Baylor Claims Big 12 Title, Fiesta Bowl Bid

With a fun, ice-foggy 30-10 victory over Texas, Baylor took advantage of Oklahoma State’s early Saturday loss and a home crowd to claim the Big 12’s automatic BCS bowl bid. They’ll likely be headed to the Fiesta Bowl as the host of the traditional Big 12 bowl.

The Bears spent all season impressing the country, going well beyond what preseason expectations had expected in Waco. Led by quarterback Bryce Petty and an offense that wouldn’t stop, the Bears challenged for a national title bid up until just weeks before the end of the year when a loss to Oklahoma State dealt the Bears their only loss.

When Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State in Saturday’s Bedlam, it opened up the Texas-Baylor game as a de facto Big 12 title game, and the Bears were victorious. The Bears will now wait until Sunday night to find out who they will play in the Fiesta Bowl, which would likely be AAC champion UCF.

2013-14 BCS Bowl Selection Process Explained

More information can be found at the BCS Bowls page.

The BCS was created (by its own admission) to facilitate the meeting of the No. 1 and No. 2 team in the country in the BCS national title game. As we’ve figured out in the years since its creation, it does much, much more than that. The system also pairs the teams in its four bowls — the Rose, Orange, Sugar and Fiesta. But how exactly does that happen?

In the 2013 season as in past years, there is a specific selection process for the five games with slight changes year-to-year.

On Sunday, Dec. 8, representatives from the conferences, bowl games and schools meet to decide the matchups in the five bowl games in the following fashion. (We’ve added some context for this season):

Creating the BCS Selection Pool

• The champions of the six automatically qualifying BCS conferences — the ACC, AAC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC — all receive guaranteed bids to BCS games.
• The highest-ranking conference champion among the four non-AQ conferences — the C-USA, MAC, MWC and Sun Belt — in the final BCS rankings will be assured of a bid to a BCS bowl if they rank within the top 12 or within the top 16 and rank higher than any AQ conference champion.
  • Northern Illinois is in play here
• Notre Dame will automatically qualify for a BCS bowl if it finishes among the top eight in the final BCS standings.
  • Not happening this year.
• Any team to win nine games and finish within the top 14 of the final BCS standings will be BCS bowl-eligible. Teams in the top 18 with nine wins may also be eligible if there are not enough eligible teams in the top 14.
• Though more than two teams from a single conference can be BCS bowl eligible, no more than two teams from a single conference can be selected to play in the five BCS bowls.

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BCS National Championship Game Participants

• The teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS standings — regardless of conference affiliation or own-conference finish — will be placed in the BCS National Championship Game to be held in Pasadena, California in January 2014 as the selection committee’s first measure.

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Filling Conference Affiliation

• After the BCS title game is filled, the remaining BCS bowls will fill their bowls with their traditional “anchor host” conference champions as follows:
  • Rose Bowl: Big Ten and Pac-12
  • Fiesta Bowl: Big 12
  • Orange Bowl: ACC
  • Sugar Bowl: SEC

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Championship Replacement

• If any of the bowls’ traditional anchor hosts have been lost to the BCS National Championship Game, that bowl will be allowed to select a replacement team from the eligible pool before other picks are made.
• If more than one bowl loses a host conference champion, the bowl which lost the BCS No. 1 will choose its replacement from the pool first, followed by the bowl that lost the BCS No. 2.

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Filling the Rest of the Bowls

• Once all the affiliation and replacement selections have been made, the Sugar, Fiesta and Orange will select from among the remaining members of the eligibility pool in the following order:
  • Orange, Sugar, Fiesta
• One of these three bowls will be required to select the AAC champion and the automatically qualifying non-AQ champion if one exists.
• If not selected previously, a team which finishes third in the final BCS standings will automatically be awarded a spot in a BCS bowl if they are an at-large team and not an AQ BCS conference champion. If the third team is a conference champion, the fourth-place team will also be given this automatic eligibility if not selected previously.
• The three bowls will then select among the rest of the pool if no other teams automatically qualify for inclusion among the five bowls.

