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One final week before the first BCS standings means just one final set of projected BCS standings, this week coming straight from the most reliable source for simulating the formula, the BCS Guru.

This time, Florida makes the huge jump to No. 1 that everyone had expected them to already hold at the beginning of the season. This jump was helped by their victory over LSU, whose came in at No. 2 on last week’s projected BCS, and also held the No. 1 spot in all available BCS computer rankings.

Alabama, likely on the strength of their inter conference rivalry game against Ole Miss, stays ahead Texas to claim the number two spot, and Virginia Tech, already considered the best one loss team in the nation, also stays ahead of the Longhorns at No. 3.

Texas does hold steady at No. 4, followed by Boise State, BCS-buster extraordinaire.

Two one-loss teams, USC and LSU come in at No. 6 and No. 7 respectively, as both still have a legitimate shot of making some noise late in the season if both are able to win out.

Three teams which will likely need a little help from the top follow the Tigers, Ohio State, Cincinnati and Iowa will probably need a fair few teams to lose ahead of them to make it into the national title picture.

TCU and Miami (FL) round out the top twelve of the projected BCS standings, and will need more than a little help from here on out.

Next week brings the arrival of the first real BCS standings, but without further ado, the current projected BCS standings, as provided by the BCS Guru, and available at BCS Know How, with a 94.166 percent confidence:

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It’s hard to tell what Tim Tebow’s performance against LSU meant this Saturday. Tebow was returning from a concussion suffered two weeks ago, and was obviously a little hobbled by the off time, throwing wobbly balls to his receivers and not gaining a very high per rush average. But no matter his statistical output, Tebow’s performance was enough to get the Gators by the Tigers in Baton Rouge this weekend, and that will count for a lot, especially considering the circumstances from which Tebow returned to lead his Gators to the victory.

Colt McCoy

A very accurate performance is to be expected from McCoy, but his numbers don’t tell the whole story. McCoy’s performance was severely second half heavy, as the Texas attack did not look as strong as it has while playing from behind during the first half against Colorado. McCoy’s 265-yard output was his second worst statistical line of the season; only his performance against Texas Tech was less dominant. But McCoy’s Heisman hopes were not hurt too much, as very few contenders had good weeks.

Jacory Harris

Harris did not need to play the second half of his Hurricane’s huge blowout of Florida A&M on Saturday, so his statistics may belie his performance, but his 217 yards and two touchdowns are enough to keep him on this board. The rest of Miami’s schedule doesn’t even come close in toughness to the road Miami has already taken, so Harris may get a good shot to boost his Heisman stock with good performances in conference match ups with the weaker side of the ACC.

Jimmy Clausen

Jahvid Best’s spot will be taken this week by Jimmy Clausen, whose numbers outshine Best’s numbers, even though neither played this past weekend. In short, Clausen has had a stellar season for the Fighting Irish, but could quickly lose this spot with a loss and subpar performance against USC, a match up which will likely define both Clausen’s and the Irish’s season.

Todd Reesing

Reesing absolutely lit Iowa State’s defense on fire this past weekend, continuing to strengthen his Heisman hopes, which seemed slim at best at season’s start. His four TD, 442-yard effort in the Jayhawks’ 41-36 victory was the performance of the weekend among BCS Know How Heisman hopefuls, and will solidify his place on the board for quite some time. The meat of Kansas’s Big 12 schedule is ahead, and will be a true test for the senior quarterback.

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The weekend shaped up to be one filled with tight contests and big scores, but instead what we got was a low-scoring, minimal tension weekend that underwhelmed most college football fans.

The highlight of the weekend’s slate was Florida vs. LSU, a matchup between two of the top teams in the country, and two SEC rivals. The return of Tim Tebow was supposed to amp up the offense and increase the urgency of the game, but in the end, a 13-3 Gator victory seemed telegraphed from the beginning.

True, this will likely knock LSU out of the national title hunt for a while, but the Tigers will get the chance to rebound with victories over Alabama, and then a rematch with the Gators in the SEC Championship Game, if they get that far.

For the Gators, their odd displacement at No. 3 on the projected BCS standings will no longer be an issue, as the victory over LSU, who held the number one spot in all five computer rankings, will boost the Gator’s computer score.

Alabama also survived a SEC matchup with Ole Miss, easily dispatching of the Rebels 22-3 in a defense heavy contest. The Crimson Tide will duel with the Gators for the final number one ranking of the projected BCS, as after next week’s slate of games, the fully functional BCS standings will finally arrive.

Among those who also won on this favorites day; Iowa, who won in thrilling fashion, holding off yet another Tate Forcier comeback attempt in their Big 10 match up; Texas, who fended off a halftime deficit to take control in their victory over Colorado; and Virginia Tech, who continue to make their case as the best one-loss team in the nation.

Unbeatens remained unbeaten, most favorites won out, and the college football world now can only wait for the home stretch of eight weeks, all of which have the BCS to credit for their intensity and drama.

