

Projected Final BCS Rankings
Rank Team
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Florida Gators
4 Georgia Bulldogs
5 Oregon Ducks
Scroll down for more

Six top-flight SEC teams emerged early. Oregon, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Louisville and Florida State looked every bit the flag bearer for their conferences. Chaos was certainly coming.

Then it arrived in November in the form of unbeaten Alabama, Oregon and Kansas State suffering surprising first losses. But then all was quiet.

And when all was said and done in the 2012 college football season, it was pretty clear. Notre Dame, on the strength on an undefeated season, and Alabama, winners of the battle-testing SEC, will finish 1-2 in the final BCS standings and meet for the BCS title at the end of the expansive bowl season.

Championship weekend served as a clarifying moment for many of the thing college football fans thought we knew, but couldn’t guarantee. Alabama, Florida State, Stanford, Louisville, Wisconsin and Kansas State secured BCS bids in traditional fashion.

Florida, tomorrow’s No. 3 team will claim a bid as the top-ranked member of a AQ conference to not actually win that conference. Oregon, set to land at No. 5 with one overtime loss to Rose Bowl-bound Stanford, will almost certainly be snatched up by a BCS bowl right away. That’s nine.

Then that 10th and final bid.

Coming into the weekend it was all about the non-AQ and the chance at a BCS buster. But the hope will stop here. Not enough happened for the MAC champion Northern Illinois or MWC champion Boise State to make a BCS bowl bid. And so, for a second straight year, we will forgo the non-AQ storyline taker and have a set of BCS bowls with 10 AQ conference members.

The best shot the non-AQs had at a BCS bowl was Northern Illinois. And the Huskies will just miss out at No. 17. That’s the long and short of it.

We’ll be here to take you through the entire process tomorrow — human polls, computer rankings, bowl pairings and BCS rankings  Follow along @BCSKnowHow and right here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. We’ll put up a chat room for questions and general discussion, too.

Got all that? Hope so.

Here’s what the final BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Eight (December 2nd)

Rank Team
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Florida Gators
4 Georgia Bulldogs
5 Oregon Ducks
6 Kansas State Wildcats
7 Stanford Cardinal
8 LSU Tigers
9 Texas A&M Aggies
10 Oklahoma Sooners
11 South Carolina Gamecocks
12 Florida State Seminoles

BCS implications and strength of schedule worksheet for Week 14

So, what has your team accomplished in 2012?

With the season coming to a close on Saturday, now’s the time to take stock of what 2012 will be remembered for. Some teams have been short-changed, others have perhaps been given more than their fair. Most notably, at least one of the top six BCS teams this week will not make a BCS bowl, and perhaps more than one.

As the season draws down, we do have a bit of drama in the lower ranks of the BCS, with a non-AQ chase for a BCS buster bid. All that is explained further in our in-depth look at the battle, but for reference, we’ve included Kent State, Boise State and Northern Illinois in this week’s edition of the implications worksheet.

As we have all season, we compiled our implications and schedule strength worksheet suing the BCS rankings and Jeff Sagarin’s computer ranking to look at what the nation’s best teams have accomplished, where they’re headed and the potential pitfalls and dangers associated with their upcoming schedule.

What will you find here? The top eight BCS teams (or smaller, if the “striking distance” shrinks), along with their record and strength of schedule, according to Sagarin.

Each team is also listed with key games already played, and key games to come. Key games are any against the BCS top 25 or the Sagarin top 60. If teams are unlisted in the BCS, they are listed with their Sagarin rank, and SOS is Sagarin-based.

Games for the upcoming weekend are bolded.

Note: All teams are included in the Sagarin data, including bowl-ineligible teams.

BCS No. 1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) SOS: 30

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 8 Stanford Cardinal (10-2) SOS: 5 — Won 20-13
  • BCS No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) SOS: 11 — Won 30-13
  • BCS No. 19 Michigan Wolverines (8-4) SOS: 32 — Won 13-6
  • Sagarin No. 19 USC Trojans (7-5) SOS: 6 — Won 22-13
  • Sagarin No. 36 Michigan State Spartans (6-6) SOS: 29 — Won 20-3
  • Sagarin No. 44 BYU Cougars (7-5) SOS: 57 — Won 17-14
  • Sagarin No. 51 Miami Hurricanes (7-5) SOS: 45 — Won 41-3
  • Sagarin No. 58 Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) SOS: 49 — Won 20-17

Important games remaining:

  • None

BCS No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) SOS: 39

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 7 LSU Tigers (10-2) SOS: 27 — Won 21-17
  • BCS No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) SOS: 25 — Lost 29-24
  • BCS No. 19 Michigan Wolverines (8-4) SOS: 32 — Won 41-14
  • Sagarin No. 33 Ole Miss Rebels (6-6) SOS: 22 — Won 33-14
  • Sagarin No. 34 Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) SOS: 50 — Won 38-7
  • Sagarin No. 42 Missouri Tigers (5-7) SOS: 2 — Won 42-10
  • Sagarin No. 52 Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) SOS: 28 — Won 44-13