Seventh 2013 BCS Rankings: Ohio State Holds Off Auburn For No. 2

The BCS just wont go down without a fight. Just more than a week ago we might have been wondering what would happen if we ended the season with four undefeated teams. Now we’re trying to piece together what just happened and explaining how a one-loss team is on the verge of making BCS history.

Official BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Florida State Seminoles
2	Ohio State Buckeyes
3	Auburn Tigers
4	Alabama Crimson Tide
5	Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

After Alabama’s reign over college football was seemingly cut down by Auburn things got a bit wonky in the BCS.

Of course, this opened up the No. 1 spot for the first time this season, and fresh from an in-state victory over Florida, Florida State was more than happy to claim its spot atop these seventh BCS rankings.

Then things got interesting. Undefeated Ohio State was supposed to cruise to the No. 2 spot tonight. After all, no undefeated AQ conference team has ever been leapfrogged for a top-two spot in the BCS standings by a once-beaten team. But No. 3 Auburn made the No. 2 Buckeyes sweat for the second position tonight. And both teams will sweat for another week while we chew on the scenarios.

Auburn has Missouri to prepare for, Ohio State has Michigan State on its plate. Wins from both squads next weekend might set up a final chase for the No. 2 spot that will rival any of the best controversy the BCS has had to offer. We can sit back and enjoy it.

The rest of the BCS falls mostly into place as expected. Alabama claims No. 4 with SEC title game-bound Missouri rounding out the top-five. Oklahoma State, in the driver’s seat for a AQ bid for the Big 12, is in at No. 6, and Pac-12 title game combatant Stanford is in at No. 7. South Carolina, Baylor, Arizona State and Michigan State are setting themselves up for BCS eligibility while Oregon and rounds out the top 12.

Northern Illinois is just a win away from a second straight BCS buster bowl bid after entering the top 14 and seeing Fresno State lose at the most inopportune time.

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It’s all come down to one week. Not sure if we’re ready to say goodbye without one final blowout weekend.  Be sure to stay tuned to BCS Know How and @BCSKnowHow throughout the coming week for all the latest analysis and news.

Here’s the seventh BCS rankings of 2013:

BCS Standings Week Seven — December 1st

Rank	Team	BCS Score
1	Florida State Seminoles	.9948
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	.9503
3	Auburn Tigers	.9233
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	.8539
5	Missouri Tigers	.8428
6	Oklahoma State Cowboys	.7629
7	Stanford Cardinal	.7069
8	South Carolina Gamecocks	.7037
9	Baylor Bears	.6623
10	Michigan State Spartans	.6529
11	Arizona State Sun Devils	.5833
12	Oregon Ducks	.5321
13	Clemson Tigers	.5201
14	Northern Illinois Huskies	.4812
15	LSU Tigers	.4213
16	UCF Knights	.3838

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Some thoughts:

• BCS Know How’s Projected BCS vs. Actual BCS Rankings
  • 1-9 great, 10 not good, 11-12 good.

BCS Computer Rankings Week Seven: Ohio State Is A Force

Ohio State vaults to No. 2 in the BCS computer rankings after topping Michigan and watching Alabama fall by the wayside. Auburn is up to No. 3 in the computers and No. 3 in the BCS.

Here are the rankings of the six BCS computers:

Six BCS Computer Standings – BCS Week Seven (December 1)

Rank	Anderson	Billingsley	Colley	Massey	Sagarin	Wolfe
1	Florida St.	Florida St.	Auburn	Ohio St.	Florida St.	Florida St.
2	Ohio St.	Ohio St.	Ohio St.	Florida St.	N. Illinois	Ohio St.
3	Auburn	Auburn	Missouri	Auburn	Ohio St.	Auburn
4	Missouri	Alabama	Florida St.	Alabama	South Carolina	Alabama
5	Alabama	Missouri	Arizona St.	N. Illinois	Oklahoma St.	Missouri
6	Arizona St.	Stanford	Stanford	Arizona St.	Auburn	Arizona St.

