Projected BCS Standings: Boise State to Start Atop First BCS Rankings of 2010

Update: The first BCS standings have been released. Take a look HERE.

And you thought last week was chaotic.

Just one week removed from seeing an Alabama team we had grown used to seeing at No. 1 go down, the weekend that will see the season’s first BCS standings was even more unpredictable, and led us into what should be a very interesting BCS portion of the college football season.

First we got a surprise from a previously discounted Texas squad when they shocked a previously undefeated and vaunted Nebraska squad, all while an particularly non-SEC offensive outburst was happening in the marquee SEC matchup of the weekend between Auburn and Arkansas.

Auburn would eventually pull out a C-USA-style victory, 62-43, and have begun to look like the class of the SEC while LSU struggled to separate themselves from FCS McNeese State in a 32-10 victory.

As day turned into night, things got even more interesting.

An unusual night start for the marquee Big Ten matchup of the week between Ohio State and Wisconsin was the stage for what would turn out to be another shocking result.

Seemingly gifted an easy route to the BCS National Championship Game and the No. 1 spot in the nation after Alabama took their tumble last weekend, Ohio State was unable to hang with Wisconsin and fell to the Badgers 31-18.

While that was happening, South Carolina, who unseated Alabama last weekend and looked like a shoe-in for at least the BCS top-12 tomorrow, choked away a victory against Kentucky and will suffer greatly in both the SEC East race and in the BCS standings come tomorrow.

So what can we expect when the first BCS standings of the season come out tomorrow night?

In last week’s simulated BCS rankings, using both the Harris and Coaches’ Poll along with five of the six computers, Boise State was a surprisingly convincing No. 1 and there is no reason to believe that they won’t be there again when the BCS rankings come out tomorrow after they had no trouble with San Jose State.

Just behind them last week was Oregon who although idle will not see its BCS stock hurt very much by its time on the couch after TCU, LSU and Oklahoma all played less than stellar opponents.

If the Ducks were to be hurt, it would have been in the computer and none of those teams directly trailing Oregon last week were in any position to gain ground with the machines.

The Ducks will likely be No. 1 in the human polls come tomorrow, but with Boise State right on its heels as a likely second team on most ballots, it won’t be enough to give them the No. 1 BCS spot tomorrow.

Auburn may have been your big winner this weekend, as a very strong and well respected Arkansas team will prove very valuable in both the computers and the human elements.

Expect Auburn to have a very considerable boost in all three components tomorrow, which will translate into a nice bump in tomorrow’s BCS rankings.

Ohio State will see a fate similar to what the Crimson Tide faced last weekend, and will fall towards the bottom of the BCS top ten. On the flip side, Wisconsin will see themselves reinserted into the national discussion along with Michigan State.

So, here’s what the BCS standings will likely look like when they are released tomorrow night, without any polling information.

Projected BCS Standings – BCS Week One (October 17th)

Rank Team
1 Boise State Broncos
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Oklahoma Sooners
4 TCU Horned Frogs
5 Auburn Tigers
6 LSU Tigers
7 Michigan State Spartans
8 Ohio State Buckeyes
9 Alabama Crimson Tide
10 Utah Utes
11 Nebraska Cornhuskers
12 Wisconsin Badgers

12 thoughts on “Projected BCS Standings: Boise State to Start Atop First BCS Rankings of 2010

  1. So the top four is comprised of Boise State and three teams the Broncos have beaten in high-profile matchups in recent years: Oregon twice, home and away the last two years, Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, and TCU in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl.

    Notably, Oregon’s unstoppable offense was held to one touchdown and didn’t get a first down against the Broncos until halfway through the 3rd quarter, while TCU converted only one out of 13 third downs and was intercepted three times. The Broncs ain’t all offense.

  2. i’ve kinda got to agree with gary, but when was the last time they beat my boys at #5 the Auburn Tigers led by soon-to-be Heisman Trophy winner Cameron Newton. WAR DAMN EAGLE!!!!!

  3. Boise St @ #1 is a joke, unless every BIG 6 Conference champs have atleast 2 losses, there is no way a non-BCS conf. team play for the BCS Champ. I don’t see how Ohio State would stay ahead of Alabama. 1.Oregon 2. Boise St 3. Oklahoma 4. Tcu 5. Auburn 6. Bama 7. Lsu 8. Mich St 9. Ohio St 10. Utah

  4. Well stated, Gary.

    And speaking of proxy wins, Wisconsin, which just trounced #1 Ohio State while absolutely manhandling them, found themselves losing 14 – 0 vs. San Jose State earlier in the season and had to fight hard the entire 2nd half to pull out a modest 13 pt. victory.