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (11-1) SOS: 42 — Dec. 1

BCS No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (11-1) SOS: 42

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 4 Florida Gators (11-1) SOS: 13 — Won 17-9
  • BCS No. 10 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) SOS: 34 — Lost 35-7
  • Sagarin No. 23 Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4) SOS: 40 — Won 48-3
  • Sagarin No. 33 Ole Miss Rebels (6-6) SOS: 22 — Won 37-10
  • Sagarin No. 42 Missouri Tigers (5-7) SOS: 2 — Won 41-20
  • Sagarin No. 52 Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) SOS: 28 — Won 51-44

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) SOS: 39 — Dec. 1

BCS No. 4 Florida Gators (11-1) SOS: 13

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (11-1) SOS: 42 — Lost 17-9
  • BCS No. 7 LSU Tigers (10-2) SOS: 27 — Won 14-6
  • BCS No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) SOS: 25 — Won 20-17
  • BCS No. 10 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) SOS: 34 — Won 44-11
  • BCS No. 13 Florida State Seminoles (10-2) SOS: 72 — Won 37-26
  • Sagarin No. 23 Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4) SOS: 40 — Won 31-17
  • Sagarin No. 42 Missouri Tigers (5-7) SOS: 2 — Won 14-7
  • Sagarin No. 52 Tennessee Volunteers (5-7) SOS: 28 — Won 37-20

Important games remaining:

  • None

BCS No. 5 Oregon Ducks (11-1) SOS: 31

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 8 Stanford Cardinal (10-2) SOS: 5 — Lost 17-14
  • BCS No. 15 Oregon State Beavers (8-3) SOS: 3 — Won 48-24
  • Sagarin No. 19 USC Trojans (7-5) SOS: 6 — Won 62-51
  • Sagarin No. 20 Arizona Wildcats (7-5) SOS: 8 — Won 49-0
  • BCS No. 25 Washington Huskies (7-5) SOS: 16 — Won 52-21
  • Sagarin No. 32 Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) SOS: 35 — Won 43-21
  • Sagarin No. 45 Frenso State Bulldogs (9-3) SOS: 103 — Won 42-25

Important games remaining:

  • None

BCS No. 6 Kansas State Wildcats (10-1) SOS: 24

Important games already played:

  • BCS No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) SOS: 11 — Won 24-19
  • Sagarin No. 21 West Virginia Mountaineers (6-5) SOS: 12 — Won 55-14
  • BCS No. 23 Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-4) SOS: 14 — Won 44-30
  • Sagarin No. 27 TCU Horned Frogs (7-4) SOS: 19 — Won 23-10
  • Sagarin No. 30 Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) SOS: 23 — Won 55-24
  • Sagarin No. 31 Baylor Bears (6-5) SOS: 7 — Lost 52-24
  • Sagarin No. 35 Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) SOS: 9 — Won 27-21

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 18 Texas Longhorns (8-3) SOS: 20 — Dec. 1

And for a bonus:

BCS No. 17 Kent State Golden Flashes (11-1) SOS: 122

Important games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 41 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-2) SOS: 92 — Won 35-23
  • Sagarin No. 43 Ball State Cardinals (9-3) SOS: 78 — Won 45-43

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 21 Northern Illinois Huskies (11-1) SOS: 129 — Nov. 30

BCS No. 20 Boise State Broncos (9-2) SOS: 113

Important games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 36 Michigan State Spartans (6-6) SOS: 29 — Lost 17-13
  • Sagarin No. 44 BYU Cougars (7-5) SOS: 57 — Won 7-6
  • Sagarin No. 45 Frenso State Bulldogs (9-3) SOS: 103 — Won 20-10
  • Sagarin No. 53 San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) SOS: 101 — Lost 21-19

Important games remaining:

  • None

BCS No. 21 Northern Illinois Huskies (11-1) SOS: 129

Important games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 43 Ball State Cardinals (9-3) SOS: 78 — Won 35-23
  • Sagarin No. 49 Toledo Rockets (9-3) SOS: 104 — Won 31-24

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 17 Kent State Golden Flashes (11-1) SOS: 122 — Nov. 30

BCS Busters: Kent State, Boise State and Northern Illinois Jockeying For BCS Bid, Will One Get It?

The Big East, MAC and Boise State have conspired. For the first time in the five-game BCS era, clause 3.B of the BCS selection process:

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

Is in play.

Sure, non-AQ teams have qualified for BCS bowls in the past using 3.A, but the cusp of the BCS automatic qualifiers has never bordered on the top 16 like it does as we draw 2012 to a close.