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And the aggregate BCS computer rankings:

BCS Computer Rankings Aggregate – BCS Week Seven (December 1)

Rank	Team	Share of Vote
1	Florida State Seminoles	.990
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	.960
3	Auburn Tigers	.920
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	.840
5	Missouri Tigers	.830
6	Arizona State Sun Devils	.770
7	Stanford Cardinal	.740
8	South Carolina Gamecocks	.700
9	Oklahoma State Cowboys	.690
10	Northern Illinois	.670
11	Michigan State Spartans	.620
12	Baylor Bears	.600

Harris Interactive Poll Week 14: Auburn Looming At No. 3 Behind FSU, OSU

Florida State takes over at No. 1 in the Harris Poll, but with Auburn’s victory over Alabama, the Tigers position themselves for a last-week push for a spot in the national title game.

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Harris Interactive College Football Poll – December 1

Rank	Team	Votes	Share of Vote
1	Florida State Seminoles	2617	.997
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	2488	.948
3	Auburn Tigers	2422	.923
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	2262	.862
5	Missouri Tigers	2231	.850
6	Oklahoma State Cowboys	2083	.794
7	Stanford Cardinal	1873	.714
8	South Carolina Gamecocks	1841	.701
9	Baylor Bears	1778	.677
10	Michigan State Spartans	1758	.670
11	Clemson Tigers	1444	.550
12	Oregon Ducks	1398	.533

USA Today Coaches’ Poll Week 14: Florida State Takes Over

Florida State claims the USA Today Coaches’ Poll No. 1 spot after Alabama’s loss, while Auburn gains major ground on Ohio State, leaving the possibility for a title game bid for the Tigers well open.

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USA Today Coaches’ Poll – December 1

Rank	Team	Votes	Share of Vote
1	Florida State Seminoles	1546	.997
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	1462	.943
3	Auburn Tigers	1437	.927
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	1333	.860
5	Missouri Tigers	1315	.848
6	Oklahoma State Cowboys	1248	.805
7	Baylor Bears	1100	.710
7	South Carolina Gamecocks	1100	.710
9	Michigan State Spartans	1037	.669
10	Stanford Cardinal	1034	.667
11	Clemson Tigers	853	.550
12	Oregon Ducks	843	.544

Projected BCS Standings: Auburn’s Play For A Title Game Spot in Seventh Standings of 2013

The death knell for the BCS, perhaps most appropriately, will likely be one of controversy. The system would have it no other way.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Florida State Seminoles
2	Ohio State Buckeyes
3	Auburn Tigers
4	Alabama Crimson Tide
5	Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

Auburn’s stunning victory over Alabama likely clinched at least a somewhat controversial end to the BCS’s reign over college football as the Crimson Tide’s spot atop the college football world is now over.

Where, then, does that leave the BCS when the seventh standings of 2013 come out Sunday? Obviously for the first time this year, Alabama will not be No. 1. That honor will fall to Florida State, making its way back to the top of the BCS for the first time in what seems like ages.

Then it gets interesting. Clearly, Ohio State surviving its rivalry meeting with Michigan will be a huge boon to its national title game hopes. But Auburn’s victory over the previously unassailable Alabama could mean a huge swing of support in the Tigers’ direction. Who will land at No. 2 this week?

It’s likely Ohio State, as the voters will give the benefit of the doubt to the undefeated and long-revered Buckeyes. But Auburn will lurk at No. 3. And with a chance to clinch the SEC title next weekend and the growing tradition of SEC champs playing for the BCS title, Auburn’s not out of this yet. A win over likely BCS No. 5 Missouri next weekend paired with a close Ohio State victory in the Big Ten title game could cause the chaos we’ve come to expect.

After Missouri, it’s all battling for the at-large and automatic BCS bowl bids, including Northern Illinois’ quest for a second-straight bowl game bid and Clemson, Oregon, Michigan State and Baylor angling for eligibility and spots. Plus, the auto-bids given to the champs of the six AQ conferences.

Just one more BCS standing after Sunday, ever. The end is close!