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Updates will come tomorrow after the human polls are released and the projected BCS will be more clear.

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Yes, sure the “BCS Know How Projected BCS Standings” were fun, taking a good guess at what I thought they might be. And truthfully I wasn’t far off. Sure I knew that Florida surprisingly enough wouldn’t be #1 if the BCS was released, but I left them there because of their overwhelming domination of the human element of the BCS.

Well, now that five of the six computer rankings have been released, the reality has set in. The computers just do not love Florida. At all.

Yet with the addition of the fifth computer rankings, who ALL claim LSU as the best team in the nation, and seem to overwhelmingly prefer Alabama and Virginia Tech over Florida as well, I am forced to change it to a more realistic calculation.

The new standings can be found below and at BCSKnowHow.com and all pages on the site.

It’s very surprising to see three SEC teams lined up all in a row at numbers one through three, but that just proves the strength in opinion while simultaneously proving the SEC’s strength in numbers.

The SEC has been and continues to be a dominant conference, and yes, after this weekend, the rankings are sure to change, but for now the Southeastern Conference ain’t nothing to mess with.

Without any further ado. The projected BCS rankings, within a 94.166% confidence:

Tebow and the Gators had the week off, and it could not have come at a better time for the nationally adored Tim Tebow. After being knocked out of the game against Kentucky with a severe concussion, Tebow would not have been able to participate in a game held this weekend. Instead, Tebow got a chance to rest, and now may be able to compete in the Gator’s match up with LSU, a game that holds not only SEC importance, but national importance as well.

Colt McCoy

McCoy and the Longhorns had the week off, but after his upcoming match up with Colorado, the road will get tough for McCoy and his team. The Longhorns will face three straight ranked opponents, and only one, Oklahoma, will not be on the road. In fact, the Red River shootout will be held at neutral field, Fair Park, and therefore will not have a ranked team visit Austin until Kansas visits in late November. These few games may be McCoy’s best shot to strengthen his Heisman prospects, and possibly vault him into favorite status.

Jacory Harris

Harris’s effort wasn’t all fun and games against Oklahoma, he did struggle, but Harris’s effort was enough to get the win for the Hurricanes, and reassure the nation that “The U” is back, and for that, Harris stays on the Heisman Watch board for one more week at least. Harris threw for a rather ordinary 202-yards, but his three touchdowns were all the Hurricanes needed to beat the Sooners in the weekend’s biggest non-conference match up, and for that, Harris’s Heisman stock is sure to rise.

Jahvid Best

Best, after being the Heisman frontrunner for two consecutive weeks, now finds himself falling off Heisman boards all over the country, and is in danger of falling of the BCS Know How Heisman Watch as well. After 55 yards against Oregon was not enough to impress any Heisman voter, Best followed it up with a paltry 32-yard rushing performance in the Golden Bears important in-conference battle with USC. Cal’s performance the past two weeks also hinder Best’s Heisman hopes. He and the Golden Bears will need to step up to their remaining Pac-10 schedule if Best is to make a trip to NYC in Decemeber.

Todd Reesing

Reesing had another stellar game against Southern Mississippi this weekend, strengthening his claim to be part of the Heisman conversation. Equally important, his Kansas Jayhawks remained undefeated, and because team performance is very important to Heisman legitimacy, Reesing’s Heisman stock is certainly rising. In leading his team to a 35-28 victory, Reesing passed for more than 300 yards for the second time this season, and added three TDs to his season total, against just one pick. The real tests for Reesing are ahead, though, as the Jayhawks prepare for their tough upcoming Big 12 schdule, which includes match ups against Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska and Missouri.

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Certainly, Week 5 had its fair share of exciting match ups featuring conference and non-conference foes battling it out as the first BCS rankings loom ever closer, but for a change of place, not many upsets took place on a ripe weekend for one.

The biggest of course, would be Miami (FL) taking advantage of an obviously weakened Oklahoma team in a non-conference battle, and beating them 21-20. The Hurricanes had just come off a loss to Virginia Tech, which if they had won, would have set them up nicely for a run for the national title, but this huge victory over the Sooners may give them hope yet.

Ranked match ups only come so often, especially in conference, but if you want to make a bet where one might happen, the SEC is probably the place to look.

Georgia and LSU took the field in between the hedges to make a case for complete SEC supremacy among the six BCS conferences. In pulling out the late win, it is possible that LSU has finally legitimized the fact that three of the top four teams in all polls are SEC combatants.

The projected BCS won’t look much different this weekend, we’ll give you that much, but its likely that among the jumpers will be Miami, and maybe even a small boost for LSU, but enough for a position increase? Maybe, maybe not, we’ll have to see what the human polls give us in the morning.

Maybe the biggest upset of the night came from the mid-major world, where Houston, one of three mid-majors believed to still have a shot at a BCS-bust, fell in an absolute shootout in Texas, falling to UTEP 58-41.

That leaves just TCU and Boise State as possibly BCS busters, and the road looks bright for both, with forgiving schedules, making it quite possible that we will finally see a year with two BCS busters in the ten BCS bowl spots. Who knows?