With the Big East champion guaranteed to land outside the top 16 in the final BCS rankings, if a non-AQ conference champion were to appear in the top 16, they’d be given a BCS bowl bid automatically.

And as you’ve more than likely heard, in the seventh and next-to-last BCS standings three non-AQ teams — Kent State, Boise State and Northern Illinois — appeared here as the three highest-ranking non-AQ (i.e. members of the aforementioned conferences) teams, each with a chance to win their conferences:

BCS Standings Week Seven — November 25th

Rank Team BCS Score
16 UCLA Bruins .3304
17 Kent State Golden Flashes .2512
18 Texas Longhorns .2492
19 Michigan Wolverines .2094
20 Boise State Broncos .2030
21 Northern Illinois Huskies .1936

No. 17 Kent State landed just outside of that all-important No. 16 spot. And the gap wasn’t insignificant. Nearly .08 behind No. 16 UCLA is no small margin to make up in one week.

But Kent State has one final push under its belt. The Golden Flashes will take on Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game on Thursday. Could a win over the No. 21 Huskies be enough to push Kent State in? Would they deserve it over Boise State, which seems relegated to secondary status in the line for a non-AQ bid?

To judge that, we took to comparing these three teams. As we have all season with the best of the BCS, we compiled a schedule strength and BCS implications worksheet for the three teams. As a reminder an “important game” is any against a BCS-ranked team or a Sagarin ELO_CHESS top-60 team. Here’s what we found:

BCS No. 17 Kent State Golden Flashes (11-1) SOS: 122

Important games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 41 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-2) SOS: 92 — Won 35-23
  • Sagarin No. 43 Ball State Cardinals (9-3) SOS: 78 — Won 45-43

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 21 Northern Illinois Huskies (11-1) SOS: 129 — Nov. 30

BCS No. 20 Boise State Broncos (9-2) SOS: 113

Important games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 36 Michigan State Spartans (6-6) SOS: 29 — Lost 17-13
  • Sagarin No. 44 BYU Cougars (7-5) SOS: 57 — Won 7-6
  • Sagarin No. 45 Frenso State Bulldogs (9-3) SOS: 103 — Won 20-10
  • Sagarin No. 53 San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) SOS: 101 — Lost 21-19

Important games remaining:

  • None

BCS No. 21 Northern Illinois Huskies (11-1) SOS: 129

Important games already played:

  • Sagarin No. 43 Ball State Cardinals (9-3) SOS: 78 — Won 35-23
  • Sagarin No. 49 Toledo Rockets (9-3) SOS: 104 — Won 31-24

Important games remaining:

  • BCS No. 17 Kent State Golden Flashes (11-1) SOS: 122 — Nov. 30

Each team has two wins against an “important” opponent, which indicates that a one-loss Boise State team would have a far better shot at cracking the BCS this year than either Northern Illinois or Kent State, but that’s just not what we’re faced with.

So what happens this week?

By playing each other, Kent State and Northern Illinois will decide the MAC Championship and give us the one team that has a solid chance at a BCS bowl. But it’s not guaranteed if other favorites win out. Here’s why:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Seven (November 25)

Team Anderson Billingsley Colley Massey Sagarin Wolfe
Kent State 20 15 15 28 37 15
Boise State 38 24 34 46 45 42
Northern Illinois 23 19 21 31 38 23

The computer support across the board is not as favorable as fans of these teams might hope, despite their one- or two-loss records. That’s a direct result of the lack of schedule strength illustrated in the worksheet.

Colley’s Matrix has a nice tool where you can add and subtract games from his rankings. Using that tool as an indicator, a win for either team, even Kent State, which already enjoys stronger computer support does little.

We added these results with favorites winning key final weekend showdowns. These games are the ones many non-AQ watchers are looking at:

  • Kansas State beats Texas
  • Stanford beats UCLA
  • Florida State beats Georgia Tech
  • Nebraska beats Wisconsin

When adding a Kent State victory to that combination, the Golden Flashes climb two spots in Colley — No. 16 to No. 14. When adding a Northern Illinois victory to that combination, the Huskies climbs five spots — No. 22 to No. 17.

Would a similar small bump across all six computers for either team be enough? It depends. Even with No. 16 UCLA moved out of the way, weaker computer scores could drag down the support of any non-AQ hopeful. It will differ computer to computer. That’s the nature of the BCS computers, but it’s nice to get an early look at the scenarios like this.

Of course, if any of the favorites are upset — namely losses by BCS No. 13 Florida State or No. 12 Nebraska — the road will be clearer and we might get that non-AQ team in the BCS despite the computers’ relative cynical look at Kent State and Northern Illinois’s 11-1 records. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.

With nearly all BCS spots guaranteed and Notre Dame sitting at home knowing they’re on their way to the BCS title game, many worried for a drama-free weekend. But fear not — drama we will have on the final weekend.