    Meanwhile, Boise State crushed San Jose State in the 1st half, 38 – 0, and then sent in its girls Lacrosse squad in to mop up the mess in the second half while the Bronco’s starters sat on the bench laughing it up and sending text messages.

    And when you look at Boise State’s stats, you need to take into account that they’ve earned those stellar numbers while playing only the 1st half in 80% of their games thus far.

    Anyone who doesn’t see that Boise State deserves to hold the #1 spot is either just plain bias or is all hopped on goof balls.

  5. If Boise State doesn’t bench its starters at the end of the first half, the final score in the San Jose State game is 96 – 0.

    But Perersen doesn’t believe in running up points and is smart enough to keep his best players healthy rather than risk injury during 2nd half play that is all but meaningless.

    But his football team is incredible. If Boise State gets its special teams tightened up, uses their starting kicker for kickoffs (a player who can actually kick the ball past the opponent’s 20 yard line so the coverage can catch up), works on their pass coverage, particularly where the linebackers are concerned on over the middle and crossing routes, matures enough to exercise some emotional poise while showing a little more discipline as not to commit some of the senseless penalties they’ve committed throughout the season, particularly in their win over Virgina Tech (which should have been 45 – 7 otherwise), no team in any conference will be able to hang with the Broncos. Not even close.

    Barring a couple of squeaks that need a little oil, this is by far the best Boise State team to ever grace the field.

    I’m actually hoping that they don’t get the #1 spot as it might cause the team to think it has arrived, which could prevent the coaches and players from seeing that there is still much work to be done if you intend to become one of the greatest college football teams in NCAA history.

    The #2 spot would motivate them all to continue to work on improving, particularly in the areas mentioned above.

    All in all, though, and in spite of its few weakness, Boise State is the best college team in the country.

    In fact, it’s not even close.

  6. Oregon #1 over Boise State?

    Now there’s the real joke. Talk about an easy schedule; Oregon has played nothing but chumps.

    New Mexico? Portland State? Tennessee? Washington State? California? UCLA? Even Stanford, the win that moved Oregon atop Boise State in the rankings, is an inferior team and has a cake-walk schedule.

    Oregon is going to have its hands full v. Oregon State, a team the Broncos handled easily earlier this season.

    The Broncos would defeat Oregon by 4 touchdowns — and that would be after benching its starters in the 3rd quarter.

    How many more times, and in how many more ways does Boise State has to prove itself?

    Perhaps Petersen should start running up 100 pts a game to silence all the nay-sayers?

    No, wait, then they’d start criticizing him for it while calling him and his awesome team a bunch of roughnecks and bullies.

  7. MICHIGAN STATE IS THE REAL DEAL! THEY ARE THE MOST BALANCED TEAM IN THE TOP 10 AND THEY HAVE AN INCREDIBLE TRIO AT RUNNING BACK. WILL THEY GET A SHOT WHEN THEY RUN THE TABLE? OR WILL FRAUDS LIKE OREGON, TCU, AND BOISE BE GIVEN A CHANCE TO HAVE THEIR HEADS HANDED TO THEM BY OKLAHOMA?

  8. That’s exactly what they said about Alabama, and then about Ohio State after Alabama went down, and after last week’s performance, about Nebraska being expected to dominate…

    And while Michigan State, Oklahoma and Auburn are all proving themselves to be strong teams and serious contenders, none have a schedule that would be considered “tough,” and none have yet earned the right to be #1 over Boise State, a proven world-class football team and as far from a fraud as it gets, nor have any of them proven themselves more deserving than Boise State, in by proxy wins alone.

    Boise State has proven it is a championship caliber team a hundred times over and I seriously doubt anyone would be surprised to see them do it again this year.

  9. “”Notably, Oregon’s unstoppable offense was held to one touchdown and didn’t get a first down against the Broncos until halfway through the 3rd quarter””

    I love how people use this argument like it has bearing on the 2010 season.

  10. “”New Mexico? Portland State? Tennessee? Washington State? California? UCLA? Even Stanford, the win that moved Oregon atop Boise State in the rankings, is an inferior team and has a cake-walk schedule.””

    Wyoming? New Mexico State? Toledo? San Jose State? LA-Tech? Idaho? Fresno State? Utah State?

    Throwing stones in a glass house is a dangerous thing.

    FWIW: UCLA crushed Texas at home, who just knocked off Nebraska.

    Also Tennessee will have played FOUR top 12 teams in their first seven games after Alabama next week. That’s more Top 12 teams than Boise State has played in the last 4 seasons combined.

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