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Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Seven (December 1st)

Rank	Team
1	Florida State Seminoles
2	Ohio State Buckeyes
3	Auburn Tigers
4	Alabama Crimson Tide
5	Missouri Tigers
6	Oklahoma State Cowboys
7	Stanford Cardinal
8	South Carolina Gamecocks
9	Baylor Bears
10	Clemson Tigers
11	Michigan State Spartans
12	Arizona State Sun Devils

Projected 2014 BCS Bowls — December 1

The BCS always did cause lively debates, most of which were reliant upon projections. That’s why a site like this could even exist. What would happen if a team won out? Or if a top team lost?

BCS Bowl Projections
Bowl	Matchup
Title Game	Florida State vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl	Stanford vs. Michigan State
Sugar Bowl	Auburn vs. UCF
Orange Bowl	Clemson vs. Alabama
Fiesta Bowl	Oklahoma State vs. NIU
Scroll down for more

As the season comes to an end and the unexpected does happen — Florida State is the No. 1 team in the country, Auburn beats Alabama on a returned field goal with no time remaining — things begin to become less about the projection and more about the on-field performance.

Prove your team is better. The BCS bowls give teams the last chance to do that. Where do these great squads belong when the season ends?

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BCS National Championship Game: Florida State Seminoles (BCS No. 1) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (BCS No. 2)

Comment: When the season plays out like it has, traditional powers like Ohio State and Florida State seem to often take advantage. Sure, if Auburn is to win the SEC next weekend they’ll feel like the BCS was created specifically to leave the Tigers out, having already been left cold in 2004. For now it seems like these two teams — save for the conference title games they’re still yet to play — have done all they can to earn these spots.

Rose Bowl: Stanford Cardinal (Pac-12 champion) vs. Michigan State Spartans (At-large selection)

Comment: With Ohio State BCS title game bound, the Rose Bowl would normally look to the Big Ten’s roster of highly ranked teams for a replacement. The problem, especially after Wisconsin dropped its best shot at securing a at-large bid against Penn State, is that there aren’t many of those around this year. Michigan State has a shot to remain in at-large contention, but they’ll have to make a strong statement against Ohio State in the conference title game to keep these hopes alive and stay in the top 14 at season’s end if they lose.

Sugar Bowl: Auburn Tigers (SEC champion) vs. UCF Knights (AAC champion)

Comment: Amazing to see the ‘SEC champ’ title go next to the Sugar Bowl selection, isn’t it? For years we’ve seen the SEC champion head straight to the BCS title game, no questions asked. Of course, the Sugar Bowl turned around each year and took a replacement pick from the conference to fulfill its regional preference. But if Auburn misses out on the title game, they’re slotted here automatically. And with the second ‘draft’ pick among at-large picks, the Sugar will have to give AAC champ UCF a serious look so as to not select Northern Illinois.

Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers (At-large selection) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (At-large selection)

Comment: Does the Orange Bowl actually have the guts to bypass the ACC? Clemson’s loss to South Carolina might allow the bowl to do that, and select somewhat underwhelming, but powerful, Oregon. The chance to pair the Ducks with Alabama might present itself if ACC champ Florida State is title game bound as expected. But can the Orange Bowl really afford it? For now, a two-loss Tigers team probably gets the choice over two-loss Oregon and once-beaten Baylor.

Fiesta Bowl: Northern Illinois Huskies (At-large selection) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Big 12 champion)

Comment: A Big 12 that has been unpredictable and a whole lot of fun to watch is finally winding down with Oklahoma State holding poll position. All the Cowboys need to do is top Oklahoma in Bedlam next weekend to grab this spot. Though facing Northern Illinois might not be the reward the Cowboys are looking for, the Huskies have played a strong followup season after making a BCS bowl last year and a win next week all but assures them of a return trip.