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It’s a great thing for a college football fan. On any given Saturday, anything can happen. Or at least that’s what ESPN wants you to think.

Evidentially, it looks like that’s exactly what we’ve got this season, as the top teams continue to fall, and fall hard to unranked and out of the blue opponents putting on clinics to beat the teams the “experts” had deemed worthy of top national rankings.

This weekend’s slate didn’t seem ripe for any major upsets, but after Thursday came and went with another one of the big upsets we’ve already come to expect from this season, the tone was set for even more on Saturday.

First to fall was #6 Cal. And fall they did to an Oregon team that had looked listless against Boise State just a few Thursdays ago. Then it was #5 Penn State, falling to Iowa as a top five team for the second straight season in a row, making it six top six teams to lose to unranked opponents on the season, approaching 2007-style numbers just four short weeks into the season and still three long weeks from the first BCS standings.

Speaking of, the projected BCS standings definitely took a hit this weekend, with four of the top eight teams losing, including Miami (FL) who lost to Virginia Tech in a match up of ranked teams. But this week will mark the first appearance of the Harris Poll, one-third of the final BCS calculation, bringing us ever closer to a fully-projectable BCS standings. Four of the six computers are also up and running, making us 89% of the way to a full BCS calculation.

Making major moves this week will be all the teams that lost, yes, but the losses leave four very open spots for new teams, which this week will likely include Virginia Tech, Oklahoma and (cue the BCS detractors) USC. Yes USC, who just two weekends ago lost to a very unranked Washington team would likely enter as #8 in a BCS standings if released this morning.

The Harris Poll was released for the first time this weekend, making BCS projecting a little easier, and results were surprising at best. The top three remained the same, as the Harris had little to say different than the Coaches’, but the shake up is strong after than. LSU, Virginia Tech and Boise State all move up, taking the vacated spots of Penn State, Ole Miss and Cal. Surprisingly, or not surprisingly depending on your rooting affiliation, one loss Oklahoma and USC both reenter the top 10 very soon after their respective losses.

The BCS is certainly shaping as we approach its October 18th release date, but in the intervening weeks, even more shake up is certainly a possibility.

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No one ever wants to see a player go down due to injury, friend or opponent. But what the entire nation definitely did not want to see was college football’s star pupil, Tim Tebow, go down due to a concussion suffered against Kentucky on Saturday. Having already torn apart the Wildcat defense for two rushing and one passing TD, Tebow dropped back to pass, but was hit hard from a rusher from the outside. The tackle was not the worst part, though, as Tebow’s head hit a lineman’s thigh as he went down, and the Gator QB suffered a severe concussion. Tebow’s Heisman hopes were not dashed, as he did put up good numbers before the hit, but if he is to miss Florida’s next game, which isn’t until two weekends from now, his hopes may be hurt.

Colt McCoy

Following a less than spectacular performance last weekend against Texas Tech, McCoy reinvigorated his Heisman hopes with a quintessential Colt McCoy passing day. Passing at an 80% completion rate, McCoy picked apart the Miners’ defensive attack and passed for three TDs against just one pick. Combined with his 286-yards passing, McCoy put in his best performance since opening weekend against Louisiana-Monroe.

Jacory Harris

Just as fast as Harris entered the Heisman discussion, his numbers against Virginia Tech in the Hurricane’s devastating loss on Saturday did a good number on his hopes, and may have just removed him from the discussion just as quickly. Harris made only nine completions in 25 attempts for just 150 yards with no TDs and an interception. Harris led a seemingly ineffective Hurricane attack that was only able to score seven points and looked suddenly weak against a strong Hokie defense, just one week after making a national statement against Georgia Tech. Harris’s hopes may now rest upon his performance against Oklahoma next weekend.

Jahvid Best

No touchdowns for the Bears meant no touchdowns for the Heisman frontrunner on Saturday, and Best’s Heisman hopes may have taken a big hit. Best had just 52 yards at halftime during Cal’s embarrassing loss to Oregon, 42-3, and finished with just three more yards rushing, 55 in total. Best didn’t contribute in the passing game either, catching just two balls for 14 yards. All around the day was a tough one for the Bears and Best, and will both need to step it up in order to regain the national attention they had received just a weekend ago.

Todd Reesing

BCS Know How favorite Todd Reesing takes Terrelle Pryor’s spot this week after Pryor continues to be a non-factor in Ohio State’s offensive attack. Reesing, on the other hand, a Heisman candidate in years past, has reemerged as a viable candidate with his recent resurgance in a very productive Kansas Jayhawk offense. On Saturday, Reesing passed for three TDs for the second straight game, and finished with 331 yards on 30-of-41 passing, including a 62-yard TD strike to start the game against Southern Miss. As Kansas climbs the national rankings, so too does Reesing’s Heisman hopes, look for the QB who is often dwarfed by his lineman to be a factor in the Heisman race for the rest of the season.

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