Projected BCS Standings: BCS Becoming More Clear in Sixth Standings of 2013

A week after very nearly knocking off Ohio State from its perch at No. 3, Baylor falls by the wayside with a loss to Oklahoma State. Bad news for the Bears, and good news for the Buckeyes, which can slide comfortably into the No. 3 spot knowing they’re without equal when it comes to a ‘replacement’ pick for the title game.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Ohio State Buckeyes
4	Auburn Tigers
5	Missouri Tigers
Scroll down for more

Of course, holding those poll positions are Alabama and Florida State, sitting comfortably after a couple of strong wins. After the Buckeyes, however? It’s a mess

Now with more than just a handful of once-beaten teams on the BCS roster, the voters will have some choosing to do. Surprisingly, Oregon no longer counts among the once-beaten after losing to Arizona, but a handful of Tigers, plus many more do still have that one-loss sheen.

Last week’s No. 6, Auburn, likely makes that leap into the top-four, thanking Baylor and Oregon on its way up. After that, Clemson and Missouri will battle it out for No. 5 — that race should be somewhat closer this week than it was last as the voting pieces are placed back to teams somewhat haphazardly.

Oklahoma State and Stanford will in the discussion, too, thanking Texas A&M for not making their lives quite as difficult as they could be.

Oh, and Ohio State could finally get some Big Ten company in the top-12 with the emergence of Michigan State, mostly moving up because other teams are getting out of the way, fast.

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Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Six (November 24th)

Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Ohio State Buckeyes
4	Auburn Tigers
5	Missouri Tigers
6	Clemson Tigers
7	Oklahoma State Cowboys
8	Stanford Cardinal
9	Baylor Bears
10	South Carolina Gamecocks
11	Oregon Ducks
12	Michigan State Spartans

Projected BCS Standings: Baylor Can Make Its Move In Fifth BCS Standings of 2013

Funny how one week’s marquee victory can mean far less given the next weekend’s results. Stanford, a one-loss team that seemingly had it all — an early loss, a big win over a conference rival and top-10 team, and a high BCS ranking above undefeated teams — was unable to hold off USC at the Coliseum, and sees its already slim BCS title hopes falter.

Projected BCS Rankings
Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Baylor Bears
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Oregon Ducks
Scroll down for more

Though the Stanford loss is intriguing, especially given the way the Pac-12 could resolve itself this season, the real drama will come at the No. 3 spot.

Baylor will finally see its odd stalling behind a one-loss teams come to an end and will move up. But how far? Can the Bears take the No. 3 spot?

The debate is now front and center. Is Baylor or Ohio State the best replacement pick for a national title game should Alabama or Florida State lose?

The fascinating thing is this — with Stanford’s loss, a lot of computer support becomes readily available for Baylor. As does human poll support. Some team is going to have to pick up those pieces and Ohio State chose the wrong weekend to win ugly against Illinois.

Much of that voter confidence will go Baylor’s way, especially after the Bears posted more than 60 points against formerly hot Texas Tech. And, Baylor already had some computer ground left to make up. This might be the weekend the Bears do it.

So can Baylor take No. 3? We’ll say yes.

Also, added bonus — four top teams, all undefeated? Sounds like a ringing endorsement for the College Football Playoff, right?

The one-loss squads with something to prove, including Oregon and Auburn, will come next. Don’t be surprised to see Auburn make a run at the No. 5 spot, which we’re projecting will be filled by Oregon. Though the Tigers might come up a bit short, a win over high competition like Georgia is likely to net Auburn some ground. Plus, with the ranks of the truly elite teams dwindling, now is the time to take a look at the broader picture

Clemson and Missouri, along with Stanford, will likely make up the rest of the top nine, as last week’s No. 10 South Carolina trailed significantly in its hope to breaking into the top 10.

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Remember, we’ll be here to take you through all of it, starting with tomorrow’s releases of the human polls, computer rankings and BCS. Follow along all day @BCSKnowHow and here to stay up to the second with projections, mathematical breakdowns of the computers, human polls and everything in between. Then follow along this week as we break down scenarios and implications.

Here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week Five (November 17th)

Rank	Team
1	Alabama Crimson Tide
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Baylor Bears
4	Ohio State Buckeyes
5	Oregon Ducks
6	Auburn Tigers
7	Clemson Tigers
8	Missouri Tigers
9	Stanford Cardinal
10	South Carolina Gamecocks
11	Texas A&M Aggies
12	Oklahoma State Cowboys